📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:30:02·⟳ 抓取 15:30:07 +5s·⚡ 决策 09-09 16:30:15 +1h00m·47.9 天前
TrendForce称2026年第二季度全球晶圆代工收入创纪录,AI与成熟制程需求共同推升产能利用率
事件确认了晶圆代工行业景气改善,但属于第三方行业研究而非公司级新增订单、指引或盈利披露;核心标的的收入增量相对市值有限,部分二阶标的已提前上涨或仍处弱势,当前没有同时满足直接性、预期差、价格未充分反映和可执行性的交易腿。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
Global Foundry Revenue Approaches US$53.49 Billion in 2Q26 as SMIC Narrows Market Share Gap with Samsung, Says TrendFor…
不做 台积电(2330.TW)
行业报告为软性增量,未披露新增订单、指引或利润影响;超大市值且接近阶段高位,短线预期差不足。
不做 中芯国际(688981.SH)
报告虽显示收入和份额增速较强,但为第三方行业数据,缺少公司级新增事实;近期走势偏弱,无法确认行业利好已转化为可持续盈利弹性。
不做 联电(2303.TW)
成熟制程受益逻辑成立,但股价近20日已上涨约15%,且本次报告未提供超出既有经营数据的新信息,追价风险高。
不做 华虹半导体(01347.HK)
行业方向偏正面,但公司股价近20日下跌约21.9%,报告不足以确认基本面反转,方向与价格信号不一致。
不做 三星电子(005930.KS)
Foundry业务收入仅温和增长且市场份额下降,行业需求改善不足以覆盖竞争份额压力。
不做 GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)
收入增长与行业景气一致,但缺少新增客户、订单或指引,无法证明相对预期存在可交易优势。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
TrendForce给出前十大晶圆代工厂第二季度收入创纪录及第三季度需求改善展望,方向偏正面,但信息主要是行业层面的事后统计和模型预测。台积电的AI先进制程逻辑强但市值和估值较大,联电已在近20日上涨约15%,中芯国际和华虹半导体则分别呈现近期走弱或大幅回撤;报告没有新增公司订单、全年指引、利润率或客户确认,因此不足以形成正的短线预期差。
消息传播链
- TrendForce发布2026年第二季度全球晶圆代工市场研究,披露前十大厂商收入、市场份额及第三季度展望。
- 台湾科技媒体转述TrendForce同一份研究,未见新增订单、指引或官方公司确认。市场反应:台积电收盘下跌0.4%,联电上涨4.0%,中芯国际下跌0.8%,华虹半导体上涨0.5%。
关键理由
- 行业收入环比增长11.5%且AI/HPC、PMIC及成熟制程需求共同改善,基本面方向偏正面。
- 报告中台积电、中芯国际和联电的收入与利用率数据支持景气改善,但缺少相对一致预期的增量衡量。
- 主要可交易标的的当前价格轨迹已部分反映行业复苏,或存在公司层面的份额和执行约束。
主要风险
- TrendForce报告为产业研究机构的模型与判断,不等同于公司法定披露,后续数据可能修订。
- 第三季度需求、价格上涨和AI/HPC备货若低于预期,行业收入增长可能无法转化为利润增长。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-20 · 影响 weakens
内部资料显示台积电近期存在建设人力约束及涨价预期但未形成明确利空;三星先进制程竞争加剧,说明行业增长并非所有厂商均等受益。
检索:TSMC SMIC UMC HuaHong September 2026 negative evidence downgrade capacity pricing demand foundry 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-31 · 影响 weakens
部分涨价信息来自市场预期而非台积电正式披露,不能作为新的公司级盈利确认。
检索:TSMC UMC foundry price hike AI demand August 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-09-05 · 影响 weakens
联电8月收入和第三季度展望偏强,但属于此前已传播的公司经营信息,降低本次TrendForce报告的新增性。
检索:UMC August 2026 revenue PMIC demand third quarter outlook 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例证据不足进一步降低了对短线边际和持有期限的把握,支持当前回避。
方向:未能取得可用于校准方向的合格历史先例。
涨幅量级:未能用同市场、同机制且首发时刻完整的先例校准目标涨跌幅,因此不设置交易级止盈止损参数。
形态:无法根据合格先例判断行业研究发布后的高开低走或持续性模式。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 4,493 字
Global Foundry Revenue Approaches US$53.49 Billion in 2Q26 as SMIC Narrows Market Share Gap with Samsung, Says TrendForce
TrendForce’s latest foundry industry research reveals that the combined revenue of the world’s top 10 foundries rose 11.5% QoQ to nearly US$53.49 billion in 2Q26, setting another record high. Growth was driven by continued supply constraints for advanced processes used in AI and HPC processors, alongside rising demand for peripheral AI chips such as PMICs and power discretes. Continued advance procurement across consumer supply chains, including TVs, PCs, and notebooks, also tightened capacity for some mature processes.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, consumer IC design customers are expected to maintain steady wafer starts amid concerns that mature-process capacity could remain constrained and wafer prices may rise. The seasonal ramp-up of flagship smartphones and growing production of next-generation AI and HPC platforms are also expected to lift foundry revenue further.
Among the top 10 foundries, TSMC maintained its lead with 2Q26 revenue nearing $40.2 billion, a 12.1% increase QoQ, capturing a 72.5% market share. Strong demand for AI server GPUs and XPUs kept its 5/4nm and 3nm capacities fully booked. Additionally, the initial inventory buildup for new iPhones supported sales, and 2nm contributed revenue for the first time. These combined factors resulted in quarter-over-quarter growth in both wafer shipments and ASPs.
Samsung Foundry ranked second. New advanced-process orders, including HBM base dies, gradually ramped up during the quarter, while foundry prices for 5/4nm and more advanced nodes increased. Revenue edged up 1.8% QoQ to $3.26 billion. However, Samsung’s market share declined to 5.9% as competitors grew at a faster pace.
SMIC ranked third, with revenue surging 20% QoQ to more than $3 billion. Its market share edged up to 5.4%, narrowing the gap with Samsung. Growth was supported by advance procurement across consumer supply chains, particularly PCs and notebooks, as well as steadily increasing orders for AI peripheral ICs and server networking products. Widespread memory shortages also drove stronger foundry demand and pricing for NAND and NOR Flash.
UMC maintained fourth place with a 3.9% market share. The company benefited from advance procurement of PCs, notebooks, and certain consumer electronics in 1H26, as well as increased orders for server-related products such as FPGAs. A significant recovery in 8-inch capacity utilization also provided support. As a result, 2Q26 revenue rose 12.7% QoQ to nearly $2.18 billion.
GlobalFoundries ranked fifth, supported by renewed procurement from consumer customers and growing demand for AI and server peripheral components, including power ICs and TIAs/drivers. Both wafer shipments and ASP increased during the quarter, lifting revenue 9.3% QoQ to approximately $1.79 billion. Its market share stood at 3.2%.
Strong PMIC demand and foundry pricing lift VIS back to eighth place
HuaHong Group ranked sixth, with 2Q26 revenue rising 3.5% QoQ to more than $1.27 billion. Stable orders for NOR Flash and AI-related PMICs provided support, while previous wafer price increases began to contribute more meaningfully to revenue and ASP. The gradual ramp-up of new capacity at subsidiary HHGrace also supported the group’s growth.
Tower took seventh place with revenue of $460 million, up 11.2% QoQ. Growth was driven by higher shipments and production of ICs used in AI optical transceiver modules, including TIAs/drivers, and photonic ICs.
VIS moved back into eighth place as advance procurement and rising orders for AI peripheral ICs and smartphone PMIC/power products boosted wafer shipments and ASP. Revenue increased 13.8% QoQ to $451 million.
Nexchip slipped to ninth place despite a 6.4% QoQ increase in revenue to $447 million. Orders for its core display driver IC (DDIC) products returned as capacity at other foundries was increasingly allocated elsewhere. Advance procurement of consumer products also lifted capacity utilization and shipments. However, its growth remained weaker than that of AI-related power products, resulting in a decline in ranking.
PSMC ranked tenth, with revenue rising 11.9% QoQ to $432 million. Although overall shipments increased only modestly, deliveries of memory and logic wafers reflecting previous price increases helped drive revenue growth.
For more on the latest technology industry news and trends, please visit News.
TrendForce’s latest foundry industry research reveals that the combined revenue of the world’s top 10 foundries rose 11.5% QoQ to nearly US$53.49 billion in 2Q26, setting another record high. Growth was driven by continued supply constraints for advanced processes used in AI and HPC processors, alongside rising demand for peripheral AI chips such as PMICs and power discretes. Continued advance procurement across consumer supply chains, including TVs, PCs, and notebooks, also tightened capacity for some mature processes.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, consumer IC design customers are expected to maintain steady wafer starts amid concerns that mature-process capacity could remain constrained and wafer prices may rise. The seasonal ramp-up of flagship smartphones and growing production of next-generation AI and HPC platforms are also expected to lift foundry revenue further.
Among the top 10 foundries, TSMC maintained its lead with 2Q26 revenue nearing $40.2 billion, a 12.1% increase QoQ, capturing a 72.5% market share. Strong demand for AI server GPUs and XPUs kept its 5/4nm and 3nm capacities fully booked. Additionally, the initial inventory buildup for new iPhones supported sales, and 2nm contributed revenue for the first time. These combined factors resulted in quarter-over-quarter growth in both wafer shipments and ASPs.
Samsung Foundry ranked second. New advanced-process orders, including HBM base dies, gradually ramped up during the quarter, while foundry prices for 5/4nm and more advanced nodes increased. Revenue edged up 1.8% QoQ to $3.26 billion. However, Samsung’s market share declined to 5.9% as competitors grew at a faster pace.
SMIC ranked third, with revenue surging 20% QoQ to more than $3 billion. Its market share edged up to 5.4%, narrowing the gap with Samsung. Growth was supported by advance procurement across consumer supply chains, particularly PCs and notebooks, as well as steadily increasing orders for AI peripheral ICs and server networking products. Widespread memory shortages also drove stronger foundry demand and pricing for NAND and NOR Flash.
UMC maintained fourth place with a 3.9% market share. The company benefited from advance procurement of PCs, notebooks, and certain consumer electronics in 1H26, as well as increased orders for server-related products such as FPGAs. A significant recovery in 8-inch capacity utilization also provided support. As a result, 2Q26 revenue rose 12.7% QoQ to nearly $2.18 billion.
GlobalFoundries ranked fifth, supported by renewed procurement from consumer customers and growing demand for AI and server peripheral components, including power ICs and TIAs/drivers. Both wafer shipments and ASP increased during the quarter, lifting revenue 9.3% QoQ to approximately $1.79 billion. Its market share stood at 3.2%.
Strong PMIC demand and foundry pricing lift VIS back to eighth place
HuaHong Group ranked sixth, with 2Q26 revenue rising 3.5% QoQ to more than $1.27 billion. Stable orders for NOR Flash and AI-related PMICs provided support, while previous wafer price increases began to contribute more meaningfully to revenue and ASP. The gradual ramp-up of new capacity at subsidiary HHGrace also supported the group’s growth.
Tower took seventh place with revenue of $460 million, up 11.2% QoQ. Growth was driven by higher shipments and production of ICs used in AI optical transceiver modules, including TIAs/drivers, and photonic ICs.
VIS moved back into eighth place as advance procurement and rising orders for AI peripheral ICs and smartphone PMIC/power products boosted wafer shipments and ASP. Revenue increased 13.8% QoQ to $451 million.
Nexchip slipped to ninth place despite a 6.4% QoQ increase in revenue to $447 million. Orders for its core display driver IC (DDIC) products returned as capacity at other foundries was increasingly allocated elsewhere. Advance procurement of consumer products also lifted capacity utilization and shipments. However, its growth remained weaker than that of AI-related power products, resulting in a decline in ranking.
PSMC ranked tenth, with revenue rising 11.9% QoQ to $432 million. Although overall shipments increased only modestly, deliveries of memory and logic wafers reflecting previous price increases helped drive revenue growth.
For more on the latest technology industry news and trends, please visit News.
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