特朗普称伊朗谈判与霍尔木兹重开压低油价，但伊朗否认直接谈判且航运风险未解除

# 美股盘后催化 10/12: 特朗普称伊朗谈判和霍尔木兹重开推动油价大跌，但伊朗否认直接谈判且航运风险未解除

- 美股会话: 2026-08-03
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 供需/价格；规划重大性: 7/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：多条材料显示WTI/Brent因特朗普称暂缓攻击、给伊朗谈判机会、第一阶段重开霍尔木兹而下跌约5%；同时伊朗否认直接谈判，沙特油轮转向、红海/霍尔木兹风险和黑海攻击仍构成反向证据。推断：短期压制上游油气，利好航空、物流、化工和能源进口成本；但若通航风险未实际缓和，油价和运费可能反转。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- XOM.US (XOM.US): 155.06 -0.24%
- CVX.US (CVX.US): 193.18 -1.85%
- FANG.US (FANG.US): 202.95 +1.59% (数据日=2026-07-31)
- DAL.US (DAL.US): 91.59 +4.75%
- UAL.US (UAL.US): 128.39 +5.82%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 日本航空 (9201.JP) [JP/客户/positive]: 油价回落通常降低航油成本，但中东航路和保险风险会削弱利好。；核验问题: 核实燃油套保、航油价格滞后、燃油附加费和中东/欧洲航线成本。
- 大韩航空 (003490.KS) [KR/客户/positive]: 航油成本下降改善利润率，但绕飞和货运航线风险需抵消。；核验问题: 核实燃油套保比例、中东航线暴露和油价敏感度。
- 中国海洋石油 (0883.HK) [HK/同源本地股/negative]: 油价风险溢价回落会压低上游盈利预期。；核验问题: 核实Brent远期曲线、实现油价和公司分红/回购政策敏感度。
- 日本邮船 (9101.JP) [JP/其它/mixed]: 油价下降降低燃油成本，但红海/亚丁湾/霍尔木兹风险可能推高保险和绕航成本。；核验问题: 核实油轮转向是否影响其船队、运价和保险费用。

## 必答问题

- 美伊是否存在可验证直接或间接谈判机制？
- 霍尔木兹AIS流量、油轮保险和绕航成本是否实际改善？
- 油价下跌会否传导到航煤和柴油，而非仅原油期货？

## 原始证据全文（7 条）

### [E0894] Bloomberg | 2026-08-03 15:39 UTC | 盘中
Oil Slips as Trump Holds Off Iran Attack, Says Talks to Resume
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/oil-slips-as-trump-holds-off-iran-attack-says-talks-to-resume-msdeau9b
Oil fell after US President Donald Trump said he called off a planned attack on Iran and that new talks with the Islamic Republic would begin on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate lost more than 7% in early trading, before paring some of the decline on mixed signals from Iran, to trade near $79 a barrel. Iran suggested negotiations with Oman to get more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz are making progress but it was not “currently” in talks with the US.

Trump said on Sunday allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, had asked him to pursue a deal with Iran instead of an attack, adding that further negotiations are contingent on the reopening of Hormuz. Before the war, the waterway carried about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Still, there’s little clarity on those negotiations and no sign the Islamic Republic is willing to allow vessels free passage through the strait.

“The market read for crude oil is overly bearish, as to be expected with the asymmetric downside sensitivity to headlines, but we anticipate the market may be quickly disappointed when the flows don’t surge like they did post MoU,” said Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.

The US benchmark swung through a roughly $26 range last month as fighting resumed following the collapse of a June truce and memorandum of understanding, and the conflict expanded to the Red Sea. The US pulled back on daily strikes in late July.

Hormuz is again all but shut. While some ships are continuing to cross the strait, there’s still a significant threat to vessels in the waterway. UK Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker off Oman reported an explosion in close proximity on Sunday, highlighting the persistent risks for shipping.

European natural gas also pared losses after falling as much as 6.3% in early trading.

Meanwhile, Gulf producers continue to seek alternative export routes. Turkey and Iraq agreed to extend an expired oil pipeline deal by one year that would be able to export as much as 750,000 barrels a day, according to Iraq’s Oil Ministry.

Elsewhere, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said the Caspian Pipeline Consortium continues to operate with oil intake at 100,000 tons a day from Aug. 1 after a temporary suspension on Friday. While CPC will allow vessels to load from its terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, the pace of exports will also depend on whether tankers are willing to risk the journey.

A series of drone attacks on tankers loading at or near the facility has disrupted flows from the CPC, the main export route for Kazakh crude that’s widely used by European refineries.

WTI for September delivery declined 5.9% to $79.57 a barrel at 11:26 a.m. in New York. Brent for October settlement fell 4.6% to $83.91 a barrel.

To get Bloomberg’s Energy Daily newsletter in your inbox, click here.

### [E1504] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-08-03 17:59 UTC | 盘中
特朗普：应伊朗的要求与伊朗进行对话的，今明两天就会知晓谈判进展
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3144304
美国总统特朗普宣称，与伊朗的谈判正在进行中。 当伊朗在对话时候，他们不愿意这样说。 伊朗希望讨论霍尔木兹海峡问题，也希望讨论去核化问题。 美国是应伊朗的要求与伊朗进行对话的。 这是伊朗的最后机会。 讨论到明天（周二）这段时间恢复海峡的开放。 与伊朗对话的第一阶段关乎重新开放海峡，第二阶段讨论去核化。 去核化磋商将持续“一段时间”。 “你们今天、或明天就会知道伊朗谈判进展。” 标普500指数涨幅扩大至1.5%，道指涨595点、涨幅维持在1.1%，纳指涨2.2%，半导体指数涨超1.3%。

特朗普：应伊朗的要求与伊朗进行对话的，今明两天就会知晓谈判进展

### [E1718] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-08-03 19:00 UTC | 盘中
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 02:30–03:00
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-04 02:30–03:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 210 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[02:30] Get that done because that's the Pandora's box that was opened after the war started, the war started by Israel and the United States that was not a problem before.
[02:30] This war and is now for the world economy and certainly for the United States, Yeah, an important reminder, you know, as of February 20.
[02:30] Sth of this year that the stit was open so it would be just going back to what it was before the war.
[02:30] It's just, you know, certainly the president wants that status quo to be returned, but the Iranians have shown really no.
[02:30] Willness to go back to the status quoJeff, there's been a lot of polling that has been done as of late in the last week or so.
[02:30] And people, the Americans, when it comes to the war, they say 31% say the Iran war is not worth it.
[02:30] are worth it, excuse me, 31% say it's worth it, 66% say it's not worth it, this is the Quie.
[02:30] Poll, in terms of job approval, 32% approve of the president's job%.
[02:31] Disapprove of it polls or pollss polls be wrong, I don't know as someone who covers the white.
[02:31] houseuse and the president inside and out does he look at these things does he care about these things Yeah for sure he does and I think one reason or one.
[02:31] example of how closely he's following it as he sent out some alternative polls today on his truth social.
[02:31] Account so he he wants people to think A that they're better than they are and B that he's not paying attention.
[02:31] To these other public ones, he absolutely is, and I would say also as a long time political reporter that speaking to people in.
[02:31] All of these orbits, the Democratic side, the Republican side, regardless of who's in power in the White House, they keep a close eye on these polls.
[02:31] it translates into they've translated into votes and if the approval ratings are high.
[02:32] which suggest that the midterms are going to go better for his party, the fact that his approval ratings are low is almost certainly going to hurt his party if it doesn't get a turnaround between now.
[02:32] I'm glad you brought up midterms because the President also made some comments about what he calls the Save America Act.
[02:32] facingacing some challenges in Congress right now, if Congress doesn't vote on this before the mid.
[02:32] Is this bill dead probably because, I mean, they could start it up again next year, but a bill has to become.
[02:32] Has to be go through the legislative process within the two year legislative calendar, so that's going to reset in January if they don't get it done now.
[02:32] There's there's very little sign that it's going to get done now they may or they are trying to bring in some of the aspects of the Sa America Act into the budget.
[02:32] But President Trump wants more and he just doesn't have the votes, certainly not from Democrats and also not from enough Republicans.
[02:32] And that's been a thorn in his side for weeks now, maybe silly question, is he losing any of his power like it does feel.
[02:33] Like he still holds so much sway when it comes to what gets done or doesn't get done, Jeff, but I think about.
[02:33] I don't know, is he losing some of his ability to really get certain things done, I don't think that's a silly question.
[02:33] And I think that's something we're all watching and some of the signs of that or some of the signs of whether maybe is.
[02:33] Hours eroding have come from the senators who are willing to stand up to him, prettyty important to note that.
[02:33] are senators who are on their way out, and the president has emphasized that that they are lawmakers who he did not endorse and therefore.
[02:33] He thinks that they're upset with him for that and they're going to have to retire in January, but even so, they have Cor and andtus, for example.
[02:33] have pushed this issue of the fund as a key negotiating tool over Todd Bland.
[02:34] And clearly also a thorn in the president's side because he said just now that he wasn't involved in whatever.
[02:34] Hod Blanche agreed how about, can I throw in Janine Piro like her like backing off the?
[02:34] he just said she made a mistake she made a mistake, but she did it no and I feel like if you gone six, seven months ago, I don't know if that would have.
[02:34] I don't know, yeah, I mean, thats that's such a great minor, but it's just it's minor, but it's it's sort of like destroy.
[02:34] Well, all of the East W without giving permission and then talking about it later, it's a metaphor for how things are going.
[02:34] hi right now, and it's certainly got to be fascinating in her office because there is a difference between saying something that's not true.
[02:34] And pushing that story on truth social or in the Oval Office or wherever the president and some of his cabinet members are talking about the reflection.
[02:34] There's an entirely different setting when you have to say it in court.
[02:35] You know the president' is going to react no doubt and he has, but she couldn't prove it and in fact what she could show.
[02:35] Is that there were problems with the installation and that's the opposite of what he wants to hear, but that certainly appears to be the.
[02:35] Hon truth, Jeff, one thing that is, I think of interest to our audience is President's comments about oil companies.
[02:35] Just in the last few minutes, he said that oil firms better cut the retail price, he said that Exxon and Chevron are making too much money, both of those.
[02:35] Companies actually extended their declines after the president made those comments, Exxon Mobil's down about four tons of 1% Chevron down about 1.9.
[02:35] Can you just explain sort of the tension between a traditional, I don't want to say you use the word traditional, but the idea of a free.
[02:35] Market and the close relationship that historically many Republican presidents have had with oil companies, indeed, the close relationship that we've.
[02:36] all those CEOs at the White House, especially in the wake of what happened in Venezuela, but the President now making comments like this and what the repercussions of,
[02:36] That could be sure, so a couple of things number one him saying that puts him in almost in democratic territory because.
[02:36] You could certainly imagine hearing a President Joe Biden or a President Barack Obama going out and criticizing oil companies.
[02:36] Over prices, so there's a populist aspect to that I also think it's you know it's instructive to remember that president Trump sees the world.
[02:36] Politically, business wise, diplomatically through a lens of his own making that's related to him.
[02:36] Now, it's bad for him politically that gasoline prices are so high, so he would like to see those come down, surely to help America.
[02:36] But also to help his political prospects and the political prospects of his party, but it is certainly not in.
[02:36] And as many other things are not with traditional Republican orthothdoxy in terms of business and the relationship with business again.
[02:37] As we like to say, it's a shame nothing's going on when it comes to DC I just want to point out CNN reporting that the President is weighing.
[02:37] Moving toineine Piro over the reflecting pool, so this just citing some sources on the present thinking about it, so there we go.
[02:37] Thank you so much my pleasure, we were looking forward to this so great to have you herecha all right, talk to you soon Jeff mason, Bberg news White House in Washington correspondent.😊
[02:37] here inHey coming up next we're going to talk to Torsten Slock, he's been looking at the 6040 portfolio. he says it's no longer working.
[02:37] We'll get into his thinking about that first up though let's get a check of the day's trade and top business stories Charlie Pett is standing by in the studio hey Charlie I thank you very much Tim and Carol.
[02:37] Indeed, S&P 500 index right now, very close to highs, but look at the Dow Dow industrials up 650 points now.
[02:37] 53,134 potentially could see a record close on the Dow up now by 1.2% weve got.
[02:38] St up2.1% and has 100 index up 1.7% the Bloberg Mag7 index.
[02:38] 3.8% big tech names rallying, the socks, the Philadelphia semiconductorduct stock index up 8 tenths of1%.
[02:38] With the two year, 4.25%, the 10 year, 4.68% and the 30 year 5.23.
[02:38] 🎼Gold flat on the day right now,4037 the out west Texas Enor crew sell off crude major story today WTI.
[02:38] Down 5%, 8032 of barreld Bt, 8374 down 4.8% coming up after the close of trading.
[02:38] I'm Charlie Plet caryn Tim that is a Bomberg business all right got it Charlie thank you so much Charlie there with an update on the markets let's get right to.
[02:38] Our next guest out was some research, always a must read, it's always on the Bloomberg, everybody talking about it on Wall Street.
[02:38] About it a lot in the newsroom, Totens is with us, chief economist and partnerhood Apollo Global Management here in studio, good to have you here.
[02:39] so many different places to start, and I do want to talk about the 6040 portfolio President Trump, we watched and what he's doing with policy.
[02:39] We talk about AI a lot, we're going to get into that, you know, the Fed, do you just look at it all or like first thing in the morning, what do you do you want to check?
[02:39] What's going on in Asia like is it everything that is a priority right now Yeah no absolutely I mean, the agenda is certainly first of rh.
[02:39] Very importantOur ships going to sail through the Strra of Hamus or not how much oil is going to get delivered. that continues to be a very important risk, because if we do run.
[02:39] In tanks, especially in Europe, then we may run out of marine fuel, of jet fuel, fertilizer of helium.
[02:39] As this creates a jump risk in prices, especially for energy that's still a risk, even though that like back and forth, it looks like markets look through it.
[02:39] Carol, because this hasn't been an issue for a while because we've been so busy with the Fed and with AI, but in the background this continues unfortunately to still be very, very important.😊
[02:40] Because it literally is the case that we could have some tanks catch to critical levels. Yes, there's still, of course, fuel running in the pipes and the systems have to.
[02:40] But we don't know what that level of critical level of inventory is. And the risk is, when we don't have 20% of oil thats.
[02:40] Itposed to be delivered every day coming through the Strai of Ham moose or Ba Mante. The consequence is that we still have this in the background as, again, jump risk in oil.
[02:40] In particular and also for agricultural prices. So, yes, this just adds to the other things about Was's press conference and AI and all the other things we can talk about.😊
[02:40] But one more on one oil in Iran before we get there, it does seem like the oil market, and we just heard from Jeff Mason who said, we have no idea what the talks are happening between.
[02:40] The US and Iran right now to end this conflict, oil prices that are down 5%, whether we're talking to Bre or Brent or WTI, is the oil market getting this right?
[02:40] Or is it getting it wrong Well, it's quite remarkable that oil price have been through this roller coast of going up and down and seems to have a much stronger opinion about whether a deal is had?
[02:40] notWhereas people in ratess and in the economics and in the region, they have a much more nuanced view of, hey, if there is no sign of it.
[02:41] And if we have a deal, then there is a big of risk that we could eventually run dry. So that's why the clock is truly ticking on oil inventories. and the more that tick.
[02:41] The highest is of risk, remember, there is now two months ago that the head of the EIA said that we were six weeks away from Europe running out of jet fuel.
[02:41] Now we thankfully have not reached that point quite yet, but it's very clear that we literally have zero ships if I look on my Bloomberg screen E.😊
[02:41] Most serious ships coming through this Strt of Hammus and Ba Man at the moment. that is still a very significant risk in the background. It's difficult to quantify who knows.
[02:41] If this is tomorrow, next week or next month, but if the Iranians continue with this onto the midterm election, I feel very confident that then we will have the rest.
[02:41] That we could see inventory. remember, Nice Air ran out of jet fuel three weeks ago, so this is also not just an academic exercise is something that.
[02:41] It's truly happening not only for jet fuel, also for marine fuel, other types of fuel, and of course, also agricultural products such as fertilizer and helium.
[02:42] Fed chair Kevin Walsh was so general broad macro, and I want to play something for you because double on capital's Jeff Goodlock called.
[02:42] Out Michael McKee on X noting that Mike's question at last week's FOMC press conference he wrote, the greatest financial media moment, year to date was Michael McKee.
[02:42] Teeing up and then delivering what are you waiting for to Fed She washsh, listen up everybody, here's what Mike had to say at the FOM.
[02:42] conference last week what vetting did you do of the people that you appointed to the task forces in particular, given Mark andreson?
[02:42] Substantial political spending $25 million in just the past year to back candidates who oppose stricter AI regulation.
[02:42] How can the public be confident that a committee he co chairs will provide an independent assessment of AI's economic effects?
[02:42] And one aligned with the interests of the AI industry Yeah, so I selected 15.
[02:42] Incredible subject market, subject matter experts to tackle five of the most important questions.
[02:43] And if we get the answers right, we're going to do a far better job in delivering and if we get the answers wrong, we have a problem the comfort that I.
[02:43] you and your listeners is all right, we're going to get out of that, that was actually not the sound bite we wanted to play, but that was Kevin Warsh with Michael.
[02:43] But Mike was basically saying what are you waiting for and Torston, you obviously watched it, he just was so general macro.
[02:43] What did you take away from Kevin Walsh last week I think the market reaction speaks to Mike's question name and what are we waiting for why didn't you just hike rates?
[02:43] They didn't do that and the market reaction with a very, very steep curve of course, said you should have high rates at least now we're beginning to ask questions in Mark.
[02:43] It's about, well, do you have the commitment to raise rates, do you really think inflation will be 2%, and if you think so, what is the route to getting?
[02:43] To2%, are you going to use the balance sheet, Are you going to use the F rate, Are you going to use tighter financial conditions. He should be able to answer, shouldn't.
[02:44] alk about tighter financial conditions, which may have added a bit to the confusion because it becomes really, really important for the yield curve, whether you pick to do this.
[02:44] stronger balance sheet, meaning lower balance sheet, whether you do this through higher rates or whether you do this through tighter financial conditions, because if you trade rates.
[02:44] Of course, we'll have a strong view on how is it that the F is going to achieve the 2% goal, and you could say in theory that we want to do this through a smaller balance sheet.
[02:44] But we didn't even get an answer to that, so that's why people are not beginning to wonder, okay, there's more volatility in markets, we have a steeper curve, more questions being asked.
[02:44] So therefore, if they don't hike in September, of course, then the market will just ask even more questions about what is now the plan, can you do it through a fewer meeting?
[02:44] Well, that's one way, of course, of doing it, but that doesn't change the fact that the man referring to the New York Times reporting on Friday night that I saw that.
[02:44] I could have fewer meetings, Yeah, absolutely, and I think that that, of course, would change the game quite significantly if they were to go to the legally mandateed only four meetings a year.
[02:44] It's very clear still that even that debate, the market will still try to price the F at every single moment in time, and that basically means that we have a situation.
[02:45] The market constantly needs to think about how might the fit interpret the incoming data Well, I guess what does it mean that we hear more from the.
[02:45] Fed speakers and their sort of job owning between meetings, I'm just trying to understand a world we live in with less communication if you want them.
[02:45] To serve as sort of the benchmark for the Fed, I don't know, I think the toothpaste will come out.
[02:45] One way or the other, other FMC members will begin to have speeches where they say, here's what I think, and normally some of these FMC members.
[02:45] don't get a lot of weight as such from financial markets. but today they are given a lot of weight because if the chair has decided to say, I'm not giving.
[02:45] not even forward guidance, but also not framework guidance, then of course others who are willing to talk about, not even framework guidance and forward guidance, but just give a description of the data.
[02:45] And talk about how do they think their data could be evolving. I think that is going to get a lot more weight, which is why when Beth Hamock put something on Li.
[02:46] On a Sunday afternoon, this suddenly gets people sent this to me all Sunday evening and say, what do you think, How should we think about this, and this suddenly becomes really, really important.
[02:46] Margaret is constantly trying to figure out what is the trajectory of where rates are going Right exactly I want to get to the 6040.
[02:46] Although that we've talked about forever, right, being broken, why so and you have an AI aspect to that Yeah so the really important aspect of this.
[02:46] Quusion is the following, the 6040 portfolio was really truly a stroke of genius when it was invented because remember if my stocks go up.
[02:46] Normally my bun prices go down, that means interest rates go down, and that means I make money on stocks and I may lose something on my buns vice versa.😡
[02:46] The stock market goes down, then prices go up and other yields go down, and that means of course that I make money either on buns or make money in equities somewhat.
[02:46] Some more randomly then picked 6040, this was the weights and it made sense in an environment where the business cycle goes up and down, sometimes I should have him.
[02:46] Sometimes just we're having a rate. So if that's the case, this was a very good way to balance your portfolio. The problem today is the following.
[02:47] Today's stocks are really driven by AI, is not driven so much by the business cycle and is highly concentrated with the 10 biggest stocks making up 40%.
[02:47] of the basket, so that means that the AI story has become absolutely critical as a driver of the stock market and the fiscal situation has become a very.
[02:47] Important driver of thebt market, because now we have significant fiscal problems. We have the fact that rates have been going up. The term premium has been going up and therefore.
[02:47] That's also not necessarily a function of what the business cycle is doing, So suddenly you have two new factors that have been a key driver of equities, namely AI and a key driver.
[02:47] mark is name me Fi, which are not a function of whether the economy goes up and down. And therefore, we may no longer have the property that you make money on.
[02:47] One side and lose on the other, but you may actually lose on both we've often said, and we've said that when you see the markets like both stocks and ponds go.
[02:47] Up in tandem, which is just unusual right to see that in any given trade, Having said that big tech Torsten has been disproportate.
[02:48] Moving market, even before we started talking a lot about AI is there something different as AI, though, that trade on steroids and even.
[02:48] Further disconnecting us from the business cycle. Yeah, let's think about that exactly at this moment in the 640 context, because AI, of course, is highly concentrated.
[02:48] So AI better work out. Otherwise equities will not go up. So if at the same time, AI companies are also issuing a lot of debt that takes.
[02:48] neyOut of Treasury markets in to buy hyperscale debt. So in that sense, even the bond side of my portfolio is also being impacted. And by the way, is also now.
[02:48] So suddenly I have AI everywhere in equities, I also have AI in investment great credit, and by the way, venture capital 87% is also AI.
[02:48] My whole pie chart is actually OAI, so suddenly there's one factor driving everything I'm doing and if there's one thing we learn in finance is's factor on investing.
[02:48] driving all returns at the moment, namely AI is inequities, AI is in everyone in public credit, and AI is also in ventureor capital, so the best for accommodation today is.
[02:48] Not in AI because that gets you away from this one factor that is driving markets at the moment. You did say in your note, the real risk emerges at the AI.
[02:49] Tradeverses or markets become more worried about government deficits in either scenario both stocks and bonds would face pressure simultaneously leaving investors with no hedge, which is what you basically.
[02:49] He said what happened with situational awareness, the hedge fund, is that a sign to you of the AI trade reverse?
[02:49] Like what's your read on that and I have no idea if Apollo was interested in the assets, of share what you'd like but that?
[02:49] The of a little canary in the Well what was of course very unusual about this is that it didn't take much decline in the AI trade and certainly there was a blow up.
[02:49] It was a bit of a coincidence that this was the specific fund you mentioned, but it's very clear that the AI trade reversing, there's a lot of level ET.
[02:49] At the moment, there's a lot of people that are having levered bets on AI can only go one way, name you up, and we're now finding out with the underperforms of growth.
[02:49] The last four months is very, very substantial value has been outperforming. That's exactly telling you that in a 6040 framework, growth is just.
[02:50] Being more risky, simply because the AI story is beginning to also become more vulnerable, especially with this debate about open source.
[02:50] to close source models, if the Chinese models come and dominate, that will then of course, take market share from the closed source models, and the question is how big.
[02:50] theThe narrative has changed a lot from where we were three years ago, Trsten S, thank you so much and thanks for hanging around.
[02:50] Want to talk with you he's chief economist at Apollo global management joining us here in studio Hey we're going to be talking in just a minute all about hospital.
[02:50] And what's happening with hospitality first though, a check of the day's trade and top business stories because Charlie Keller is stand by with enough to, hey, Charlie.
[02:50] Hello there, we do have the Dow, the S&P Nsdaq all advancing marriott chairs right now that they are tumbling by six and a half percent.
[02:50] After earnings, but bottom line here a lot of green on the screen with the S& at 7605 of one. a half percent down industrial.
[02:50] could see a record close up 664 points on the dow that is a gain of 1.3%&.
[02:51] And Nasdaq right now up 2.2% the Nasdaq 100 index up 1.9%, but look at the mag7 indexberg.
[02:51] 7 index surging now by 4%2 year, 4.25%, the 10 year, 4.68%.
[02:51] 5.22% stocks are joining bonds higher cooling tensions in the Middle East, sending crude lower West Texas intermediate.
[02:51] 8052 of barrel down by 4.8% Carol and Tim, that is a bloomberg businesslash All right Charlie thanks so much hey get.
[02:51] Hospitality sector because Marriott International shares, we've seen them under some pressure after the company said that room growth for 2026 would likely come in.
[02:51] At the lower end of earlier driven by construction delays in the Middle East, Middle East, I mean, we're talking about implications of this.
[02:51] It keeps coming and making its way right all right, so we've got that stock down about 6.4% hatt was out though.
[02:52] hursYeah stock traded down the company cut its net income guidance for the full year, the guidance missed the average analyst estimates S& composites,s.
[02:52] Cre lines index up about 3% here to date. so underperforming the broader sector. All right, so let's get to it. Let's talk about the group. Lizzie Dove is with us US gaming lodging.
[02:52] Leis your research analyst over at Goldman Sachs joining us here in studio, welcome, welcome, its we love this area, it tells you yes.
[02:52] The consumer, but it also tells you about business travel and so on and so forth, walk us through first of all, the earnings that we've gotten and what it's telling us so far.
[02:52] Well, what's really interesting is there's a bifurcation. We are in one of actually the best travel environments for the US that we've seen in a long time.😊
[02:52] US Re power is up 5%, now the primary per room, revenue per room, that's basically they're in the key match of pricing and occupancy.😊
[02:52] Now what's the problem or the offset to that is two things, one unit growth is coming in a little bit lighter so that's new hotel rooms.😊
[02:52] And two, as you said, the Middle East is an offset there, the pressure there has been higher than expected, and that's impacting not just overall.
[02:53] area but also rooms growth and construction Does that become at a certain point if this conflict goes on for so long, like I don't want to say permanent.
[02:53] Nothing is permanent, but something that like is the next thing to permanent like companies are saying, okay, we're actually abandoning.
[02:53] We're not there yet. I think we're a long way off from that. And the one thing that I think is good and maybe be misunderstood by the market is take Marriott, for example.
[02:53] The Middle East is only about 7% of their pipeline, and that's all of the Middle East and there's a bifurcation in the Middle East you see trends in Dubai that have been,😊
[02:53] Down 50%,60% on pricing, but areas like Saudi Arabia that are seeing 30% positive pricing. So there's a bifur even in that middle East.
[02:53] So even if we do see some structural erosion there there's enough power within it and there's a small enough segment for the hotel's companies, that's a bigger share than I would have thought.😊
[02:53] Really, that's but I guess so is that where the growth is too It is where a lot of the growth is. I think the point is that we are now kind of in faith.
[02:54] Of lodging growthWe've had a lot of growth in the US. There's still more to go in the US. but the real next big growth opportunity.
[02:54] It's Middle East, it's Europe, it's. It's X for the most part. There's a story on the Bloberg. the post pandemic travel boom is starting to lose stream high.
[02:54] Prices that were in ir and persistent flying headaches deterred travelers from booking international trips for this year's peak summer season now everybody in the last two years.
[02:54] Was going to Italy or I feel like Japan, are you seeing this also a little bit, a little bit, but it's at the margin.
[02:54] A bigger kind of question or debate that investors are having is it's almost the travel environment for the U and Europe to be fair so far has been so good.😊
[02:54] The World Cup, for example, that added about 100 basis points to pricing just to US alone, and it's what's so good today makes for.
[02:54] Tough comp for tomorrow, and so investors are pre tradinging that deceleration now that some of these idiosyncratic tailwinds are now starting to fade.😊
[02:54] And some of the concerns that you mentioned as well come into the picture. There were concerns in the last jobs report that we got about hospitality because there was this idea that the were.
[02:55] Cup would actually bring workers into those jobs. Do we see on Friday that that actually came true You know, yes and no, yes and no.
[02:55] I think what we're seeing in these reports and not just from the jobs report, but also just generally across kind of consumer dashboards is again, there's this bifurcation where you.😊
[02:55] Have this K shaped economy where the hiring end keeps doing better. That hasn't gone away. I think people thought it would broaden out more this year to the third and fourth.
[02:55] Qus, we haven't seen it. And that's why you do see people like Mart on the pricing side doing a little bit better than versus some of the windhams and choices of the world.😊
[02:55] What are we seeing business versus kind of we regular people I think we travel more for business.
[02:55] regular people actually that's a really good point. Yeah well that's a blend, you know, the two have become very intermingled, as you mentioned, both.
[02:55] Family coming along They're a pretty quick trip some. Yeah, both are growing, both are growing. and that's actually something that's interesting is for the first time we.😊
[02:56] We reallyally have seen quite a nice low single digit plus kind of growth in business travel this year, so that's broadened out hotel demand a little.😊
[02:56] A bit more into that midweek, but Les really been the biggest leading indicatorat. You also cover the cruise lines.
[02:56] big cruise guy but those companies getting hit with higher fuel prices too it's a good measure of the consumer and a certain type.
[02:56] Consumer, depending on which cruise line we're talking about, broadly how is that industry doing You know, it's interesting, it's been a tough 2026 visual sure, I think firstly,'s so surprised.
[02:56] You go back to last year and I feel like everybody was the charts they're booking for summer already visibility bookings way out, what happened?
[02:56] So firstly, fuel to your point, there's not much that they can do to offset that they haven't done surcharges like the airlines have. So that's just the cost that they have to work.
[02:56] Secondly, there is a perceived safety impact for U travelers going out to Europe on a cruise. They just don't want to be on the water in the Mediterranean.
[02:56] Even though it is far from the Middle East. So that's what we've seen here. but it's kind of the opposite of lodging where you have kind of trough.
[02:57] Or weakening trends this year that now people are thinking could make for a really great 2027 for cruise. We don't have a crystal ball on the Middle East conflict.😊
[02:57] But to the extent that we see some kind of resolution there long term, it could set up for a really, really strong recovery on cruises and that's my view people who like to cruise there.😊
[02:57] Like to cruise and they go back absolutely a second, third, fourth time, bring the family, bring the grandparents like they just do it this was fun come back.
[02:57] Please, we would love it, Lizzie is US gaming lodging and Le research analyst over at Goldman Sachs, that's going to do it for this first hour of Bloomberg Business Week.
[02:57] 🎼Da Tim and I continuing on radio the clothes coming your way on TV bringing the latest geopolitical news whenever and where.
[02:57] 🎼I'm David Gar uni inivia and this is.
[02:57] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this is the.

### [E2315] 华尔街见闻快讯 | 2026-08-03 20:22 UTC | 收盘后
美股大类资产类ETF多数收涨，纳指ETF、小盘股指ETF涨超1.7%，布油基金跌5%
URL: https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3144355
周一（8月3日），纳指100 ETF收涨1.76%，罗素2000指数ETF涨1.72%，巴克莱美国可转债ETF、日元做多至少涨1.46%，标普500 ETF、道指ETF、农产品基金至少涨1.02%，新兴市场ETF、美国国债20+年ETF至少涨0.33%，大豆基金涨0.32%，黄金ETF涨0.05%。 做多美元指数收平，欧元做多跌0.2%，恐慌指数做多跌0.8%，美国布伦特油价基金跌5.06%。

美股大类资产类ETF多数收涨，纳指ETF、小盘股指ETF涨超1.7%，布油基金跌5%

### [E2347] Reuters | 2026-08-03 20:25 UTC | 收盘后
Six Saudi tankers turn away from Gulf of Aden, ship-tracking data shows http://reut.rs/4wxNniF http://reut.rs/4wxNniF
URL: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2084375024702484707
Six Saudi tankers turn away from Gulf of Aden, ship-tracking data shows http://reut.rs/4wxNniF http://reut.rs/4wxNniF

### [E0756] Bloomberg | 2026-08-03 15:11 UTC | 盘中
Saudi Oil Shipments Slip in July as Red Sea, Hormuz Risks Grow
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-03/saudi-oil-shipments-slip-in-july-as-red-sea-hormuz-risks-grow
Saudi Arabia’s observed crude oil exports edged lower in July as the kingdom’s shipments were held back by threats to vessel traffic in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.

Exports totaled 4.19 million barrels a day, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, 460,000 barrels a day lower than the previous month. When accounting for cargoes loaded onto ships that are stuck inside the Persian Gulf, exports are around 230,000 barrels a day lower.

Most of Saudi Arabia’s crude exports are now being shipped to the western port of Yanbu in the Red Sea, but that route came under threat in July as Yemen’s Houthi militant group said it would blockade Saudi ports and launched attacks on vessels linked to Riyadh. The Houthis also claimed to target Saudi oil facilities with missiles and drones at times last month.

Tracking shipments from Yanbu has become harder as a result, with more vessels sailing to the port without their transponders turned on. While some vessels temporarily diverted away from the port, others continue to load. Over the weekend, five very large crude carriers were seen at Yanbu in satellite images taken by the European Union’s Sentinel 2, a possible sign that loadings have picked up.

The breakdown of an interim peace deal between the US and Iran also led to renewed attacks on ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz last month.

That meant only a trickle of the kingdom’s volumes made their way out using the waterway after loading at ports inside the gulf. Several ships that entered the area and loaded in early July were stuck after the interim peace deal collapsed.

Saudi officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the figures.

### [E1431] First Squawk | 2026-08-03 17:32 UTC | 盘中
U.S. OFFICIALS TELL CBS NEWS THAT DESPITE TRUMP'S COMMENTS THAT NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN ARE SET TO BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE ARE NO 'NEW' OR NOVEL NEGOTIATIONS PLANNED — JUST THE ONGOING TALKS BETWEEN MIDDLE EAST ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF, JAR
URL: https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2084331469569462486
U.S. OFFICIALS TELL CBS NEWS THAT DESPITE TRUMP'S COMMENTS THAT NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN ARE SET TO BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE ARE NO 'NEW' OR NOVEL NEGOTIATIONS PLANNED — JUST THE ONGOING TALKS BETWEEN MIDDLE EAST ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF, JARED KUSHNER AND THE U.S. NEGOTIATING TEAM WITH THE IRANIAN TEAM, THROUGH MEDIATORS.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。