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📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:55:36时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:56:10·⚡ 决策 07-24 11:59:07 +2m57s·95.1 天前

AMD MI455X采用TSMC 2nm与CoWoS-L,带动先进封装需求预期升温

事件对TSMC、日月光/矽品、联电、世界先进、力成等先进封装链条方向偏正面,但主要是2026-2028年产能紧缺与路线图再确认。

📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] AMD Unveils MI455X Targeting Nvidia Rubin; TSMC 2nm, CoWoS-L Demand Seen Rising
AMD unveils its sixth-generation EPYC 9006 server CPU and Instinct MI455X GPU, expanding its AI portfolio across agenti…
不做 台积电(TSM.US)
TSMC是直接受益方但市值约2.16万亿美元,本条未披露新增订单金额或capex指引,只是2nm/CoWoS-L路线图确认,不足以推动主标的短线重定价。
不做 日月光投控(ASX.US)
ASE有CoW外包与CoWoS-L敞口,但报道未量化AMD订单份额,且内部KB显示AI加速器核心封装仍主要留台积电;ASX.US当日收跌且主题已被机构覆盖,edge不足。
不做 日月光投控(3711.TW)
台股本体盘中可交易但stock_quote未取得真实价,且同源ASX.US未显示正向重定价;在无订单量级和无实时价情况下不做。
不做 力成科技(6239.TW)
Zen 7采用Powertech FOPLP仍是2026下半年试产、2027潜在量产的远期预期,未披露客户订单或营收占比,且未取得实时价,不做。
不做 联电(2303.TW)
UMC仅是可能供应silicon interposer的成熟节点间接受益方,金额和份额不清,stock_quote未取得台股实时价,无法形成可执行正期望。
不做 世界先进(5347.TWO)
世界先进同样只是可能供应interposer的间接受益方,工具归一/取价结果不可靠且缺少订单量级,不做。

另有 1 腿,见展开详情。

展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

其余 1 腿

不做 AMD(AMD.US)
AMD自身产品发布方向偏正面,但美股已闭市且07-23已收跌2.29%,本条没有新增可量化收入或客户订单金额,当前不追主标的。

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-24 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-23官方确认/否认AMD Server/X一手源原文 ↗
    AMD官方账号已在07-23发布Helios Rackscale与72颗MI455X GPU平台信息,说明核心产品路线图并非TrendForce首发。
    市场反应:AMD.US 07-23收跌2.29%,未体现单日正向重定价。
  2. 2026-07-24行业媒体转载TrendForce非一手原文 ↗
    TrendForce综合AMD、Commercial Times、Tom's Hardware、Wccftech称MI455X/EPYC Venice将拉动TSMC 2nm、CoWoS-L、SoIC与部分OSAT外包需求。
  3. 2026-07-24其它内部KB/路演纪要非一手原文 ↗
    内部库已有AMD Advancing AI 2026 Keynote纪要,说明机构端已经在跟踪AMD AI路线图与推理需求。

关键理由

  • 事件对TSMC、日月光/矽品、联电、世界先进、力成等先进封装链条方向偏正面,但主要是2026-2028年产能紧缺与路线图再确认。
  • 内部定量库显示CoWoS-L在2026年已预期成为CoWoS绝对主力,日月光/矽品专注CoWoS-L、AI加速器核心仍留在台积电,新增预期差有限。
  • TSMC体量过大,ASX.US近20日已围绕先进封装链波动且本条未披露新增订单金额或利润弹性,台股核心候选又未取得可交易实时价,无法形成可回测ENTER。

主要风险

  • 若Commercial Times后续披露AMD给ASE/力成/联电/世界先进的明确订单金额或产能包线,需按订单量级重新评估。
  • 先进封装主题本身拥挤,ASX.US近13周明显上行,单篇产业媒体转述容易成为已知叙事确认而非新催化。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-24 · 影响 weakens
    内部KB命中摩根士丹利TSMC/CoWoS更新、金元证券AMD Helios点评和AMD活动纪要,说明主题已被机构覆盖,不是低扩散利好。
    检索:AMD MI455X CoWoS-L ASE Powertech UMC Vanguard Commercial Times 2026 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-07-24 · 影响 weakens
    定量库显示CoWoS-L 2026年已预期成为绝对主力,日月光/矽品专注CoWoS-L但AI加速器仍主要留台积电,新增外包弹性受限。
    检索:AMD MI450 MI455X CoWoS-L ASE Powertech UMC Vanguard SoIC
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-24 · 影响 none
    命中同日媒体与纪要,但没有找到足以量化ASE新增订单金额或收入占比的证据。
    检索:日月光 矽品 CoWoS-L AMD MI455X CoW 外包 2026 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-24 · 影响 weakens
    未找到力成FOPLP已获AMD确定订单金额的强证据,报道仍是试产/潜在量产预期。
    检索:力成 FOPLP AMD Zen 7 Powertech 2026 量产 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(6 种)
  • search_processed_events · 结果未知
  • stock_quote · 结果未知
  • query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
  • kb_search · 结果未知
  • supply_chain_lookup · 结果未知
  • normalize_ticker · 结果未知

原文全文

展开原文 · 3,906 字
[News] AMD Unveils MI455X Targeting Nvidia Rubin; TSMC 2nm, CoWoS-L Demand Seen Rising
AMD unveils its sixth-generation EPYC 9006 server CPU and Instinct MI455X GPU, expanding its AI portfolio across agentic AI, cloud computing, enterprise, and high-performance computing (HPC). According to Commercial Times , the move is expected to drive demand for TSMC’s advanced packaging technologies, including CoWoS-L and SoIC. Meanwhile, AMD notes that the EPYC Venice processor has entered volume production on TSMC’s advanced 2nm process technology, while the MI455X is built using TSMC 2nm and 3nm FinFET technologies.

Advanced Packaging Across AMD’s Chip Portfolio

Advanced packaging is becoming a key differentiator across AMD’s AI product roadmap. As Tom’s Hardware notes, the MI455X integrates 320 billion transistors using multiple advanced packaging technologies. Four Accelerator Complex Dies (XCDs) are hybrid-bonded onto each Fabric and Cache Die (FCD), while the two FCDs are interconnected with 12 HBM4 stacks, two I/O dies, and each other using TSMC’s CoWoS-L packaging technology.

The technology is also expected to extend to AMD’s next-generation CPUs. According to the Commercial Times, some high-end EPYC Venice models are reportedly expected to adopt TSMC’s CoWoS-L packaging and be manufactured at TSMC’s Kaohsiung Fab 22, with production expected to ramp in the second half of 2026 to support growing demand for agentic AI servers.

Commercial Times adds that CoWoS-L capacity remains tight. Sources cited by the report say some Chip-on-Wafer (CoW) orders are expected to be outsourced to ASE, while TSMC and OSAT providers continue expanding CoWoS capacity with visibility extending through 2027 and 2028. Depending on customer demand, TSMC may also source silicon interposers from UMC and Vanguard, further expanding the role of mature-node foundries in AI advanced packaging.

Looking further ahead, Commercial Times says AMD’s MI450, MI455X, and future AI chips are expected to boost SoIC (System-on-Integrated-Chips) demand. Institutional investors cited by the report estimate that TSMC’s SoIC capacity will reach 15,000–20,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, before doubling again by the end of 2027. Separately, Commercial Times also notes that AMD’s Zen 7 processors, expected to launch next year, could adopt Powertech’s FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel-Level Packaging), with trial production expected in the second half of 2026 and potential mass production as early as 2027.

Head-to-Head with Nvidia Rubin

Compared with Nvidia’s Rubin, the MI455X introduces several key differences in memory and compute performance. According to Wccftech , AMD’s Instinct MI455X adopts HBM4 memory, increasing capacity by 50% from 288GB of HBM3E on the MI350 series to 432GB. Memory bandwidth also rises to 22.3 TB/s, up 2.8× from 8 TB/s on its predecessor.

By comparison, Nvidia’s Rubin GPU is equipped with 288GB of HBM4 memory and delivers up to 22 TB/s of bandwidth. On compute performance,  Wccftech reports that the MI455X delivers up to 40 PFLOPs of FP4 and 20 PFLOPs of FP8 performance—roughly doubling the compute capability of the MI350 series. By comparison, Nvidia’s Rubin GPU provides 50 PFLOPs of FP4 and 17.5 PFLOPs of FP8 performance.

Customer commitments are also taking shape. The Commercial Times reports that partner Anthropic has committed to invest US$5 billion and will deploy data centers powered by the latest Instinct MI450-series GPUs, with the first 1 GW phase expected to come online in the first half of 2027.

Read more

[News] Intel, AMD Reportedly Sign Long-Term Server CPU Deals with Chinese Customers Amid Tight Supply

[News] AMD’s Helios AI Rack Challenges NVIDIA with HBM4 Memory Edge; Microsoft Joins as Latest Customer

(Photo credit: AMD)

Please note that this article cites information from  AMD ,  Commercial Times ,  Tom’s Hardware , and  Wccftech .

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