布伦特重回100美元且红海/霍尔木兹风险升温，亚洲能源、航空与航运读出分化但缺少干净可执行单名

# 美股盘后催化 6/12: Brent重回100美元、红海和霍尔木兹风险升级，油价冲击重新定价航空、能源与利率敏感资产

- 美股会话: 2026-07-23
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 供需/价格；规划重大性: 8/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：胡塞袭击沙特油轮、伊朗/红海/霍尔木兹风险升温，Brent结算100.69美元、WTI大涨逾6%，美债收益率和加息预期上行；American Airlines等燃油敏感公司承压。推断：上游油气、油服、部分油运和防务受益，航空、运输、化工下游、消费和高估值科技承压；这是市场regime因素，但能映射到亚洲能源、航空和航运单名。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- XOM.US (XOM.US): 156.89 +1.58%
- CVX.US (CVX.US): 194.42 +0.75%
- AAL.US (AAL.US): 13.555 -8.35%
- LUV.US (LUV.US): 44.71 -6.19%
- VLO.US (VLO.US): 305.26 -1.82%
- MPC.US (MPC.US): 312.27 -1.12%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 中国石油股份 (0857.HK) [H/同源本地股/positive]: 高油价通常提升上游油气盈利和现金流，但下游炼化及价格调控需分拆。；核验问题: 中石油油价敏感度、产量、成品油调价机制和炼化利润抵消程度。
- 大韩航空 (003490.KS) [KR/同源本地股/negative]: 航油价格上行和中东航线风险可能压缩航空利润率。；核验问题: 燃油套保比例、燃油附加费传导、中东/欧美航线敞口。
- 日本邮船 (9101.JP) [JP/同源本地股/mixed]: 红海绕航和战争险可能推升运价，但燃油、保险和航线中断也提高成本。；核验问题: 船队油运/LNG/集装箱结构、红海/中东航线占比和附加费转嫁能力。

## 必答问题

- 油价上涨是风险溢价还是实际供应/航运中断？
- OPEC+增产和SPR能否缓冲冲击？
- 亚洲航司、炼厂和航运企业的套保及价格传导能力如何？

## 原始证据全文（17 条）

### [E0103] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 13:36 UTC | 盘中
Brent crude tops $100 a barrel. How the next stop could be $120
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/brent-crude-tops-100-a-barrel-how-the-next-stop-could-be-120.html
POWER POINT
What I'm hearing from energy insiders
U.S. oil just topped $90 a barrel and Brent crude is passed $100 a barrel.
A number of new factors could mean this crude comeback has legs.
For example, what happens if all Iranian oil suddenly went offline?
It's an outlier thought. Maybe it's crazy. While we can't all agree on much, can we at least agree that maybe now is the exact right time for crazy, outlier thoughts?
Before I get to that, here's a quick synopsis of where we stand right now with the nearly hour-by-hour headlines around Hormuz and energy.
Angry militants in Iran continue to risk a wider war with the U.S., killing American servicemen in an attack on our ally Jordan. Trump again has warned the country, saying those responsible will "pay" for the attacks.
At the same time, one of Iran's proxy terror groups, called the Houthis, is trying to ratchet things up by imposing a Red Sea blockade.
As I've written often lately, it's an incredibly fluid, scary time where the news can change by the time you read this.
As I've been thinking about what's going on, the one thought that hasn't really played out is: what happens if all Iranian oil went offline? Right now Iran is still selling some oil on the global markets, either by avoiding the Strait blockade or by using the time under the peace MOU to increase sales and raise money. So what would happen if something were to happen to Iran's oil hub, Kharg Island? Or the employees of the National Iran Oil Co (NIOC) just walked off the job and crushed Iranian production?
Oil expert Eric Nuttall of Canada's Ninepoint Partners, a Toronto-based alternative asset management firm, said the risk to prices is higher, and he lays out the Iran scenario like this:
"With Middle Eastern production still down 7-8MM Bbl/d, global onshore inventories at near record low seasonal levels, an increasingly depleted US SPR, and significant tightness in refined product stocks, the world simply cannot afford to lose a further 2.6MM Bbl/d of Iranian production. The market up until now has been looking through or flat out ignoring the inevitable supply shock if the status quo persists, our base case expectation. Perhaps Iranian oil production going offline would be enough to finally act as a reality check. We think record high crack spreads are a leading indicator for what price action will look like for oil in the near future."
Kevin Book of Clearview Energy Partners, an independent energy policy research firm that produces must-read research and is interviewed in our Inside Line below, says the key is how long Iranian oil were to be offline, but the market would be looking at a $5 per barrel increase at the minimum.
And Rapidan Energy Group's Bob McNally is direct in his message, telling me that "all [Iran's] exports are offline pretty much," but if all their actual oil production closed, then "their refineries would shut down, and they'd have no more refined products after they drained storage. Transportation would grind to a halt. It would crush their economy."
So while it's a potentially crazy question about Iran and Hormuz, don't write off the "no Iran oil" as pure fantasy.
Speaking of Hormuz, these days you need to keep your Straits straight. The next geographic area to study up on is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BAM). The BAM is the narrow strait that runs between Yemen and Africa and is about as wide as Hormuz. The Strait is the only southern entry to the Red Sea, another waterway critical for oil and product flows.
RBI →"'Bab el-Mandeb" roughly translates to "gate of grief"
RBI #2→ Some believe that thousands of years ago the BAM was shallow enough that humans could walk across it, leading to increased migration.
The risk to BAM is real. And it may be a reason why brent crude is nearing $100 a barrel.
Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research writes that the market continues to believe things will get better from here and both the U.S. and Iran will be forced to de-escalate. But Marcus also thinks we shouldn't automatically underestimate the risk of some kind of supply disruption around the Red Sea. With Saudi Arabia pumping more oil through its East-West pipeline into the port of Yanbu, any Houthi attacks risk about 4½ million barrels of oil per day.
Iranian strongmen may believe they have the upper hand right now, as the new attacks have led to a new drop in crude oil tanker traffic out of the SOH. An insurance industry source tells me that while a shipowner "can get cover" - the industry term for insurance - there isn't much demand because ship traffic has again slowed considerably.
Bottom line, here's my Power Point takeaway on oil, energy and the macro markets. This spring, we learned that stocks can keep going higher even if oil and gasoline go up. That's certainly surprised many, myself included. It's likely for a cornucopia of reasons, and the energy-specific would be that gasoline was more expensive in the summer of 2022 than it is now (we got used to it), cars get better fuel mileage than they used to, and many of you now have the ability to work from home. The bigger reason, however, is that the trillions in A.I.-related spending is helping power incomes and the economy more than gasoline can cut it down.
I'm actually writing some of these words from the Milwaukee, Wisconsin airport where I was stranded by a canceled flight. A flight, I might add, that was oversold both ways, despite air fares that few would call cheap. I fly more than most, and I can tell you that across America, people are spending money on travel this summer. Gasoline prices be darned ... at least for now.
Safe travels,
WALL STREET'S TAKE
The team at Goldman Sachs is back on the tape with a new oil note. Daan Struyven writes that Brent crude oil might rise back above $120 per barrel in the 4th quarter if Hormuz remains disrupted.
Struyven also warns that "recent inventory draws have left the market more vulnerable than in February" but that his "simulated price upside is less high than comparable estimates from that period, partly because we now assume greater demand elasticity - -especially in China -- where crude imports remain weak." In other words, China's falling oil demand may keep a lid on prices, at least relative to a few months ago.
Speaking of inventories, the U.S. continues to sell oil from our strategic reserve, and there are growing concerns that we're getting closer to what some call "tank bottoms," or the levels at which it's difficult to retrieve as much oil as wanted.
A story that really didn't get the attention it deserved was that American companies are going to invest $60 billion or more in Iraq. The list of companies investing not only comes from the energy world — Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, BP, Halliburton and more — but also from finance (JPMorgan Chase), consumer products (PepsiCo), health care (Abbott and Thermo Fisher Scientific) and more. President Donald Trump and Iraq's Prime Minister spoke about the deal from the White House.
Chevron is involved in talks to rebuild a massive pipeline from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Syrian coast. The pipeline isn't new, but has been damaged since 2003. The company is also reportedly talking about investments in two big Iraqi oil fields. UBS is bullish on Chevron (CVX), with a $220 12-month price target. That's another 15% gain on a stock already up 25% this year. That UBS target is actually just about middle of the pack on Chevron, sandwiched between Melius Research's high of $243 per Chevron share, and TD Cowen's $197.
Another part of the Iraq news is that ConocoPhillips (COP) will invest alongside BP, buying a 42% stake in an oilfield. Evercore ISI likes the stock - it has a $145 price target - but says this Iraq move is "likely to raise some questions about how coherent the move is within a well-defined resource & [free cash flow] trajectory." Part of Evercore's bullish thesis is that COP's free cash flow is "de-risked" and "uniquely attractive" right now, and they are concerned some investors may want more clarity on the Iraq story before "crediting the addition."
It's not all about oil. Natural gas-focused Excelerate Energy (EE) is also involved in the Iraq investments. While that's not a key focus for Goldman Sachs, the firm still loves the stock. It just started coverage of EE with a buy rating and $49 target, a meaty 25% upside.
Excelerate's main business is regasification and storage. Simply put, the company has 12 giant ships that hold natural gas. Goldman notes that Excelerate Energy has about a 25% market share in global floating 're-gas' services and should benefit from lower LNG prices later this decade. Goldman also likes what it calls EE's "underappreciated vertical integration opportunities."
On a macro level, higher oil prices have meant higher oil and gas stock prices too. This month, seven large-cap names are up double digits, led by Marathon Petroleum (MPC). Marathon — helmed by New Jersey native CEO Maryann Mannen — is quietly hitting record highs and has popped 25% in July. Investors have realized energy investing isn't a sprint; it's a … well, you know.
TAKE A LOOK
Kpler's Matt Smith says there are still many risks with shipping and oil.
INSIDE LINE
This weeks Inside Line is with Kevin Book, Co-Founder and Head of Research at ClearView Energy Partners. Kevin is one of just a handful of go-to energy experts who is also a D.C. insider.
RANDOM, BUT INTERESTING
Don't lose sight of the Russia story. Ukraine continues to pound Putin's energy assets, taking some Russian oil refining offline. API and the Energy Institute highlight how about 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian refining aren't running, which means the country has to sell some of that oil on the open market as it can't process it. That excess oil hitting the export market may be keeping crude prices from rising even more than they already have.
THE GRID
Kpler's regular Market Insights are always a must-read for me.
The national average for gasoline is back above $4, according to AAA.
But that's unlikely to drive buyers to EVs: Why Isn't $4-Plus Gasoline Enough To Make Americans Switch To EVs?
Except in Germany, where nearly $9 per gallon gas has buyers going full electric: EVs Just Beat Gas And Diesel In Europe's Biggest Car Market For The First Time
Meantime in Russia, Ukraine keeps pounding Putin: Overnight Ukrainian Attacks Across Russia Kill At Least 4
I know we keep talking about the group... but they just keep signing multibillion dollar deals. Hut 8 is the latest.
And my song of the week … The Red Clay Strays' Demons In Your Choir
LOOKING FOR MORE?
Catch up with more on energy including interviews and video content from CNBC and Power Insider.
Read the last issue of Power Insider here: The best energy stocks right now as two major conflicts keep oil prices elevated

### [E0104] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 13:36 UTC | 盘中
Brent crude tops $100 a barrel. How the next stop could be $120
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/brent-crude-tops-100-a-barrel-how-the-next-stop-could-be-120.html
POWER POINT
What I'm hearing from energy insiders
U.S. oil just topped $90 a barrel and Brent crude is passed $100 a barrel.
A number of new factors could mean this crude comeback has legs.
For example, what happens if all Iranian oil suddenly went offline?
It's an outlier thought. Maybe it's crazy. While we can't all agree on much, can we at least agree that maybe now is the exact right time for crazy, outlier thoughts?
Before I get to that, here's a quick synopsis of where we stand right now with the nearly hour-by-hour headlines around Hormuz and energy.
Angry militants in Iran continue to risk a wider war with the U.S., killing American servicemen in an attack on our ally Jordan. Trump again has warned the country, saying those responsible will "pay" for the attacks.
At the same time, one of Iran's proxy terror groups, called the Houthis, is trying to ratchet things up by imposing a Red Sea blockade.
As I've written often lately, it's an incredibly fluid, scary time where the news can change by the time you read this.
As I've been thinking about what's going on, the one thought that hasn't really played out is: what happens if all Iranian oil went offline? Right now Iran is still selling some oil on the global markets, either by avoiding the Strait blockade or by using the time under the peace MOU to increase sales and raise money. So what would happen if something were to happen to Iran's oil hub, Kharg Island? Or the employees of the National Iran Oil Co (NIOC) just walked off the job and crushed Iranian production?
Oil expert Eric Nuttall of Canada's Ninepoint Partners, a Toronto-based alternative asset management firm, said the risk to prices is higher, and he lays out the Iran scenario like this:
"With Middle Eastern production still down 7-8MM Bbl/d, global onshore inventories at near record low seasonal levels, an increasingly depleted US SPR, and significant tightness in refined product stocks, the world simply cannot afford to lose a further 2.6MM Bbl/d of Iranian production. The market up until now has been looking through or flat out ignoring the inevitable supply shock if the status quo persists, our base case expectation. Perhaps Iranian oil production going offline would be enough to finally act as a reality check. We think record high crack spreads are a leading indicator for what price action will look like for oil in the near future."
Kevin Book of Clearview Energy Partners, an independent energy policy research firm that produces must-read research and is interviewed in our Inside Line below, says the key is how long Iranian oil were to be offline, but the market would be looking at a $5 per barrel increase at the minimum.
And Rapidan Energy Group's Bob McNally is direct in his message, telling me that "all [Iran's] exports are offline pretty much," but if all their actual oil production closed, then "their refineries would shut down, and they'd have no more refined products after they drained storage. Transportation would grind to a halt. It would crush their economy."
So while it's a potentially crazy question about Iran and Hormuz, don't write off the "no Iran oil" as pure fantasy.
Speaking of Hormuz, these days you need to keep your Straits straight. The next geographic area to study up on is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BAM). The BAM is the narrow strait that runs between Yemen and Africa and is about as wide as Hormuz. The Strait is the only southern entry to the Red Sea, another waterway critical for oil and product flows.
RBI →"'Bab el-Mandeb" roughly translates to "gate of grief"
RBI #2→ Some believe that thousands of years ago the BAM was shallow enough that humans could walk across it, leading to increased migration.
The risk to BAM is real. And it may be a reason why brent crude is nearing $100 a barrel.
Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research writes that the market continues to believe things will get better from here and both the U.S. and Iran will be forced to de-escalate. But Marcus also thinks we shouldn't automatically underestimate the risk of some kind of supply disruption around the Red Sea. With Saudi Arabia pumping more oil through its East-West pipeline into the port of Yanbu, any Houthi attacks risk about 4½ million barrels of oil per day.
Iranian strongmen may believe they have the upper hand right now, as the new attacks have led to a new drop in crude oil tanker traffic out of the SOH. An insurance industry source tells me that while a shipowner "can get cover" - the industry term for insurance - there isn't much demand because ship traffic has again slowed considerably.
Bottom line, here's my Power Point takeaway on oil, energy and the macro markets. This spring, we learned that stocks can keep going higher even if oil and gasoline go up. That's certainly surprised many, myself included. It's likely for a cornucopia of reasons, and the energy-specific would be that gasoline was more expensive in the summer of 2022 than it is now (we got used to it), cars get better fuel mileage than they used to, and many of you now have the ability to work from home. The bigger reason, however, is that the trillions in A.I.-related spending is helping power incomes and the economy more than gasoline can cut it down.
I'm actually writing some of these words from the Milwaukee, Wisconsin airport where I was stranded by a canceled flight. A flight, I might add, that was oversold both ways, despite air fares that few would call cheap. I fly more than most, and I can tell you that across America, people are spending money on travel this summer. Gasoline prices be darned ... at least for now.
Safe travels,
WALL STREET'S TAKE
The team at Goldman Sachs is back on the tape with a new oil note. Daan Struyven writes that Brent crude oil might rise back above $120 per barrel in the 4th quarter if Hormuz remains disrupted.
Struyven also warns that "recent inventory draws have left the market more vulnerable than in February" but that his "simulated price upside is less high than comparable estimates from that period, partly because we now assume greater demand elasticity - -especially in China -- where crude imports remain weak." In other words, China's falling oil demand may keep a lid on prices, at least relative to a few months ago.
Speaking of inventories, the U.S. continues to sell oil from our strategic reserve, and there are growing concerns that we're getting closer to what some call "tank bottoms," or the levels at which it's difficult to retrieve as much oil as wanted.
A story that really didn't get the attention it deserved was that American companies are going to invest $60 billion or more in Iraq. The list of companies investing not only comes from the energy world — Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, BP, Halliburton and more — but also from finance (JPMorgan Chase), consumer products (PepsiCo), health care (Abbott and Thermo Fisher Scientific) and more. President Donald Trump and Iraq's Prime Minister spoke about the deal from the White House.
Chevron is involved in talks to rebuild a massive pipeline from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the Syrian coast. The pipeline isn't new, but has been damaged since 2003. The company is also reportedly talking about investments in two big Iraqi oil fields. UBS is bullish on Chevron (CVX), with a $220 12-month price target. That's another 15% gain on a stock already up 25% this year. That UBS target is actually just about middle of the pack on Chevron, sandwiched between Melius Research's high of $243 per Chevron share, and TD Cowen's $197.
Another part of the Iraq news is that ConocoPhillips (COP) will invest alongside BP, buying a 42% stake in an oilfield. Evercore ISI likes the stock - it has a $145 price target - but says this Iraq move is "likely to raise some questions about how coherent the move is within a well-defined resource & [free cash flow] trajectory." Part of Evercore's bullish thesis is that COP's free cash flow is "de-risked" and "uniquely attractive" right now, and they are concerned some investors may want more clarity on the Iraq story before "crediting the addition."
It's not all about oil. Natural gas-focused Excelerate Energy (EE) is also involved in the Iraq investments. While that's not a key focus for Goldman Sachs, the firm still loves the stock. It just started coverage of EE with a buy rating and $49 target, a meaty 25% upside.
Excelerate's main business is regasification and storage. Simply put, the company has 12 giant ships that hold natural gas. Goldman notes that Excelerate Energy has about a 25% market share in global floating 're-gas' services and should benefit from lower LNG prices later this decade. Goldman also likes what it calls EE's "underappreciated vertical integration opportunities."
On a macro level, higher oil prices have meant higher oil and gas stock prices too. This month, seven large-cap names are up double digits, led by Marathon Petroleum (MPC). Marathon — helmed by New Jersey native CEO Maryann Mannen — is quietly hitting record highs and has popped 25% in July. Investors have realized energy investing isn't a sprint; it's a … well, you know.
TAKE A LOOK
Kpler's Matt Smith says there are still many risks with shipping and oil.
INSIDE LINE
This weeks Inside Line is with Kevin Book, Co-Founder and Head of Research at ClearView Energy Partners. Kevin is one of just a handful of go-to energy experts who is also a D.C. insider.
RANDOM, BUT INTERESTING
Don't lose sight of the Russia story. Ukraine continues to pound Putin's energy assets, taking some Russian oil refining offline. API and the Energy Institute highlight how about 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian refining aren't running, which means the country has to sell some of that oil on the open market as it can't process it. That excess oil hitting the export market may be keeping crude prices from rising even more than they already have.
THE GRID
Kpler's regular Market Insights are always a must-read for me.
The national average for gasoline is back above $4, according to AAA.
But that's unlikely to drive buyers to EVs: Why Isn't $4-Plus Gasoline Enough To Make Americans Switch To EVs?
Except in Germany, where nearly $9 per gallon gas has buyers going full electric: EVs Just Beat Gas And Diesel In Europe's Biggest Car Market For The First Time
Meantime in Russia, Ukraine keeps pounding Putin: Overnight Ukrainian Attacks Across Russia Kill At Least 4
I know we keep talking about the group... but they just keep signing multibillion dollar deals. Hut 8 is the latest.
And my song of the week … The Red Clay Strays' Demons In Your Choir
LOOKING FOR MORE?
Catch up with more on energy including interviews and video content from CNBC and Power Insider.
Read the last issue of Power Insider here: The best energy stocks right now as two major conflicts keep oil prices elevated

### [E0545] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-23 14:27 UTC | 盘中
Brent Hits $100 Again as Houthi Attacks Threaten Further Supply Squeeze
URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/brent-hits-100-again-as-houthi-attacks-threaten-further-supply-squeeze-b1faa05b
Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers.

U.S. President Trump threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis if the group carries out further attacks on ships.

Some vessels have started rerouting away from the Red Sea after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia.

This summary was generated with AI and reviewed by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.

Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers.View more

Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months as the conflict in the Middle East widened after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers heading toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The global oil benchmark soared 7.2% to $100.82 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since the end of May, while West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 5.8% to $91.83 a barrel. The contracts have gained more than 19% and 16%, respectively, this week.

“With the reality of the Houthis carrying out an attack on two Saudi VLCCs, this crisis just got a lot worse and commodities are doing their best to kill demand by driving up prices,” said Scott Shelton, an energy analyst at U.K.-based interdealer broker TP ICAP Group TCAP .

“Overall, it’s pretty clear that there isn’t enough oil in the world for sale at this point and prices can keep going higher.”

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait has become Saudi Arabia’s main crude export route following the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The choke point used to handle roughly 12% of the world’s seaborne oil flows before the war.

U.S. President Trump said Thursday in a social-media post that the U.S. will inflict “major military punishment” on Iran and the Houthis if the group carries out further attacks on ships.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply from June levels, while Kpler ship-tracking data showed some vessels have started rerouting away from the Red Sea after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. The threats have raised concerns over longer shipping times, higher freight costs and the risk of even tighter global oil supplies.

“The fear of supplies tightening are the price drivers this morning,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait will be harder to block than the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis lack the resources Iran has, but any major disruption would continue to put upward pressure on crude, he added.

The risks extend beyond the Middle East. Ukraine has carried out a series of strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea, disrupting flows through a pipeline that carries Kazakh oil to the port of Novorossiysk, a critical export hub.

The pressure on key shipping routes comes as energy markets face a fragile backdrop, with U.S. crude inventories, including commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, falling to their lowest level since the mid-1980s last week.

### [E0546] 华尔街日报 | 2026-07-23 14:27 UTC | 盘中
Brent Hits $100 Again as Houthi Attacks Threaten Further Supply Squeeze
URL: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/brent-hits-100-again-as-houthi-attacks-threaten-further-supply-squeeze-b1faa05b
Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers.

U.S. President Trump threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis if the group carries out further attacks on ships.

Some vessels have started rerouting away from the Red Sea after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia.

This summary was generated with AI and reviewed by an editor. Read more about how we use artificial intelligence in our journalism.

Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers.View more

Brent crude hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months as the conflict in the Middle East widened after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they attacked two Saudi tankers heading toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The global oil benchmark soared 7.2% to $100.82 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since the end of May, while West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 5.8% to $91.83 a barrel. The contracts have gained more than 19% and 16%, respectively, this week.

“With the reality of the Houthis carrying out an attack on two Saudi VLCCs, this crisis just got a lot worse and commodities are doing their best to kill demand by driving up prices,” said Scott Shelton, an energy analyst at U.K.-based interdealer broker TP ICAP Group TCAP .

“Overall, it’s pretty clear that there isn’t enough oil in the world for sale at this point and prices can keep going higher.”

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait has become Saudi Arabia’s main crude export route following the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The choke point used to handle roughly 12% of the world’s seaborne oil flows before the war.

U.S. President Trump said Thursday in a social-media post that the U.S. will inflict “major military punishment” on Iran and the Houthis if the group carries out further attacks on ships.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply from June levels, while Kpler ship-tracking data showed some vessels have started rerouting away from the Red Sea after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. The threats have raised concerns over longer shipping times, higher freight costs and the risk of even tighter global oil supplies.

“The fear of supplies tightening are the price drivers this morning,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait will be harder to block than the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis lack the resources Iran has, but any major disruption would continue to put upward pressure on crude, he added.

The risks extend beyond the Middle East. Ukraine has carried out a series of strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and ships in the Black Sea, disrupting flows through a pipeline that carries Kazakh oil to the port of Novorossiysk, a critical export hub.

The pressure on key shipping routes comes as energy markets face a fragile backdrop, with U.S. crude inventories, including commercial stocks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, falling to their lowest level since the mid-1980s last week.

### [E1031] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 15:43 UTC | 盘中
Brent crude crosses $100 after tankers reportedly struck off Saudi Arabia
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-trump-iran-hormuz.html
Oil prices surged Thursday following reports of attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and President Donald Trump threatening a "massive attack" against Iran.
Brent crude futures crossed the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May 26. The international benchmark was up about 7% at $100.70 per barrel by 11:41 a.m. ET.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced about 6% to $92.25 per barrel. Oil prices have surged more than 30% this month as fighting in the Middle East sharply escalates.
Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said they targeted two Saudi oil tankers with drones and missiles for violating a maritime blockade that they declared against Riyadh this week.
Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for any future Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, threatening to inflict "major military punishment" on Tehran and the militants in Yemen.
The president subsequently told Axios in an interview that was "considering a massive attack" against Iran. "Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," Trump told Axios.
The tanker attacks came hours after Trump warned the U.S. would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time Tehran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded by warning it would retaliate against U.S.-linked infrastructure and energy assets across the region if Washington carried out those strikes.
"If the Americans target a bridge or a power plant in Iran, Iran will, in turn, strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities where the United States has interests," an unnamed Iranian military source told state-run Tasnim News Agency.
Dangerous escalation
The U.S. war with Iran has entered a more dangerous phase as fighting spreads to the Red Sea and Iran targets critical infrastructure in the Gulf such as water desalination plants, said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Extreme pressure is building in Middle East that could send Brent oil prices above the 2022 high of $128 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine, Croft said. Brent could even surpass the 2008 peak of $146 per barrel in a worst-case scenario of full-scale regional war in the Middle East, the analyst said.
The Ukraine-Russia war is also putting pressure on global oil markets, Croft said. Kyiv has attacked more than 150 tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this month, she said. The tanker attacks have forced the Caspian Pipeline Corporation to stop loading crude at its Black Sea terminal.
About 80% of Kazakhstan's crude is exported through that pipeline, Croft said.
"The duration of closure remains uncertain, but alternate routes for Kazakhstan are limited (and unlikely to fully offset CPC), meaning production (1.7 mb/d in June) could face shut-ins," the analyst said.

### [E1032] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 15:43 UTC | 盘中
Brent crude crosses $100 after tankers reportedly struck off Saudi Arabia
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-trump-iran-hormuz.html
Oil prices surged Thursday following reports of attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and President Donald Trump threatening a "massive attack" against Iran.
Brent crude futures crossed the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May 26. The international benchmark was up about 7% at $100.70 per barrel by 11:41 a.m. ET.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced about 6% to $92.25 per barrel. Oil prices have surged more than 30% this month as fighting in the Middle East sharply escalates.
Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen said they targeted two Saudi oil tankers with drones and missiles for violating a maritime blockade that they declared against Riyadh this week.
Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for any future Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, threatening to inflict "major military punishment" on Tehran and the militants in Yemen.
The president subsequently told Axios in an interview that was "considering a massive attack" against Iran. "Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," Trump told Axios.
The tanker attacks came hours after Trump warned the U.S. would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time Tehran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded by warning it would retaliate against U.S.-linked infrastructure and energy assets across the region if Washington carried out those strikes.
"If the Americans target a bridge or a power plant in Iran, Iran will, in turn, strike infrastructure and bridges in the region, including energy facilities where the United States has interests," an unnamed Iranian military source told state-run Tasnim News Agency.
Dangerous escalation
The U.S. war with Iran has entered a more dangerous phase as fighting spreads to the Red Sea and Iran targets critical infrastructure in the Gulf such as water desalination plants, said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Extreme pressure is building in Middle East that could send Brent oil prices above the 2022 high of $128 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine, Croft said. Brent could even surpass the 2008 peak of $146 per barrel in a worst-case scenario of full-scale regional war in the Middle East, the analyst said.
The Ukraine-Russia war is also putting pressure on global oil markets, Croft said. Kyiv has attacked more than 150 tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this month, she said. The tanker attacks have forced the Caspian Pipeline Corporation to stop loading crude at its Black Sea terminal.
About 80% of Kazakhstan's crude is exported through that pipeline, Croft said.
"The duration of closure remains uncertain, but alternate routes for Kazakhstan are limited (and unlikely to fully offset CPC), meaning production (1.7 mb/d in June) could face shut-ins," the analyst said.

### [E1851] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-23 18:31 UTC | 盘中
WTI 9月原油期货收涨5.36美元，涨幅超过6.17%，报92.19美元/桶，逼近5月18日收盘位94.79美元，全天持续上涨。 布伦特9月原油期货收涨6.62美元，涨幅将近7.04%，报100.69美元/桶，逼近5月18日收盘位102....
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3139035
WTI 9月原油期货收涨5.36美元，涨幅超过6.17%，报92.19美元/桶，逼近5月18日收盘位94.79美元，全天持续上涨。 布伦特9月原油期货收涨6.62美元，涨幅将近7.04%，报100.69美元/桶，逼近5月18日收盘位102.77美元。 中东Abu Dhabi Murban原油期货涨20.71%，报108.00美元/桶，北京时间18:39曾达到114.92美元。NYMEX 8月天然气期货收报2.9160美元/百万英热单位。 NYMEX 8月汽油期货收报3.4964美元/加仑，NYMEX 8月取暖油期货收报4.3416美元/加仑。

### [E1933] First Squawk | 2026-07-23 18:56 UTC | 盘中
BRENT CRUDE FUTURES SETTLE AT $100.69/BBL, SOARING $6.62 OR 7.04%
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2080366566655541414
BRENT CRUDE FUTURES SETTLE AT $100.69/BBL, SOARING $6.62 OR 7.04%

### [E1935] Bloomberg | 2026-07-23 18:58 UTC | 盘中
How Houthis’ Red Sea Attacks Worsen Oil Shock
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-23/how-houthis-red-sea-attacks-worsen-oil-shock
One thing that’s helped limit the Iran war’s disruption to global oil supply is Saudi Arabia’s ability to use an alternative export route to the Strait of Hormuz: the Red Sea.

The fragility of this workaround has been laid bare by new attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthis, Iran-backed militants who control part of Yemen. After launching a series of attacks from 2023 to 2025 on vessels near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the southern Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the Houthis have resumed such strikes, helping push oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months.

How important is the Red Sea trade route?

The combination of the Suez Canal, Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a shortcut for ships to travel between Europe and Asia.

Close to 10% of global seaborne trade passed through the Bab el-Mandeb annually before the Houthi strikes began in 2023. That share had fallen to around 3% last year, based on data from Clarksons Research and the PortWatch platform from the International Monetary Fund and Oxford University. Several waves of Houthi attacks in recent years have prompted ship operators to avoid the Red Sea. Many send their vessels around the southern tip of Africa instead — an expensive diversion that’s thousands of miles longer and can add two weeks to journeys.

Still, the Bab el-Mandeb has been a significant conduit for oil, gas and other commodity exports from the Middle East, Asia and Russia. Traffic ticked up during the Iran war as Saudi Arabia, the biggest crude exporter in the Persian Gulf, used the waterway to keep its oil exports flowing despite the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Diverting more oil along a pipeline to its western coast, Saudi Arabia shipped 3.65 million barrels a day of crude via its Red Sea port of Yanbu in May, equivalent to just over half the country’s total pre-war exports. But in order to pick up these oil cargoes and ferry them to customers in Asia, ships need to sail through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb waterway and past Yemen’s rugged coastline, which provides cover for Houthi attacks.

Why do the Houthis attack ships?

When the Houthis began their Red Sea campaign in 2023, they said it was in retaliation for Israel’s Gaza military campaign in response to the Hamas attacks of October 2023. The group originally said it was only focused on vessels with links to Israel. But ships without a direct connection were also hit. After the US and UK began to strike Houthi assets in early 2024, the militants said all ships from these two countries were legitimate targets.

After the US and Israel launched war on Iran in February, the Houthis repeatedly warned that they could close the Bab el-Mandeb. They largely held their fire in the maritime theater until July when they sank two bulk carriers in rapid succession, killing crew members and taking others hostage. The Houthis also struck a ship close to Yanbu.

Then, on July 20, the group declared that they’d imposed a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. Two days later they said they’d fired missiles and drones at two Saudi vessels in the Red Sea to enforce the blockade.

What prompted the Houthi threat against Saudi Arabia?

The Houthis have largely maintained a fragile truce with Saudi Arabia since 2022, ending years of cross-border attacks and halting a Saudi military campaign to oust the group from Sanaa and restore to the capital Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

But in the days before the Houthi announcement threatening Saudi ships, Saudi jets targeted Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing. The delegation was returning from Tehran after attending the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an air strike at the start of the Iran war. Accusing Iran of sending weapons and experts into Houthi-held Yemen, the Saudis effectively closed the airspace above it in 2016 and have allowed only limited flights to resume since 2022.

The Houthis,who struck Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport in retaliation, have since vowed to keep flights between Sanaa and Tehran operating and warned that they are prepared to disrupt Saudi airports until what they describe as the “siege” on Sanaa airport is lifted.

Who are the Houthis?

Officially known as Ansar Allah, or Followers of God, the Houthis are part of a clan that hails from Yemen’s northwestern Saada province. They’re followers of the Zaidi branch of Shiite Islam, which accounts for an estimated 25% of the country’s population.

The Houthis emerged in the 1990s after North Yemen and South Yemen were unified, waging a series of rebellions against the government. They seized control of Sanaa in 2014, launching a civil war that still divides Yemen. The group also control portions of the northwest of the country, including much of the Red Sea coast.

The Houthis are anti-West and anti-Israel, and are designated terrorists by the US and European Union. They’re part of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, which includes Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which are also classified as terrorist organizations by the US and others. These groups receive training, technical expertise and weapons from the Islamic Republic.

The Houthis coordinate closely with Iran and largely share its strategic objectives, but they make their own decisions. They don’t rely solely on Iran for arms. They can also draw upon tribal smuggling networks inside Yemen and commercial links to defense export hubs such as China. The group has expanded efforts to assemble and manufacture its own weapons by themselves.

The militia group suffered huge losses after US and Israeli airstrikes last year killed many of its leaders and destroyed a lot of its military equipment, but it has been regrouping and replenishing its weapons stockpile. Its Red Sea campaign elevated its regional standing, demonstrating that it could disrupt global trade and project power well beyond Yemen’s borders.

### [E2007] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 19:15 UTC | 盘中
American Airlines stock tumbles 7% as fuel spike further postpones turnaround
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/american-airlines-aal-2q-2026-earnings.html
American Airlines further cut its 2026 earnings outlook Thursday, citing higher fuel costs, a sign that a jump in fares isn't enough for the U.S. airline that flies the most to fully offset this year's spike in fuel prices.
Its shares were off roughly 9% in midday trading Thursday. The carrier's executive team has been working to convince investors that the airline could improve its multibillion-dollar profit gap with rivals.
American said it could post an adjusted loss per share of as much as 65 cents up to earnings per share of 65 cents this year, below the range it estimated in April between a loss of 40 cents per share up to earnings of $1.10 a share. That April forecast had already been reduced from the start of the year when American expected to earn $1.70 to $2.70 a share this year.
On a call after reporting results, American executives defended their decision to continue expanding flying, which would be up much as 5% in the current quarter.
Fuel prices have been volatile even in the few short weeks of the U.S. airline earnings season that kicked off in July, which has clouded the outlook for carriers this year. Carriers say strong demand and higher fares are helping offset some of the spike. Fuel is airlines' biggest expense after labor.
For the current quarter, American said it could report an adjusted loss of between 70 cents a share and 10 cents a share, below the 28 cents a share in earnings Wall Street expected, but it forecast revenue to rise between 16% to 19%, above the 16.6% analysts project.
American CEO Robert Isom told CNBC in an interview last month that the carrier's "long-range" plan is to close the margin gap that has widened with profit leaders Delta Air Lines and United Airlines but he didn't give a time frame for that goal. American is planning to order new wide-body aircraft this year and will add more high-yielding premium seats to older jets, Isom said.
"While there's still work ahead, the progress we're making is real," Isom said in a staff note Thursday.
Here is what American reported in the second quarter compared with Wall Street estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 15 cents adjusted vs. 3 cents expected
- Revenue: $16.74 billion vs. $16.71 billion expected
American's profit in the three months ended June 30 fell 88% from a year earlier, to $71 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $599 million, or 91 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 16% to $16.74 billion. Passenger revenue per available seat mile, a measure of airlines' pricing power, rose 10% from last year.
Adjusting for one-time items, American posted earnings of 15 cents a share.

### [E2008] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-23 19:15 UTC | 盘中
American Airlines stock tumbles 7% as fuel spike further postpones turnaround
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/american-airlines-aal-2q-2026-earnings.html
American Airlines further cut its 2026 earnings outlook Thursday, citing higher fuel costs, a sign that a jump in fares isn't enough for the U.S. airline that flies the most to fully offset this year's spike in fuel prices.
Its shares were off roughly 9% in midday trading Thursday. The carrier's executive team has been working to convince investors that the airline could improve its multibillion-dollar profit gap with rivals.
American said it could post an adjusted loss per share of as much as 65 cents up to earnings per share of 65 cents this year, below the range it estimated in April between a loss of 40 cents per share up to earnings of $1.10 a share. That April forecast had already been reduced from the start of the year when American expected to earn $1.70 to $2.70 a share this year.
On a call after reporting results, American executives defended their decision to continue expanding flying, which would be up much as 5% in the current quarter.
Fuel prices have been volatile even in the few short weeks of the U.S. airline earnings season that kicked off in July, which has clouded the outlook for carriers this year. Carriers say strong demand and higher fares are helping offset some of the spike. Fuel is airlines' biggest expense after labor.
For the current quarter, American said it could report an adjusted loss of between 70 cents a share and 10 cents a share, below the 28 cents a share in earnings Wall Street expected, but it forecast revenue to rise between 16% to 19%, above the 16.6% analysts project.
American CEO Robert Isom told CNBC in an interview last month that the carrier's "long-range" plan is to close the margin gap that has widened with profit leaders Delta Air Lines and United Airlines but he didn't give a time frame for that goal. American is planning to order new wide-body aircraft this year and will add more high-yielding premium seats to older jets, Isom said.
"While there's still work ahead, the progress we're making is real," Isom said in a staff note Thursday.
Here is what American reported in the second quarter compared with Wall Street estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 15 cents adjusted vs. 3 cents expected
- Revenue: $16.74 billion vs. $16.71 billion expected
American's profit in the three months ended June 30 fell 88% from a year earlier, to $71 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $599 million, or 91 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 16% to $16.74 billion. Passenger revenue per available seat mile, a measure of airlines' pricing power, rose 10% from last year.
Adjusting for one-time items, American posted earnings of 15 cents a share.

### [E3031] Reuters | 2026-07-23 21:35 UTC | 收盘后
War risk insurance costs surge for southern Red Sea voyages after Houthi attacks http://reut.rs/4wl6In6 http://reut.rs/4wl6In6
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2080406395132731820
War risk insurance costs surge for southern Red Sea voyages after Houthi attacks http://reut.rs/4wl6In6 http://reut.rs/4wl6In6

### [E0684] 财联社电报 | 2026-07-23 14:50 UTC | 盘中
美众议院通过决议要求停止对伊朗军事行动
URL: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2435589
【美众议院通过决议要求停止对伊朗军事行动】财联社7月23日电，美国众议院当地时间7月23日通过了一项旨在叫停美国针对伊朗军事行动的决议，要求特朗普政府停止对伊朗的战争。 （央视新闻）

### [E1006] 每日经济新闻快讯 | 2026-07-23 15:38 UTC | 盘中
美众议院再次通过决议叫停攻击伊朗
URL: http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-07-23/4505138.html
2026-07-23 23:38:37
每经AI快讯，据美联社报道，美国众议院7月23日以微弱优势通过了一项旨在叫停美国针对伊朗军事行动的决议。随着战事升级且冲突前景愈发不明朗，此举向美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发出了第二次警告。这项要求对战争采取行动须经国会批准的决议，最终以214票对208票获得通过。参议院预计也将于当日晚些时候审议一项类似的决议。尽管由民主党人推动的这些投票在很大程度上仅具有象征意义，但它向特朗普释放了一个强烈信号：随着战事久拖不决，且两党议员纷纷质疑政府的最终战略目标，他在国会山的支持率正在流失。在众议院主导该决议的华盛顿州民主党众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔表示，这场战争“没有明确的任务、没有战略，也没有最终目标”。（CCTV国际时讯）
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### [E1369] 财联社电报 | 2026-07-23 16:43 UTC | 盘中
财联社7月24日电，三名消息人士称，欧佩克+可能在8月2日会议上决定将9月石油产量配额提高约18.8万桶/日。
URL: https://www.cls.cn/detail/2435638
财联社7月24日电，三名消息人士称，欧佩克+可能在8月2日会议上决定将9月石油产量配额提高约18.8万桶/日。

### [E1377] Wall St Engine | 2026-07-23 16:45 UTC | 盘中
OPEC+ IS LIKELY TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT QUOTAS FOR SEPTEMBER BY ABOUT 188,000 BARRELS PER DAY AT AUGUST 2 MEETING, Three Sources Say - Reuters
URL: https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2080333457654415527
OPEC+ IS LIKELY TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT QUOTAS FOR SEPTEMBER BY ABOUT 188,000 BARRELS PER DAY AT AUGUST 2 MEETING, Three Sources Say - Reuters

### [E1994] First Squawk | 2026-07-23 19:10 UTC | 盘中
NEWS REPORTS ABOUT IRAN'S ATTACK ON A POWER PLANT IN KUWAIT ARE NOTHING MORE THAN A DELIBERATE DECEPTION AND MISINFORMATION - HIGH-RANKING POLITICAL SECURITY SOURCE TOLD AL MAYADEEN
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2080369894823170234
NEWS REPORTS ABOUT IRAN'S ATTACK ON A POWER PLANT IN KUWAIT ARE NOTHING MORE THAN A DELIBERATE DECEPTION AND MISINFORMATION - HIGH-RANKING POLITICAL SECURITY SOURCE TOLD AL MAYADEEN

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。