📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:28:22时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:28:32·⚡ 决策 07-15 11:18:47 +50m15s·104.2 天前
力积电获 Intel EMIB 矽电容认证并上调 DRAM 与成熟制程代工价格
事件本身偏利多：力积电矽电容进入 Intel EMIB 认证与稳定生产，同时 3D AI Foundry 目标三年内由约 5% 收入占比提升至 20%。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] PSMC Reportedly Secures Intel EMIB Certification for Silicon Capacitors, Targets 10K 12-inch Wafers per Month by…
不做 力积电（6770.TW）
方向偏多但不做：事件已在 7 月 14 日晚间法说后被多家台媒扩散，7 月 15 日盘中公开行情显示接近涨停，且 stock_quote 未能取得可校验真实价，无法按规则给出可回测 ENTER。
不做 联电（2303.TW）
仅为成熟制程涨价主题联动，缺少联电公司级订单、调价公告或短周期收入增量，不把行业景气外推成交易。
不做 世界先进（5347.TW）
仅为成熟节点代工景气外溢，当前信号没有给出世界先进的新增订单、涨价幅度或可量化业绩弹性，不做二阶追价。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 中央社报道力积电法说内容，包含晶圆堆叠、矽电容、配息与先进封装进展，是 TrendForce 引用的原始媒体来源之一。
- 鉅亨網披露力积电 7 月 DRAM 投片价格调升约 40%–45%、成熟制程代工价格上调约 10%–15%，并称涨价效益自 11 月起反映。市场反应:页面相关行情显示力积电 76.1、+9.97%，说明台股盘中已有强烈反应。
- TechNews 整理法说会重点，指出 3D AI Foundry 四大业务目标三年内由约 5% 收入占比提升至 20%。
- TrendForce 汇总中央社、工商时报、TechNews 与鉅亨網信息，强调 Intel EMIB 矽电容认证、CoWoS 外溢需求、Micron 合作和涨价周期。
关键理由
- 事件本身偏利多：力积电矽电容进入 Intel EMIB 认证与稳定生产，同时 3D AI Foundry 目标三年内由约 5% 收入占比提升至 20%。
- 业绩量级有支撑：Q2 收入 NT$17.29 亿、毛利率由 10% 升至 28%，记忆体占 Q2 销售逾 50%，7 月 DRAM 投片价格再涨约 40%–45%，但涨价效益主要从 11 月起反映。
- 当前不做的核心不是方向，而是执行与 edge：7 月 14 日晚间台媒已集中披露法说重点，7 月 15 日盘中相关页面显示力积电涨停附近，短线已被快速定价。
主要风险
- 利多由多家媒体整理法说内容而非全新独家订单，且 Intel EMIB 认证与 Micron/PWF 量产多在 2027–2028 年，短线兑现节奏偏慢。
- stock_quote 未能取得 6770.TW 的可校验真实行情，按决策规则不能给 ENTER；同时公开行情页面显示当日已接近涨停，追价性价比差。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 weakens
内部 KB 未命中更早的同一力积电涨价与 EMIB 认证完整事件，但命中存储涨价主题已被投研平台持续讨论，降低低扩散优势。
检索:力積電 DRAM 漲價 45% 7月 2026 法說 營收 毛利率 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 weakens
内部 KB 未提供额外公司级反证，但公开报道显示事件主要来自法说会信息整理，短线 surprise 已被媒体扩散稀释。
检索:PSMC Intel EMIB certification silicon capacitor 10000 wafers 2027 DRAM price hike 45% - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-07-15 · 影响 invalidates
stock_quote 返回 no_price，无法取得规则要求的真实价格；公开页面又显示力积电已接近涨停，执行 edge 不足。
检索:6770.TW stock_quote full
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,955 字
[News] PSMC Reportedly Secures Intel EMIB Certification for Silicon Capacitors, Targets 10K 12-inch Wafers per Month by 2027
Amid soaring legacy memory prices and improving margins, Taiwanese chipmaker PSMC is making further progress in collaborations with global semiconductor leaders. According to Central News Agency and Commercial Times , PSMC has achieved key milestones in silicon interposers and silicon capacitors, with its 12-inch high-density IPD (integrated passive device) silicon capacitors securing Intel EMIB certification and entering stable production.
Central News Agency, citing President Martin Chu, reports that PSMC offers both 8-inch and 12-inch silicon capacitors, with 12-inch capacity targeted to exceed 10,000 wafers per month by 2027 and 8-inch capacity expected to reach several thousand wafers.
The company is also gaining momentum in silicon interposers, which are used in TSMC’s CoWoS-S and CoWoS-L advanced packaging platforms, TechNews reports, adding that PSMC is benefiting from spillover demand as TSMC’s ongoing CoWoS capacity expansion continues to fall short of market demand.
Against this backdrop, Commercial Times adds that while PSMC’s 3D AI Foundry business currently accounts for about 5% of revenue, it aims to raise the share to 20% within three years, making it a key future growth driver.
Chairman Frank Huang also highlighted that PSMC has indirectly entered NVIDIA’s supply chain through power management IC and gallium nitride (GaN) products, according to Central News Agency.
Micron Collaboration in Focus
Following Micron’s completion of its acquisition of PSMC’s Tongluo fab, attention is now turning to the companies’ next phase of collaboration, as the two companies are set to leverage PSMC’s Hsinchu site for HBM/PWF foundry services and advanced memory process development. According to Central News Agency, the PWF pilot production line is expected to be completed by the end of this year, with mass production targeted for Q4 2027.
Meanwhile, PSMC’s 1P DRAM process, co-developed with Micron, is on track to complete equipment installation in Q1 2027, with mass production targeted for mid-2028, Anue reports.
July DRAM Price Hike Boosts Growth Outlook
DRAM remains PSMC’s key revenue driver, with memory accounting for more than 50% of Q2 sales, according to Central News Agency. Fueled by rising average selling prices (ASPs) and slightly higher shipments, Q2 revenue jumped 27% QoQ to NT$17.29 billion, while gross margin expanded to 28% from 10% in Q1. Net profit reached NT$3.29 billion, with EPS of NT$0.76.
Citing President Martin Chu, the report said PSMC raised DRAM wafer pricing by 45% in July amid tightening supply, with the impact expected to begin boosting revenue from November as new output comes online.
Anue , citing Chu, highlights that surging AI computing demand has driven major cloud service providers (CSPs) to lock in DRAM capacity years ahead. Alongside strong earnings from leading memory suppliers, the trend points to a DRAM shortage that could extend through 2027, Chu noted.
Notably, PSMC also flags strong foundry momentum, noting that it has also raised 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry prices by around 10%–15% in July, with AI servers, automotive electronics, and power management ICs emerging as the strongest demand drivers, Anue reports.
Given the ongoing supply shortage, Chairman Frank Huang said not only PSMC, but also Taiwanese mature-node foundries such as UMC and Vanguard, are well positioned to achieve gross margins above 40% in 2027, per Commercial Times.
Read more
[News] PSMC Joins Intel, SAIMEMORY to Demo 9-Layer Via-in-One Architecture for High Bandwidth 3D Memory
[News] PSMC Raises DRAM and NAND Prices in Mar–Apr; Micron and Intel EMIB Programs Reported to Advance
(Photo credit: I Domain Industrial)
Please note that this article cites information from Central News Agency , Commercial Times , TechNews and Anue .
Amid soaring legacy memory prices and improving margins, Taiwanese chipmaker PSMC is making further progress in collaborations with global semiconductor leaders. According to Central News Agency and Commercial Times , PSMC has achieved key milestones in silicon interposers and silicon capacitors, with its 12-inch high-density IPD (integrated passive device) silicon capacitors securing Intel EMIB certification and entering stable production.
Central News Agency, citing President Martin Chu, reports that PSMC offers both 8-inch and 12-inch silicon capacitors, with 12-inch capacity targeted to exceed 10,000 wafers per month by 2027 and 8-inch capacity expected to reach several thousand wafers.
The company is also gaining momentum in silicon interposers, which are used in TSMC’s CoWoS-S and CoWoS-L advanced packaging platforms, TechNews reports, adding that PSMC is benefiting from spillover demand as TSMC’s ongoing CoWoS capacity expansion continues to fall short of market demand.
Against this backdrop, Commercial Times adds that while PSMC’s 3D AI Foundry business currently accounts for about 5% of revenue, it aims to raise the share to 20% within three years, making it a key future growth driver.
Chairman Frank Huang also highlighted that PSMC has indirectly entered NVIDIA’s supply chain through power management IC and gallium nitride (GaN) products, according to Central News Agency.
Micron Collaboration in Focus
Following Micron’s completion of its acquisition of PSMC’s Tongluo fab, attention is now turning to the companies’ next phase of collaboration, as the two companies are set to leverage PSMC’s Hsinchu site for HBM/PWF foundry services and advanced memory process development. According to Central News Agency, the PWF pilot production line is expected to be completed by the end of this year, with mass production targeted for Q4 2027.
Meanwhile, PSMC’s 1P DRAM process, co-developed with Micron, is on track to complete equipment installation in Q1 2027, with mass production targeted for mid-2028, Anue reports.
July DRAM Price Hike Boosts Growth Outlook
DRAM remains PSMC’s key revenue driver, with memory accounting for more than 50% of Q2 sales, according to Central News Agency. Fueled by rising average selling prices (ASPs) and slightly higher shipments, Q2 revenue jumped 27% QoQ to NT$17.29 billion, while gross margin expanded to 28% from 10% in Q1. Net profit reached NT$3.29 billion, with EPS of NT$0.76.
Citing President Martin Chu, the report said PSMC raised DRAM wafer pricing by 45% in July amid tightening supply, with the impact expected to begin boosting revenue from November as new output comes online.
Anue , citing Chu, highlights that surging AI computing demand has driven major cloud service providers (CSPs) to lock in DRAM capacity years ahead. Alongside strong earnings from leading memory suppliers, the trend points to a DRAM shortage that could extend through 2027, Chu noted.
Notably, PSMC also flags strong foundry momentum, noting that it has also raised 8-inch and 12-inch wafer foundry prices by around 10%–15% in July, with AI servers, automotive electronics, and power management ICs emerging as the strongest demand drivers, Anue reports.
Given the ongoing supply shortage, Chairman Frank Huang said not only PSMC, but also Taiwanese mature-node foundries such as UMC and Vanguard, are well positioned to achieve gross margins above 40% in 2027, per Commercial Times.
Read more
[News] PSMC Joins Intel, SAIMEMORY to Demo 9-Layer Via-in-One Architecture for High Bandwidth 3D Memory
[News] PSMC Raises DRAM and NAND Prices in Mar–Apr; Micron and Intel EMIB Programs Reported to Advance
(Photo credit: I Domain Industrial)
Please note that this article cites information from Central News Agency , Commercial Times , TechNews and Anue .
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