📊 TrendForceTrendForceDoubao · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 08:30:15·⟳ 抓取 08:30:41 +26s·⚡ 决策 10-14 08:32:21 +1m40s·13.8 天前
粤芯半导体创业板上市首日暴涨275%,TrendForce次日回顾其募资75亿元扩产特色工艺与硅光
核心催化(IPO挂牌)在10月13日已兑现,首日开盘即+274.69%、市值约1295亿元,TrendForce次日报道仅为行业媒体回顾、无新增事实;公司仍巨额亏损且2029年前不盈利,次新股高位追多无正期望,亦无强做空催化(新股高换手、融券与情绪不确定),故不做。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] CanSemi Debuts on ChiNext, Raising CNY 7.5 Billion to Expand Specialty Processes and Silicon Photonics CanSemi T…
不做 粤芯半导体(301660.SZ)
IPO首日已开盘暴涨274.69%、市值约1295亿,TrendForce次日文章为回顾性报道、无新增事实,利好已充分price-in;公司持续巨额亏损、毛利率为负、2029年前不盈利,次新股高位追多风险收益极差;亦无强做空新催化(仅为高估值与亏损、非突发利空),不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
粤芯半导体上市首日已暴涨275%,本信号是次日的回顾性行业报道、无新增信息;高估值叠加持续巨额亏损与远期才投产的硅光/扩产故事,追高风险收益严重不对称,回避。
消息传播链
- 节点
- 节点
关键理由
- 挂牌利好已在首日开盘一次性重定价(+274.69%、市值约1295亿),次日报道不含新增订单、指引或技术突破
主要风险
- 次新股情绪可能继续推高股价,但属资金博弈而非基本面edge,不构成可纪律化交易的理由
- 公司毛利率仍为-24.46%、累计未弥补亏损约100.8亿元,高估值下基本面证伪与回撤风险大
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-14 · 影响 invalidates
2023-2025年净亏19.17/22.53/23.46亿元,2026H1再亏超10亿元,累计未弥补亏损约100.8亿元,毛利率仍为-24.46%,预计2029年前不盈利
检索:粤芯半导体 亏损 毛利率 盈利 2029 风险 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:本信号在决策前已可凭一手公告与首日+275%的定价事实判定无edge,无需用新股上市先例校准幅度;A股新股次交易日高位追涨普遍依赖情绪且T+1止损受限,不改变回避结论。
工具执行结果 · 成功 2 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 12 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`cansemi technology chinext debut october 13 2026 ipo 12.01 | cansemi 粤芯 创业板 上市 ipo 75亿 硅光 | 粤芯半导体 上市 硅光子 cpo 募资`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,133 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:粤芯半导体 CanSemi 创业板 股票代码 上市 首日;API SearchType:web)
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,811 字
[News] CanSemi Debuts on ChiNext, Raising CNY 7.5 Billion to Expand Specialty Processes and Silicon Photonics
CanSemi Technology Inc. made its debut on the ChiNext board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on October 13, with an IPO price of CNY 12.01 per share. Shares opened at CNY 45, up 274.69%, valuing the company at approximately CNY 129.5 billion.
Founded in 2017 in Guangzhou’s Huangpu District, CanSemi is Guangdong Province’s first 12-inch wafer foundry to achieve mass production. Its listing adds another player to China’s A-share foundry sector, strengthening its position in specialty processes and optoelectronic integration.
Expanding 12-Inch Capacity and Specialty Processes
CanSemi specializes in 12-inch wafer foundry services and specialty process solutions. Its technology portfolio spans process nodes from 180nm to 55nm, covering analog, high-voltage, CMOS image sensor (CIS), bipolar-CMOS-DMOS (BCD), embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM), MOSFET, IGBT, and silicon photonics technologies.
Its products serve applications including power management, display drivers, image sensors, microcontrollers (MCUs), power devices, and optical communications, with end markets spanning automotive electronics, industrial control, consumer electronics, and optical modules.
CanSemi operates two 12-inch fabs with a combined planned monthly capacity of 80,000 wafers. As of 2025, monthly capacity had reached 63,300 wafers, with utilization at 96.38%. Construction of its Phase IV project began in January 2026, adding a planned monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers. The project is expected to enter production by late 2029, bringing total planned monthly capacity to 120,000 wafers.
As of the end of 2025, CanSemi had developed more than 200 customers, including nearly 40 publicly listed companies in China and overseas. Eight of China’s top 10 listed analog chipmakers have established partnerships with the company.
Silicon Photonics and Optical Integration in Focus
Beyond analog and power semiconductor manufacturing, CanSemi is advancing silicon photonics and optoelectronic integration. Its 90nm silicon photonics platform has accumulated more than 7,000 wafer starts, supporting 400G, 800G, and 1.6T pluggable optical modules. The company is also working to introduce 3.2T near-packaged optics (NPO) products.
Meanwhile, CanSemi is developing 65nm silicon photonics and processes related to co-packaged optics (CPO). Its R&D project for silicon photonics and optoelectronic co-packaging based on 65nm logic technology carries a total investment of CNY 770 million, with CNY 730 million earmarked from IPO proceeds.
The project aims to develop process platforms for optical modules of 800G and above, optical-engine integration for CPO, and microring modulator processes for optical input/output interfaces.
CNY 7.5 Billion IPO Proceeds to Support Growth
CanSemi plans to raise CNY 7.5 billion through its IPO. Proceeds will fund its Phase III 12-inch analog specialty-process production line, specialty-process technology R&D, and working capital.
Revenue rose from CNY 1.044 billion in 2023 to CNY 1.681 billion in 2024 and CNY 2.582 billion in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 57.3%. First-half 2026 revenue reached CNY 1.777 billion, up 68.76% year on year. Gross margin improved to -24.46% from -54.70% a year earlier.
However, CanSemi remains unprofitable. Net losses attributable to shareholders totaled CNY 1.917 billion in 2023, CNY 2.253 billion in 2024, and CNY 2.346 billion in 2025.
The company also reported a net loss of more than CNY 1 billion in the first half of 2026. Accumulated uncovered losses stood at approximately CNY 10.081 billion at the end of 2025, and CanSemi expects to achieve consolidated profitability no earlier than 2029.
(Photo credit: CamSemi)
CanSemi Technology Inc. made its debut on the ChiNext board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on October 13, with an IPO price of CNY 12.01 per share. Shares opened at CNY 45, up 274.69%, valuing the company at approximately CNY 129.5 billion.
Founded in 2017 in Guangzhou’s Huangpu District, CanSemi is Guangdong Province’s first 12-inch wafer foundry to achieve mass production. Its listing adds another player to China’s A-share foundry sector, strengthening its position in specialty processes and optoelectronic integration.
Expanding 12-Inch Capacity and Specialty Processes
CanSemi specializes in 12-inch wafer foundry services and specialty process solutions. Its technology portfolio spans process nodes from 180nm to 55nm, covering analog, high-voltage, CMOS image sensor (CIS), bipolar-CMOS-DMOS (BCD), embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM), MOSFET, IGBT, and silicon photonics technologies.
Its products serve applications including power management, display drivers, image sensors, microcontrollers (MCUs), power devices, and optical communications, with end markets spanning automotive electronics, industrial control, consumer electronics, and optical modules.
CanSemi operates two 12-inch fabs with a combined planned monthly capacity of 80,000 wafers. As of 2025, monthly capacity had reached 63,300 wafers, with utilization at 96.38%. Construction of its Phase IV project began in January 2026, adding a planned monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers. The project is expected to enter production by late 2029, bringing total planned monthly capacity to 120,000 wafers.
As of the end of 2025, CanSemi had developed more than 200 customers, including nearly 40 publicly listed companies in China and overseas. Eight of China’s top 10 listed analog chipmakers have established partnerships with the company.
Silicon Photonics and Optical Integration in Focus
Beyond analog and power semiconductor manufacturing, CanSemi is advancing silicon photonics and optoelectronic integration. Its 90nm silicon photonics platform has accumulated more than 7,000 wafer starts, supporting 400G, 800G, and 1.6T pluggable optical modules. The company is also working to introduce 3.2T near-packaged optics (NPO) products.
Meanwhile, CanSemi is developing 65nm silicon photonics and processes related to co-packaged optics (CPO). Its R&D project for silicon photonics and optoelectronic co-packaging based on 65nm logic technology carries a total investment of CNY 770 million, with CNY 730 million earmarked from IPO proceeds.
The project aims to develop process platforms for optical modules of 800G and above, optical-engine integration for CPO, and microring modulator processes for optical input/output interfaces.
CNY 7.5 Billion IPO Proceeds to Support Growth
CanSemi plans to raise CNY 7.5 billion through its IPO. Proceeds will fund its Phase III 12-inch analog specialty-process production line, specialty-process technology R&D, and working capital.
Revenue rose from CNY 1.044 billion in 2023 to CNY 1.681 billion in 2024 and CNY 2.582 billion in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate of 57.3%. First-half 2026 revenue reached CNY 1.777 billion, up 68.76% year on year. Gross margin improved to -24.46% from -54.70% a year earlier.
However, CanSemi remains unprofitable. Net losses attributable to shareholders totaled CNY 1.917 billion in 2023, CNY 2.253 billion in 2024, and CNY 2.346 billion in 2025.
The company also reported a net loss of more than CNY 1 billion in the first half of 2026. Accumulated uncovered losses stood at approximately CNY 10.081 billion at the end of 2025, and CanSemi expects to achieve consolidated profitability no earlier than 2029.
(Photo credit: CamSemi)
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307bc4eeee· 2026-10-14 08:32 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包2226518bfdee当前