美国拟限制进口中国数据中心光通信组件，光模块产业链美股已异动但本条为已推卡催化复盘

# 美股盘后催化 1/11: 美国拟禁部分中国数据中心光通信组件，光模块与网络链条获政策替代溢价

- 美股会话: 2026-08-04
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 监管/政策；规划重大性: 9/10
- 映射模式: competitive
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：多段Bloomberg转述Reuters称特朗普政府正起草对部分中国数据中心组件、尤其光通信相关部件的进口禁令，市场因此买入Coherent、Lumentum、Ciena、Corning、Marvell等数据中心网络和光学相关公司。推断：若政策落地，美国AI数据中心供应链可能加速去中国化，非中国光组件、光纤、连接和网络芯片供应商受益，但中国光模块出口商面临份额和估值折价风险。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- Marvell (MRVL.US): 218.59 +12.81%
- Coherent (COHR.US): 323.73 +12.35%
- Lumentum (LITE.US): 849.47 +8.92%
- Ciena (CIEN.US): 411.13 +5.21%
- GLW.US (GLW.US): 159.89 +9.04%
- CSCO.US (CSCO.US): 121.74 +5.08%

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 中际旭创 (300308.SZ) [A/竞争替代/negative]: 若禁令覆盖中国制造或中国供应商的高速光模块，美国客户替代采购可能压低出口预期。；核验问题: 确认拟禁清单是否覆盖光模块、光引擎、光收发器或仅限特定安全敏感组件。
- Fujikura (5803.JP) [JP/供应商/positive]: 若美国客户转向非中国光纤、连接和数据中心光互联供应链，日本供应商可能获得替代需求。；核验问题: 核实其数据中心光通信产品与美国云厂商或设备商的实际供货关系。
- 联亚光电 (3081.TW) [TW/供应商/positive]: 台湾光通信上游若进入非中国替代链，可能受益于供应链重配。；核验问题: 核实其高速数据中心光模块或激光器客户是否对接美国禁令受益链。

## 必答问题

- 禁令是进口禁令、采购限制还是安全审查框架？
- 中国以外供应商是否有足够产能承接短期替代需求？
- 美国云厂商是否会因成本上升推迟部分网络升级？

## 原始证据全文（3 条）

### [E0012] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-08-04 17:00 UTC | 盘中
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 00:30–01:00
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-05 00:30–01:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 150 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[00:30] The valuation for folks like Marathon tend to be much lower. So the institutional investor market is recognizing that.
[00:30] Those Bitcoinco mining companies that have transferred over or moved into AI computing power are valued much more than the traditional guys that are.
[00:30] All we're going to end it there, but thank you so much for a great setup for us dwaberg us.
[00:30] Boston, he's a regular here for Bloomberg crypto now sticking with the financialization of AI, let's continue this discussion with Ophelia Snyder.
[00:30] Cofounder of 21 shares ophel, you heard what Dee was saying about this convergence between what were formerly crypto mining companies.
[00:30] into AI infrastructure companies, what do you think of this wholesale move, It seems like a wholesale move, at least, and how does it change to economics?
[00:30] Of a company that's doing just that. It makes sense. I think there was a moment where a lot of these companies were quite.
[00:30] Prescient in securing power contracts and securing infrastructure contracts and actually building the necessary infrastructure.
[00:31] I think the shift has made the competition for compute continue to grow, and I don't expect that to abate anytime soon.
[00:31] And there's no reason these firms that are specialized in doing it can't provide those services what if we see and I say what if but there are a lot of folks we talk.
[00:31] To say we will see Bitcoincoin go past $130,000 again at some point when that happens or if that happens, do these firms come?
[00:31] Say wait a second, we're not actually focused on AI compute now we're going back to mining Bitcoin because there's money in them chips.
[00:31] I suspect you will see both, and it likely makes these firms more robust, not less.
[00:31] Econically rationalSo being nimble is a feature at this point, I think so I think generally can they from a technical perspective?
[00:31] Switch on and off easily to like from one specialization to another my understanding and you know this is obviously.
[00:32] I'm not a Bitcoincoin miner by trade, but my understanding is it's not 100% fungible, it's more a function of.
[00:32] Our costs in infrastructure and what the best use of that is, which is not dissimilar from what you typically see around Bitcoincoin mining their moments.
[00:32] It's more or less profitable and certain locations are more or less profitable, so I expect the decision matrix to remain pretty consistent.
[00:32] Scars to tokenization because op you've said that crypto and Tradify are kind of talking past each other when it comes to tokenization and we certainly.
[00:32] SeeNo shortage of announcements of traditional finance companies getting into tokenization wells fargo today, for instance, saying it'll roll out tokenized.
[00:32] useFor commercial clients in a situation like this where you get an announcement from a wells fargo, for instance, what needs to happen behind the scene.
[00:32] m sceneces to make sure that it isn't just an announcement that kind of lands and doesn't go.
[00:32] Beyond that I mean, what needs to happen for everything to actually come into practice. So I think one of the things that's being undervalued in crypto markets today is how.
[00:33] At least some of these implementations really are these are, even though the numbers appear big to crypto, they are not big compared to what flows and.
[00:33] If I really look like and so I think you're going to continue to see a lot of interest in these projects, a lot of desire for them to expand.
[00:33] I think these implementations are critical proof points, but they don't represent a wholesale migration of infrastructure yet they're much more like.
[00:33] Baoons, then they are you know, full scale implementation What would you need to see in order to say, okay, this is no longer a test balloon we're now seeing full scale implementation.
[00:33] You would need to see a significant percentage of flow. And I think that's the piece or a significant percentage of assets right right now you're seeing.
[00:33] You know, either a few hundred million, maybe a couple of billion that pales and concerns like a lot to you know somebody, but you said in comparison.
[00:33] ToThe actual size of these balance sheets, the actual size of the total market for bank deposits compared to the total size of.
[00:34] Equities markets, I mean, those are the benchmarks so when you think about new capital markets technology, which essentially thiss varying flavors of it.
[00:34] But new capital markets technology and new payments technology and new settlements technology, you actually need that critical mass.
[00:34] That's interesting so you're seeing all these test cases and a lot of that seems to be going quite well and you speak to these institutions and they're excited about it the question then becomes okay.
[00:34] The gap between these really exciting initial trials and saying, okay, actually, yes, we're going to do it for our entire deposit base.
[00:34] And that gap is, I think what we're going to be bridging in the next few years, right to actually matter at an institutional scale is this a five year problem.
[00:34] One year problem, what's the timeline so I think I suspect it's a five year problem, maybe five to1.
[00:34] I think you need to get a critical mass going and then it kind of rolls and the role part will take a long time similar to what you.
[00:34] I would like the migration from mutual funds to ETFs, these are not small shifts when you start moving large amounts of money.
[00:35] You're still seeing people deprecate proprietary systems in favor of cloud and that's still happening right now like cloud transformation is.
[00:35] 100% complete I don't think 100% is the goal, I think it's that critical mass like once you get to more than half the market starts.
[00:35] Shift around that and so I think that inflection point is maybe five years out do you think Tradf and Tfi are overhyping tokenization here?
[00:35] No, not in terms of what it can do, but in terms of what it's going to take to go from these initial proof points to full scale deployment.
[00:35] requiresres a lot of middleware, there's a lot of connectivity that goes into that, whether it's updates to risk models to now take into account the possibility of being.
[00:35] Margin called on a Saturday or your accounting principles and how your core books and records actually capture.
[00:35] These transactions, none of that infrastructure is entirely controlled by any of these financial institutions they buy some.
[00:36] Some it's brought together in a variety of different ways kind of a hodgepodge it is, and that takes a very long time to.
[00:36] Mig grade and update so you do the test balloons, you see that it works, and then you start thinking about okay how do you think about updating core systems and these are.
[00:36] Critical dependencies for doing any kind of business for these firms, and so what does it take to put a new technology in a critical depend?
[00:36] pathway. and I think that's the question that we're answering now. what's required to do that. and that's really exciting. I think it's just going to take.
[00:36] A bit more work than maybe people currently realize certainly it's not encapsulated in those exciting breathless announcements about what they're doing.
[00:36] d absolutely it's great to speak with you thank you so much for joining usnyder21.
[00:36] F joining us here in New York Well coming up, we're going to talk to the head of crypto at Visa about the new stableco platforms.
[00:36] It's Bloomberg.
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[00:43] Thankss in Fintech.
[00:43] Are preparing for wider adoption of stablecos yesterday on the close, the ceo of stablecoin payments provider yellow card had a bold prediction.
[00:43] For the technology, I think when you look at international transactions within 10 years, people will not be using other.
[00:43] Forms of moving money across borders, right And even if you are using a company or anything like that to.
[00:44] Move that money across borders, they're going to be using stable coins on the back end it's just such a paradigm shift in the way that money moves across borders.
[00:44] Meanwhile, Via has unveiled its own stablecoin platform, it's designed to let financial firms issue, move and manage stablecoins.
[00:44] discuss is the head of crypto at Via Kai Sheffield, Ka, good to have you on the program. Can you just talk a little bit about the.😊
[00:44] That you were seeing before you created this product like who's it for and why Yeah, sure, So we talked to banks and financial institutions.
[00:44] all over the world, and I think at this stage, every bank needs to have a stablecoin strategy.
[00:44] So they were coming to us and really finding a challenge of where to start, what infrastructure do I need, and so we built the Vi Sablecoin platform.
[00:44] To be the single place that banks can go, to get the infrastructure to build on chain, and then to combine that with professional services.
[00:44] We have a visa consulting team that goes out and helps banks understand the market, figure out which use cases they should focus on, and then be able to execute those.
[00:45] Use cases on our infrastructure so you launched the visa stablecoin platform three weeks ago what have you seen so far, what's been the feedback that you've gotten so far?
[00:45] Yeah, I think the challenge that a lot of banks have is it's really hard to cobble together vendors.
[00:45] accross the different components of the stack, and particularly going through risk committees, partnering with a crypto startup.
[00:45] It's much easier to buy from the partners that they know and trust that they work with already, and so we're trying to go out and partner and build and invest.
[00:45] And create the best set of capabilities that we could put into one place, and then we're the place that can deliver that to the bank the most easily.
[00:45] to the visa dashboard shows adjusted sco volume hit a record 1.79 trillion in Junene, 8.8 trillion in the first.
[00:45] Of this year, much of that happened, most of that happened without visa. Why do stable coins need visa.
[00:46] Sablecoin business at Via is in an amazing spot right now, mostly with the lead that we have with stablecoin Link cards.
[00:46] Stablecos says great infrastructure, but they don't have acceptance, and so you need the ability if stable coins are going to become a form of bunny.
[00:46] Spend them at 200 million merchants across the world except these so we've seen stableco link cards growing at triple digits over the past year.
[00:46] Nly every week there are new stablecoin link card programs that are going live across our network might have seen Western Union today they just launched there.
[00:46] ableco card and so we think there's a whole generation of fintechs building on the infrastructure that still recognize the need and the value that Vi can provide.
[00:46] Connecting them back to the existing financial theco platform launched with open us, which is from the opensort.
[00:46] Not USDC, not USDT this is a new stable coin that I don't think a lot of people have heard of, USDC, by contrast.
[00:46] $70 billion in circulation, USDt has more than 180 billion. why would visa launch with a stableco that few people have heard of?
[00:47] That doesn't have a lot of market share rather than going with something that institutions already use that has a name recognition.
[00:47] Yeah, so I think it's super early for the stable Court ecosystem overall, we joined Open Standard and we're proud to work with about 100.
[00:47] 40 partners around designing a stableco that we think has economic and governance properties that can help set it up to scale.
[00:47] At the same time, we continue to support USDC and other stablecoins and we work with them across settlement, which just reached about 10.
[00:47] Billion dollars in annualized volume across our network. And so we're going to continue to support many stablecrs, but we think that there's still room.
[00:47] An opportunity for new stable coins to merge like open standard that can have the right governance properties to help them scale mentioned.
[00:47] A few weeks into this, these just a few weeks into this. What's the metric that you're going to use internally come the end of the year that says this has been a success.
[00:48] Yeah,I think today it's just the number of banks and institutions that are onboarding we have a sandbox right now.
[00:48] The the team is just overwhelmed with demand of clients coming to us, but it takes time for institutions to be able to launch these products so we've got to be able.
[00:48] So get them into the environment, help them figure out use cases and then deploy those use cases into the market over the coming year all right.
[00:48] Appreci you joining us, Kay Sheffield out there in San Francisco, he's head of crypto over at Visa the new product just launched a few weeks.
[00:48] That's it that it for bloom that's it that's all the time we have, but it's okay we'll be back next week and much more to cover as we' continued.
[00:48] tryify adopt tokenization and on chain and everything else they're now shaking hands roads are colliding they really are let's see.
[00:48] Clarity act goes by the end of the week at least that's what Summer Meringer says we'll see you again next week, this is bloomberg.
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### [E0018] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-08-04 20:00 UTC | 收盘后
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 03:30–04:00
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-05 03:30–04:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 144 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[03:30] 🎼Get your fixed.
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[03:32] Time now for our stock of the hour and we're looking at a whole basket of optical equipment makers that includes.
[03:32] corning, cisco and siena all rallying today after Reuters reported the trump administration is drafting.
[03:33] A ban on data center components imported from china bloomberg t markets correspondent norra melinda joins us right now to talk a little bit more about this.
[03:33] We're talking about some very specific components, first of all, let's start with this Reuters report, what exactly do we know about this ban or potential ban?
[03:33] so we do know that Chinaa has essentially dominated this space. We you've been seeing all this attention on AI chips but.
[03:33] We also still need to talk about the optical component that goes into it and that's how these chips are actually able to communicate with one another.
[03:33] Chinas kind of been dominating this space the U.S is of course really concerned about those national security concerns that we've been talking about in many areas, but separate to that.
[03:33] Also the ai race and us essentially trying to get ahead of china now wall street is still a little bit skeptical as to whether or not this will actually pan out.
[03:33] ing that china has been a leader in this space and it would take a lot to actually see this come to fruition but as a result we are seeing a.
[03:34] Of those us based companies rallying on the idea that they could potentially take market share from some of these chinese based companies well market share assuming they have.
[03:34] And I assume prices go up. and last time I checked prices to build out data centers are already pretty high. We were listing the companies.
[03:34] cus me so you got cornine, coherent, a couple others i'm forgetting Marll, I'm confused, do they make optical equipment?
[03:34] Well that's one I had to dig into a little bit so this one actually does not actually make optical components, but where it could potentially benefit is due to the demand.
[03:34] And for those optical components, so essentially it does supply many of the networking chips that power aI data centers.
[03:34] The way that they essentially are weaved into this rally here, so stronger demand for optical infrastructure more broadly will essentially also help.
[03:34] Marvel's broader networking efforts and capacity thereI just want to say the Chineseese embassy in the U..
[03:34] As responded to this report and urged Washington to quote, listenten to the objective and rational voices of the business communities in Bo.
[03:35] Countries and it goes on blah, blah, blah, but this does get the idea and I don't mean to be glib about it, but this idea that right now,
[03:35] We're already facing a lot of supply constraints when it comes to the components and other things needed to build out these data centers and now we're adding potentially.
[03:35] Another cost there, I know investors why the knee jerkrk reaction would be bid these stocks up, but what confidence do they have that this?
[03:35] Will get bought at some point, there's got to be a price ceiling that the potential customers are just saying you know, this just isn't worth it well that's the question because' a.
[03:35] Push and pull we've been talking so much about affordability and whether or not these companies should be taking on the amount of debt, the amount of cash it's needed to.
[03:35] See the AI build out into fruition, but i mean, we have also seen nvidia making a bet on us they did actually invest about $2 billion.
[03:35] In lument and another name in the space, so maybe if nvidia is backing it co signing it, it also gives investors on wall street.
[03:36] Some sort of hope that this is something that is worth betting on if you think about the idea of how you can really squeeze out all that you can get out of this A.
[03:36] I NVdia cosing a lot of things the back just before you came on the air, we were talking about apparently now SpaceX and NVdia have a partnership.
[03:36] I just, I mean, not to get too off topic here, but we are going to hear from SpaceX later tonight, which depend on who you believe is either a rocket company or an AI.
[03:36] CompanyI think Ellon Musk would say we're basically an AI company and at some point we'll have our data centers out in orbit is there a sense that investors?
[03:36] Are still willing to embrace the AI trade wholesale, or are we at this stage now where it really is just everyone's just parsing it and picking and choosing.
[03:36] Well, we are seeing investors being really choosy specifically when they're thinking about what areas of tech that they want to invest in, it feels like every single day we're getting a bit of whiplash.
[03:36] When we're seeing a rotation out of tech and then also just a into some of these more individual sectors within the tech space, but I mean SpaceX of course is going.
[03:36] To be one of those earnings reports that everyone passes very, very carefully given the fact that this was the biggest IPpo of the year, this is their first ever.
[03:37] Quarterly earnings report but also the stock has really been on a roller coaster ever since it IPpoed so there's a lot of things that investors will be.
[03:37] Digging into when we take a look at this report that comes out later this afternoon and we'll be taking into that here right here on the close right here on bloomer.
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[03:41] SpaceX.
[03:41] In our view sort of has almost a bit of an identity crisis, if you think about it, they have so many different parts of the business.
[03:41] And for us, the crown jewel is really the launch piece of the business without the bottleneck rocket capability.
[03:41] Difficult to think of the connectivity business being available, the AI orbital data centers wouldn't even.
[03:41] Be a topic of discussions without it and then when we think about valuing a business such as this, you have the piece that we call the no.
[03:42] unknown a lot of focus on the various sub components of the SpaceX business and how it all gets.
[03:42] Together ju z over at moff at natheson yesterday making that point as we await their earnings from what was the largest IP.
[03:42] Of the year and more importantly, less about the earnings and more about how elon musk is going to communicate his vision for this company.
[03:42] With stock trading below its 135 IP price as for the rest of the market we are setting up for record highs for the dow Jones.
[03:42] Industrial average and more importantly, for the s& 57748 n change up about 2% right now, this will be the first record.
[03:42] For the S&P since june 2nd, a decent bid coming into SpaceX heading into those earnings but a big part of the reason why.
[03:42] You're seeing some of the optimism around the broader market, it's sort of threefold one, of course, it is some of the earnings that we've gotten that have provided a big boost to.
[03:42] Sentiment, but also this downdrift that we continue to see in oil prices NmX crude below 76 bucks a barrel and that is putting downward.
[03:43] I sure on yields as well right now your 30 year yield camped out just under 5.2%.
[03:43] Let's bring in john beltton, portfolio manager and managing director for growth portfolios at the be funds and john I do want to talk a little bit about some of the earnings.
[03:43] We've gotten so far and to kind of put them into context as to where we stand with regards to sentiment around the AI trade and.
[03:43] Big tech trade it seems at least as of late, the bigger beneficiaries in this market have been the hyperscalers or at least some of the hyperscale.
[03:43] Who have kind of shown some degree of proof of life that yeah, there is indeed a return up ahead for all of this capex investment.
[03:43] Yeah, and I think that's what you've been seeing kind of propelling the market the last couple days to your earlier comments.
[03:43] Yes, there's been some potentially positive news yet again in the Middle East, subject to change, but what's really changed.
[03:44] Over the last couple days for the tech trade in the tech tape has been hyperscalear earnings from Microsoft from Amazon and I think.
[03:44] From Meta as well, I've been really positive on a number of fronts and you know those bellwethers, I think, all the doubt that existed.
[03:44] Kind of the AI capex cycle, at least for now, I think the markets become more comfortable with things so how are you kind of vu things?
[03:44] Right now, jo, sort of when you look at sort of what the potential ROi might be on that capex spend for something that maybe you hold in your funds.
[03:44] Are we looking at it too narrow, is it just simply okay when it shows up in the bottom line on eps in some way or in margin expansion or is there some newance?
[03:44] maybe folks should be looking to I mean, I think every company here is different right, I think you've got companies like meta.
[03:44] AndAlphabet, where AI infrastructure is clearly helping accelerate their core advertising businesses.
[03:44] For those companies, this is a story of revenue acceleration and under that margin expansion, and it's really been earning.
[03:45] Acc that this AI infrastructure has been driving so you can look on a backward looking basis and just calculate what's the ROI.
[03:45] He've been for these businesses over the last couple years and it's very, very positive news, I think looking forward is really what the mark.
[03:45] And is starting to question, given the size of the Capex expert aspirations over the next couple of years, are they going to be generating?
[03:45] Similar returns moving forward as they've generated over the last couple of years i'm curious how you look at a company like SpaceX.
[03:45] You know, there's been obviously a lot of hay made about it multiple 400 plus times forward earning.
[03:45] 26 times sales, know, i understand there is sort of this kind of elon musk lever idea.
[03:45] A lot of people believe he'll pull a rabbit out of his hat one way or the other and make good on some of these promises, but when they report tonight,
[03:46] Are we looking at this as a space launch company, as an AI company, as something in between what?
[03:46] It's a unique company, so I don't think it has to fit any sort of predefined definition that you know you think of.
[03:46] For a different company, it's a totally unique company. I think when I think about Spacex, I think there's sort of two.
[03:46] Relatively mature businesses as things stand today are two businesses where you at least know what they are, the the launch business and the kind of.
[03:46] business or starlink and I think you can kind of pencil out what do the earnings look like for those businesses over the next several years under.
[03:46] Out of assumptions and sort of get to some idea of what those businesses can generate earnings over time AI.
[03:46] Secondment I think to me is still the earliest, the most nascent, we still don't know what what sort of shape that's going to take there's a couple different pieces under there.
[03:46] HoodSo going to be interesting to hear tonight how they sort of frame all the moving pieces for that business I there a sense here?
[03:47] That when we talk about what Elon Musk might be trying to do with this company, and let's just set aside the rocket business because that obviously has a singularity.
[03:47] To it that is onmat. But at least on the AI front, I mean, he's kind of late to the party. I mean, everybody is trying to build data centers. I understand he's looking more at.
[03:47] Orbital side of this here, but does it matter that he might be a little bit late to the game?
[03:47] I think is the key question because I think within AI again, there's a lot of moving pieces, there's a lot of different pieces, I should say, but Goc I.
[03:47] Grock's ability to penetrate this large enterprise AI market is key for the stock, and that does seem to be an area.
[03:47] Where they are to use your words a little late to the party, clearly behind anthropic, open AI and Google as well.
[03:47] He's going to have to talk about how he plans on catching up there, but they have demonstrated some core competency in other areas of AI.
[03:48] Losses data centers theyve built the speed and complexity at which they've built those facilities and brought on.
[03:48] of compute think they're now approaching two gigawats of compute there, so they have demonstrated some real capabilities and competency.
[03:48] That area of their AI business on the infrastructure side so are you comfortable John kind of where we stand right now in this AI space, I mean, just before you came.
[03:48] OnNviDdia, we learned through SpaceX that they' partnering with nvi NviD' partnering with everybody, there's been a lot of talk about the circularity.
[03:48] Of these various investments and deals and you know, I mean, are we just kind of passing the book around or is this sort of a genuine sort of?
[03:48] emA genuine flywhe that is going to sort of benefit everyone involved or most people involved it's best to this from.
[03:48] Level and just think very simplistically, what is the utility of aI technology, what is aI good for we know today.
[03:48] AI is good in digital media or digital advertising, we know it's good in digital commerce.
[03:49] Seeing the use cases broaden out from there is going to be key for the AI trade going forward.
[03:49] As you're over at the belly funds as we march to the closing bes and record high for the S&P 500 and SpaceX earnings after the be.
[03:49] The closing bell, Bloberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage.
[03:49] Of the U. market close starts right now and right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
[03:49] T you through to that closing bell with a globalcast we're joined now by Carol mass andton welcome to our audiences across all of our.
[03:49] Platform television radio, our partnership with youtube, a broader market carol nassar, at least with the sp&P 500 set the log its first record.
[03:49] High since june 2nd, but we're keeping an eye on earnings from ad and from SpaceX yep those are the two big ones SpaceX right now still up about9.
[03:50] 9.6% ahead of that earnings release, our quarterly update, if you will, it's definitely a risk on trade, but there's a lot at stake investors want.
[03:50] Sps when it comes to SpaceX's business, we'll see whether or not we get them and we'll see what kind of mood Elon is in as Max Chafkin reminded us.
[03:50] Sometimes it's upbeat, sometimes it's not SpaceX not the only company reporting after the bell, but it's certainly, I think fair to say the most highly anticipated one we'll hear from.
[03:50] AMD we'll hear from Paramount skyd booking Hols will give us some sort of potentially potential view on how travel has.
[03:50] and how we expect travel will play out for the remainder of the year and via that, interestingly enough, a competitor too.
[03:50] SpaceX's Starlink business is reporting too yeah, I do want to point out, though, I was taking a look at the implied market moves and all the earn.
[03:50] Companies that are reporting earnings amd an applied move of about 8%, which is high SpaceX right now implied market move.
[03:50] After the bell or tomorrow in the cast session 15% here and of course we talk about a company that's not only going to be driven a stock that'.

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[04:00] ion dollars well above what the street was looking for on the space segment it does look like net sales came in at 962 million.
[04:00] Above what the street was looking for on average of 873.7 million on the ai segment, its third large business.
[04:00] As part of this company, 2.56 billion the street was looking for $2.0 billion dollars of course, this is still a money losing company.
[04:00] With the SpaceX segment reporting an adjusted ebit loss for the quarter but of course we have to get to that conference call to learn a little bit more.
[04:00] About what the future holds, a four starship and more importantly for how elon musk puts all these pieces together into one coherent company.
[04:00] Ross kber joins us right now, co founder president and ceo of kerber kawassaki wealth and investment managementss.
[04:00] I don't even know how much usefulness it is to even go through some of the numbers on a quarterly basis backwards looking.
[04:00] A lot of investors are looking to figure out kind of whether starship sort of fulfills that promise and whether what's going to be attached to these rocks.
[04:01] It's presumably whatever sort of servers and other sort of orbital data center type of equipment are going to be along for the ride sometime soon.
[04:01] Well, I think it's going to be sooner than what people think judging from the last Starship flight that we saw, which I would consider pretty.
[04:01] Successful and when you look at the size of this thing and the fact that they're now getting it in and out of space without.
[04:01] And landing pretty well into the water we're pretty close to having a reusable massive rocket ship.
[04:01] Other than many of the technology challenges that they still face to get this to work, let's say over and over again in scale.
[04:01] But just the fact that they've gotten this far is very encouraging, and I don't think people should doubt whether or not this is actually going to happen.
[04:01] Yeah and i think that seems to be the consensus and we've certainly seen some degree of a proof of life with regards to that ship though.
[04:02] In terms of monetizing this further beyond just being sort of a taxi service, if you will, into space.
[04:02] Of this gets monetized by SpaceX itself with regards to what it's able to put there and that flows back into the company for its own.
[04:02] For its own coffers, yeah, and I thought it was interesting because I thought the most important announcement from SpaceX was their deal with NviID.
[04:02] Build these, you know, they're calling star mindd data centers in space, so really they're putting the hard.
[04:02] Where pieces together to do something that's never been done before, which works because they have Starship and they have starlink.
[04:02] So by putting the data centers in space, it really adds a whole new element of what can be done through starling as far as not.
[04:02] Just connectivity and internet access, but also sending and receiving data, so it's a very exciting idea.
[04:02] Or premise to be able to do this, and only SpaceX can do it, and I think that's what makes this investment compelling.
[04:03] Isn't really what it's doing today, but what will this look like in five years and it could be pretty damn and impressive were you surprised that they would make that announcement on?
[04:03] With regards to NVIDA and using those Ruen GPUs, I wasn't surprised because they have a very close relationship with NVIDA, what I'm surprised about.
[04:03] How rapidly they're moving forward with the development of these satellite based data centers, which obviously has never been done.
[04:03] the challenge from a technology perspective is massive, so they're moving forward full speed ahead.
[04:03] I think it's a really exciting prospect and it's a high risk investment because obviously all these things can fail, but on the other side.
[04:03] It's a high reward investment if they succeed, and so I think investors need to weigh both of those cases when looking at the stock.
[04:03] Today, but considering it trading below the IPO price, individual investors who want to buy the stock certainly are getting it at a discount compared to every.
[04:04] Let's talk about the AI business obviously created after you emerge XAI with SpaceX, we should point out.
[04:04] Also saying in the release that they do plan to close the cursor merger sometime this quarter in the third quarter, this has been a bit of a drag and it.
[04:04] There were a lot of investors that would have liked to see SpaceX go public with just the launch business and the connectivity business.
[04:04] cessI, are you comfortable with maybe what his vision is for how XI fits in all of this?
[04:04] Well, I've been sort of XAI is a painful thing because I sort of think Tesla should have owned XAI and I know Ellon didn't want Tesla to own it.
[04:04] He didn't control Tesla, so well he does, but it was shareholder wise, and so XII is a part of SpaceX, but the way I,
[04:04] at it is Elon is really good at building factories in AI, and XAI is going to be successful, whether they use the compute or sell.
[04:04] Compute, and so the fact that SpaceX or XI is investing billions of dollars into building.
[04:05] These data centers, it's going to pay off one way or another because the demand for compute is so much larger than the supply of compute.
[04:05] I'm super good at this. So I think investors are so short term minded to be worried about Capex during this.
[04:05] Tology boom period we would need the Capex to be spent if we're going to be competitive and that's exactly what space.
[04:05] And I think if you take XI out of the business, yeah, it's more profitable, it's easier to sell on the short term, but on the long.
[04:05] You're missing one of the great opportunities to be able to provide compute from space, which is actually, you potentially.
[04:05] Massive as far as an opportunity, so you know I think it should be part of SpaceX and investors just have to be patient, let this stuff play out.
[04:05] Starlink coming in 12 million subscribers at the end of the second quarter it's only profitable business the company says it has rp for star.
[04:06] L of $66 for the most recent quarter, I mean, this is kind of the one part of the business that doesn't really have to prove itself.
[04:06] I am curious as to whether there is a growth story for starlink or has it already sort of matured no mean star just.
[04:06] In so many ways, Starlink is a critical system and pretty much everybody in America should have it as a backup.
[04:06] For their internet access as a fire survivor of the Paades fire, Starlink saved us, you know, like without Starlink, I can't even tell you.
[04:06] what would have happened during that fire, so it's literally a life or death critical system and you should have it as your backup internet so there's a massive mark.
[04:06] Even in America that doesn't have starlink, and then when you talk about globally, it's huge, but there's another element to starlink that people have to honor.
[04:06] S which is the military element to starling, which is one of the reasons Ukraine is having so much success with their drone attacks all throughout the country of Russia.
[04:06] Is because they now have Starlink satellite antennas on the drones and same with the US drones, and by doing that it gives us a guidance system.
[04:07] That's global that can be managed anywhere in the world, and it creates a weapon that is almost unstoppable and we're seeing this right now in real.
[04:07] And this is due to starling, so the military side of starling is only also just begun because we haven't even built that.
[04:07] Many drones yet, like if we're going to be prepared for the future of combat and war into the 21st century for real, Starlink is going to be.
[04:07] Just a critical element to our military and our success in this new autonomous military world.
[04:07] So Starlink is just at the beginning, whether it's internet service on a boat or a backup service at your house or putting it on a drone.
[04:07] To go blow up the wildberries factory in Russia, this stuff works incredibly well, and I just there's no competitor, Rus.
[04:07] Always appreciate it ros kber, co founder, president, ce of kber kawwasaki wealth and investment management Spacex year is now taking a lake lower down.
[04:08] About7% in the after hours trade meanwhile advanced micro devices the chip maker just reporting earnings its shares now down about 9%.
[04:08] The after hours trade providing third quarter revenue guidance for the current quarter of 12.7 to 13.3 billion.
[04:08] Now the low end of that range is above the average of street estimates let's drop back though here are the second quarter numbers for the second.
[04:08] The company did report a beat on revenue 11.5 billion the street was looking for 11.3 adjusted6.
[04:08] The street on average was looking for $162 operating margin did expand 27% versus a range at well 26.9.
[04:08] Was the estimate so pretty much on the nose, the capex number coming in at about $808 million the street was looking for 200.
[04:08] 99 million dollars there back to the third quarter on that forecast, so they are saying that they do see a.
[04:08] gross margin for the current quarter of about 56% the street was looking for 56.2 I don't know if people out there quibbling.
[04:09] With a two tenths of a percentage point on that, but the company does say that its data center sales will accelerate here in the second half.
[04:09] Of 2026 we're going to keep covering both of these big names as they both move lower and we await for the conference calls of both to start.
[04:09] Our next guest, well, he's got etTFs leverage etfs for both companies, including tracking SpaceX since the IPO.
[04:09] Ran, founder and ce over at granite shes joins us right now he oversees s and sK the two times long and short space.
[04:09] ETs and, let's start with SpaceX here and with regards to what we heard today and whether that moves the needle at all.
[04:09] In either direction to the long side in the short side in terms of opinion on where this stock might go, it's interesting.
[04:09] I mean, the stock had a very good day today, obviously coming into the earnings and probably the best day that we've seen for a while.
[04:10] Certainly from our business, I can tell you that the orders were almost exclusively skewed to the short side, meaning that.
[04:10] People were buying SNK, which is our two times short, so that tells you that expectations were bearish.
[04:10] Going in, at least from our perspective, that was to some degree backed up by the prediction markets, which actually last time I saw.
[04:10] hadd the earnings at a miss instead of a beat, but of course, it's just the first day, I think there's a bit of nerve still.
[04:10] Aro what's going to happen later in the week with the lockup expiring and certainly a lot of shares available to be sold for the first time.
[04:10] So I think it was less about the earnings today and more about what's coming in the next few days well i'm curious how do you think the lockup is going to affect?
[04:10] I talking about this a lot on the show, I mean, 600 million shares right now out there trading around 900 million more shares.
[04:10] Being unlocked this thursday and there's been a lot of discussion that this isn't there's a lot of optionality for some of these insiders.
[04:11] And given when they bought in and what they're sitting on, some of these folks have to sell I think that's right so I think sentiment.
[04:11] You have to say is skewed negative here, that being said, because we've known about this, you have to ask.
[04:11] self how much of this is already priced in to the stock movements, and therefore it might be a surprise to the.
[04:11] You just never know. but I think you'd have to say based on all the evidence that you have a lot of investors who bought into the.
[04:11] valuationu significantly lower than even today's, of course, and it would be an opportunity for them to sell, which you'd have to think would put pressure.
[04:11] On the price well i'm curious what is the price to even short this because I mean, I mean s and k the last time I checked correct i'm wrong, you're charging two.
[04:11] What is it like2 and a quarter percent on this and i mean i've seen we had bob sloan on the program on the network earlier today talking about the cost.
[04:12] That just straight hedging on the shares itself here is it going to become too expensive to even bet against this stock at this?
[04:12] I think there's always a price, you know, we've seen that for other stocks and certainly stocks that are way more volatile.
[04:12] SpaceX, even that typically the market finds a way to source supply, even if it is at a very high cost.
[04:12] Cost for something like this isn't that bad at the moment because it's a huge mega cap stock. So there's quite a lot of supply.
[04:12] AilableThat does obviously change with certain other names in the market and is very much supply and demand driven, of course.
[04:12] I do want to ask you about AMD, you also have a product there, the AMYY, and those shares also getting hit pretty hard here in the after.
[04:12] Give me a sense here kind of like what people wake up to tomorrow with regards to sort of, you know how they sort of trade in and out.
[04:12] This, whether it's through your es or through the stocks themselves well I think the first thing to point out is that.
[04:13] There's been a lot of volatility this earnings season in particular, and of course we've just come off the back of a very brutal month, which is.
[04:13] July from momentum stocks, particularly a lot of the semi stocks, of course, I think it was the worst July for the NasdaAq for 22 years.
[04:13] So in that environment, you, you've had earnings, the Google earnings, for example, spring to mind where you for all intent.
[04:13] The numbers were amazing, but with slightly higher capex than the market expected. The shares took a dive and subsequent.
[04:13] recovereded, and I think we've seen that playbook in past earnings and I think what we might be going through with AMD right now is similar.
[04:13] I haven't had time to digest the earnings of right now, but I suspect it's a little bit of an overreaction to perhaps a number.
[04:13] Was well the market of price of perfection, that maybe there was some detail off, but the one thing that we typically see in the business is we see.
[04:14] A lot of activity, people trading in these levered ETFs in the pre and post market, so we get activity coming out.
[04:14] Of Asia overnight, and that's the great thing about lot of ETFs, which not everybody knows, you can trade in the pre and post markets.
[04:14] Before the official session start, and when we see moves such as this, whether it's AMD, whether it's SpaceX, whether it's SK Hex.
[04:14] You typically see a lot of interest even before the official session opens, of course, when the market opens in the morning.
[04:14] will about some of the critiques of some of these leverage ETFs and you know I mean we saw the sell off that happened over in Asia a bit of an unwind.
[04:14] There's been criticisms of funds like yours and basically the way that you have to rebalance in a lot of ways you are actually moving the very stock.
[04:14] That you track and the sec has also put out warnings, Goldman schs has said this could potentially create systemic issues should.
[04:14] Conue apa How do you respond to that I think that leveraged ETFs, if we just talk about that specific.
[04:15] have been around for almost 20 years now, this is not a new phenomenon and of course, like anything.
[04:15] Supply and demand driven, we have a free economy where investors are free to decide whether they want to buy a leveraged ET.
[04:15] For an unleveraged ETF and there's clearly demand for trading vehicles, there's investors of all types.
[04:15] Investors that want to buy and hold and are conservative and want to execute strategies for the long run and then there are investment.
[04:15] who want to execute strategies for the short run, and to me, neither is right or wrong is very much about how you express yourself.
[04:15] Individually and one thing that is obvious is that there's demand for trading, there's demand for trading tools.
[04:15] That's where leveraged ETFs play their part, they're not for everybody, they're not for buy and hold investors, but for trading vehicles, they play the role very.
[04:16] Well, well always appreciate it will Warrenin founder, CEO over at Cranite shares as we continue to keep an eye on spaceX.
[04:16] With their conference call set to kick off in just about five minutes time, we're going to hear from elon musk' his first earnings call since SpaceX went.
[04:16] And analysts are certainly likely to press them on the AI business and the massive spending associated with us joining us right now to talk about.
[04:16] The leader of this company is steve wesley, a former tesla board member and the founder of the wesley group.
[04:16] Join us again, I am curious about sort of you what you think Elon is going to try to articulate on this conference call a money losing business.
[04:16] But obviously a ton of potential up ahead for what this business can be, there is a salesmanship job that.
[04:16] not just today, but probably over the next few months and quarters you think he's going to be able to do it a darn.
[04:16] With a pretty strong track record, but look, I think this is going to be high drama because the share price down 13% from the IPO but down.
[04:17] 50% from its peak. So they've got their work cut out for them. I think what they're going to argue here is, look, they're an incredible group.
[04:17] BothThe engine that SpaceX on track that doubled from 18.7 billion in 2025 this year lookslikere.
[04:17] hit 38 billion and I think he's going to say we're probably going to double again next year, he's going to focus on being a market leader space.
[04:17] launch 51% of all launches in the world are SpaceX craft, Starlink, very profitable growing 80%.
[04:17] You know he's got a good growth story, but I think investors is going to walk away three questions, how quickly can SpaceX and Starlink?
[04:17] Continue to grow, can SpaceX AI really break in with the big boys anthropic open AI?
[04:17] And Google, I think they can, but that's going to be heavy lifting and the third point that most people aren't talking about a lot, but this is a bit of a deal.
[04:18] For an IPO where shareholders can sell 20% of their holdings within 90 days tomorrow, and so one of the questions out here is,
[04:18] To beHow many people are going to hit the exits early want to unpack it's going to be interesting and it's the 20% obviously this.
[04:18] I think you get 28 to 30% more after theq3, so this is going to be something that's going to dog this.
[04:18] For a while, but give me a sense here, I mean, you sort of rattle off the businesses themselves and no one's doubting Starlink.
[04:18] I think starship, despite some of the hiccups, most people, the consensus is that this will sort of come through to.
[04:18] FionI think some of the concern has been about Ellon bolting on a lot of other things. So let's just take XI a 13.
[04:18] evaluation for a money losing company. What is an investor betting on if they have to take?
[04:18] In XAI with it, where does XAI fit equation into the total equation AI?
[04:19] The fastest growing sector of the global economy, no one has ever seen anything like anthropic and open AI before, Musk is saying.
[04:19] We can play with those guys and I think they're showing the initial steps to do that, but it's going to.
[04:19] Not be cheap and they're talking about losses of growing from 15 billion year to 30 billion a year, some analysts are saying they might burn through us.
[04:19] Muchch is 300 billion before the end of the decade. So he's going to have to show rapid growth in the number of users going to show.
[04:19] can sell into both the individual and the B to B market this is not going to be easy, I dare say I think it's a lot easier to.
[04:19] General Motors and Ford in the electric car sector, than it is to tackle anthropic, open AI and Google.
[04:19] We'll see if he could do it, you hate to bet against Ellon Musk I have to ask you about tesla itself because there's a lot of speculation that at some point.
[04:20] Eesla might ended up getting folded into SpaceX, you know, this company from its startup days, it's obviously struggled as of late a little bit but then.
[04:20] I think about rock, it's in tesla car, starlink, I think is part of the cyberca, there's a shared chip fab in Texasex.
[04:20] I mean, you add it all up, those are just three things, Steve, I mean, come on, is not far fetched to think that at some point Mus just wake up one day and say, hey, we're just going to do.
[04:20] This and I'll do it at 420 i'm sure somewhere on 420 there you go look I mean, he all said in the last.
[04:20] Annual meeting that there are quote many collaborations with SpaceX, with Tesla, especially Terra Fab.
[04:20] And look, the number of synergies here is huge, there's synergies on chips, memory, compute, especially on energy, now SPX coloss.
[04:20] He uses microgrids powered by Tesla mega packs for load smoothing, keep in mind, we're in the time of the greatest energy demand increase in history.
[04:20] And Tesla' is one of the biggest battery sellers in the world energy companies, so there are a lot of synergies it would make.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。