美伊冲突与霍尔木兹/红海航运风险升级推升油价，亚洲油气、炼厂和航司映射分化但不形成新开仓

# 美股盘后催化 5/11: 美伊冲突和霍尔木兹/红海航运风险升级，油价大涨并传导至航空与能源成本

- 美股会话: 2026-07-22
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 供需/价格；规划重大性: 9/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：特朗普威胁伊朗若袭击霍尔木兹船只将打击桥梁或发电厂，伊朗威胁报复区域能源基础设施并称若伊朗不能出口石油则其它国家也不能；胡塞和油轮袭击消息加剧航运风险，WTI/Brent结算大涨约3%，Southwest因燃油成本上升下调全年利润目标。推断：上游油气、油服、部分油运和防务受益，航空、化工、炼化采购端、物流、消费和长久期成长承压；EIA库存增加和特朗普称油价会回落构成反向证据。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- XOM.US (XOM.US): 154.45 +1.81%
- CVX.US (CVX.US): 192.98 +1.00%
- OXY.US (OXY.US): 57.5 +1.77%
- LUV.US (LUV.US): 47.66 -2.12%
- DAL.US (DAL.US): 83.52 -1.31%
- UAL.US (UAL.US): 117.26 -0.37%
- AAL.US (AAL.US): 14.79 -3.21%
- KMI.US (KMI.US): 32.49 +0.34%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 中国海洋石油 (0883.HK) [HK/同源本地股/positive]: Brent上涨通常直接提升上游油气盈利预期。；核验问题: 核实产量指引、油价弹性、套保和汇率影响。
- S-Oil (010950.KS) [KR/同源本地股/mixed]: 原油成本上升和库存收益、柴油裂解价差改善并存，炼厂方向取决于价差。；核验问题: 核实亚洲炼油价差、中东原油采购比例和库存重估收益。
- 日本航空 (9201.JP) [JP/同源本地股/negative]: 航油成本与中东空域风险可能压缩利润率。；核验问题: 核实燃油套保比例、航线暴露和燃油附加费传导。
- 大韩航空 (003490.KS) [KR/同源本地股/negative]: 长航线和货运业务对燃油价格及绕航成本敏感。；核验问题: 核实燃油对冲、货运合约和中东/欧洲航线影响。

## 必答问题

- 霍尔木兹和红海实际通航量、保险费和运费是否持续恶化？
- 高油价是否继续推高美债收益率和央行预期？
- 亚洲航司和炼厂的套保/价差能否抵消油价冲击？

## 原始证据全文（20 条）

### [E0526] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-22 14:16 UTC | 盘中
Trump vows to bomb Iran's bridges, power plants if it shoots at ships in Hormuz Strait
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-.html
President Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed that the U.S. will blow up an Iranian bridge or power plant — including those in the country's capital city of Tehran — every time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
The threat, delivered via a Truth Social post, ratchets up hostilities between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic that were already inflamed following the collapse of their ceasefire and the recent deaths of three American service members, whose remains Trump was scheduled to receive later Wednesday.
"From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT," Trump's post read.
Those targets include "those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran," Trump specified.
Trump has previously threatened to attack Iran's electrical plants, water facilities and other infrastructure. Experts have warned that such attacks could constitute war crimes under international law.
Earlier Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of not being "serious" about making a deal with the U.S., while reiterating that Washington was "committed to diplomacy" in the Middle East.
His comments come as U.S. Central Command hit Iranian targets for an 11th straight night as it continues to try to clear the Hormuz Strait, the vital oil-shipping route that has become Tehran's key source of leverage in the war.
Centcom said it had hit military operations centers, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.
Speaking at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in the Philippines, Rubio said a key sticking point between Teheran and Washington was that Iran "demands the right" to control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a right it does not have under international law.
"If we create a precedent in the Middle East, where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll, and if you don't pay them, blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent, which will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including in this region," Rubio warned.
Rubio appeared to make a veiled reference to China, saying that "of all the regions in the world, the one I don't need to teach about the importance of freedom of navigation in international waterways, it is this region."
In separate comments made later in the day, Rubio said Washington remains willing to negotiate an end to the war.
"The U.S. would love to reach a diplomatic settlement, we'd love to reach an agreement if it were possible with Iran … where they say we'll no longer sponsor terrorism and we will not pursue a nuclear weapon or the things that you need for a nuclear weapon," he said.
But he also said that "right now they don't seem to be serious" about making a deal, adding that Tehran had made commitments in last month's memorandum of understanding "and within two weeks violated it."
The U.S. Navy has in the past conducted "freedom of navigation" operations around disputed islands in the South China Sea, where several Southeast Asian countries have competing claims with China, whose "nine-dash line" claims almost all of the sea as its waters.
That is despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that said that China's claims has no basis under international law. China has refused to recognize that outcome.
Oil prices pop
Oil prices jumped on Wednesday morning. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery rose 3.7% to $94.33 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with September delivery advanced 3.5% to $87.28.
U.S. and Iran had signed an interim memorandum of understanding on June 17 that halted military operations, called for the reopening of Hormuz and established a 60-day window for negotiating a permanent agreement, including terms covering Iran's nuclear program. But the document left the future management of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.
Iran interpreted the text as recognizing a role for Tehran in managing traffic through the strait and potentially charging for maritime services after an initial 60-day period, but the U.S. maintained that the waterway must remain open without compulsory Iranian fees or restrictions.
Iran and Oman — which also border the Hormuz Strait — said in a joint June 23 statement that "All arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz must fully respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the two Coastal States of the Strait."

### [E0857] Bloomberg | 2026-07-22 14:55 UTC | 盘中
US, Iran Suggest Peace Talks Aren’t Imminent as Attacks Widen
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-22/us-iran-suggest-peace-talks-aren-t-imminent-as-attacks-widen
The US and Iran signaled they aren’t ready to return to the negotiating table after both countries escalated attacks deep into a second week of renewed fighting.

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the Islamic Republic will pay a big price for the deaths of four US troops in the past week. He earlier vowed on social media that the US “will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT,” including those around Tehran, any time Iran’s military “shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan — which along with Qatar has been the main mediator in the near five-month conflict — but there was no sign his meetings were productive.

“There are no negotiations — it’s only possible for there to be an exchange of messages,” a spokesman for the Iranian ministry said after the Tuesday visit, according to semi-official Mehr news agency. “Our new message is that the enemy violated the memorandum and should implement it,” he added, referring to the June 17 interim peace agreement that’s now effectively obsolete.

If the US strikes bridges or power plants, “Iran will strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities in which the US has interests,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, citing an informed military source.

The US widened the scope of its airstrikes on Iran overnight, with American forces striking a military site near the north-western city of Tabriz, according to Iranian media. That’s the first time the area is thought to have been hit since hostilities between the warring sides worsened two weeks ago.

The Iranian government activated air defenses early on Wednesday in Tehran, the capital, local media reported, adding that the US struck Abdanan and Chovar in the west, near the border with Iraq.

That was the 11th straight day of attacks on Iran, which again fired on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Read More: US Allies in Persian Gulf Exasperated as Iran War Escalates

Oil prices have jumped in the past fortnight, and Brent crude traded up 2.9% to close to $94 a barrel in London on Wednesday. Refined fuel prices, including wholesale diesel in Europe, are also surging.

Bond markets have reacted, with US 10- and 30-year Treasury yields rising to roughly two-month highs on concern inflationary pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The US says it will intensify its bombing campaign until Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacking energy tankers and other ships going through the vital waterway.

So far, Iran isn’t backing down. Tehran has insisted on maintaining control of traffic through the strait, an issue that’s scuppered progress on other contentious topics, including Iran’s nuclear program.

The Iran-backed Houthis, meanwhile, have threatened to open another front in the war, telling shippers they could be targeted if they try to call at Saudi Arabian ports. The Yemen-based group is now ready for maritime attacks from positions near the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, according to an alert from the Joint Maritime Information Center, a global monitoring body for naval security.

Saudi-Led Coalition in Yemen Vows to Protect Ships From Houthis How Houthis’ Red Sea Threat Risks Bigger Oil Shock: Explainer GLOBAL REACT: Houthis’ Red Sea Blockade Risks Oil Above $100

Trump says US operations are seriously degrading Iran’s military power, even as the Islamic Republic continues firing on ships in Hormuz. Tehran is also causing extensive harm to US troops and bases. Late Tuesday, the Pentagon said a 28-year-old army sergeant who had been missing was now believed to have been killed last Friday during an attack on an air base in Jordan.

Her death is the fourth US fatality over the past week, with two other troops being killed in Jordan, and another dying from an attack on northern Iraq.

On Wednesday, Trump flew to Dover, Delaware to witness the return of some of the fallen soldiers’ remains.

Read More: Trump Meets Lebanon’s Aoun as Israel Withdraws From Towns

Iran says the 11 days of US attacks have killed more than 50 people and wounded more than 500.

Trump said Tuesday in response to a question that Iran “probably” is trying to influence the midterm elections in November with its attacks in the strait, which have pushed up US gasoline prices. He reiterated more military action is likely and suggested he’d strike Pickaxe Mountain, which the US and Israel suspect is a nuclear site.

“If we left tomorrow, we had a big, we had a big success,” Trump said of Iran. “But we’re not leaving tomorrow.”

Iran vowed to respond with a “powerful strike” to any attack on its nuclear facilities or other sensitive infrastructure. Esmail Baghaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said on X that the focus on Pickaxe Mountain was “a fabricated pretext for aggression.”

If the US sets foot on Iranian soil, “it will face millions of people who will confront them with everything they have,” state TV cited Army Commander-in-Chief Amir Hatami as saying.

Read More: Hegseth Says US War Against Iran Has Cost $37.5 Billion

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators on Tuesday that the war had cost Washington $37.5 billion so far. In late May, government officials had put that figure at $29 billion, which some experts criticized as an understatement. Hegseth was on Capitol Hill pushing for a $67 billion supplemental defense-spending bill.

### [E1077] Reuters | 2026-07-22 15:25 UTC | 盘中
Trump: US will attack Iranian bridge, power plant for every ship targeted in Hormuz http://reut.rs/4wWzFWj http://reut.rs/4wWzFWj
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2079950887271731711
Trump: US will attack Iranian bridge, power plant for every ship targeted in Hormuz http://reut.rs/4wWzFWj http://reut.rs/4wWzFWj

### [E1171] Business Insider | 2026-07-22 15:39 UTC | 盘中
Oil is surging again as market pros warn of 'cascading damage' to energy markets
URL: https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-crude-supply-shortage-iran-war-2026-7
It was only a few weeks ago that markets considered the worst-case scenario for oil to be off the table. The US and Iran had reached a preliminary peace agreement. Oil prices, the key flashpoint of the Iran war, were falling rapidly. All seemed to be going well.
That's no longer the case, energy forecasters say, with crude prices surging again as fighting in the Middle East resumes and confidence has broken down in a resolution between the US and Iran. Now, energy markets are looking at the same dire outcome they saw earlier in the year: a supply shortage that could send prices spiraling higher, weighing on businesses and the economy.
Oil prices surged again on Wednesday as traders absorbed the latest developments. Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped nearly 4% to $94.25 a barrel and US crude rose 3% to $87, as the US conducted its 11th round of strikes against Iran and State Secretary Marco Rubio said that Iran was "not serious about talks."
Brent broke through the $90 seal for the first time in weeks on Tuesday after President Trump said Iran would pay "many times over" for attacks that killed US soldiers over the weekend, and that the military would bomb Pickaxe Mountain, an Iranian underground nuclear facility.
Gas prices also jumped past $4 a gallon on Monday, reflecting how consumers are already feeling the pain of the latest price surge.
Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said his team is watching for the risk of "non-linear cascading damage" in energy markets, largely due to an emerging chokepoint in the world oil supply chain. Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted back to near-zero, he wrote in a client note on Wednesday.
The US, meanwhile, has significantly depleted its oil reserves. Stocks in the US's Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 3.1 million barrels in the last week, the lowest level recorded since 1983, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
Sløk pointed to wider crack spreads, or the difference between the price of crude and refined petroleum products. Wider spreads suggest that profit margins for oil refiners are increasing, which lifts demand and contributes to the tightness in supply.
"The real tail risk emerges if inventories at critical nodes like airports or power plants suddenly run dry," Sløk said.
HFI Research, a contrarian energy investment research firm, doubled down on its thesis that oil prices could soar as high as $150 a barrel, topping Brent's peak during the Great Financial Crisis.
The firm also pointed to wider crack spreads as one precursor of future supply tightness. The 3-2-1 crack spread — an industry benchmark that reflects refiners' profits from refining 3 barrels of crude into 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate fuel — is at a record $70 per bundle, equivalent to around $23 per barrel, the firm wrote in a Substack note last week.
Spreads that high suggest both oil and oil products are "mispriced," the firm said. For comparison, the 3-2-1 spread clocked in at around $27 per bundle, or $9 per barrel in July of last year, according to data from RBN Energy.
"The market, the efficient part at least, has been screaming that we have a product shortage," HFI wrote in a Substack note last week.
Flows coming out of the Strait of Hormuz have slowed "to a trickle" in recent weeks, the firm said. It speculated that the bottleneck would be felt more acutely this week, leading to a "natural upward trajectory" in oil prices.
Brent hitting $150 a barrel would imply another 68% increase in price.
"At today's refining margins, we are already at $150/bbl. The very thing that the US is trying to prevent is happening regardless," the firm wrote.

### [E1242] Reuters | 2026-07-22 15:50 UTC | 盘中
Oil prices ‌rose to their highest in almost six weeks on concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes because of escalating hostilities between the US and Iran and threats to shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2079957138395562025
Oil prices ‌rose to their highest in almost six weeks on concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes because of escalating hostilities between the US and Iran and threats to shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen https://reut.rs/4fu8RWv

### [E1580] 财联社电报 | 2026-07-22 17:08 UTC | 盘中
特朗普威胁：若伊朗袭击船只 美方将轰炸其桥梁和发电厂
URL: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2434427
①特朗普称若伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡向船只发起武器袭击，美国将摧毁伊朗包括德黑兰在内的桥梁、发电厂； ②美国国务卿鲁比奥表示伊朗无权控制霍尔木兹海峡，美仍愿在伊放弃核武等前提下通过外交方式解决冲突。
财联社7月23日讯（编辑 牛占林）据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间周三表示，今后只要伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡向船只发射导弹、火箭弹、无人机或使用其他任何武器发动攻击，美国就将摧毁伊朗一座桥梁或一座发电厂，其中包括位于伊朗首都德黑兰及其周边地区的相关基础设施。
特朗普当天在其社交平台Truth Social上发表上述言论。这一最新威胁进一步加剧了美伊之间本已高度紧张的局势。此前，美伊停火协议破裂，加之三名美军士兵近日身亡，特朗普计划于周三稍晚出席迎接三人遗体返国仪式。
“从现在开始，只要伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡向任何船只发射导弹、火箭弹、无人机，或使用任何其他装置或武器发动袭击，美国都将轰炸并摧毁伊朗一座桥梁或一座发电厂。”特朗普还特别强调，打击目标也包括“位于首都德黑兰或其附近的桥梁和发电厂”。
此前一天，特朗普曾表示，美国“可能很快会猛烈打击”伊朗的“镐山”地下核设施。以色列情报部门认为，伊朗已将部分先进铀浓缩离心机转移并埋藏于该设施内。
针对特朗普的最新表态，伊朗方面回应称，若美国兑现上述威胁，伊朗将打击美国在中东地区相关利益所涉及的基础设施和能源设施。
伊朗军方消息人士称：“如果美国袭击伊朗的桥梁或发电厂，伊朗将反击本地区的基础设施和桥梁，包括美国拥有利益的能源设施。”
该消息人士还表示，伊朗仍决心掌控霍尔木兹海峡的通行秩序，只有在与伊朗协调并按照伊方安排航行的情况下，船只才能安全通过该海峡。
特朗普此前也曾威胁，将攻击伊朗的发电设施、供水系统及其他基础设施。部分国际法专家认为，此类针对民用基础设施的打击可能构成国际法意义上的战争罪。
而事实上，近几周来，美军已明显扩大对伊朗的空袭力度，打击目标包括美国官员所称用于运输军事装备的桥梁，以及雷达系统、导弹和无人机发射阵地等位于霍尔木兹海峡附近的军事设施。
鲁比奥：伊朗无权控制霍尔木兹海峡
当天稍早，美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，伊朗目前并未“认真”推进与美国达成协议，但强调美国政府仍致力于通过外交途径解决中东问题。
与此同时，美国中央司令部已连续第11个夜晚对伊朗目标实施打击。当天打击目标包括伊朗军事行动指挥中心、无人机储存设施以及军事后勤基础设施。
鲁比奥表示，美伊谈判的主要分歧之一在于，伊朗要求获得对霍尔木兹海峡航运的控制权，而根据国际法，伊朗并不享有这一权利。
他补充说：“如果我们在中东开创这样一个先例——一个主权国家可以自行决定控制一条国际航道、向过往船只收取通行费，若拒绝缴费便炸毁船只，那么我们将制造一个极其危险的先例。这种做法未来还会在世界其他地区重演，包括本地区。”
鲁比奥稍后再次表示，美国仍愿意通过谈判结束当前冲突。“如果可能，美国非常希望通过外交方式解决问题，非常希望与伊朗达成协议……前提是伊朗承诺不再支持恐怖主义，也不再寻求核武器，以及制造核武器所需的相关能力。”
受中东局势持续升级影响，国际油价周三再度走高。美盘交易时段，9月交割的布伦特原油期货上涨3.7%，报每桶94.33美元；9月交割的WTI原油期货上涨3.5%，报每桶87.28美元。

### [E1602] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-22 17:16 UTC | 盘中
Two Wars Put Stranglehold on Global Energy Supplies
URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/global-economy-is-suddenly-fighting-an-energy-stranglehold-on-three-fronts-93f28d2b
The global economy suddenly finds its energy supplies threatened on three fronts simultaneously: the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea and the Black Sea. The world goes into these disruptions with the lowest levels of oil reserves in years.

Conflict in the Middle East broadened this week with Tehran-backed Houthi militants turning tankers back from the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The Red Sea maritime chokepoint, which has become the biggest export route for Saudi Arabia’s crude following the Strait of Hormuz closure, accounted for roughly 12% of the world’s seaborne oil flows before the war.

Another disruption: Ukraine has mounted sustained attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea. A barrage of strikes in the waters near the port of Novorossiysk, which handles nearly a third of Russia’s oil exports, paused flows through a pipeline that delivers Russian and Kazakh oil to the Black Sea.

The closing of the three chokepoints collectively imperils roughly a quarter of the world’s oil supply and provides a fresh test of the ability of energy-hungry economies to adapt.

Oil is at the heart of two major conflicts consuming the world’s attention. Iran’s ability to starve the world of supply from the Gulf has emerged as its most potent form of leverage against the U.S. Ukraine has increasingly disrupted Russia’s energy exports and domestic fuel markets, giving Kyiv unexpected momentum in the four-year-old conflict.

Four ships sustained damage near the Black Sea pipeline in recent days, including a tanker chartered by Chevron and owned by Greek shipper Aristidis Alafouzos, chief executive of Okeanis Eco. He said the attacks are “a systematic threat to the arteries of the world’s energy supply and to the safety of those who keep them flowing.”

The multipronged crisis comes at a precarious time for energy markets. In the U.S., crude oil inventories—which include commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—fell by 3 million barrels in the week ended July 17 to reach the lowest level since the middle of the Reagan administration.

Government-controlled inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of mostly wealthy countries, dropped another 44 million barrels in June from the May level, which was already the lowest since December 1990.

“The large strategic stock releases earlier in the conflict have meaningfully depleted the buffer available for any future disruption,” said Mick Strautmann, a market analyst at ship tracker Vortexa.

Crude-oil prices jumped above $95 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since June 10, before the U.S. and Iran signed their memorandum of understanding.

But the real pain in markets lies in the products refined from crude oil, the gasoline and diesel that power cars, trucks, tractors and jets. Prices at U.S. gas pumps rose above $4 a gallon this week in the midst of summer driving season and are likely heading even higher.

The reason: Two of the world’s largest exporters of refined oil products, Russia and the Middle East, are now crippled by conflict.

Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries have knocked out a chunk of the refining capacity of the world’s second-largest diesel exporter. Russian crude-processing rates are now at the lowest in more than two decades, averaging less than 4 million barrels a day this month, according to figures compiled by EA Analytics.

After long lines formed at gas stations, Russia banned exports of diesel on July 8 through to the end of July. Russia already had restrictions on shipments of gasoline and jet fuel before the outright ban. The move sent shock waves through a market that relied on Russia for roughly 11% of global diesel exports last year.

“Ukrainian drone strikes have hit every one of Russia’s largest refineries at some point this year,” said Isabelle Gilks, principal analyst of retail fuels at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

That has taken more than a third of Russian’s capacity offline and Russian diesel exports fell to around half of the level at the same time last year, Gilks said.

“Repairs to Russian refineries are likely to be slow because sanctions make it hard to source replacement parts and specialists,” she said, adding that a less damaging wave of attacks last year took months to recover.

The re-closing of the Persian Gulf has also set back efforts to resupply the world’s fuel reserves. The region had supplied roughly a fifth of Europe’s diesel and half of its jet fuel.

Unlike crude exports that have been partially rerouted through pipelines to the Red Sea or Gulf of Oman, refined products exports have few alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said. As a result, crude supply has recovered faster than refined products supply over the past months.

That has left a yawning gap between the price of crude oil and diesel or gasoline. The difference, known in the industry as the “crack spread” named after the cracking process that refines crude into its constituent products, has widened to its highest in years in Europe and the U.S.

“There isn’t enough refining capacity running to turn the available crude into product—which keeps a lid on crude, and at the same time leaves product markets scrambling,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Refiners stand to benefit from the crack spread, which is also a rough measure of their profit margins.

The other big winners are shipowners, who are chartering out their vessels at high rates as fewer ships are available globally.

That dynamic is exacerbated by the situation in the Red Sea. When the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean is completely shut, vessels can still get to Asia. But this requires a massive detour north through the Suez Canal, west through the Strait of Gibraltar, and then south around the Cape of Good Hope—adding 10 to 15 days of journey time, according to ship tracker Kpler.

Routes for Saudi oil to reach China

Suez Canal*

China

Yanbu

Saudi

Arabia

Pacific

Ocean

Bab al-Mandeb

Current route, since

Strait of Hormuz's closure

Indian

Atlantic

Alternative route

adds 10–15 days

Cape of Good Hope

Strait of Hormuz's

closure

There is another practical barrier. When fully loaded, the VLCCs, or very large crude carriers that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, sit too deep in the water to pass through the Suez Canal. Shippers would have to operate supertankers on partial loads.

These longer and less efficient journeys will tie up more tankers capacity and push up shipping costs for Asian refiners.

A senior Houthi official, Hizam al-Assad, a member of the group’s political bureau, said on X that attempts to bypass restrictions by shipping oil through the Mediterranean is “nothing short of utter stupidity.” He implied that Houthi forces could target Saudi oil-production facilities, something they have done in the past. “The next steps could involve shutting off the tap altogether,” he said.

### [E1676] Financial Times | 2026-07-22 17:38 UTC | 盘中
Greek tycoon’s tanker towed into Iranian waters
URL: https://www.ft.com/content/0c0b1e83-8e5e-4c86-b9c6-179dba51fc69?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Greek tycoon’s tanker towed into Iranian waters
A tanker belonging to the Greek shipping tycoon George Prokopiou appears to have been towed into Iranian waters, according to satellite images, after being hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday night.
The Kavomaleas was hit by two projectiles while sailing in the direction of the Gulf off the Omani coast on Sunday night, as part of a string of Iranian attacks on western shipping this week that have once again brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near-standstill.
The strikes caused a fire in the engine room, forcing the crew to evacuate the ship.
European Space Agency satellite images from July 21 show a ship with the same dimensions and deck colour as the Kavomaleas, and a plume of smoke rising from its engine, in Iranian waters close to Larak Island off the coast of Iran. The area of sea in which the vessel was hit is now empty.
Shipping analysts said that it was highly likely that the ship had been captured and towed into Iranian waters.
Dynacom is among the most audacious shipping companies, often taking trades in parts of the world that others avoid. It has sent at least 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in February.
Prokopiou last month likened his actions to the Greek merchants who broke through the blockade between the French and British in the Napoleonic Wars.
“Greece has a tradition of breaking blockades since antiquity,” he said, adding: “I don’t want to go into more details, but I believe the hints are enough to understand what I mean.”
The Kavomaleas, a one-year-old ship, had been due to pick up more than 500,000 barrels of oil in the Gulf. Vessels of its size and class usually cost about $55mn to buy new. The satellite image also shows a slick of oil following the ship.
Dynacom said that any operation to move the ship had not been approved by the company and that they were “trying to verify” its whereabouts.
It did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the satellite images but it did confirm that another Dynacom ship, the Acheloos, was also hit on Sunday night while carrying 2mn barrels of oil.
More than 45 ships have been struck in the conflict, but the seizure would only mark the third such capture of a vessel by the Iranians since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took two container ships, both operated by the world’s largest container shipping line MSC, in April. Negotiations to release the ships and crew are ongoing, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Following the breakdown of the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran that lasted 21 days, Iran has reignited its attacks on shipping as it tries to close off a corridor through the strait that hugs the Omani coastline and which had been providing a lifeline for Gulf oil exports.

### [E1873] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-22 18:30 UTC | 盘中
WTI 9月原油期货收涨2.49美元，涨幅超过2.95%，报86.83美元/桶，亚太盘初以来持续上扬，北京时间17:52涨至88.61美元，逼近6月3日顶部89.90美元、5月18日顶部95.30美元。 布伦特9月原油期货收涨3.06美元，...
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3138364
WTI 9月原油期货收涨2.49美元，涨幅超过2.95%，报86.83美元/桶，亚太盘初以来持续上扬，北京时间17:52涨至88.61美元，逼近6月3日顶部89.90美元、5月18日顶部95.30美元。 布伦特9月原油期货收涨3.06美元，涨幅超过3.36%，报94.07美元/桶，逼近6月3日顶部96.22美元、5月18日顶部103.26美元。 中东Abu Dhabi Murban原油期货涨4.31%，报89.47美元/桶，16:29曾涨至91.30美元。 NYMEX 8月天然气期货收报2.9250美元/百万英热单位。 NYMEX 8月汽油期货收报3.4147美元/加仑，NYMEX 8月取暖油期货收报4.1488美元/加仑。

### [E2284] MarketWatch Top Stories | 2026-07-22 20:10 UTC | 收盘后
Global oil prices settle at 6-week high after topping $95 a barrel, as hopes dim for de-escalation of Iran war
URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-climb-to-six-week-high-as-hopes-of-de-escalation-in-iran-diminish-b5fb0942?mod=mw_rss_topstories
Oil prices settled at six-week highs on Wednesday after the U.S. struck Iran for the 11th night in a row and President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will bomb Iranian bridges and power plants if Tehran fires on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

### [E2719] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-22 20:56 UTC | 收盘后
Southwest Airlines' third-quarter forecast falls short as fuel bill climbs
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/southwest-airlines-luv-2q-2026-earnings.html
Southwest Airlines reported a more than 9% increase in second-quarter profit from last year as higher fares are increasingly helping the airline cover its fuel tab, but its outlook for the summer fell below Wall Street forecasts.
The airline forecast third-quarter adjusted earnings of between 50 cents and 75 cents, below the 82 cents analysts expected, even though it projected an increase in sales between 17.5% to 19.5% from a year earlier. The Dallas airline said it plans to contract capacity 1% at most or keep it flat compared with the third quarter of 2025.
In the second quarter, Southwest's revenue increased 16.4% to $8.4 billion. Average passenger fares were up almost 21% to $225.61 from $186.65 a year earlier. But Southwest's costs spiked, with a 67% increase in its fuel bill to $2.22 billion in the second quarter from a year before.
Net income rose 9.4% to $233 million, or 47 cents a share, compared with $213 million or 39 cents a share a year earlier.
Here's what Southwest reported for second quarter compared with Wall Street expectations, according to consensus estimates from LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 94 cents adjusted. It was not immediately clear if that was comparable to expectations for 51 cents
- Revenue: $8.43 billion vs. $8.58 billion expected
Excluding one-time items, Southwest reported an adjusted 94 cents per share, including an adjustment for customers that redeemed flight credits in higher numbers than projected. Southwest changed its old policy and put expiration dates on flight credits, starting with many ticket classes sold starting in mid-2025.

### [E2833] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-22 21:12 UTC | 收盘后
Southwest Cuts Full-Year Outlook as Fuel Expenses Weigh on Second-Quarter Profit
URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/southwest-cuts-full-year-outlook-as-fuel-expenses-weigh-on-second-quarter-profit-4b25d6e4
Southwest Airlines lowered its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to between $3.25 and $4.25 a share due to higher fuel costs.

Southwest Airlines’ fuel expense increased by $889 million in the latest quarter as conflict in the Middle East tightened crude oil supplies.

Southwest Airlines’ second-quarter profit rose to $233 million, while revenue climbed 16% to $8.43 billion.

This summary was generated with AI and reviewed by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.

Southwest Airlines lowered its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to between $3.25 and $4.25 a share due to higher fuel costs.View more

Southwest Airlines LUV lowered its full-year guidance after higher fuel costs weighed on its bottom line in the latest quarter.

The carrier said Wednesday it now expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25, compared with its forecast from January for at least $4. Analysts polled by FactSet expect adjusted earnings of $3.09 a share for the year.

In April, the company had warned that its initial projection was at risk due to rising jet-fuel costs. The company said at the time that fuel prices would need to come down, or its revenue performance would need to be stronger to offset the increased fuel costs, in order to hit its target.

Southwest said its new profit guidance is based on the forward fuel curve as of July 17, and assumes the current fare environment and demand trends remain intact.

The updated guidance came as Southwest’s fuel expense increased by $889 million in the latest quarter, hurting profit as the conflict in the Middle East tightened supplies of crude oil. However, fuel costs in the quarter were lower than the company had previously anticipated, coming in at $3.92 a gallon, compared with its prior assumptions of $4.10 to $4.15 a gallon.

Second-quarter profit was $233 million, or 47 cents a share, compared with $213 million, or 39 cents a share, a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings per share were 94 cents, compared with estimates of 51 cents a share according to analysts polled by FactSet. Increased fuel expense posed a $1.17 drag on adjusted earnings per share.

Revenue climbed 16%, to $8.43 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $8.58 billion.

Chief Executive Bob Jordan said the company is benefiting from a broader and more diversified set of revenue and commercial drivers, pointing to momentum in areas like its rewards program and Chase co-branded credit card.

For the current quarter, Southwest expects adjusted earnings per share of 50 cents to 75 cents, compared with analyst estimates of 79 cents. The company projects capacity will be down 1% to flat, and revenue per available seat mile to rise 17.5% to 19.5%.

### [E2938] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-22 21:29 UTC | 收盘后
U.S. Surges Forces and Medics to Middle East as Trump Weighs Iran Options
URL: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/u-s-surges-forces-and-medics-to-middle-east-as-trump-weighs-iran-options-950b3db6
This is an edition of the What’s News newsletter, which helps you catch up on the headlines and understand the news, free in your inbox daily. If you’re not subscribed, sign up here.

1. The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more options as he considers expanding the Iran war, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Pentagon referred questions about the troop movements to U.S. Central Command, which declined to discuss details, citing operational security. The preparations come despite concerns in Washington about America’s endgame and the mounting cost of the war. Three U.S. soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack over the weekend.

2. Google parent Alphabet’s red-hot cloud growth drove second-quarter gains.

The company posted 24% revenue growth, but its free cash flow turned negative as it continued to spend heavily on data centers for AI computing. Revenue also surged at Tesla amid a $5.8 billion spend in AI and robotics. The electric automaker reported negative free cash flow for the first time in two years. Now to the O.G.: IBM lowered its growth outlook after sales of data center mainframes sank 42%.

3. A group of landlords filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn the new rent freeze on New York City apartments.

It’s the real-estate industry’s first legal challenge to Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s pledge to make housing more affordable. The lawsuit accused the city’s Rent Guidelines Board of using a “sham process” before voting in June and Mamdani of influencing the outcome. A mayoral spokesperson said the board is independent and expressed confidence that it had evaluated all relevant data. The Rent Guidelines Board declined to comment. Also today: Mamdani appointed former FTC head Lina Khan to chair the city’s Economic Development Corporation.

4. Two AI systems that OpenAI was testing broke out of their test environment, hacked their way onto the internet and broke into another company, according to the ChatGPT maker.

The victim was Hugging Face, a provider of open-source AI tools; it discovered the break-in early last week. “We consider this incident to be an unprecedented cyber incident, involving state-of-the-art cyber capabilities,” OpenAI said yesterday.

5. Lawyers investigating the Gates Foundation’s connection to Jeffrey Epstein didn’t have access to Bill Gates’s personal communications.

They also didn’t review interactions with the billionaire’s private office, where two longtime employees had deep ties to the sex offender. The review found no evidence of wrongdoing. The Microsoft co-founder has apologized over his links to Epstein. Separately, French prosecutors are investigating the death of a man who scouted models for Epstein after he was found dead at his home outside Paris this week.

The Number

$14.85 billion

The amount that medical billing arbitration awarded to healthcare providers last year, according to WSJ’s analysis of new federal data. That is more than triple 2024’s total. Anesthesiologists and ER doctors are among the winners under the setup created by a 2020 law to protect patients from surprise medical bills. Insurers must make the arbitrated payouts.

Spotlight

The global economy is suddenly fighting an energy stranglehold on three fronts.

The closing of the chokepoints at the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Black Sea collectively imperils roughly a quarter of the world’s oil supply. Disrupting Gulf states’ and Russia’s energy exports has empowered Iran and Ukraine, respectively. Crude-oil prices jumped above $95 a barrel.

Catch Up

- Paramount Wins EU Approval for $81 Billion Warner Bros. Deal (Read)

- Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s Trial Set for June 2027 (Read)

- Social-Media Harm Trial Halted After Teen Drops Meta Lawsuit (Read)

- It’s the Deadliest Room in the House—Especially for Seniors (Read)

What Do You Think?

Have you ever received a surprise medical bill? Let us know at whatsnewsletter@wsj.com or reply to this newsletter. Include your full name and location, and we may publish your response in an upcoming issue.

Take a Break

Padel, a cousin of squash and tennis, has shown signs of becoming the next American sporting sensation. Entrepreneurs—from fashion executives to coffee-chain founders—are looking to cash in on what they hope is the next pickleball.

Beyond the Newsroom

WSJ | Buy Side: Whether you prefer a one-piece or a classic string bikini, these stylist-approved women’s swimsuits are flattering and functional.

Tell us about the small businesses you remember fondly and what you miss most about them. Email reports@wsj.com and we might feature you in an upcoming story.

Today’s newsletter was curated by Zlati Meyer in collaboration with Liz Webber in New York. Follow Zlati on X at @Zlatimeyer.

Sign up for WSJ newsletters on markets, tech, careers and more.

### [E2952] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-22 21:31 UTC | 收盘后
也门胡塞武装称袭击两艘沙特油轮
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3138426
也门胡塞武装当地时间23日凌晨表示已在红海袭击两艘沙特油轮，并称这两艘油轮违反该组织近期宣布的海上禁运令。（新华社）

也门胡塞武装称袭击两艘沙特油轮

### [E0651] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-22 14:30 UTC | 盘中
美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加201万桶，彭博用户预计下降50万桶、分析师预期下降87.967万桶，之前一周减少169.2万桶。 商业原油库存意外累库：上周商业原油库存增加逾200万桶，主要受出口下滑拖累。该增幅比周二...
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3138274
美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加201万桶，彭博用户预计下降50万桶、分析师预期下降87.967万桶，之前一周减少169.2万桶。

商业原油库存意外累库：上周商业原油库存增加逾200万桶，主要受出口下滑拖累。该增幅比周二API公布的库存增量少约60万桶。这是过去三周内美国原油库存第二次录得增长。 库欣库存触及低位：俄克拉荷马州库欣（Cushing）枢纽的库存已回落至交易员认为的运营低位。中西部整体原油库存仍处于2014年末以来的最低水平。 馏分油产量创纪录：受炼厂利润率接近历史最高水平的提振，馏分油产量激增至530万桶/日的季节性历史新高。 出口维持高位：产量的提升支撑了高达160万桶/日的出口量，创2022年以来同期最高出口纪录。 委内瑞拉原油进口激增：来自委内瑞拉的原油进口量升至5月以来最高，接近69万桶/日。由于委内瑞拉原油价格相对低廉，解释了为何上周来自同等油质（重质原油）的加拿大原油进口量有所回落。

### [E1061] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-22 15:22 UTC | 盘中
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stockpiles Post Weekly Build
URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/u-s-commercial-crude-oil-stockpiles-post-weekly-build-563607e9
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly by two million barrels last week as imports increased and exports fell.

U.S. crude oil production fell by 63,000 barrels a day to an estimated 13.8 million barrels a day.

Gasoline inventories rose by 765,000 barrels to 211.3 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 1.1 million barrel decline.

This summary was generated with AI and reviewed by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly by two million barrels last week as imports increased and exports fell.View more

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports increased and exports fell, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 2 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels in the week ended July 17 and were about 6% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a 1 million barrel crude stock draw.

The Department of Energy released 5.1 million barrels of oil from the SPR, leaving the reserve holding 311.4 million barrels. Oil stocks at Cushing, Okla., the Nymex delivery hub, were down by 674,000 barrels at 19.4 million barrels.

The EIA estimated U.S. crude oil production at 13.8 million barrels a day, down by 63,000 barrels a day from the previous week. Crude oil imports increased by 117,000 barrels a day to 5.8 million barrels a day, and exports fell by 368,000 barrels a day to 3.4 million barrels a day.

Refinery capacity use slipped to 96.1% from 96.2% the week before, with crude input to refineries down by 58,000 barrels a day at 17.1 million barrels a day. Refineries were seen running at 96% of capacity in the Journal survey.

Gasoline inventories rose by 765,000 barrels to 211.3 million barrels and were 7% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Gasoline demand was up by 103,000 barrels a day at 8.9 million barrels a day. Gasoline stocks were expected to have fallen by 1.1 million barrels.

Distillate fuel stocks grew by 1.4 million barrels to 109.6 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 100,000 barrel build, and were 10% below the five-year average for the time of year.

### [E2103] First Squawk | 2026-07-22 19:44 UTC | 盘中
TRUMP: U.S. DOES NOT NEED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ; VENEZUELA WORKING WITH U.S. TO PRODUCE OIL
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2080016177959682275
TRUMP: U.S. DOES NOT NEED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ; VENEZUELA WORKING WITH U.S. TO PRODUCE OIL

### [E2122] 财联社电报 | 2026-07-22 19:58 UTC | 盘中
财联社7月23日电，特朗普称，油价将会暴跌。
URL: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2434450
财联社7月23日电，特朗普称，油价将会暴跌。

### [E2134] First Squawk | 2026-07-22 20:00 UTC | 收盘后
TRUMP: OIL WILL COME TUMBLING DOWN; NOTES PRICES ARE ALREADY COMING DOWN DESPITE SOME REMAINING ELEVATED
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2080020090456830337
TRUMP: OIL WILL COME TUMBLING DOWN; NOTES PRICES ARE ALREADY COMING DOWN DESPITE SOME REMAINING ELEVATED

### [E2922] Reuters | 2026-07-22 21:25 UTC | 收盘后
Iran cuts price of August light crude to Asia http://reut.rs/4wXLj3w http://reut.rs/4wXLj3w
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2080041473152516248
Iran cuts price of August light crude to Asia http://reut.rs/4wXLj3w http://reut.rs/4wXLj3w

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。