📊 TrendForceTrendForceDoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:53:14·⟳ 抓取 10:53:16 +2s·⚡ 决策 10-20 10:55:49 +2m33s·7.4 天前
TrendForce综述：长鑫科技Q3净利环比增速降至1–4%，DRAM涨价放缓压制存储板块盈利动能
本文为TrendForce对已公开信息（长鑫10月19日股东会展望、江波龙10月15日业绩预告、TrendForce自身季度价格预测）的二次综述，无新增可交易事实；相关标的近两周已因存储涨价见顶预期大幅下跌，利空基本price-in；同时DRAM/NAND合约价Q3仍环比上涨10–18%，只是涨幅放缓而非转跌，多空均无正期望。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] CXMT’s Earnings Boom Faces Test as 3Q Profit Growth Slows to 1–4% QoQ: What’s Behind the Slowdown? Ahead of its…
不做 长鑫科技（688825.SH）
无增量事实：Q3环比减速为10月19日股东会已披露信息，当日已跌7.77%、20日跌26.8%；前三季同比仍高增且产能满载，做多无新催化、做空处深度回调后且价格仍在涨，双向无edge，等10月31日正式财报再评估
不做 江波龙（301308.SZ）
Q3环比大降数据10月15日晚已正式公告，股价20日已跌28.5%、距52周高点-67.6%，利空基本price-in；此时追空属于跌后做空、风险收益差，不构成强空催化
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
这是一篇行业媒体的聚合分析：存储价格涨幅放缓与Q3盈利环比减速均已通过10月15日江波龙预告和10月19日长鑫股东会公开，并引发长鑫19日-7.77%、两只龙头20日跌27%左右的重定价。价格仍在上涨而非下跌，追空处下行趋势末端、做多缺新增催化，故回避。
消息传播链
- 聚合Star Market Daily、东方财富、36Kr、SCMP、爱集微等报道的综述，本身无新增一手事实，发布时点A股已盘中
关键理由
- 无值得交易的方向：核心数字均为5天内已披露并已被股价反映的旧信息
- DRAM/NAND合约价Q3环比仍涨13–18%/10–15%，属增速放缓而非景气反转，做空缺乏强催化
主要风险
- 10月31日长鑫正式财报及Q4指引若明确转为降价，可能打开新的下行空间，届时需重新评估
- 若AI/服务器需求超预期或板块回购扩散，已大幅回调的存储股可能技术反弹，做空存在逼空风险
反向证据
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:支持以NO_INCREMENTAL_FACT/PRICE_IN回避，不产生交易动作
方向:未构建可用先例面板：本信号本身无新增事件，所引用的江波龙预告与长鑫股东会展望均为已消化事件，不值得再做先例定价
涨幅量级:不适用（未开仓）
形态:长鑫19日对股东会展望的-7.77%反应本身已表明市场对环比减速即时重定价
工具执行结果 · 成功 7 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 14 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`江波龙 longsys 三季度 净利润 环比下滑 49% | 长鑫存储 cxmt 三季度 净利润 环比 1-4% 增速放缓 dram | 长鑫科技 前三季度 业绩预告 1310亿 10月19日 临时股东会`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选，不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复；按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - normalize_ticker 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 7 ms
未归一到唯一代码;请用 stock_quote 的 candidates 消歧,或直接给代码。 - normalize_ticker 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 5 ms
{ - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 275 ms
{ - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 2,501 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:江波龙 2026年前三季度 业绩预告 第三季度 净利润 34.2亿 43.2亿；API SearchType:web） - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,708 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:长鑫科技 科创板 上市 股票代码 688955 IPO；API SearchType:web） - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 101 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,141 字
[News] CXMT’s Earnings Boom Faces Test as 3Q Profit Growth Slows to 1–4% QoQ: What’s Behind the Slowdown?
Ahead of its October 31 earnings release, CXMT forecast revenue of RMB 265–270 billion for the first nine months of 2026, surging more than sevenfold YoY, according to Star Market Daily. Yet another key watch point is its slowing profit momentum, as its third-quarter net profit growth eased sharply to single digits QoQ, as highlighted by Eastmoney.
At its October 19 extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, CXMT elaborated on its earnings outlook, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 131–132.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026. As reported by South China Morning Post, this would mark a sharp reversal from a net loss of RMB 5.3 billion in the same period last year.
Addressing shareholders’ questions on capacity and demand, CXMT said its fabs in Hefei and Beijing continue to run at high utilization rates, backed by full order books, according to Star Market Daily.
Concerns Arise as CXMT’s QoQ Profit Growth Narrows to 1–4%
Despite its stellar nine-month outlook, CXMT’s quarterly figures reveal a different story. According to Eastmoney, third-quarter revenue is projected at RMB 114.69–119.69 billion, up 15.25–20.28% QoQ, while net profit is expected to rise just 1–4% to RMB 53.40–54.90 billion.
The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the first half, when CXMT’s net profit more than doubled to RMB 52.84 billion in 2Q26. Eastmoney attributes the cooling momentum to moderating DRAM price gains, which may be narrowing the room for further profit expansion.
As 36Kr notes, CXMT benefited heavily from rising memory prices in 2025, with DDR and LPDDR ASPs climbing 61% and 24.46% YoY, driving revenue growth of 515.36% and 105.59%, respectively. The momentum carried into 1H26, when DDR and LPDDR revenue reached RMB 69.47 billion and RMB 78.19 billion, respectively, before moderating price gains in the third quarter began weighing on earnings growth, the report adds.
The trend was also reflected in the earnings forecast of Chinese memory module maker Longsys: after net profit climbed from RMB 3.86 billion in 1Q26 to RMB 6.72 billion in 2Q26, its third-quarter profit is expected to be at RMB 3.42–4.32 billion, a sharp sequential decline of up to 49%, according to Ijiwei.
This cooling price momentum aligns with TrendForce’s outlook, which projects more moderate contract price increases of 13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM and 10–15% for NAND Flash in 3Q26. TrendForce notes that record-high memory prices are pushing PC and smartphone customers toward their affordability limits, tempering further price gains.
CXMT Faces Profitability Test Amid Expansion
Against this backdrop, CXMT faces a key challenge: sustaining profit growth while advancing its product roadmap and expanding capacity. As noted by 36Kr, in its 1H26 financial report, the company disclosed that its depreciation expenses rose 27.85% YoY to RMB 14.51 billion, with continued capacity investments expected to add further pressure on earnings over the coming years.
According to 36Kr, CXMT currently operates two 12-inch DRAM fabs in Hefei and one in Beijing, each with a monthly capacity of up to 100,000 wafers. The company is also expanding its testing facility in Hefei, while developing new DRAM and HBM production lines in Shanghai, the report adds.
Looking ahead, whether CXMT can sustain earnings momentum will hinge on its October 31 results and the trajectory of fourth-quarter DRAM prices. With fabs running at high utilization and capacity set to expand, the key question is whether CXMT can turn its advances in LPDDR6, LPDDR5X and emerging 4F² architectures into new growth drivers. With DRAM price gains moderating, its October 31 earnings release could offer further clues on whether product upgrades and capacity expansion can sustain profit growth beyond the current pricing cycle.
Read more
- [News] CXMT Accelerates 4F² DRAM Push, Eyes Year-End Server DDR5 RDIMM Launch
- [News] CXMT, YMTC Ramp Memory Capacity, but China’s AI, Cloud Boom Could Soak Up New Supply Through 2027
(Photo credit: CXMT)
Ahead of its October 31 earnings release, CXMT forecast revenue of RMB 265–270 billion for the first nine months of 2026, surging more than sevenfold YoY, according to Star Market Daily. Yet another key watch point is its slowing profit momentum, as its third-quarter net profit growth eased sharply to single digits QoQ, as highlighted by Eastmoney.
At its October 19 extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, CXMT elaborated on its earnings outlook, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 131–132.5 billion for the first nine months of 2026. As reported by South China Morning Post, this would mark a sharp reversal from a net loss of RMB 5.3 billion in the same period last year.
Addressing shareholders’ questions on capacity and demand, CXMT said its fabs in Hefei and Beijing continue to run at high utilization rates, backed by full order books, according to Star Market Daily.
Concerns Arise as CXMT’s QoQ Profit Growth Narrows to 1–4%
Despite its stellar nine-month outlook, CXMT’s quarterly figures reveal a different story. According to Eastmoney, third-quarter revenue is projected at RMB 114.69–119.69 billion, up 15.25–20.28% QoQ, while net profit is expected to rise just 1–4% to RMB 53.40–54.90 billion.
The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the first half, when CXMT’s net profit more than doubled to RMB 52.84 billion in 2Q26. Eastmoney attributes the cooling momentum to moderating DRAM price gains, which may be narrowing the room for further profit expansion.
As 36Kr notes, CXMT benefited heavily from rising memory prices in 2025, with DDR and LPDDR ASPs climbing 61% and 24.46% YoY, driving revenue growth of 515.36% and 105.59%, respectively. The momentum carried into 1H26, when DDR and LPDDR revenue reached RMB 69.47 billion and RMB 78.19 billion, respectively, before moderating price gains in the third quarter began weighing on earnings growth, the report adds.
The trend was also reflected in the earnings forecast of Chinese memory module maker Longsys: after net profit climbed from RMB 3.86 billion in 1Q26 to RMB 6.72 billion in 2Q26, its third-quarter profit is expected to be at RMB 3.42–4.32 billion, a sharp sequential decline of up to 49%, according to Ijiwei.
This cooling price momentum aligns with TrendForce’s outlook, which projects more moderate contract price increases of 13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM and 10–15% for NAND Flash in 3Q26. TrendForce notes that record-high memory prices are pushing PC and smartphone customers toward their affordability limits, tempering further price gains.
CXMT Faces Profitability Test Amid Expansion
Against this backdrop, CXMT faces a key challenge: sustaining profit growth while advancing its product roadmap and expanding capacity. As noted by 36Kr, in its 1H26 financial report, the company disclosed that its depreciation expenses rose 27.85% YoY to RMB 14.51 billion, with continued capacity investments expected to add further pressure on earnings over the coming years.
According to 36Kr, CXMT currently operates two 12-inch DRAM fabs in Hefei and one in Beijing, each with a monthly capacity of up to 100,000 wafers. The company is also expanding its testing facility in Hefei, while developing new DRAM and HBM production lines in Shanghai, the report adds.
Looking ahead, whether CXMT can sustain earnings momentum will hinge on its October 31 results and the trajectory of fourth-quarter DRAM prices. With fabs running at high utilization and capacity set to expand, the key question is whether CXMT can turn its advances in LPDDR6, LPDDR5X and emerging 4F² architectures into new growth drivers. With DRAM price gains moderating, its October 31 earnings release could offer further clues on whether product upgrades and capacity expansion can sustain profit growth beyond the current pricing cycle.
Read more
- [News] CXMT Accelerates 4F² DRAM Push, Eyes Year-End Server DDR5 RDIMM Launch
- [News] CXMT, YMTC Ramp Memory Capacity, but China’s AI, Cloud Boom Could Soak Up New Supply Through 2027
(Photo credit: CXMT)
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791523ce5a· 2026-10-20 10:55 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包658c0c1e2ba5当前