📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 14:48:12·⟳ 抓取 14:48:25 +13s·⚡ 决策 08-24 14:49:55 +1m30s·64.0 天前
长江存储科创板IPO拟募资330亿元并披露一季度NAND高毛利
长江存储IPO和产业链受益主题在5月至7月已有多轮中文财经传播，本次TrendForce文章主要是转述招股书和媒体信息；直接主体未上市，A股映射标的缺少实时行情和事件研究验证，无法给出可执行ENTER。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] YMTC Eyes Record RMB 33B STAR Market IPO Fundraising; 1Q26 NAND Gross Margin Surges to 78.73%
Following CXMT’s IPO, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) has also had its STAR Market IPO application accepted. Accordi…
不做 北方华创（002371.SZ）
供应链受益逻辑成立，但本次不是新增订单公告，长存IPO主题已广泛传播且缺少实时行情验证，不追。
不做 中微公司（688012.SH）
刻蚀设备映射直接但催化已被市场多轮消化，无法确认当前仍有正期望和可执行买点。
不做 拓荆科技（688072.SH）
长江存储扩产利好沉积设备是旧主线，缺少本次新增订单金额、实时价格和先例测算支撑。
不做 养元饮品（603156.SH）
影子股逻辑偏情绪且此前已有显著传播和涨幅披露，当前不具备低price-in条件。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
事件本身对长江存储产业链偏利好，募资用于量产线升级和研发，理论上利好设备、材料、洁净室和封测供应商。但IPO进展及受益名单并非首次出现，5月、7月已有长江存储IPO及产业链标的梳理；当前信号更像二次扩散和数据整理，且直接主体不可交易，缺少实时行情确认下不宜追A股映射票。
消息传播链
- 中文财经内容已在5月梳理长鑫/长存IPO产业链核心受益标的，说明主题并非8月首次出现。
- 7月已有媒体报道长江存储IPO进展及A股影子股，显示股权关联逻辑已被市场讨论。
- WSJ同日称长江存储寻求约49亿美元IPO募资，并披露1Q26收入、净利和毛利率跃升。
- TrendForce转述21世纪经济报道、科创板日报、TechNews等信息，强调330亿元募资和1Q26 NAND毛利率78.73%。
关键理由
- 长江存储拟募资330亿元，其中208亿元用于量产线升级，方向上利好半导体设备和材料供应链。
- 1Q26收入470.4亿元、净利润333.8亿元、NAND毛利率78.73%，说明存储价格上行对公司盈利弹性极强。
- A股可交易映射主要是设备、材料和影子股，但这些名单在5月至7月已被市场反复交易。
主要风险
- 本次不是长江存储直接上市交易日，也不是明确新增供应商订单公告，映射标的业绩增量无法从文章直接量化。
- 产业链主题已广泛传播，若A股标的已在前期上涨或盘中放量，追高容易变成price-in交易。
反向证据
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足叠加实时行情缺失，使本次只能保留正向产业链观察，不输出交易单。
方向:方向上同类半导体IPO和扩产融资通常利好产业链，但本次缺少锚点干净、同市场同相位的已测先例。
涨幅量级:未取得事件研究工具测算，不能用历史涨幅校准tp/sl。
形态:IPO影子股和产业链名单在前期广泛传播后容易出现高开低走或情绪退潮，但本轮未能量化验证。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,196 字
[News] YMTC Eyes Record RMB 33B STAR Market IPO Fundraising; 1Q26 NAND Gross Margin Surges to 78.73%
Following CXMT’s IPO, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) has also had its STAR Market IPO application accepted. According to 21jingji , YMTC plans to raise RMB 33 billion. Of the proceeds, RMB 20.8 billion will be invested in upgrading its mass-production lines to optimize existing manufacturing processes and improve chip yields and production capacity, while another RMB 12.2 billion will be earmarked for advanced technology R&D and other projects.
The planned fundraising amount disclosed in YMTC’s prospectus exceeds CXMT’s RMB 29.5 billion and SMIC’s RMB 20 billion, making it the largest proposed fundraising in STAR Market history, as STAR Market Daily notes.
As noted by TechNews , preliminary figures in YMTC’s latest prospectus point to a strong financial turnaround. After turning profitable for the first time in 2024, the company generated RMB 47.04 billion in revenue in 1Q26, with net profit reaching RMB 33.38 billion.
The sharp earnings growth has been fueled by the current memory chip price upcycle. As noted by CHINAFUND , YMTC’s prospectus shows that its overall gross margin rose from 32.49% in 2024 to 35.30% in 2025, before surging to 76.77% in 1Q26. Its NAND Flash gross margin reached 78.73% in the quarter. As noted by National Business Daily , YMTC’s average NAND Flash selling price rose 172.72% in 1Q26 from the 2025 full-year average, while memory chip ASPs surged 218.00%.
However, YMTC’s product mix remains focused primarily on consumer NAND, while major rivals such as SK hynix and Samsung are more concentrated on higher-value products. YMTC therefore still has significant room to improve in areas including sales revenue and product positioning, 21jingji adds.
State-Backed Ownership and a Potential RMB 3 Trillion Valuation
The filing also details YMTC’s ownership structure, with state-backed industry funds and local development entities holding most of its shares. As noted by TechNews, Hubei Changsheng is the largest shareholder with a 26.54% stake, followed by Xinfei Technology at 25.35%. China’s National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, or the Big Fund, holds 11.97% through its first-phase fund and 1.38% through its second-phase fund, with the remainder held by smaller strategic investors and employee shareholding platforms.
CXMT is currently the largest A-share listed company by market capitalization, with a total market value approaching RMB 4 trillion. As noted by 21jingji, YMTC, whose STAR Market IPO application is currently under review, is estimated to reach a market capitalization of around RMB 3 trillion after listing. This would put the two Chinese memory giants at a combined market value of roughly RMB 7 trillion.
Read more
[News] CXMT DDR5 Reportedly Tops 9,000 MT/s on AMD Platform, Narrowing Performance Gap With Global Leaders
[News] YMTC Reportedly Invests in SOI Micro, Backing an Alternative Chipmaking Approach Without EUV
(Photo credit: YMTC)
Please note that this article cites information from 21jingji , STAR Market Daily , TechNews , YMTC , CHINAFUND , and National Business Daily .
Following CXMT’s IPO, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) has also had its STAR Market IPO application accepted. According to 21jingji , YMTC plans to raise RMB 33 billion. Of the proceeds, RMB 20.8 billion will be invested in upgrading its mass-production lines to optimize existing manufacturing processes and improve chip yields and production capacity, while another RMB 12.2 billion will be earmarked for advanced technology R&D and other projects.
The planned fundraising amount disclosed in YMTC’s prospectus exceeds CXMT’s RMB 29.5 billion and SMIC’s RMB 20 billion, making it the largest proposed fundraising in STAR Market history, as STAR Market Daily notes.
As noted by TechNews , preliminary figures in YMTC’s latest prospectus point to a strong financial turnaround. After turning profitable for the first time in 2024, the company generated RMB 47.04 billion in revenue in 1Q26, with net profit reaching RMB 33.38 billion.
The sharp earnings growth has been fueled by the current memory chip price upcycle. As noted by CHINAFUND , YMTC’s prospectus shows that its overall gross margin rose from 32.49% in 2024 to 35.30% in 2025, before surging to 76.77% in 1Q26. Its NAND Flash gross margin reached 78.73% in the quarter. As noted by National Business Daily , YMTC’s average NAND Flash selling price rose 172.72% in 1Q26 from the 2025 full-year average, while memory chip ASPs surged 218.00%.
However, YMTC’s product mix remains focused primarily on consumer NAND, while major rivals such as SK hynix and Samsung are more concentrated on higher-value products. YMTC therefore still has significant room to improve in areas including sales revenue and product positioning, 21jingji adds.
State-Backed Ownership and a Potential RMB 3 Trillion Valuation
The filing also details YMTC’s ownership structure, with state-backed industry funds and local development entities holding most of its shares. As noted by TechNews, Hubei Changsheng is the largest shareholder with a 26.54% stake, followed by Xinfei Technology at 25.35%. China’s National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, or the Big Fund, holds 11.97% through its first-phase fund and 1.38% through its second-phase fund, with the remainder held by smaller strategic investors and employee shareholding platforms.
CXMT is currently the largest A-share listed company by market capitalization, with a total market value approaching RMB 4 trillion. As noted by 21jingji, YMTC, whose STAR Market IPO application is currently under review, is estimated to reach a market capitalization of around RMB 3 trillion after listing. This would put the two Chinese memory giants at a combined market value of roughly RMB 7 trillion.
Read more
[News] CXMT DDR5 Reportedly Tops 9,000 MT/s on AMD Platform, Narrowing Performance Gap With Global Leaders
[News] YMTC Reportedly Invests in SOI Micro, Backing an Alternative Chipmaking Approach Without EUV
(Photo credit: YMTC)
Please note that this article cites information from 21jingji , STAR Market Daily , TechNews , YMTC , CHINAFUND , and National Business Daily .
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