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📊 TrendForceTrendForceQwen · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:无可交易标的
北京时间·🕒 发布 08:30:01·⟳ 抓取 10:58:17 +2h28m·⚡ 决策 09-14 17:31:05 +6h32m·43.0 天前

初创公司 Kepler 宣称用铁电存储(FeRAM)+3D堆叠在格罗方德28nm成熟产线上做出HBM替代方案,计划2026年出样、2027年在新加坡投产

事件直接主体 Kepler 为非上市公司,没有可交易证券;唯一被点名的上市关联方 GlobalFoundries 既无官方协议或金额披露,其潜在敞口相对市值与收入基数也不具短线重大性,而 HBM 在位厂商在2027年前不存在可核验的收入/份额冲击。消息本身是行业媒体对初创自述的三手转述(TechPowerUp/OC3D/Commercial Times),TrendForce 亦明确“良率与规模化可行性尚未证明”,方向与量级都无法坐实,故不做多也不做空。

📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] Kepler Claims HBM Alternative Without EUV Using GlobalFoundries’ 28nm Fabs, 2027 Production
As the AI boom strains supply and pushes up costs, startups are exploring new ways to expand memory production. Accordi…
不做 Kepler Computing(非上市初创)(N/A)
事件直接主体为非上市公司,无任何可交易证券;其技术宣称仍处“约2,000片流片、2026年出样、2027年计划投产”阶段,良率与规模化可行性未证明,无法定位可执行标的。
不做 GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)
仅媒体转述称可在改造后的GF 28nm厂生产,GF 未公告协议、金额或时间表;潜在敞口发生在2027年以后,相对其收入与市值不具短线 materiality,且消息为三手转述、无一手确认,做多缺正期望。
不做 美光(MU.US)
HBM 在位厂商在2026-2027年供需与定价不受该未验证初创方案影响,不构成强空催化;“远期技术替代”属弱理由,做空红线不满足,同时也不构成做多催化,故不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

一家未上市初创声称用 FeRAM+3D堆叠在 GF 28nm 成熟产线上做低成本 HBM 替代,2026年才出样、2027年才计划投产,且良率与可行性未证明;直接主体不可交易,唯一上市关联方 GF 无公告协议、敞口对市值不构成重大性,HBM 在位厂商也无近期收入冲击,因此无可执行正期望交易。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-14 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗

消息传播链

  1. 首发TechPowerUp / OC3D / Commercial Times(转述 Kepler 自述,原文未命中)非一手
    TrendForce 全文以这三家为事实来源,均属对初创公司技术宣称的媒体转述;本轮检索未能定位其原始稿件,故首发时间与一手性无法核验,不得当作公司已确认的产能/订单事实
  2. 2026-09-14 00:30 UTC行业媒体转载TrendForce原文 ↗
    行业研究机构汇编该消息,同时明确标注“尚未证明量产良率与规模化技术可行性”,本身即降低了消息的证据等级
    市场反应:无:直接主体未上市,GF/美光等未就此发布公告,A/H/美股盘前盘后亦无相关异动证据
  3. 官方确认/否认GlobalFoundries / Kepler非一手
    截至研判时点未见 GlobalFoundries 就新加坡28nm产线改造或代工协议作出任何确认,也未见 Kepler 官方一手披露,官方确认环节缺失

主要风险

  • 若后续 GlobalFoundries 正式公告改造/代工协议并给出可观产能或订单金额,GF 的成熟节点再利用叙事可能被重新定价,需届时按一手披露重研
  • 若 Kepler 样品与良率数据被第三方验证,长期或对 HBM 在位厂商的定价权构成边际压力,但目前仅为远期期权,不改变近期供需

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 invalidates
    未找到 GF 官方确认的代工/改造协议或金额,GF 的多头逻辑缺乏一手因果证据;且相关融资为多年累计约4.68亿美元、由三家分摊,对 GF 市值弹性可忽略
    检索:GlobalFoundries Singapore 28nm fab retrofit ferroelectric memory startup funding Intel Capital AMD Ventures 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-03-30 · 影响 weakens
    内部KB只有3D DRAM/存储设备国产化等产业链纪要,显示此类新堆叠技术仍处早期研发(本土初创亦在研),未出现任何 A 股公司与 Kepler 的供货或认证关系,主题映射无因果敞口
    检索:HBM 替代技术 铁电存储 FeRAM 3D堆叠 初创公司 对存储厂商影响 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 invalidates
    定量库仅给出 SK hynix HBM3 量产份额>95%(模型推导)等格局数据,未显示在位厂商近期份额/价格受损;一个2027年才投产、良率未验证的初创方案不构成对美光/海力士的强空催化,做空红线①不满足
    检索:HBM 供给 竞争格局 三星 SK海力士 美光 份额 扩产

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:不改变结论:因直接主体不可交易、上市关联方无已确认重大敞口,本次不进入定价环节,先例缺失不构成额外否决理由。

方向:无可用先例:本轮检索降级未能取得“未上市初创发布未验证存储技术、由成熟节点代工厂承接”的同市场同相位历史案例及其真实日线。

涨幅量级:无高相似、锚点干净的先例,不据此校准任何 tp/sl。

形态:无样本,无法判断见光死/高开低走模式。

工具执行结果 · 成功 6 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 34 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`globalfoundries 28nm feram 存储 | hbm 替代技术 初创公司 | kepler computing hbm alternative | kepler computing 融资 468 million | kepler feram globalfoundries 28nm`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不
  2. web_search 成功 Bing RSS · 327 ms
    Bing RSS 搜索结果(原始查询:Kepler Computing HBM alternative FeRAM GlobalFoundries 28nm 2027 production)
  3. web_search 成功 Bing RSS · 272 ms
    Bing RSS 搜索结果(原始查询:"Kepler Computing" memory startup FeRAM HBM TechPowerUp)
  4. web_search 成功 Bing RSS · 273 ms
    Bing RSS 搜索结果(原始查询:GlobalFoundries Singapore 28nm fab retrofit ferroelectric memory startup funding Intel Capital AMD Ventures)
  5. kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,235 ms
    {
  6. query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 373 ms
    {"result": "modeling_kb 命中 1 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 0 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [?] SK Hynix · HBM 领跑者 · HBM3 量产份额 · CY2023 = >95%(模型推导/无直接引用)\n 依据: 目前唯一量产出货 HBM3 的供应商,市场份额超过 95%。\n (来源页 hbm · claim_id=737bec27dede0be5)\n\n回答时请把上面的 [N] 标注在

原文全文

展开原文 · 2,995 字
[News] Kepler Claims HBM Alternative Without EUV Using GlobalFoundries’ 28nm Fabs, 2027 Production
As the AI boom strains supply and pushes up costs, startups are exploring new ways to expand memory production. According to TechPowerUp, Kepler Computing claims to have developed an alternative approach to HBM based on a new 3D stacking technique and novel materials, with production designed around mature nodes rather than cutting-edge processes.
Notably, while modern memory manufacturing typically relies on EUV lithography, Kepler plans to use mature-node capacity and ferroelectric RAM (FeRAM) technology for its memory products. OC3D notes that Kepler’s ferroelectric approach is designed to “approach the bandwidth per watt of SRAM” while offering up to 10 times the capacity of SRAM and HBM.
Kepler’s technology can reportedly be manufactured at a retrofitted GlobalFoundries 28nm fab, with the conversion taking an estimated eight months, potentially shortening the path from technology development to volume production compared with building a new advanced fab.
Kepler has so far processed around 2,000 wafers using its new technology, with its first samples expected later in 2026. The company aims to begin production runs at GlobalFoundries’ Singapore facility in 2027, followed by U.S. manufacturing in 2028, according to TechPowerUp.
Kepler says its use of FeRAM could maintain standard HBM capacity while significantly lowering manufacturing costs. OC3D notes that the company is using materials science to develop the technology and claims to have already achieved the “fundamental breakthroughs” needed to make the new memory approach possible.
Kepler Targets a Lower-Cost Path to Challenge the HBM Status Quo
The use of older manufacturing processes could also make capacity expansion faster and less expensive. As demand for HBM surges alongside generative AI and large language models, major memory makers including Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have committed billions of dollars to expanding production. According to Commercial Times, Kepler argues that building new DRAM or HBM fabs is both costly and time-consuming, while converting existing facilities could provide a faster, lower-cost way to add memory capacity. If the technology proves viable at scale, it could also introduce a different manufacturing model into a market currently dominated by established memory suppliers.
According to TechPowerUp, Kepler has also secured around $468 million in funding over the past several years from GlobalFoundries, Intel Capital, and AMD Ventures, with Intel and AMD potentially becoming future customers. Still, the report notes that Kepler has yet to demonstrate production yields and technical viability at scale.
Read more
- [News] Hot Chips 2026: Samsung’s zHBM Claims 70% Power-Efficiency Gain; SK hynix Evaluates Intel EMIB
- [News] Intel Patent Reveals XBM Matching HBM4 Footprint Without Interposers; Commercialization Seen After 2030
(Photo credit: Kepler on X)

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