📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:59:32·⟳ 抓取 15:59:57 +25s·⚡ 决策 08-24 16:02:44 +2m47s·64.0 天前
小米发布3nm自研玄戒O3并确认小米18 Fold九月首发
这是小米自研芯片路线的正面进展，但更像已预热的产品发布和技术展示；缺少可量化收入/利润增量、直接供应链金额和真实可执行报价，因此不下单。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] Xiaomi Unveils 3nm XRING O3, Reportedly First Mobile Chip to Support LPDDR6; Debuts on Xiaomi 18 Fold Xiaomi has…
不做 小米集团（01810.HK）
发布确认偏利好，但已多轮预热且未披露销量、售价、毛利或芯片节省金额；缺少真实行情与可量化短线edge，不做。
不做 台积电（2330.TW）
代工关系是正向读数，但未披露Xring O3订单金额，相对台积电3nm总需求和市值弹性不足以单独交易。
不做 高通（QCOM.US）
小米自研芯片对高通有长期替代压力，但当前只覆盖小米少数设备，未构成明确强空催化。
不做 联发科（2454.TW）
事件没有确认联发科订单流失或收入下修，短线做空证据不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
玄戒O3发布确认小米高端手机自研SoC继续推进，并将首发于9月上市的小米18 Fold；对小米品牌和技术叙事偏利好，对台积电有代工读数，对高通/联发科有弱替代含义。但该事件在6月、8月22日至8月23日已有多轮预热，当前披露没有销量、订单、毛利或代工金额，无法把技术参数穿透成短线可交易的公司盈利弹性，且缺少真实行情验证，综合回避。
消息传播链
- 6月已有报道称Xring O3可能采用台积电3nm并搭载于下一代小米折叠屏，说明核心方向此前已被市场预热。
- 雷军手持疑似小米新折叠屏手机的照片被报道，市场已开始围绕小米折叠屏与玄戒O3预热。
- 小米8月24日14:00玄戒芯片技术发布会已提前公开预告，发布本身不是完全突发。
- 新浪科技报道小米玄戒技术沟通会发布玄戒O3，小米18 Fold将于9月上市并首发搭载。
- IT之家详细披露玄戒O3支持LPDDR6、带宽113.8GB/s、200 TOPS NPU等参数，并确认小米18 Fold与平板9 Pro Max首发搭载。
- Reuters报道小米发布新Xring芯片并称其与台积电合作生产，强化代工链条但未给订单金额。
关键理由
- 小米集团（1810.HK）自研旗舰SoC迭代有助于高端产品差异化，但当前只确认产品首发而非销量或利润增量。
- 台积电（2330.TW）若承接3nm代工属于正向读数，但未披露订单金额，难以相对公司收入和市值量化。
- 对高通（QCOM.US）和联发科（2454.TW）的替代压力仍偏长期，当前不是明确强空催化。
主要风险
- 玄戒O3在6月已有报道指向小米下一代折叠屏搭载，8月22日至23日又有雷军持机和发布会预告，事件新鲜度并非低扩散突发。
- 未能取得指定stock_tools真实报价和event_study结果，不能生成满足执行纪律的ENTER订单。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-15 · 影响 weakens
Xring O3用于下一代小米折叠屏和台积电3nm的核心信息此前已有报道，削弱新鲜度。
检索:Xiaomi XRING O3 Fold already reported June 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-05-22 · 影响 weakens
小米上次Xring O1发布会日股价也曾因缺少关键商业化信息而下跌，提示明牌发布会落地风险。
检索:Xiaomi Xring O1 launch stock dip May 22 2025 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2021-08-02 · 影响 weakens
Google Tensor先例中高通只出现温和短线下跌且公司强调仍会继续合作，说明OEM自研芯片替代不一定构成强空。
检索:Qualcomm Google Tensor stock dip future collaboration statement 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例降低本次小米集团（1810.HK）LONG的置信度和仓位倾向，并排除对高通（QCOM.US）/联发科（2454.TW）的短线强空。
方向:同类自研芯片发布对直接公司偏正面、对第三方SoC供应商偏负面，但多数属于情绪与长期战略读数。
涨幅量级:没有8分以上高相似且锚点干净样本；小米O1预热样本显示可有短线情绪，但发布会落地日也可能因缺少增量而回落。
形态:明牌产品发布存在见光死风险，尤其在未披露订单、售价、销量或利润增量时。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 7/10 1810.HK 2025-05-19 一财报道雷军宣布5月22日发布首款自研手机芯片和首款SUV后，小米港股当日收涨2.7%。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.6% · +2日 +7.5% · +3日 +6.8% · +4日 +4.3% · +5日 +3.9%
⚠未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为小米自研Xring芯片和产品发布预热，但上次还叠加YU7等更大产品周期。
经验:小米自研芯片发布预期可带来短线情绪，但单独芯片信息容易被其它产品催化混杂。 - 相似度 6/10 1810.HK 2025-05-22 The Standard报道小米发布会前因YU7不会公布正式售价及不开预订，股价一度跌3%。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -0.4% · +2日 -0.8% · +3日 -3.9% · +4日 -3.5% · +5日 -3.1%
⚠未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为小米Xring发布会日，但当日股价受YU7不公布价格和预订节奏影响。
经验:发布会明牌落地日若缺少订单、售价或销量增量，容易出现高开低走或被其它失望点压制。 - 相似度 5/10 QCOM.US 2021-08-02 9to5Google报道Google确认Pixel 6使用Tensor后，高通股价短线下跌但幅度不大。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -0.6% · +2日 -0.4% · +3日 -1.4% · +4日 -1.7% · +5日 -1.3%
相似度依据:同为手机OEM改用自研芯片对高通的替代叙事，但Google Pixel体量和小米体量、供应链位置不同。
经验:OEM自研芯片会压制第三方SoC供应商情绪，但若覆盖机型有限，短线冲击通常不构成强空。 - 相似度 4/10 A股半导体链 2023-08-30 Asia Times报道华为Mate60 Pro采用自研CPU后，中国芯片相关股票大涨。 原文 ↗
A股芯片链在华为Mate60/Kirin 9000S消息后的主题反应
相似度依据:同为中国手机厂商自研芯片叙事，但华为Mate60/Kirin 9000S属于制裁突破和国产替代强主题，小米O3由台积电3nm代工，机制弱很多。
经验:只有当事件被市场解读为国产先进制程突破时，A股半导体链才会出现强主题扩散。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,174 字
[News] Xiaomi Unveils 3nm XRING O3, Reportedly First Mobile Chip to Support LPDDR6; Debuts on Xiaomi 18 Fold
Xiaomi has unveiled the long-awaited XRINGO3 on August 24. According to EE Times China and IT Home , the 3nm chip is the world’s first mobile processor to support LPDDR6, delivering speeds of up to 10,667Mbps and memory bandwidth of 113.8GB/s, a 48% increase over the XRING O1.
Jiemien News adds that the Xiaomi 18 Fold will debut with the XRING O3 when it launches in September. The Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max will also use the new chip. Xiaomi, according to IT Home, says the XRING O3 packs 24 billion transistors, 26% more than its predecessor, while its die size comes in at 133mm².
IT Home further explains that Xiaomi launched the XRINGO1 and XRING T1 in May last year. As China’s first flagship SoC built on a 3nm advanced process, the XRINGO1 powers the Xiaomi 15S Pro and two flagship tablets in the Xiaomi Pad 7 series, the report adds.
Key Highlights of XRINGO3
EE Times China reports that the XRING O3 brings major upgrades across its AI, CPU and GPU subsystems. Its NPU has been completely redesigned for Xiaomi’s MiMo on-device AI models, delivering up to 200 TOPS of tensor performance and 3.13 TFLOPS of vector performance, while boosting on-device AI performance by 45%, the report suggests.
The chip also adds two AI acceleration units to the CPU and eight neural-network accelerators to the GPU, further expanding its AI capabilities, EE Times China suggests. Xiaomi has also revamped the chip’s internal architecture to improve power efficiency and responsiveness, achieving a claimed 82ns latency, which it describes as industry-leading.
XRING O100: Xiaomi Unveils 3D-Stacked AI Accelerator
XRING O3 was not the only major launch at Xiaomi’s chip briefing. According to Jiemien News , Xiaomi also unveiled the XRINGO100, an AI accelerator designed for large AI models. Data shared by Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun on Weibo shows that the chip uses 6nm 3D wafer-on-wafer (WoW) stacking and delivers bandwidth of up to 1.22TB/s.
EE Times China reports that XRINGO100 is the industry’s first 6nm WoW 3D advanced packaging solution, using hybrid bonding to achieve a 1.4µm bonding pitch. Its on-device inference speed reaches up to 330 tokens/s, while its bandwidth is said to be 16 times that of conventional flagship smartphones.
Xiaomi also introduced the XRING D100, which IT Home describes as China’s first 3nm high-compute AI chip for intelligent driving. The chip, according to the report, has completed development and is slated for commercial deployment next year.
The D100 combines a 20-core high-performance CPU with a 16-core NPU and supports up to 160GB of unified memory, enough to locally run AI models with up to 200 billion parameters, according to IT Home.
Read more
[News] Huawei, Xiaomi Reportedly Plan HBM-Inspired LLW DRAM for 2H27 to Boost On-Device AI in Smartphones
[News] China’s Chip Push Extends Beyond State Efforts, From Xiaomi’s 3nm SoC to NIO Autonomous Driving Chips
(Photo credit: Le Jun’s Weibo)
Please note that this article cites information from EE Times China , IT Home , Jiemien News , and Lei Jun on Weibo .
Xiaomi has unveiled the long-awaited XRINGO3 on August 24. According to EE Times China and IT Home , the 3nm chip is the world’s first mobile processor to support LPDDR6, delivering speeds of up to 10,667Mbps and memory bandwidth of 113.8GB/s, a 48% increase over the XRING O1.
Jiemien News adds that the Xiaomi 18 Fold will debut with the XRING O3 when it launches in September. The Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max will also use the new chip. Xiaomi, according to IT Home, says the XRING O3 packs 24 billion transistors, 26% more than its predecessor, while its die size comes in at 133mm².
IT Home further explains that Xiaomi launched the XRINGO1 and XRING T1 in May last year. As China’s first flagship SoC built on a 3nm advanced process, the XRINGO1 powers the Xiaomi 15S Pro and two flagship tablets in the Xiaomi Pad 7 series, the report adds.
Key Highlights of XRINGO3
EE Times China reports that the XRING O3 brings major upgrades across its AI, CPU and GPU subsystems. Its NPU has been completely redesigned for Xiaomi’s MiMo on-device AI models, delivering up to 200 TOPS of tensor performance and 3.13 TFLOPS of vector performance, while boosting on-device AI performance by 45%, the report suggests.
The chip also adds two AI acceleration units to the CPU and eight neural-network accelerators to the GPU, further expanding its AI capabilities, EE Times China suggests. Xiaomi has also revamped the chip’s internal architecture to improve power efficiency and responsiveness, achieving a claimed 82ns latency, which it describes as industry-leading.
XRING O100: Xiaomi Unveils 3D-Stacked AI Accelerator
XRING O3 was not the only major launch at Xiaomi’s chip briefing. According to Jiemien News , Xiaomi also unveiled the XRINGO100, an AI accelerator designed for large AI models. Data shared by Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun on Weibo shows that the chip uses 6nm 3D wafer-on-wafer (WoW) stacking and delivers bandwidth of up to 1.22TB/s.
EE Times China reports that XRINGO100 is the industry’s first 6nm WoW 3D advanced packaging solution, using hybrid bonding to achieve a 1.4µm bonding pitch. Its on-device inference speed reaches up to 330 tokens/s, while its bandwidth is said to be 16 times that of conventional flagship smartphones.
Xiaomi also introduced the XRING D100, which IT Home describes as China’s first 3nm high-compute AI chip for intelligent driving. The chip, according to the report, has completed development and is slated for commercial deployment next year.
The D100 combines a 20-core high-performance CPU with a 16-core NPU and supports up to 160GB of unified memory, enough to locally run AI models with up to 200 billion parameters, according to IT Home.
Read more
[News] Huawei, Xiaomi Reportedly Plan HBM-Inspired LLW DRAM for 2H27 to Boost On-Device AI in Smartphones
[News] China’s Chip Push Extends Beyond State Efforts, From Xiaomi’s 3nm SoC to NIO Autonomous Driving Chips
(Photo credit: Le Jun’s Weibo)
Please note that this article cites information from EE Times China , IT Home , Jiemien News , and Lei Jun on Weibo .
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