美国对部分加拿大商品加征50%关税并推出铝厂投资关税折扣，亚洲车企和铝企读出无可执行边际

# 美股盘后催化 11/11: 美国对加拿大部分商品加征50%关税并另设铝关税建厂激励，北美供应链本土化压力升高

- 美股会话: 2026-07-20
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 监管/政策；规划重大性: 7/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：白宫、USTR、Bloomberg和CNBC称美国将对多项加拿大产品额外加征50%关税，涉及汽车、酒类、乳制品等争端，能源、钾肥、关键矿产获豁免；另有铝关税激励方案，赴美新建或扩建铝厂企业进口铝关税可由50%降至约25%。推断：北美汽车、食品酒类和跨境贸易不确定性上升；美国本土铝和制造投资受益，亚洲汽车、金属和零部件公司需按北美产地和出口链条重估。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- GM.US (GM.US): 75.8 -0.35%
- F.US (F.US): 13.99 -1.69%
- STZ.US (STZ.US): 134.36 +1.12%
- AA.US (AA.US): 43.48 -1.14%
- CENX.US (CENX.US): 42.84 +3.23%
- STLD.US (STLD.US): 230.49 -2.13%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 丰田汽车 (7203.JP) [JP/同源本地股/mixed]: 北美汽车贸易摩擦可能扰动加拿大/美国生产和零部件流向。；核验问题: 丰田加拿大制造、美国销售、零部件跨境敞口和关税适用品类。
- 现代汽车 (005380.KS) [KR/竞争替代/mixed]: 非加拿大产能可能相对受益，但北美零部件链成本也可能上升。；核验问题: 现代/起亚北美车型产地、加拿大供应链敞口和替代份额机会。
- 中国铝业 (2600.HK) [HK/竞争替代/negative]: 美国鼓励本土铝投资并设置关税门槛，长期可能压缩非美国铝进入美国链条机会。；核验问题: 公司美国出口敞口、适用关税范围和全球铝升水传导。

## 必答问题

- 最终HTS清单、USMCA处理和加拿大反制细节是什么？
- 哪些亚洲车企在加拿大生产并出口美国？
- 美国电力成本是否支持新增原铝产能经济性？

## 原始证据全文（20 条）

### [E1305] White House Presidential Actions | 2026-07-20 19:44 UTC | 盘中
Further Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum into the United States
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/further-strengthening-actions-taken-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-into-the-united-states/
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION 1. In Proclamation 9704 of March 8, 2018 (Adjusting Imports of Aluminum Into the United States), as amended, I found, under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, 19 U.S.C. 1862 (section 232), that aluminum is being imported into the United […]
The post Further Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum into the United States appeared first on The White House.

### [E1306] White House Fact Sheets | 2026-07-20 19:44 UTC | 盘中
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Further Action To Adjust Imports Of Aluminum Into The United States
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-further-action-to-adjust-imports-of-aluminum-into-the-united-states/
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Further Action To Adjust Imports Of Aluminum Into The United States

### [E1314] 新浪财经7x24 | 2026-07-20 19:47 UTC | 盘中
美国白宫：特朗普签署公告，授权商务部长设立激励计划，扶持投资铝冶炼厂的企业。
URL: https://wap.cj.sina.cn/pc/7x24/4998445
美国白宫：特朗普签署公告，授权商务部长设立激励计划，扶持投资铝冶炼厂的企业。

### [E1373] Bloomberg | 2026-07-20 20:05 UTC | 收盘后
US Offers to Halve Aluminum Duties for Firms Building in US
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-20/us-offers-to-halve-aluminum-duties-for-companies-building-in-us
US Offers to Halve Aluminum Duties for Firms Building in US
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
- The Trump administration announced an incentive program to cut tariffs on imported aluminum to about 25% from 50% for companies that build, expand or refurbish aluminum plants in the US.
- The US doesn't have enough primary aluminum capacity to meet demand and relies heavily on imports, especially from Canada and the Middle East.
- The 50% tariff has driven the US Midwest premium sharply higher, causing US manufacturers to pay the highest raw material prices in the world.
The Trump administration announced an incentive program under which companies that build, expand or refurbish aluminum plants in the US would receive a tariff discount for the metal they ship into the country from abroad.
The plan, announced on Monday, would cut tariffs on imported aluminum to about 25% from 50% for companies that have fulfilled the new requirements and have been approved by the US.
President Donald Trump had imposed the 50% duty as part of efforts to boost domestic capacity of the lightweight metal used in everything from automobiles to washing machines. But the effort yielded only sporadic success and many nations have lobbied for a reduction.
More importantly, the US doesn’t have enough primary aluminum capacity to meet demand. Instead it heavily relies on imports, especially from Canada and the Middle East to fulfill domestic consumption.
The US currently has four operating aluminum plants, a number that has declined from 23 smelters in 2000. About half of all aluminum consumed in the US is produced in Canada, where the energy-intensive facilities use cheaper forms of power like hydroelectricity. The power economics loom large over domestic expansion, with the last new smelter having been built in the US more than four decades ago.
The punitive 50% tariff has driven the so-called US Midwest premium — the amount added to global price benchmarks to deliver the metal to that region — sharply higher since it came into effect in June last year. Another supply shock stemming from the Iran war helped boost the regional aluminum premium by nearly 100%.
The US Midwest premium is the proxy for the amount of money US manufacturers pay to make products such as appliances, beverage cans and automobiles. They have essentially been paying the highest raw material prices in the world and have adopted a just-in-time buying pattern, buying enough to handle immediate production needs.
Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange, the global benchmark, have also climbed sharply this year as the dual shocks tightened the market. LME aluminum prices settled 0.3% lower to $3,140 a metric ton prior to the White House announcement.
— With assistance from Jennifer A Dlouhy
(Updates with additional background from third paragraph.)

### [E1429] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-20 20:29 UTC | 收盘后
特朗普政府出新招：到美国建厂铝关税打对折
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3137085
美国总统特朗普的政府宣布激励措施，在美国新建、扩建或翻新铝厂的企业从国外进口该金属可享受关税折扣。据周一公布的这项方案，对于符合新要求并获得美国批准的公司，铝的进口关税将从50%降至约25%。特朗普为提升国内铝产能下令征收50%的关税。但迄今为止他的努力收效甚微，且许多国家都游说美国政府降低关税。

特朗普政府出新招：到美国建厂铝关税打对折

### [E1498] White House Fact Sheets | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Additional Tariffs on Canada
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-canada/
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Additional Tariffs on Canada

### [E1499] White House Presidential Actions | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Alcoholic Beverages
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/imposing-additional-duties-to-offset-canadian-discrimination-against-the-commerce-of-the-united-states-with-respect-to-alcoholic-beverages/
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION 1. Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1338) (section 338) empowers the President to, among other things, impose duties on imports of a foreign country to offset the burden or disadvantage from a foreign country’s discrimination against or unequal imposition […]
The post Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Alcoholic Beverages appeared first on The White House.

### [E1500] White House Presidential Actions | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Motor Vehicles
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/imposing-additional-duties-to-offset-canadian-discrimination-against-the-commerce-of-the-united-states-with-respect-to-motor-vehicles/
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION 1. Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1338) (section 338) empowers the President to, among other things, impose duties on imports of a foreign country to offset the burden or disadvantage from a foreign country’s discrimination against or unequal imposition […]
The post Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Motor Vehicles appeared first on The White House.

### [E1501] White House Presidential Actions | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Dairy
URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/imposing-additional-duties-to-offset-canadian-discrimination-against-the-commerce-of-the-united-states-with-respect-to-dairy/
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION 1. Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1338) (section 338) empowers the President to, among other things, impose duties on imports of a foreign country to offset the burden or disadvantage from a foreign country’s discrimination against or unequal imposition […]
The post Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States with Respect to Dairy appeared first on The White House.

### [E1502] Bloomberg | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
US Vows Fresh 50% Tariff on Canada as New Trade War Looms
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-20/us-sets-50-tariff-on-some-canadian-goods-over-retaliation-claim
Container ships at the Port of Vancouver in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

The Trump administration vowed to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over what it said was unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy, further inflaming trade tensions between the two neighbors.

The items subject to the new tariff include milk and cream, hockey equipment and alcohol — but not major resource imports including energy, potash, fish and critical minerals. Goods covered by separate duties on industries, including autos and steel, will also be spared, according to a US official who briefed reporters on the move.

Crucially, there will be no exemptions for products under the existing North American trade pact between the US, Canada and Mexico, the official said.

The Canadian dollar dipped on the news to trade at C$1.4083 per US dollar shortly before 6 p.m. New York time.

If Trump follows through with the levies, which are set to take effect in 30 days, the move would mark one of the most severe trade actions he’s taken against the US’s second-largest trading partner. But Trump has made such threats before only to pull back after negotiations or because of market concerns. He signed a proclamation ordering the tariffs earlier Monday, the official said.

“I’m not going to react to that,” Canada Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said in an interview moments after the news was announced. “We’ve seen this sort of thing before.”

The tariffs are being applied under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which gives the president the power to impose duties of as much as 50% from countries deemed to discriminate against US commerce. The provision has never before been used to impose tariffs, according to the official.

Read More: US Decides Against Renewing USMCA, Shifting to Rolling Talks

Monday’s action threatens to further strain relations with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who joined Trump to view the World Cup final in New Jersey on Sunday. Last week, Trump threatened higher tariffs to punish Canada for the wildfire smoke that blanketed US cities including New York and Washington.

Further complicating the trade relationship, the US earlier this month declined to extend its trade agreement, known as USMCA, with Canada and Mexico, setting up what could be years of contentious negotiations. In January, Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods and services if Canada struck a trade deal with China. Nothing came of the threat.

The US action on Monday dates back in part to a decision by some Canadian provinces to pull US liquor and other products from the shelves in response to tariffs Trump imposed last year, around the time he repeatedly said Canada should become the 51st state.

“Specifically, Canada has taken U.S. alcohol products off Canadian shelves, given better market access to dairy products from the European Union, and has put a cap on U.S. vehicle exports to Canada from companies reshoring to the United States,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.

The senior administration official said the US was still exploring options linked to Trump’s threat but that Monday’s action was unrelated to wildfires.

For some of the products subject to the new tariff, Canadian exports to the US are not a significant part of overall bilateral trade. For example, Canada exported only C$391 million ($278 million) of dairy products to the US last year, according to Canadian government data.

Exports of beer, wine and spirits to the US totaled $1.9 billion in 2025, according to US trade data.

The two countries did almost $900 billion of trade in goods and services last year.

Since Trump returned to office last year, the president and his officials have pushed Canada for concessions and sometimes received them. A year ago, Carney’s government dropped a digital services tax that the US technology industry and the White House were opposed to. But weeks later, the president raised the tariff rate on Canadian goods anyway.

Then, last August, Carney announced he would drop many of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the US as the two sides were in negotiations. But Trump broke off those discussions in October.

Many Canadian exporters have been able to avoid tariffs through the use of the USMCA exemption. Available trade data that showed that 81% of Canadian imports were USMCA-compliant in May, up from 34% in February 2025, before Trump’s first volley of tariffs took effect.

Officials with the office of the prime minister and the Canada-US trade minister in Ottawa did not immediately return requests for comment.

— With assistance from Laura Dhillon Kane and Derek Decloet

(Updates with Hodgson quote, additional details throughout.)

### [E1514] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Trump imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods over alleged trade discrimination
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/20/trump-tariffs-canada-trade.html
Canada's relationship with the U.S. has frayed amid Trump's tariff-heavy agenda and vocal displeasure with the nations' trilateral trade pact with Mexico.

### [E1515] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-20 21:00 UTC | 收盘后
Trump imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods over alleged trade discrimination
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/20/trump-tariffs-canada-trade.html
Canada's relationship with the U.S. has frayed amid Trump's tariff-heavy agenda and vocal displeasure with the nations' trilateral trade pact with Mexico.

### [E1521] 财联社电报 | 2026-07-20 21:01 UTC | 收盘后
美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税
URL: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2431931
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2026年07月21日 05:01:31
财联社7月21日电，白宫称，美国将对加拿大相关商品加征额外关税，以抵消加拿大在酒类贸易方面对美国商业构成的歧视性措施。
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### [E1522] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-20 21:01 UTC | 收盘后
美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3137094
美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税

据央视报道，7月20日，白宫发布公告称，美国将对加拿大部分产品额外加征50%的从价关税，以应对“加拿大在汽车及汽车零部件贸易方面对美国采取的歧视性措施”。新关税将自美东时间8月19日凌晨00时01分起生效，并将在现有相关关税、税费及其他收费基础上叠加征收。 此次关税依据的是极少使用的《1930年关税法》第338条（Section 338），该条款赋予总统对“被发现歧视美国”的国家征收最高达50%关税的权力。 当天，加拿大股市收跌0.86%，美元兑加元涨0.4%、报1.4079，加拿大10年期国债收益率涨0.9个基点，报3.567%。

注： 1、美国总统特朗普近日威胁称，将因为加拿大山火造成的成本而对加国加征（惩罚性）关税。 2、近期，美国与墨西哥正积极（按年度计划）评审USMCA，相比之下、美国与加拿大的接触并不积极。

美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税

### [E1544] 新浪财经7x24 | 2026-07-20 21:10 UTC | 收盘后
【美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税】当地时间7月20日，白宫发布公告称，美国将对加拿大部分产品额外加征50%的从价关税，以应对“加拿大在汽车及汽车零部件贸易方面对美国采取的歧视性措施”。据称，新关税将自美东时间8月19日凌晨00时01...
URL: https://wap.cj.sina.cn/pc/7x24/4998489
【美国宣布对加拿大部分产品加征50%关税】当地时间7月20日，白宫发布公告称，美国将对加拿大部分产品额外加征50%的从价关税，以应对“加拿大在汽车及汽车零部件贸易方面对美国采取的歧视性措施”。据称，新关税将自美东时间8月19日凌晨00时01分起生效，并将在现有相关关税、税费及其他收费基础上叠加征收。（央视新闻）

### [E1555] First Squawk | 2026-07-20 21:13 UTC | 收盘后
U.S. TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFF ON MANY CANADIAN GOODS, INCLUDING SOME USMCA PRODUCTS, EFFECTIVE AUG. 19, 2026, WHILE EXEMPTING ENERGY, POTASH, AND CRITICAL MINERALS. || ADMINISTRATION CITES SECTION 338 AND ALLEGED DISCRIMINATORY CANADIAN POLICIE
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2079313854677586207
U.S. TO IMPOSE 50% TARIFF ON MANY CANADIAN GOODS, INCLUDING SOME USMCA PRODUCTS, EFFECTIVE AUG. 19, 2026, WHILE EXEMPTING ENERGY, POTASH, AND CRITICAL MINERALS. || ADMINISTRATION CITES SECTION 338 AND ALLEGED DISCRIMINATORY CANADIAN POLICIES ON ALCOHOL AND DAIRY AS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW TARIFFS.

### [E1592] Reuters | 2026-07-20 21:33 UTC | 收盘后
The United States is imposing a tariff of 50% ‌on a wide range of Canadian products in response to what it called Canada's 'discriminatory treatment' of US cars, alcohol and dairy, according to the White House https://reut.rs/4b2c91M
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2079318783047393777
The United States is imposing a tariff of 50% ‌on a wide range of Canadian products in response to what it called Canada's 'discriminatory treatment' of US cars, alcohol and dairy, according to the White House https://reut.rs/4b2c91M

### [E1603] USTR Trade Policy | 2026-07-20 21:38 UTC | 收盘后
Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on President Trump Imposing Section 338 Tariffs on Canada
URL: https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-president-trump-imposing-section-338-tariffs-canada
Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on President Trump Imposing Section 338 Tariffs on Canada

### [E1624] MarketWatch Top Stories | 2026-07-20 21:53 UTC | 收盘后
U.S. hits Canada with stiff new tariffs, escalating trade tensions
URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-hits-canada-with-stiff-new-tariffs-escalating-trade-tensions-4a97065f?mod=mw_rss_topstories
The Trump administration on Monday said it would slap 50% tariffs on some goods imported from Canada, in an effort to end what it sees as discriminatory trade practices by Ottawa against the U.S. automobile, dairy and alcohol industries.

### [E1587] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-07-20 21:30 UTC | 收盘后
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 05:00–05:30
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-21 05:00–05:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 199 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[05:00] This is balanceal of power live from Washington DC tonight.
[05:00] Iran will pay that message from president trump vowing revenge after the deaths of at least three U. service members what this means.
[05:00] for new ceasefire talks will discuss with retired lieutenant general ben hodges and congressman and marine corps veteran.
[05:00] CAlso from maine to south carolina two major developments tonight across two key senate races, including a decision.
[05:00] From dlene, the sister of late senator lindsey graraham will she run for her brother's seat and spoiler alert, why a federal judge?
[05:00] pausing the mega deal between paramount sky dance and warner brothers discovery as dozens of states sued to block the merger.
[05:00] Pr from Bberg's Washington Dc studios to our TVv and radio audiences worldwide. welcome to balanceal of power.
[05:01] side ke lines i'm joe matthew and joe, we begin tonight with breaking news on two fronts, both in geopolitics.
[05:01] Just crossing the terminal now the U.S. is imposing a 50% tariff on many canadian goods, including those under the usmcaA trade agreement.
[05:01] Though there will be exemptions for energy potash and critical minerals from that tariff that the U.S. is using section 338 authority4.
[05:01] Citing discriminatory actions by canada on alcohol and dairy that's what's happening on the trade front on the geopolitical front U.. central command.
[05:01] AnnoA new round of strikes against ir within the last hour this after the president posted on true social today quote time ir.
[05:01] An american soldier they will pay for that killing many times over in the aftermath of the death of three more service members this weekend.
[05:01] And as the attacks between the U.S and iran ratcheted up gas prices once again are topping $4 a gallon on average nationally.
[05:02] let's go now to the white house north lawn where bloomberg's kate sullivan is standing by so k this is now i believe the 10th day in a row of U..
[05:02] s on ir how much more could they widen and escalate, especially given the president's rhetoric that' right.
[05:02] ig open so as you mentioned just in the past hour the U has launched a new round of strikes on Iran10.
[05:02] And it comes after three us service members were killed over the weekend then now there are reports that mediators are really.
[05:02] Pushing to try to deescalate the war, bring talks back and.
[05:02] a new 10 day ceasefire, but we're hearing a very different message from the president right now, as you mentioned, the president is saying that Iran.
[05:02] Will pay for every u.. service member who is killed and the white house then doubled down on that sentiment and said, let me just read.
[05:02] for you they said the president is focused on making iran pay for their violations of the Mu and their continued.
[05:03] Of terrorism in the Strt ofOf course, the U is very focused on trying to reopen the Str of hos for that critical traffic through.
[05:03] In addition the statement says the president will make iran pay for the recent deaths of us.S. soldiers, these devastating blows will continue.
[05:03] Until the president deems otherwise, but talks between our countries are continuing now that last line will bring some confusion because as you.
[05:03] Remember in Turkey at the naTto summit, the president said that basically said talks with iran were a waste of time he did not say.
[05:03] Any faith in that diplomatic process, he said that jarred kushner and steve wkoff, who have been leading these talks, will continue to negotiate.
[05:03] But it does not appear that the president has really any faith, or at least what he's saying publicly is that he does not have any faith in those talks really being.
[05:03] So it's very unclear where this is going to go and again, this is now the 10th consecutive night of strikes.
[05:04] And the three American service members who lost their lives in the service to their country, the president is now.
[05:04] Going to be returning to dover according to the press secretary caroline levitt that dignified transfer will take place tomorrow evening.
[05:04] Will not be his first experience going's right so secretary Carol levitt.
[05:04] The president will be attending the dignified transfer that takes place at dover Air force basease in Delaware, as you mentioned joe.
[05:04] Not the first time the president has attended one of these dignified transfers since the war in iran has begun.
[05:04] The death toll of U.S. service members is now up to 17, and of course, many more have been injured throughout this war.
[05:04] Kate, thank you so much with us live from the white house bloomberg's kate sullivan and joining us now retired general ben hodges, former commanding general.
[05:04] Of U.S. Army Europe general, it's great to have you with us in person here in washing, welcome back to the nation's capitalit with everything that we just heard the developments over the week.
[05:05] And had some pretty tough headlines, some pretty tough fighting with three more service members now killed and the escalation that you have seen.
[05:05] Is the US still in control of this conflict Well, of course, these soldiers who have been killed, each one of them has a family.
[05:05] They also have teammates that will be missing them, so this is it's a part of it, but it's painful.
[05:05] Every single time, I don't know that we are in control of this war. we haven't had a clear strategy with a clearly.
[05:05] To finded end state from the beginning, I mean, the purpose for being there has evolved from supporting the approach.
[05:05] TestersTo stopping Iran from producing weapons or support for Hamas and Hezbollah to now open the Strrat.
[05:05] And get the oil flowing, so the absence of a strategy creates the sense that.
[05:06] Not under control and of course we always say that the enemy gets a vote too, and the Iranians seem to have actually increased their ability.
[05:06] To strike certain targets well yes, we see that they are doing so despite the president repeatedly suggesting that their.
[05:06] Military capabilities have been all but eradicated how can both things be true at the same time because they're not both true.
[05:06] The fact that our great Navyn Air Force have destroyed enormous amounts of Iranian military capability does not mean that the Iranians.
[05:06] OrWithout any other means it doesn't matter how many boats have been sunk. The fact is ships, captains and insurance.
[05:06] Companies are reluctant to have their tankers move through the strait, so the stit is still blocked.
[05:06] I think it would be helpful candidly if the Secretary of defense and the White House would be.
[05:06] More honest, instead of reporting, we've destroyed everything, that's, I mean, the president of the United States or Secretary of Defense, be more transparent.
[05:07] And also stop claiming these things, it does nothing because it's not relevant to what we think the in.
[05:07] And it can sow quite a bit of confusion, as we've seen now for the better part of five months if there are no diplomatic off ramps if the commander in chief himself.
[05:07] Says he has no faith in talks, Why wait around, why not go to all out war until Iran either comes to the table or there's a new.
[05:07] all that war to do what again, I hate to sound like a broken record, but that's the most important thing is to identify what.
[05:07] We're trying to do and in fact, you know, it would almost be worth considering and maybe at central command they've already done this.
[05:07] Step back a second instead of incrementally, okay, we're going to make you pay, we're opening up the gates of hell, that's not strategy.
[05:07] Instead, we understand what the Islamic Revolution of Guards core the RGC has now.
[05:08] We've learned a lot about Iran that maybe we didn't know beforehand, we've also learned about our own capabilities, what is the strategy now?
[05:08] Going forward, by the way, and I agree with what Admiral Stavrita said recently, now's the time to go back to our allies and say, okay.
[05:08] We should have invited you guys from the beginning, but all of us have a stake in this now, so think in terms of a broader diplomatic effort.
[05:08] Economic effort and still of course, building up capabilities to be prepared to achieve militarily what it is we.
[05:08] Well, i want to return to your point about the secretary of defense, pet hegseth, who is going to have to answer some of these questions tomorrow when he.
[05:08] Years before the senate appropriations committee there to make the case for a $1.5 trillion dollar defense budget and also for supplemental funding for the cost.
[05:08] Of this war, do you see this general as being fundamentally about munitions, restoring stockpiles and therefore ensuring our prepared?
[05:08] For the next fight what happens if pet hexseth doesn't get the funding he's asking for well you know i served three times an army congressional.
[05:09] aisonAnd we knew that we had to earn the confidence of the oversight committees, the house and Senate Ar services.
[05:09] House and Senatenate defense appropriations subcommittees, so there's a lot of trust and confidence there.
[05:09] It doesn't seem to me that the Pentagon has been very effective at earning the confidence everything is falling into.
[05:09] Partisan buckets instead of the Pentagon earning the confidence of the Congress. So, of course, the secretary has a.
[05:09] Very very challenging job to get the resources that they need, but they have been reluctant to go.
[05:09] The Congress, I mean, at this point to get congressional support and permission we're past the 60 days.
[05:09] Even if the administration says, well, we've had a ceasefire so the 60 day clock stops.
[05:10] trust to hillNow that the clock appears to be ticking again there was some remarkable reporting in the new york times following.
[05:10] We saw in Jordan over the weekend, not one but two ballistic missiles touching down, and this is why we had at least in part these America.
[05:10] tiesThe reporting would suggest that number one, we now realize that Iran has much more ample support.
[05:10] Of missiles than some had estimated, or at least the administration had telegraphed and two has become more adept at evading U.S. air.
[05:10] systemsHow is Iran managing this considering the sts and. Well, I think many of us may have underestimated the.
[05:10] Technical capabilities of the IRGC and Iranian military forces.
[05:10] They have been in the business of providing technology to Hezbollah and Houthis for quite some time now, so there is a.
[05:10] Technological capability that they have, I think that they anticipated that one day the U would finally actually attack them.
[05:11] Directly, and I think maybe they were more prepared for it than I would have expected, but there's no doubt that they are a learning.
[05:11] EnI also believe that I have no doubt that China and Russia are supporting them, not only.
[05:11] Intelligence, but materially, and I think the sooner we that the administration acknowledges that and then puts pressure on.
[05:11] Moscowscow and Beijing, then that will help the best way to defeat Iran is to defeat Russia.
[05:11] First, Iran has no friends other than Russia to help Ukraine defeat Russia, and that would isolate Iran more.
[05:11] Well, is the sanctions package that seems like it has new momentum on capitol hill in the aftermath of the death of senator lindsey graraham is that going to help?
[05:11] Potentially Ukraine it will certainly help if those sanctions are enforced.
[05:12] Sanctions on somebody or what some country is part of it, but you have to really follow through and enforce, and there's been too many times.
[05:12] Where the administration has let the Russians off the hook, have wavedd things, there are some components that are made by may.
[05:12] And companies that end up in Russian missiles, how can that be, I think we are not tightening that enough.
[05:12] Amazing number today, the midterm elections are 106 days away with gas.
[05:12] Now back above $4 a gallon, do you think this conflict is still underway in nober I absolutely believe it will be now it may not look like a.
[05:12] But the other way to ask it then is or say it is, I don't believe it'll be solved.
[05:12] are going through the stit and even if they did get going this week back to normal flow.
[05:12] I don't think prices respond that quickly back to pre Februaryb prices have to leave it there.
[05:13] Gene ben hodges joining us here in our washington dc studio sir thank you so much for your time and still ahead, we'll have more on the break.
[05:13] News crossing the terminal just moments ago the us.. set to impose a 50% tariff on many canadian goods will have the details.
[05:13] Also oil swinging between gains and losses today on the threat of escalation in the middle east that we were just discussing even as mediators push for peace.
[05:13] With Michelchelle brorowhard, the head of policy and geopolitical risk at keppller, next on balance of Power on Blueberg TV and radio.
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[05:14] sOn the day's top stories In with Ha Linda on only on Blueloomback.
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[05:15] What is going to be the consequence?
[05:15] we seen bonus gainss across European equity markets a look how we're faring when it comes Asia.
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[05:16] Welcome back to balance of power on bloomberg tv and radio i'm kylely liness alongside joe matthew and that was the newly sworn in br.
[05:16] Minister andy burnham in his first remarks as pm today one day on the job in already spooking the bond market as he talked about wanting to see any.
[05:16] Fiscal flexibility possible and that sent guilt yields higher across the curve, but especially at the long end of8 basis points on the tenure g9 on.
[05:16] 30 year to 574 roughly and that saw follow through in U.. treasuries today with bond yields moving higher by about four basis points.
[05:17] 459 where we traded on the tenure at the end of the day as for what was happening in equity markets it was a mostly lower day interesting.
[05:17] He 500 was only down about2 tenths of percent at the close, even though most stocks within the index were lower probably would have been a bigger downday if not for the.
[05:17] The poor provided by semiconductors which had a bit of a bounce back today with the stock index up by about6 tenths of 1%2 stocks to call out in particular.
[05:17] In this edition of power moves warner brothers discovery and paramount skyd warner brothers discovery actually falling to the lowest level since december.
[05:17] The better part of 4% on the day after a judge pause that merger for now we'll see what happens at a hearing in two weeks on august 3.
[05:17] But the judge right now saying that that merger likely violates antitrust laws finally we have to note oil as well because it was a bit of a whip saw session.
[05:17] He saw brrenent crude rising above $91 a barrel at what point on escalating tension between the U.S. and iran as well as the threat from the hohi rebels.
[05:18] In Yemen to cut off the red Sea to sdi ara, that of course, has been a critical alternate route since the Strait of Hms has been so difficult for the ss.
[05:18] At energy exports out of brrenent did come though off the highs of the session as we saw reports that mediators are pushing for some kind of short term truce.
[05:18] Between the U. and iran still brent and to the day just shy of $89 a barrel, we were roughly $83 a barrel on wti Joee.
[05:18] And joining us now on the major oil moves are not so major as the case today was that we're seeing out of the region mile brohard, the head of policy.
[05:18] political risk at keper it's great to have you back, michle, i have to admit we woke up to the headlines of all out war in the Middle East.
[05:18] A warning from houthhi rebels in yemen that they were going to blockade saudi arabia, i thought we'd have a massive jump in.
[05:18] Brent wT up less than 1% each is the market paying attention.
[05:18] Attention the market is exhausted, I mean, aren't we all a little bit exhausted by what what's happening I think that we.
[05:19] Starting to see, I think some people were long into the sell off and so as oil prices have started to come up, they wanted to take off their positions.
[05:19] I haven't traded the market in a few months, so I can't be confident that that's what's happened, but I think that that was probably part of it.
[05:19] Other part of it is there is still this there were some headlines that Iran and the US had reached some sort of.
[05:19] Casefire for six days, I know that's a very brief time period, but there were some rumors about that as well, starting to creep into the market.
[05:19] Sometimes when there's smoke, there's fire, and so we may see something that establishes some sort of ceasefire in the coming days between Iran.
[05:19] The U or even the Houthis stand down Well, even if you were to get some kind of interim agreement.
[05:19] Last ceasefire still had plenty of fire in it, michelle and i wonder if you see that even if there is an interim tru that that is going to be enough to give.
[05:20] Shipperpers and crews enough confidence to try to transit through the Strrat of Hmz or the Red sea for that matter.
[05:20] I think we're getting to the point now where the Strait ofor moves and the Red Sea, for that matter need to have a new framework.
[05:20] The framework of the freedom of the seas, that framework is broken and it's going to be really hard to put that back into place you're going to need to have.
[05:20] A new framework that gives commercial vessels confidence to be able to pass through the boat either straight and I think that's going to look some.
[05:20] That's going to look like something much more structured than just military deterrences sitting in the street trying.
[05:20] To move move ships through there, you need something that now gives the market some confidence and that's going to take a while to form.
[05:20] Does that structure include a toll booth, michle think it does include a toll booth.
[05:20] Framework that looks like a security framework and of course the fee is not going to be called at toll, it'll be called something like maritime security or.
[05:21] It'll be rebranded into something that is a little more digestible, but I think certainly something needs to happen where these countries come together.
[05:21] WhetherWhether it's a coalition of the Arab nations or whether it's an international framework that looks similar to the IMO.
[05:21] In't necessarily the IMO, but something needs to come about that will give some structure and a framework that will be a neutral party to.
[05:21] Allow commercial vessels to feel comfortable passing through the strait at this point the confidence has been eroded either in the marketplace.
[05:21] As well as in shipras well, can that come together more quickly than these exporters can find workarounds?
[05:21] Shell I think it can come together faster than the exporters can find work around, I don't think it can come quicker faster.
[05:21] the market starts to feel the pinch or starts to become constrained and I think we I don't know if we talked about this on the last time.
[05:22] But the real constraint is refined products where we're not seeing refined products climb out of the Middle East, but we also are Russian refined.
[05:22] Products that are constrain. So while crude oil is certainly congested in some places, it has had some real herculean responses with China.
[05:22] These imports dropping off Saudi and the UAD being able to reroute some of their crudes in the SPR so the crude oil price.
[05:22] Have been able to see some sort of softness just from all three of those responses, but refined products continue to remain significant.
[05:22] crude they have our attention as well we've got gasoline back above $4 on average and diesel at5.
[05:22] Michle, with all of that said, you, we're in the throes of hurricane season here and it wouldn't take a lot.
[05:22] To change the narrative around crude oil supplies or refining capacity and another headline that we woke up to.
[05:22] Today, the SPR has a 43 day supply, is that accurate based on your observations?
[05:23] That's something investors should be worried about, it's obviously there for a crisis, but we use it in very different ways now.
[05:23] 43 days of supply means exactly versus what like does that mean 43 days of supply based on net imports, 43 days supply?
[05:23] Of global shortages, I don't necessarily know what the 43 day supply means, what I do know is is we have drawn down 100 million barrels.
[05:23] Of the US SPPR that remains that there's 70 million barrels left remaining in the commitment from the US into the IEA.
[05:23] SPR release that came out with the 400 million barrels so we still have and if we're releasing a million barrels today that's 70 days of.
[05:23] SPR that can still come into the marketplace, I don't know if that 43 days is after and how many does that is that a release of?
[05:23] B today or have a release of I don I don't there needs to be significantly more detail around 43 days it sounds traumatic.
[05:24] But it's probably it's probably the SPR has lots of problems, right, structurally it has lots of problems, you can draw it down to zero but there.
[05:24] I think that the U.S will meet their commitment of 172 money barrels and so we have 70 money barrels left that can be released.
[05:24] Consider the global energy picture, we just saw headlines at the top of the hour, michle that the U.S. is getting ready to impose a 50% tariff on.
[05:24] productsIn 30 days, though there are exceptions, including for energy imports, how crucial is that given the precar?
[05:24] Energy situation the U and the rest of the world find itself in Well, it's really concerning Kae, one of the reasons.
[05:24] It's concerning to me as an American is that the US is energy independent because of Canada, right Canada is.
[05:24] Basically held hostage by the United States, they only really have one outlet, which means that the Canadians need to start building infrastructure away from the United States.
[05:24] So antagonizing Canada, who has been our largest supplier, and has really been the reason why the USS has been able to have cheat.
[05:25] Energy prices for decades is because of Canada and if Canada decides that they want to reroute their oil to Asia.
[05:25] Or to Europe, if they want to build a pipeline across to the east, then you're really running into the fact that Canada is going to have much more diverse.
[05:25] ified energy economy then they currently have now, which really they have a small outlet to the west Coast that is.
[05:25] Let's call a million barrels a day and be generous, but most of their oil still comes to the United States in addition to that we.
[05:25] Our border is integrated with electricity, natural gas, oil, refined products.
[05:25] And they have the option to perhaps use that as a weapon if they chose to All right, we'll leave there.
[05:25] Sheelle brohard, thanks so much for joining us and we'll have more still ahead here on balance of power as we speak with democratic congressman jake Aenloss of Massachusettsachett next.
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## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。