中东、红海与黑海航运扰动推高能源运输风险，但油价同日回落且亚洲炼化/航运腿净方向不纯

# 美股盘后催化 6/11: 中东、霍尔木兹、红海、黑海多点扰动推高能源和航运风险，亚洲炼化/LNG/航运成本弹性需重估

- 美股会话: 2026-07-24
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 供需/价格；规划重大性: 8/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：Reuters称部分实货原油接近110美元，Bloomberg称油市受多条战线扰动，亚洲LNG升至四个月高位，霍尔木兹通航量下降，红海保险商限制沙特相关货物战争险，俄罗斯黑海油港停装亦被报道。反向事实：当日油价因巴基斯坦/中国推动美伊谈判希望收跌超3%。推断：短线油价标题波动大，但能源进口、保险、绕航和库存安全风险仍会外溢到亚洲炼厂、航空、航运和化工。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- XOM.US (XOM.US): 156.94 +0.03%
- CVX.US (CVX.US): 194.79 +0.19%
- SLB.US (SLB.US): 52.42 +11.01%
- BKR.US (BKR.US): 57.25 +2.07%
- STNG.US (STNG.US): 79.49 +0.11%
- FRO.US (FRO.US): 39.29 +1.13%
- AAL.US (AAL.US): 14.475 +6.79%
- UAL.US (UAL.US): 118.27 +2.54%
- DAL.US (DAL.US): 85.06 +3.77%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- S-Oil (010950.KS) [KR/客户/mixed]: 进口原油溢价、保险和绕航成本上升压缩炼厂利润，若裂解价差同步扩大则可部分对冲。；核验问题: 核实中东原油采购比例、库存天数、裂解价差和运费保险变化。
- SK Innovation (096770.KS) [KR/客户/negative]: 报道点名SK Energy改从埃及Sidi Kerir装船至蔚山，替代采购和高运费可能增加成本。；核验问题: 核实SK Energy利润贡献、采购合同和成本传导能力。
- 日本邮船 (9101.JP) [JP/同源本地股/mixed]: 红海/霍尔木兹/黑海风险可能推高部分船型运价和保险成本，净影响取决于船队和合同结构。；核验问题: 核实油轮、LNG、集运和黑海航线敞口及即期/长约比例。

## 必答问题

- 周末美伊谈判或军事升级是否改变霍尔木兹通行概率？
- 亚洲LNG现货和日韩电力燃气采购成本是否继续上行？
- 保险限制是否已经造成实际出口量下降或绕航？

## 原始证据全文（21 条）

### [E0511] Reuters | 2026-07-24 14:36 UTC | 盘中
Physical oil prices jump with some nearing $110 as Iran, Ukraine wars hit supply
URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/physical-oil-prices-jump-with-some-nearing-110-iran-ukraine-wars-hit-supply-2026-07-24/
The price of physical crude oil cargoes in the Middle East, Europe and ‌Africa jumped this week to two-month highs with some nearing $110 a barrel, as supply disruptions linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars left buyers scrambling to secure prompt supply from other sources.

Global oil price benchmark dated Brent, used to price over 60% of the world's physical crude cargoes, hit $105.70 per barrel on Thursday according to LSEG data, its highest since late May and breaching $100 for the ​first time since early June. That pushed the price of North Sea Forties crude , priced against Brent, to $108.77 on Friday.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked tankers in the Red ​Sea this week, triggering a rerouting of some Saudi shipments via a route that circles Africa. This followed the collapse of ⁠a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal and increased disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Supply considerations are once again at the forefront of thinking," said Tamas Varga, an oil ​broker at PVM.

Adding to the Middle East disruption, Kazakhstan said on Thursday it had reduced oil production after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks forced its main export terminal for CPC Blend ​crude on the Black Sea to close. Kazakh crude production has halved to around 406,000 barrels per day, one source said.

MIDDLE EASTERN GRADES REBOUND

Spot premiums for Middle East benchmark Dubai to swaps doubled on Thursday to $12.74 a barrel, while Oman's premium climbed to $12.62, Reuters data showed. Both premiums are the highest since the end of May.

Middle Eastern grades had traded at wide discounts earlier this month ​during the short-lived truce between the United States and Iran which was agreed in mid-June.

The premium for Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude surged to $19.04, the highest since April ​7, on tight supply for light-sour crude as ship attacks in the Black Sea compounded the supply problems in the Middle East.

The front-month Dubai contract itself touched $99.66 on Thursday, also a high ‌since late ⁠May.

SAUDI CRUDE DIVERSION

The rising security threat has already forced several oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea to head north towards the Suez Canal even as two Chinese supertankers exited on Thursday from Bab el-Mandeb into the Gulf of Aden.

Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) has offered additional crude cargoes for loading from Egypt's Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, according to five trading sources.

Several Asian refiners are looking for cargoes and vessels loading from the Egyptian port, two traders said, which would mean almost a one-month diversion around Africa compared to the usual ​route through Bab el-Mandeb.

South Korea's largest refiner ​SK Energy has chartered a very ⁠large crude carrier (VLCC) to load 2 million barrels of crude from Sidi Kerir to Ulsan, South Korea, on August 18-20 at a lump-sum freight rate of $18.5 million, shipping sources said. The Korean refiner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"Buyers are now ​scrambling to secure supplies, with Japanese and South Korean refiners rushing into the market to buy cargoes," said one of the ​traders with a refiner, ⁠adding that the North Asia refiners are seeking Atlantic Basin crude.

ATLANTIC BASIN CRUDE GRADES ALSO RALLY

North Sea crudes jumped on Thursday, with Ekofisk's premium to dated Brent hitting a one-month high of $4.30 and that of Forties bid up to dated plus $3.60, its firmest premium since May.

The drop in Kazakh exports could boost demand from Mediterranean refiners for North Sea and ⁠West African grades, ​Kpler analysts wrote this week.

Short-term Brent swaps called contracts for differences, which help establish the dated Brent ​price, also surged on Thursday, with the contract for next week doubling to a $11.10 premium.

Sellers of West African crude have started to hike offers, traders told Reuters this week, but the market remains largely in ​wait-and-see mode according to one trader on Thursday.

### [E0512] Reuters | 2026-07-24 14:36 UTC | 盘中
Physical oil prices jump with some nearing $110 as Iran, Ukraine wars hit supply
URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/physical-oil-prices-jump-with-some-nearing-110-iran-ukraine-wars-hit-supply-2026-07-24/
Physical oil prices jump with some nearing $110 as Iran, Ukraine wars hit supply

The price of physical crude oil cargoes in the Middle East, Europe and ‌Africa jumped this week to two-month highs with some nearing $110 a barrel, as supply disruptions linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars left buyers scrambling to secure prompt supply from other sources.

Global oil price benchmark dated Brent, used to price over 60% of the world's physical crude cargoes, hit $105.70 per barrel on Thursday according to LSEG data, its highest since late May and breaching $100 for the ​first time since early June. That pushed the price of North Sea Forties crude , priced against Brent, to $108.77 on Friday.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked tankers in the Red ​Sea this week, triggering a rerouting of some Saudi shipments via a route that circles Africa. This followed the collapse of ⁠a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal and increased disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Supply considerations are once again at the forefront of thinking," said Tamas Varga, an oil ​broker at PVM.

Adding to the Middle East disruption, Kazakhstan said on Thursday it had reduced oil production after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks forced its main export terminal for CPC Blend ​crude on the Black Sea to close. Kazakh crude production has halved to around 406,000 barrels per day, one source said.

MIDDLE EASTERN GRADES REBOUND

Spot premiums for Middle East benchmark Dubai to swaps doubled on Thursday to $12.74 a barrel, while Oman's premium climbed to $12.62, Reuters data showed. Both premiums are the highest since the end of May.

Middle Eastern grades had traded at wide discounts earlier this month ​during the short-lived truce between the United States and Iran which was agreed in mid-June.

The premium for Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude surged to $19.04, the highest since April ​7, on tight supply for light-sour crude as ship attacks in the Black Sea compounded the supply problems in the Middle East.

The front-month Dubai contract itself touched $99.66 on Thursday, also a high ‌since late ⁠May.

SAUDI CRUDE DIVERSION

The rising security threat has already forced several oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea to head north towards the Suez Canal even as two Chinese supertankers exited on Thursday from Bab el-Mandeb into the Gulf of Aden.

Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) has offered additional crude cargoes for loading from Egypt's Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, according to five trading sources.

Several Asian refiners are looking for cargoes and vessels loading from the Egyptian port, two traders said, which would mean almost a one-month diversion around Africa compared to the usual ​route through Bab el-Mandeb.

South Korea's largest refiner ​SK Energy has chartered a very ⁠large crude carrier (VLCC) to load 2 million barrels of crude from Sidi Kerir to Ulsan, South Korea, on August 18-20 at a lump-sum freight rate of $18.5 million, shipping sources said. The Korean refiner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"Buyers are now ​scrambling to secure supplies, with Japanese and South Korean refiners rushing into the market to buy cargoes," said one of the ​traders with a refiner, ⁠adding that the North Asia refiners are seeking Atlantic Basin crude.

ATLANTIC BASIN CRUDE GRADES ALSO RALLY

North Sea crudes jumped on Thursday, with Ekofisk's premium to dated Brent hitting a one-month high of $4.30 and that of Forties bid up to dated plus $3.60, its firmest premium since May.

The drop in Kazakh exports could boost demand from Mediterranean refiners for North Sea and ⁠West African grades, ​Kpler analysts wrote this week.

Short-term Brent swaps called contracts for differences, which help establish the dated Brent ​price, also surged on Thursday, with the contract for next week doubling to a $11.10 premium.

Sellers of West African crude have started to hike offers, traders told Reuters this week, but the market remains largely in ​wait-and-see mode according to one trader on Thursday.

### [E0976] Bloomberg | 2026-07-24 16:14 UTC | 盘中
Russia’s Top Black Sea Oil Port Halts Loadings Amid Safety Fears
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-24/russia-s-top-black-sea-oil-port-halts-loadings-amid-safety-fears
The largest Russian oil port in the Black Sea paused tanker loadings over the past several days, amid a surge in Ukrainian drone attacks in the area.

The Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk hasn’t been loading crude cargoes since early Tuesday, July 21, according to shipping information seen by Bloomberg News that’s corroborated by satellite images and vessel tracking.

While bad weather can sometimes disrupt loadings at the facility, a storm alert notice covering Sheskharis only took effect late on Thursday, two days after the most recent loading was completed.

Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC, which owns the terminal, didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment.

A surge in drone attacks prevented tankers from collecting barrels at the nearby CPC Terminal this week. Any prolonged interruptions at Sheskharis could add further pressure to global markets, already under strain due to the Middle East conflict. Sheskharis shipped an average of 650,000 barrels a day so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

READ: Russia’s Black Sea Waters Not Safe for Ships Amid Attacks

The halt comes after Ukraine significantly ramped up strikes on vessels in Russia’s Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in a move to bring Kremlin to the negotiating table. Moscow has warned all vessels in the nation’s exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea that it’s unsafe to navigate there due to potential threats form Ukraine’s air and sea drones.

### [E1050] Financial Times | 2026-07-24 16:38 UTC | 盘中
Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea
URL: https://www.ft.com/content/52aa89e9-f014-498e-8415-2c435a1c858d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea
Top shipping insurers have told brokers that they will not sell war cargo insurance to Saudi Arabia-linked ships in the Red Sea, following attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, in a further risk to oil exports from the region.
Several of the leading marine war insurers at Lloyd’s of London market said on Friday that they would exclude vessels with any “Saudi touchpoints” from coverage, two brokers said, including ships travelling under other flags that have made past calls at Saudi ports.
The Red Sea and its port of Yanbu have become increasingly critical to the kingdom’s oil exports because of the reliance on the East—West pipeline to move crude while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
The export route can handle as much as 5mn barrels a day of Riyadh’s prewar crude exports of roughly 7mn b/d.
Some insurers are also preparing to cancel existing cargo insurance for certain Saudi-linked vessels, the two brokers added. Underwriters Ascot and Navium told brokers after Wednesday night’s attack, which targeted two oil tankers, that they were preparing to cancel policies for some Saudi-linked tonnage in the Red Sea. Navium declined to comment. Ascot did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Saudi Arabia may be “moving into the same bracket” as Israel, the US and UK in the Red Sea region, said Marsh broker Marcus Baker, with underwriters treating ships with links to these jurisdictions more cautiously owing to heightened risk.
Ships with links to the US, UK and Israel already pay higher premiums for marine war cover on cargoes in the Red Sea.
But the latest attacks represent increased risks to Saudi-linked vessels following a warning to mariners by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group on Monday that vessels calling at Saudi ports would be targeted “in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces”.
Two tankers, the Saudi-flagged Encelia and Layla, were attacked on Wednesday night in strikes claimed by the Houthis.
Several ships carrying cargoes from Saudi Arabia have either U-turned in recent days in order to take the longer voyage to Asia through the Mediterranean and via the Cape of Good Hope.
Others such as the Greek-owned Merbabu, which is carrying 700,000 barrels of crude from Yanbu to India, have turned off their GPS signals in order to transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea close to the Yemeni coast.
Three tankers belonging to the Saudi national shipping company Bahri in the south of the Red Sea also appear to have turned off their GPS signals.
A spokesperson for the Houthis said on X on Friday, however, that “there is no closure” of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and that the Yemeni group was conducting a “naval blockade targeting only the Saudi side”.
Two Chinese-owned tankers, the Xin Long Yang and Cosnew Lake, both carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, started to U-turn on Tuesday before changing course again to successfully pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday. Both were broadcasting that they were “China crew & owner”.
Baker at Marsh added that it was unclear when insurance would become more widely available for Saudi-linked vessels, since this depended on “when the Houthis are going to stop their threats”.

### [E1051] Financial Times | 2026-07-24 16:38 UTC | 盘中
Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea
URL: https://www.ft.com/content/52aa89e9-f014-498e-8415-2c435a1c858d?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Ship insurers restrict war coverage for Saudi Arabian cargoes in Red Sea
Top shipping insurers have told brokers that they will not sell war cargo insurance to Saudi Arabia-linked ships in the Red Sea, following attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, in a further risk to oil exports from the region.
Several of the leading marine war insurers at Lloyd’s of London market said on Friday that they would exclude vessels with any “Saudi touchpoints” from coverage, two brokers said, including ships travelling under other flags that have made past calls at Saudi ports.
The Red Sea and its port of Yanbu have become increasingly critical to the kingdom’s oil exports because of the reliance on the East—West pipeline to move crude while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
The export route can handle as much as 5mn barrels a day of Riyadh’s prewar crude exports of roughly 7mn b/d.
Some insurers are also preparing to cancel existing cargo insurance for certain Saudi-linked vessels, the two brokers added. Underwriters Ascot and Navium told brokers after Wednesday night’s attack, which targeted two oil tankers, that they were preparing to cancel policies for some Saudi-linked tonnage in the Red Sea. Navium declined to comment. Ascot did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Saudi Arabia may be “moving into the same bracket” as Israel, the US and UK in the Red Sea region, said Marsh broker Marcus Baker, with underwriters treating ships with links to these jurisdictions more cautiously owing to heightened risk.
Ships with links to the US, UK and Israel already pay higher premiums for marine war cover on cargoes in the Red Sea.
But the latest attacks represent increased risks to Saudi-linked vessels following a warning to mariners by the Iran-backed Houthi militant group on Monday that vessels calling at Saudi ports would be targeted “in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces”.
Two tankers, the Saudi-flagged Encelia and Layla, were attacked on Wednesday night in strikes claimed by the Houthis.
Several ships carrying cargoes from Saudi Arabia have either U-turned in recent days in order to take the longer voyage to Asia through the Mediterranean and via the Cape of Good Hope.
Others such as the Greek-owned Merbabu, which is carrying 700,000 barrels of crude from Yanbu to India, have turned off their GPS signals in order to transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea close to the Yemeni coast.
Three tankers belonging to the Saudi national shipping company Bahri in the south of the Red Sea also appear to have turned off their GPS signals.
A spokesperson for the Houthis said on X on Friday, however, that “there is no closure” of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and that the Yemeni group was conducting a “naval blockade targeting only the Saudi side”.
Two Chinese-owned tankers, the Xin Long Yang and Cosnew Lake, both carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, started to U-turn on Tuesday before changing course again to successfully pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Thursday. Both were broadcasting that they were “China crew & owner”.
Baker at Marsh added that it was unclear when insurance would become more widely available for Saudi-linked vessels, since this depended on “when the Houthis are going to stop their threats”.

### [E1363] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 18:12 UTC | 盘中
Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/odds-that-the-straits-traffic-returns-to-normal-drop-on-kalshi.html
Market odds on Kalshi for when the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal are below 50% as of Friday afternoon.
Chances that the Strait's traffic flow is normal by July 2027 plummeted to 47% from nearly 70% in the last two days. The drop came after the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump signaling a further "massive attack" against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
Similarly, odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%, while odds are only somewhat better, at 48% that regular shipments will be reached before April 2027. Kalshi's event contract would resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls is above 60 in data verified by IMF Portwatch.
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, add a new "dimension" on the Strait's reopening timeline, Matt Smith, Kpler director of commodity research told CNBC's 'Squawk Box".
"We're pushing that reopening into next year," he said.
In a Truth Social social media post Thursday, Trump said he would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis commit more attacks.
On Friday, Reuters reported that Pakistan is pushing for peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with added impetus from China, citing three Pakistani sources.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

### [E1364] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 18:12 UTC | 盘中
Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/odds-that-the-straits-traffic-returns-to-normal-drop-on-kalshi.html
Market odds on Kalshi for when the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal are below 50% as of Friday afternoon.
Chances that the Strait's traffic flow is normal by July 2027 plummeted to 47% from nearly 70% in the last two days. The drop came after the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump signaling a further "massive attack" against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
Similarly, odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%, while odds are only somewhat better, at 48% that regular shipments will be reached before April 2027. Kalshi's event contract would resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls is above 60 in data verified by IMF Portwatch.
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, add a new "dimension" on the Strait's reopening timeline, Matt Smith, Kpler director of commodity research told CNBC's 'Squawk Box".
"We're pushing that reopening into next year," he said.
In a Truth Social social media post Thursday, Trump said he would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis commit more attacks.
On Friday, Reuters reported that Pakistan is pushing for peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with added impetus from China, citing three Pakistani sources.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

### [E1466] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 18:47 UTC | 盘中
Oil shipments are under attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/oil-tanker-red-sea-hormuz-black-sea-iran-ukraine.html
Oil tankers are increasingly coming under fire on several fronts as economic warfare is deployed as a weapon in the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.
Iran has stepped up its attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz this month as it tries to impose its control over the crucial oil corridor. Tehran's Houthi allies in Yemen opened a second front this week, firing on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea after declaring a maritime embargo against Riyadh.
Ukraine, meanwhile, says it has attacked more than 150 tankers, cargo ships, and other vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, according to the Kyiv Post.
The oil market is now dealing with wars on multiple fronts, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy, told CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Thursday. Oil prices have surged more than 30% in July with Brent crude breaking $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since May, as the security situation has rapidly deteriorated in the southern Red Sea and Hormuz.
Ship traffic through Hormuz has plunged after rebounding in the weeks following the memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran on June 17 to reopen the strait.
"After the collapse of the MOU, we have entered the worst phase of this conflict for merchant shipping," said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of the maritime risk service Marisks, headquartered in Athens, Greece.
"The primary reason is the fact that the Iranians want to assert more authority and control over what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz," Maniatis said.
Some 61 commercial ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman since March 1, resulting in the deaths of at least 17 seafarers and dozens of injuries, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency.
At least a dozen tankers have been struck this month in and around Hormuz, killing at least two seafarers, as fighting sharply escalates between the U.S. and Iran, according to the IMO data.
The Red Sea attacks now threaten millions of barrels per day of oil that the Saudis redirected through a pipeline to its western coast amid to the security situation in Hormuz. The Saudi exports transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
"The Iranians and the Houthis together now are implementing a very significant blow to American national interests, the American oil companies and of course Saudi Arabia," Maniatis said. "But they're not managing to entirely choke exports."
Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea from 2023 to 2025 in response to Israel's war in Gaza dramatically reduced traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. Shipping through the strait had still not fully recovered.
The Saudis can redirect some oil through a pipeline that stretches from a port on the Red Sea across Egypt to the Mediterranean but the logistics are complex, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler.
Supertankers cannot transit the Suez Canal fully loaded because the channel is too shallow, Smith said. The Saudis would have to unload half the cargo at the port of Ain Sokhna, pipe it through to the port of Sidi Kerir, send the supertanker through Suez and retrieve the oil on the other side, he said.
The supertanker would then face a much longer journey around Africa to destinations in Asia, and would have to return on the same route through the Suez due to Houthi threats at the Bab el-Mandeb, Smith said. The roundtrip journey would take around eight weeks, he said.
Oil shipments by sea from the Middle East are increasingly facing a "no-way out" scenario due to the disruptions in the Red Sea, Croft said.
In the Black Sea, meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium has stopped loading tankers at the Russian port of Novorossiysk due to attacks on vessels. Kazakhstan exports about 80% of its crude oil through that pipeline, Croft said in a note to clients this week.
The Kazakhs have limited alternatives to the pipeline, which means their production of around 1.7 million bpd in June, could face shut-ins, Croft said. The Ukrainians have also pounded Russian refineries, resulting in more than 50% of the country's capacity coming offline, the analyst said.
"Russia has now put a export ban on products and their refineries have been hit so massively by Ukraine," Croft told CNBC. "Russia is one of the largest product exporters, one the largest diesel exporters. It's really tightening the products market as well as the crude market."
The dangerous escalation in the Middle East could potentially spike Brent oil prices beyond the 2022 high of $128 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine, Croft said in the note. In a worst-case scenario, where the region descends into full-scale war, Brent could surpass the 2008 peak of $148 per barrel, she said.

### [E1772] Bloomberg | 2026-07-24 20:15 UTC | 收盘后
How Oil Chaos on Four Fronts Drives Wild Swings and Supply Fears
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-07-24/oil-prices-volatile-as-supply-disruptions-hit-four-global-fronts
George Prokopiou, the reclusive Greek tanker magnate, has made a fortune by sending his vessels to places where others fear to pass. Since the Iran war broke out, his company, Dynacom Tankers Management, has succeeded in getting more than a dozen cargoes through the contested Strait of Hormuz, braving drone and missile attacks to get oil to market.

Over the last week, the fate of Dynacom’s tankers shows the growing geopolitical risks putting the oil market under intense strain.

On July 19, a Dynacom vessel was hit, possibly by a drone, while trying to load Kazakh oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium Terminal in Russia — part of an escalating campaign by Kyiv to disrupt Russian exports. The following day, two of the company’s vessels were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint that separates the Persian Gulf from the open sea.

A fourth of Prokopiou’s ships was in the Red Sea, preparing to sail through another Middle East chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb. After Iran-backed Houthi rebels announced an embargo on Saudi cargoes passing through the strait, and claimed to attack two tankers, the ship signaled it would turn back.

Brent futures had fallen back to around $70 earlier this month in anticipation of a resolution to the Iran war. As the conflict in the Middle East widens to the Red Sea, and as Ukrainian drones hit Russian ships and refineries, Brent surged back past $100 a barrel. If the disruption continues, and prices remain high, that would likely push up inflation and pump prices, and weigh on global growth.

The market survived the initial shock of the war in better shape than many expected, but inventories are now depleted, and countries may be less well prepared for what comes next. Traders and analysts are finding it harder than ever to predict the impacts of an unprecedented confluence of events — and price signals from the US President that can cause dramatic shifts.

“We definitely feel that there is more momentum here in the market towards the upside,” said Mohamed El Ghandour, head of distillates trading at commodity trader BB Energy. “But we can’t discount that at any point, a reversal could come from a tweet from someone saying, ‘Oh yeah, I spoke to my counterpart yesterday and we might go back to the table.’”

Before the war began in late February, around 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products went through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning about one in five of the world’s barrels had to transit the chokepoint.

More than 100 large tankers were initially trapped. But, just 10 days into the war, a Dynacom-operated vessel popped up on tracking systems showing its location near India, after having last signaled from within the Persian Gulf. In the following weeks, a growing stream of barrels would exit the strait — some signaling openly while other ships traveled under cover of darkness.

The US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal in June, and transits picked up sharply, albeit with wide fluctuations in the amount going through. At one point as much as 18 million barrels made their way out of the chokepoint in a single day, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The impact of the closure of Hormuz the first time around wasn’t as large as some analysts predicted, because China, the world’s largest importer of crude, reduced its purchases, while the US and other wealthy nations released hundreds of millions of barrels from their strategic reserves. Those workarounds meant that analyst predictions of oil prices at $150 and even $200 were never met. But they came at a cost: drawing down the stockpile buffer that helps act as a safety net in times of crisis. Traders say that means the system is now more vulnerable in the face of the current slew of challenges.

The ceasefire was tested from the start, with some exchanges of fire. Then, in mid-July, it collapsed. The US launched airstrikes, and Iranian forces struck back against American bases and other targets in the region. Ships attempting to make runs on a route close to Oman were targeted too.

A ship matching the description of one of the stricken Dynacom tankers was seen in satellite images near Iranian waters on Tuesday. An external representative for the company said it didn’t have anything to add beyond a statement published on the day of the attack confirming the vessel had been evacuated.

“The situation has remained, to say the least, extremely volatile,” Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive officer of TotalEnergies SE, told investors this week. “Some are even beginning to consider that this could become a new normal, with the strait opening on and off depending on the level of tensions between the parties.”

Some shipowners who have been willing to transit the waterway said they’re more cautious about crossing now. Two officials at shipping companies, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive information, said that they would continue to make the transit, but with less frequency than before. That means less supply is heading for market.

As the world fixated on Hormuz, another crisis was brewing in Russia. Ukraine’s drones have been striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory, increasingly targeting oil refineries and other economic infrastructure.

Since the start of this year, Kyiv has carried out at least 63 attacks on refineries, compared with about 21 strikes for the same period a year ago, according to a Bloomberg tally, based on statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s refining system have dramatically tightened the market for refined fuels, particularly diesel. That comes on top of supply constraints resulting from the disruptions to cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz — which led to Asian refiners throttling back their outputs, as well as attacks on Middle Eastern processing plants.

Europe’s benchmark diesel futures are trading close to $170 a barrel, while jet fuel in the region is closer to $180. National average gasoline prices in the US rose back above $4 a gallon this week for the first time since mid-June.

“Diesel and jet fuel markets remain exceptionally tight,” said Josu Jon Imaz, CEO at Repsol SA, one of Europe’s biggest oil refiners. “This situation is driven by the simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and it is probably more forgotten, what is happening in Russia.”

Even more concerning for the oil market, Ukrainian forces have started widening their attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, a waterway that ships about 20% of Russia’s seaborne flows. Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest port in the Black Sea, halted loadings over the past few days following a surge in Ukrainian attacks in the area.

Over the past week, three ships loading oil at the nearby CPC terminal, the primary export point for crude from Kazakhstan, were attacked — including one of Dynacom’s. So too were two vessels trying to reach the terminal, people familiar with the matter said, leaving shipowners reluctant to call at the port. Oil flows from the port have come to a standstill, cutting almost 2% of global supply at a time the market needs every barrel it can get.

In Kazakhstan, industry insiders said they’re worried about how long the CPC disruption might last, and that the Central Asian country doesn’t have significant capacity to export barrels via alternative routes.

CPC exports, the vast majority of which is oil from Kazakhstan, have been running at a rate of about 1.8 million barrels a day. The sudden disruption to CPC is particularly vital for European refiners who rely on the barrels. They are likely to be faced with two options: reduce processing rates, further increasing the strain in fuel markets, or pay up for expensive crude at a time of relative scarcity.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, several traders said they’ve had calls over the past week from oil products buyers in North Africa and parts of the Mediterranean, who previously relied on discounted supply from Russia but were now looking for new sources. Crude buyers in Asia say they’re increasingly hemmed in with what they can purchase given the spate of conflicts, while prices in Europe have jumped after the CPC outage.

The Saudi port of Yanbu has become a vital lifeline to oil markets over the course of the Hormuz crisis. Thanks to a pipeline system stretching more than 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) across the kingdom, Saudi Arabia has been shipping record volumes of oil from the Red Sea, reaching almost 6 million barrels a day at one point, shortly before the Houthis renewed their threat of attack.

That workaround has been thrown into jeopardy. On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed to have attacked two ships. Since then, loading activities at Yanbu have become increasingly opaque, with ships switching off their satellite transponders before arriving at the terminal. That makes it harder to detect how many barrels are loading, but also potentially keeps vessels and their crews safer once they leave the port.

A South Korean refiner booked a supertanker to take barrels from Egypt’s northern coast to Asia around the southern tip of Africa, according to fixture data and shipbrokers. It’s a rare voyage that shows the contingency planning taking place.

Disruptions in the Red Sea are likely to be less pronounced and drawn out as in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia can always divert its exports north thanks to a series of pipelines and the Suez Canal. Some Saudi cargoes are still flowing out of Bab el-Mandeb, in Chinese-owned ships.

“There’s still lots of questions as to how tight of a closure this is going to be and how much Saudi is then able to reroute north,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “It’ll manifest a supply loss in the interim, but it’s a relatively small problem next to Hormuz.”

The scale of the swings in the oil market over the last five months mean that traders are wary of making predictions too far into the future. At the outset of the Iran war, the International Energy Agency warned there was a risk of jet fuel shortages over summer — those ultimately never materialized.

When oil gushed out of Hormuz in the days after the interim peace deal between the US and Iran, analysts quietly began to bring up the potential of oil returning to a glutted market that had been expected to materialize in 2026. Then the war began again.

Traders are wary this time around. A massive pullback in Chinese consumption helped tamp down prices in the first wave of conflict, but how demand in the world’s second largest economy responds this time around is uncertain. Some in the markets fear that prices are just one presidential social media post away from falling back as quickly as they rallied. Goldman Sachs said that its base case for Brent in the fourth quarter is $80 per barrel, but a sustained disruption could see prices exceed $120 — showing how much potential there is for wild swings in the market.

“If all the oil that came off the market comes back, we’re in a glut,” said Martijn Rats, global commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley. “That could happen, but we’re not exactly in a stable world, and we seem to stumble from outage to outage.”

### [E1773] Bloomberg | 2026-07-24 20:15 UTC | 收盘后
How Oil Chaos on Four Fronts Drives Wild Swings and Supply Fears
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-07-24/oil-prices-volatile-as-supply-disruptions-hit-four-global-fronts
George Prokopiou, the reclusive Greek tanker magnate, has made a fortune by sending his vessels to places where others fear to pass. Since the Iran war broke out, his company, Dynacom Tankers Management, has succeeded in getting more than a dozen cargoes through the contested Strait of Hormuz, braving drone and missile attacks to get oil to market.

Over the last week, the fate of Dynacom’s tankers shows the growing geopolitical risks putting the oil market under intense strain.

On July 19, a Dynacom vessel was hit, possibly by a drone, while trying to load Kazakh oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium Terminal in Russia — part of an escalating campaign by Kyiv to disrupt Russian exports. The following day, two of the company’s vessels were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint that separates the Persian Gulf from the open sea.

A fourth of Prokopiou’s ships was in the Red Sea, preparing to sail through another Middle East chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb. After Iran-backed Houthi rebels announced an embargo on Saudi cargoes passing through the strait, and claimed to attack two tankers, the ship signaled it would turn back.

Brent futures had fallen back to around $70 earlier this month in anticipation of a resolution to the Iran war. As the conflict in the Middle East widens to the Red Sea, and as Ukrainian drones hit Russian ships and refineries, Brent surged back past $100 a barrel. If the disruption continues, and prices remain high, that would likely push up inflation and pump prices, and weigh on global growth.

The market survived the initial shock of the war in better shape than many expected, but inventories are now depleted, and countries may be less well prepared for what comes next. Traders and analysts are finding it harder than ever to predict the impacts of an unprecedented confluence of events — and price signals from the US President that can cause dramatic shifts.

“We definitely feel that there is more momentum here in the market towards the upside,” said Mohamed El Ghandour, head of distillates trading at commodity trader BB Energy. “But we can’t discount that at any point, a reversal could come from a tweet from someone saying, ‘Oh yeah, I spoke to my counterpart yesterday and we might go back to the table.’”

Before the war began in late February, around 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products went through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning about one in five of the world’s barrels had to transit the chokepoint.

More than 100 large tankers were initially trapped. But, just 10 days into the war, a Dynacom-operated vessel popped up on tracking systems showing its location near India, after having last signaled from within the Persian Gulf. In the following weeks, a growing stream of barrels would exit the strait — some signaling openly while other ships traveled under cover of darkness.

The US and Iran agreed to an interim peace deal in June, and transits picked up sharply, albeit with wide fluctuations in the amount going through. At one point as much as 18 million barrels made their way out of the chokepoint in a single day, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The impact of the closure of Hormuz the first time around wasn’t as large as some analysts predicted, because China, the world’s largest importer of crude, reduced its purchases, while the US and other wealthy nations released hundreds of millions of barrels from their strategic reserves. Those workarounds meant that analyst predictions of oil prices at $150 and even $200 were never met. But they came at a cost: drawing down the stockpile buffer that helps act as a safety net in times of crisis. Traders say that means the system is now more vulnerable in the face of the current slew of challenges.

The ceasefire was tested from the start, with some exchanges of fire. Then, in mid-July, it collapsed. The US launched airstrikes, and Iranian forces struck back against American bases and other targets in the region. Ships attempting to make runs on a route close to Oman were targeted too.

A ship matching the description of one of the stricken Dynacom tankers was seen in satellite images near Iranian waters on Tuesday. An external representative for the company said it didn’t have anything to add beyond a statement published on the day of the attack confirming the vessel had been evacuated.

“The situation has remained, to say the least, extremely volatile,” Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive officer of TotalEnergies SE, told investors this week. “Some are even beginning to consider that this could become a new normal, with the strait opening on and off depending on the level of tensions between the parties.”

Some shipowners who have been willing to transit the waterway said they’re more cautious about crossing now. Two officials at shipping companies, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive information, said that they would continue to make the transit, but with less frequency than before. That means less supply is heading for market.

As the world fixated on Hormuz, another crisis was brewing in Russia. Ukraine’s drones have been striking deeper and deeper into Russian territory, increasingly targeting oil refineries and other economic infrastructure.

Since the start of this year, Kyiv has carried out at least 63 attacks on refineries, compared with about 21 strikes for the same period a year ago, according to a Bloomberg tally, based on statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s refining system have dramatically tightened the market for refined fuels, particularly diesel. That comes on top of supply constraints resulting from the disruptions to cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz — which led to Asian refiners throttling back their outputs, as well as attacks on Middle Eastern processing plants.

Europe’s benchmark diesel futures are trading close to $170 a barrel, while jet fuel in the region is closer to $180. National average gasoline prices in the US rose back above $4 a gallon this week for the first time since mid-June.

“Diesel and jet fuel markets remain exceptionally tight,” said Josu Jon Imaz, CEO at Repsol SA, one of Europe’s biggest oil refiners. “This situation is driven by the simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and it is probably more forgotten, what is happening in Russia.”

Even more concerning for the oil market, Ukrainian forces have started widening their attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, a waterway that ships about 20% of Russia’s seaborne flows. Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest port in the Black Sea, halted loadings over the past few days following a surge in Ukrainian attacks in the area.

Over the past week, three ships loading oil at the nearby CPC terminal, the primary export point for crude from Kazakhstan, were attacked — including one of Dynacom’s. So too were two vessels trying to reach the terminal, people familiar with the matter said, leaving shipowners reluctant to call at the port. Oil flows from the port have come to a standstill, cutting almost 2% of global supply at a time the market needs every barrel it can get.

In Kazakhstan, industry insiders said they’re worried about how long the CPC disruption might last, and that the Central Asian country doesn’t have significant capacity to export barrels via alternative routes.

CPC exports, the vast majority of which is oil from Kazakhstan, have been running at a rate of about 1.8 million barrels a day. The sudden disruption to CPC is particularly vital for European refiners who rely on the barrels. They are likely to be faced with two options: reduce processing rates, further increasing the strain in fuel markets, or pay up for expensive crude at a time of relative scarcity.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, several traders said they’ve had calls over the past week from oil products buyers in North Africa and parts of the Mediterranean, who previously relied on discounted supply from Russia but were now looking for new sources. Crude buyers in Asia say they’re increasingly hemmed in with what they can purchase given the spate of conflicts, while prices in Europe have jumped after the CPC outage.

The Saudi port of Yanbu has become a vital lifeline to oil markets over the course of the Hormuz crisis. Thanks to a pipeline system stretching more than 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) across the kingdom, Saudi Arabia has been shipping record volumes of oil from the Red Sea, reaching almost 6 million barrels a day at one point, shortly before the Houthis renewed their threat of attack.

That workaround has been thrown into jeopardy. On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed to have attacked two ships. Since then, loading activities at Yanbu have become increasingly opaque, with ships switching off their satellite transponders before arriving at the terminal. That makes it harder to detect how many barrels are loading, but also potentially keeps vessels and their crews safer once they leave the port.

A South Korean refiner booked a supertanker to take barrels from Egypt’s northern coast to Asia around the southern tip of Africa, according to fixture data and shipbrokers. It’s a rare voyage that shows the contingency planning taking place.

Disruptions in the Red Sea are likely to be less pronounced and drawn out as in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia can always divert its exports north thanks to a series of pipelines and the Suez Canal. Some Saudi cargoes are still flowing out of Bab el-Mandeb, in Chinese-owned ships.

“There’s still lots of questions as to how tight of a closure this is going to be and how much Saudi is then able to reroute north,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “It’ll manifest a supply loss in the interim, but it’s a relatively small problem next to Hormuz.”

The scale of the swings in the oil market over the last five months mean that traders are wary of making predictions too far into the future. At the outset of the Iran war, the International Energy Agency warned there was a risk of jet fuel shortages over summer — those ultimately never materialized.

When oil gushed out of Hormuz in the days after the interim peace deal between the US and Iran, analysts quietly began to bring up the potential of oil returning to a glutted market that had been expected to materialize in 2026. Then the war began again.

Traders are wary this time around. A massive pullback in Chinese consumption helped tamp down prices in the first wave of conflict, but how demand in the world’s second largest economy responds this time around is uncertain. Some in the markets fear that prices are just one presidential social media post away from falling back as quickly as they rallied. Goldman Sachs said that its base case for Brent in the fourth quarter is $80 per barrel, but a sustained disruption could see prices exceed $120 — showing how much potential there is for wild swings in the market.

“If all the oil that came off the market comes back, we’re in a glut,” said Martijn Rats, global commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley. “That could happen, but we’re not exactly in a stable world, and we seem to stumble from outage to outage.”

### [E1828] Reuters | 2026-07-24 20:30 UTC | 收盘后
Asia LNG hits four-month high on fears of wider Mideast shipping disruption http://reut.rs/4wW8I57 http://reut.rs/4wW8I57
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2080752456712020455
Asia LNG hits four-month high on fears of wider Mideast shipping disruption http://reut.rs/4wW8I57 http://reut.rs/4wW8I57

### [E1889] Reuters | 2026-07-24 20:47 UTC | 收盘后
Barclays sees upside risks to 2026 Brent price view given Strait of Hormuz impasse
URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/barclays-sees-upside-risks-2026-brent-price-view-given-strait-hormuz-impasse-2026-07-24/
Barclays sees upside risks to 2026 Brent price view given Strait of Hormuz impasse

Barclays said on Friday that risks to its oil price ​forecasts are skewed higher depending on how ‌long the "impasse" over the Strait of Hormuz lasts.

In a scenario in which the current situation lasts for another one, two, ​or three months, Barclays thinks there could ​be a $2 per barrel, $7/bbl or $10/bbl upside risk, respectively, ⁠to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast.

Oil prices spiked to $100 ​a barrel for the first time since May this ​week, as renewed hostilities revived investor worries over global supply disruptions from a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. ​Oil prices eased to just below $100 on Friday.

"As ​is generally the case, spot price will likely lead the ‌move ⁠and could test $150/bbl in the 3-months scenario," the bank said in a note.

The Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of ​global energy supplies ​before the ⁠conflict began.

Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its $96/bbl and $85/bbl Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027, ​respectively.

The conflict has deepened forecasts of a global ​oil ⁠deficit in 2026, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, but recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and ⁠weaker ​demand from China are expected ​to tip the market into an oversupply in 2027.

### [E2014] Reuters | 2026-07-24 21:40 UTC | 收盘后
Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker attacked in Iranian waters, Indian embassy says http://reut.rs/4fxzMAN http://reut.rs/4fxzMAN
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2080770088240545917
Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker attacked in Iranian waters, Indian embassy says http://reut.rs/4fxzMAN http://reut.rs/4fxzMAN

### [E0898] Seeking Alpha | 2026-07-24 15:58 UTC | 盘中
Pakistan begins path toward talks between U.S. and Iran, says reports; oil prices lower
URL: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4618263-pakistan-begins-path-toward-talks-between-u-s-and-iran-says-reports-oil-prices-lower?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news
Oil prices pulled back on Friday after a brief spike above $100 per barrel, with crude oil futures settling at $88.42 (CL1:COM) and Brent crude (CO1:COM) at $96.16. The market relief followed reports of fresh diplomatic efforts backed by China aimed at resuming stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks to end their nearly five-month-old war.
Pakistan has begun exploring a path toward restarting negotiations between Washington and Tehran in a new push initiated by Beijing, three Pakistani sources told Reuters.
The exploratory discussions took place during a visit by Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni to Islamabad this week—his second trip within 10 days—where he met with Pakistani government leaders and army chief Asim Munir, according to Pakistani government statements.
Beijing has strong economic motivations driving these mediation efforts.
"The Chinese are unhappy because Iran's attacks on other Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are hitting their interests," a Pakistani government official told Reuters.
Despite international sanctions on Tehran, China remains Iran's largest trading partner and primary buyer of its exported crude oil, benefiting from steep discounts on the energy source.
All three Pakistani sources cautioned Reuters that significant obstacles to any talks remain. A halt in attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations would now be a "prerequisite for any talks to resume," a Pakistani official told the news agency, adding that Pakistan has explicitly conveyed this message to Iran.
The stakes were raised Thursday when Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement struck two Saudi oil tankers as part of their declared naval blockade, threatening to create a second chokepoint for global oil supplies alongside the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have plummeted. Crude (CL1:COM) declined 4.1% and Brent (CO1:COM) is 4.5% lower.

### [E1192] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 17:18 UTC | 盘中
Treasury yields slide as oil prices fall amid hopes for new U.S.-Iran peace talks
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/treasury-yields-bonds-us-debt.html
U.S. Treasury yields retreated on Friday as oil prices dropped following a report that Pakistan is exploring a way to restart peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for mortgage and auto loans and credit card debt — was last down more than 4 basis points at 4.657%. On Thursday, it had risen above 4.7%, the highest since Jan. 15, 2025, before the start of President Donald Trump's second term.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, also pulled back more than 4 basis points, to 4.311%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was down more than 3 basis points, to 5.14%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
On Friday, Reuters reported that Pakistan, with China's support, is exploring a path to resume talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. The report said that Pakistan's foreign minister discussed the new push with Chinese officials last week.
International benchmark Brent crude futures declined 4% to around $96 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures shed 4% to trade at around $88.
This comes after President Donald Trump said he will soon make a decision on whether to launch a "massive attack" on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East expanded to a new battleground in the Red Sea earlier this week as Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened oil tankers.
"I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," Trump said to Axios on Thursday.
U.S. forces have already hammered Iranian targets in recent days. In fact, Central Command completed its 13th night of strikes in a row overnight.
Yields were lower earlier in the day after the S&P Global Flash U.S. purchasing managers index — which measures the economic health of American manufacturing and the service sector — moved down slightly in July to 53.8, below the 54.4 that economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated.
— CNBC's Chloe Taylor contributed to this report.

### [E1193] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 17:18 UTC | 盘中
Treasury yields slide as oil prices fall amid hopes for new U.S.-Iran peace talks
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/treasury-yields-bonds-us-debt.html
U.S. Treasury yields retreated on Friday as oil prices dropped following a report that Pakistan is exploring a way to restart peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for mortgage and auto loans and credit card debt — was last down more than 4 basis points at 4.657%. On Thursday, it had risen above 4.7%, the highest since Jan. 15, 2025, before the start of President Donald Trump's second term.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, also pulled back more than 4 basis points, to 4.311%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was down more than 3 basis points, to 5.14%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
On Friday, Reuters reported that Pakistan, with China's support, is exploring a path to resume talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the conflict in the Middle East. The report said that Pakistan's foreign minister discussed the new push with Chinese officials last week.
International benchmark Brent crude futures declined 4% to around $96 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures shed 4% to trade at around $88.
This comes after President Donald Trump said he will soon make a decision on whether to launch a "massive attack" on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East expanded to a new battleground in the Red Sea earlier this week as Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened oil tankers.
"I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," Trump said to Axios on Thursday.
U.S. forces have already hammered Iranian targets in recent days. In fact, Central Command completed its 13th night of strikes in a row overnight.
Yields were lower earlier in the day after the S&P Global Flash U.S. purchasing managers index — which measures the economic health of American manufacturing and the service sector — moved down slightly in July to 53.8, below the 54.4 that economists polled by Dow Jones had estimated.
— CNBC's Chloe Taylor contributed to this report.

### [E1448] Reuters | 2026-07-24 18:40 UTC | 盘中
Pakistan, Iran explore path towards new talks with US in a China-initiated push, sources say http://reut.rs/4vJwGzB http://reut.rs/4vJwGzB
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2080724791321907290
Pakistan, Iran explore path towards new talks with US in a China-initiated push, sources say http://reut.rs/4vJwGzB http://reut.rs/4vJwGzB

### [E1540] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 19:12 UTC | 盘中
Oil falls on report Pakistan is pushing for new U.S.-Iran talks with China's backing
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/oil-price-trump-hormuz-red-sea-iran-war.html
Oil prices dropped Friday on a report that Pakistan is looking for a way to restart talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, fell nearly 4% to close at $96.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 3% to settle at $89.31 per barrel.
Three sources told Reuters that Pakistan's effort to renew U.S.-Iran talks was backed by China.
"The Chinese are unhappy because Iran's attacks on other Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are hitting their interests," a Pakistani government official told Reuters.
U.S. crude oil gained about 8% this week and Brent advanced nearly 10% as fighting in the Middle East has sharply escalated.
Overnight, the U.S. Central Command completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities.
Centcom said the strikes were intended to "further diminish the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
"The international waterway remains open for transit despite recent attacks from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Commercial vessels continue to freely navigate the strait with U.S. military support," the military unit said in a statement.
"More than 50,000 U.S. service members are currently operating across the Middle East."
U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Thursday that he was mulling a "massive attack" on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East extended to a new battleground in the Red Sea. The president said the proposed strikes would be bigger than anything seen in the war so far, and that Iran has not "received enough pain yet."
"I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," he said in the interview.
It came after Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for further attacks by Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis, after the militant group claimed to have struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
"If they do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves," he said in a Truth Social post.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Thursday that it had attacked U.S. military facilities at an American base in Jordan, according to state media.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled Trump's approach to the Iran war as "a head for an eye."
In a Friday morning note, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at capital.com, said growing instability around key shipping routes had rebuilt a "sizeable geopolitical risk premium" into oil markets.
"Investor sentiment has been dampened by continued disruption in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial vessels have compounded concerns over global trade and energy security," she said. "Combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the developments have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated."
Meanwhile, Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a Thursday note that markets may be overestimating the oil market's recovery from the conflict.
"We continue to expect the production recovery process in the Middle East to be slower than the market anticipates, as it requires an increase in inbound vessels," he said. "With the conflict resuming, those flows remain depressed. This should keep the oil market tight and prices supported."
UBS sees Brent crude falling to $85 a barrel by the end of the year.

### [E1541] CNBC Top News | 2026-07-24 19:12 UTC | 盘中
Oil falls on report Pakistan is pushing for new U.S.-Iran talks with China's backing
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/oil-price-trump-hormuz-red-sea-iran-war.html
Oil prices dropped by more than 4% Friday on a report that Pakistan is looking for a way to restart talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were nearly 5% lower at $95.73 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were 4.3% lower to trade at $88.27 per barrel.
Three sources told Reuters that Pakistan's effort to renew U.S.-Iran talks was backed by China.
"The Chinese are unhappy because Iran's attacks on other Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are hitting their interests," a Pakistani government official told Reuters.
U.S. crude oil has gained about 7% this week and Brent is up more than 8% as fighting in the Middle East has sharply escalated.
Overnight, the U.S. Central Command completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities.
Centcom said the strikes were intended to "further diminish the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz."
"The international waterway remains open for transit despite recent attacks from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Commercial vessels continue to freely navigate the strait with U.S. military support," the military unit said in a statement.
"More than 50,000 U.S. service members are currently operating across the Middle East."
U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Thursday that he was mulling a "massive attack" on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East extended to a new battleground in the Red Sea. The president said the proposed strikes would be bigger than anything seen in the war so far, and that Iran has not "received enough pain yet."
"I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it," he said in the interview.
It came after Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for further attacks by Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthis, after the militant group claimed to have struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
"If they do this again, the U.S. will hold Iran responsible, in that the Houthis are a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran, and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves," he said in a Truth Social post.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Thursday that it had attacked U.S. military facilities at an American base in Jordan, according to state media.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled Trump's approach to the Iran war as "a head for an eye."
In a Friday morning note, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at capital.com, said growing instability around key shipping routes had rebuilt a "sizeable geopolitical risk premium" into oil markets.
"Investor sentiment has been dampened by continued disruption in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial vessels have compounded concerns over global trade and energy security," she said. "Combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the developments have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated."
Meanwhile, Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a Thursday note that markets may be overestimating the oil market's recovery from the conflict.
"We continue to expect the production recovery process in the Middle East to be slower than the market anticipates, as it requires an increase in inbound vessels," he said. "With the conflict resuming, those flows remain depressed. This should keep the oil market tight and prices supported."
UBS sees Brent crude falling to $85 a barrel by the end of the year.

### [E1803] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-24 20:20 UTC | 收盘后
伊朗和阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡问题举行会谈
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3139646
据伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社24日报道，阿曼外交代表团当天抵达伊朗首都德黑兰，就霍尔木兹海峡管理问题举行会谈。报道称，此访旨在建立霍尔木兹海峡海上交通管理的适当机制。 另据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗外长阿拉格齐24日晚间与阿曼外交大臣巴德尔通电话，讨论近期地区局势、霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾商业航运安全等问题。（新华社）

伊朗和阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡问题举行会谈

### [E1988] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-07-24 21:27 UTC | 收盘后
特朗普称美国与伊朗仍在对话
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3139662
尽管美国和伊朗近日持续相互空袭，但美国总统特朗普24日在白宫对媒体表示，美国与伊朗现在仍在对话。 被问及是否已作出对伊朗发动大规模打击的决定时，特朗普说，“我们现在仍在与他们进行对话”，并称伊朗方面“这次是认真的”，但这并不意味着一定能够达成协议。

他同时威胁说，美方也可继续目前对伊朗的军事打击，“如有必要，完全可以提升到一个更高水平。我们已经做好准备，随时可以行动”。 另据美国多家媒体报道，特朗普当天稍早时与其高级顾问和内阁高级成员会面，讨论是否加大对伊朗的军事打击力度。 特朗普23日在接受美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站采访时称，他正在“认真考虑”重启对伊朗的大规模作战行动，并已“接近作出决定”。（新华社）

特朗普称美国与伊朗仍在对话

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。