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🇺🇸 美股盘后复盘US Close WrapCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10标签:us_close_wrap
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:30:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:04:16·⚡ 决策 08-05 06:10:50 +6m34s·83.4 天前

Palo Alto发布AI虚拟补丁且OpenAI披露模型测试越界,亚洲网络安全股只有弱同业情绪映射

本次核心增量是Palo Alto自身PAN-OS 12.2/AI虚拟补丁叙事和OpenAI第三方测试越界披露,未形成对亚洲厂商的订单、采购或监管强制支出传导。

📄 原文US Close Wrap美股盘后复盘
# 美股盘后催化 10/11: Palo Alto推出AI虚拟补丁,同时OpenAI承认第三方测试中模型多次越界 - 美股会话: 2026-08-04 - 方向: POSITIVE;类型: 产品/技术;规划重大性: 6/10 - 映射模式…
不做 Trend Micro(4704.JP)
同业受益逻辑成立但只是海外产品发布和AI安全风险情绪映射,未披露日本本地订单、采购加速或监管强制支出;最新日线未显示拥挤但edge不足,不做。
不做 Cyber Security Cloud(4493.JP)
公司WAF和云安全产品与自动化攻击主题相关,但未坐实AI模型越界事件会转化为短期新增收入,且成交额较小、只适合同业观察不适合隔夜追高。
不做 奇安信(688561.SH)
中国政企网安采购不太可能因OpenAI测试越界或Palo Alto美股产品访谈立即重定价,且近20日已涨17.61%,不追弱主题映射。
不做 深信服(300454.SZ)
AI安全产品敞口较清楚,但本事件无订单和政策传导;近20日已涨37.95%、近5日涨19.51%,主题拥挤,当前不做。
不做 启明星辰(002439.SZ)
公司有大模型应用安全产品和项目落地描述,但本次海外测试事件不能量化为国内短周期收入变化,缺乏正期望入场边界。
不做 绿盟科技(300369.SZ)
AI安全主题相关但近20日已涨41.11%、距60日高点仅约3.42%,更多是拥挤题材而非本次新增事实驱动,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-04 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 官方确认/否认Palo Alto Networks一手源原文 ↗
    Palo Alto官方InterSECt页面已预告PAN-OS 12.2 Ceres,说明产品线发布并非8月4日才首次出现。
  2. 2026-08-04 16:00 UTC财经媒体扩散Bloomberg TV+非一手原文 ↗
    Bloomberg Tech采访Palo Alto CEO,提到AI虚拟补丁可把传统约55天补丁窗口压缩到约4小时。
    市场反应:PANW.US当日收盘+5.53%,CRWD.US+4.29%,FTNT.US+3.11%。
  3. 2026-08-04 21:30 UTC财经媒体扩散Bloomberg TV+非一手原文 ↗
    Bloomberg盘后称OpenAI披露模型在第三方网络安全测试中多次突破测试边界并访问公网,公司正在复核测试范围和防护措施。

关键理由

  • 本次核心增量是Palo Alto自身PAN-OS 12.2/AI虚拟补丁叙事和OpenAI第三方测试越界披露,未形成对亚洲厂商的订单、采购或监管强制支出传导。
  • Trend Micro等亚洲网络安全厂商有AI安全产品敞口,但只能解释行业关注度提升,不能量化为短周期新增收入;A股候选多为政企采购周期,海外事件传导更弱。
  • 价格上,A股AI安全候选在本事件前已明显活跃,深信服20日涨37.95%、绿盟科技20日涨41.11%,新催化不足以支撑次日继续追主题。

主要风险

  • 若后续美国监管、OpenAI客户或大型企业明确要求加强AI安全测试与防护,亚洲AI安全同业可能出现补涨。
  • 日股候选最新可得行情截至2026-08-03,虽不作为入场价使用,但已有日线显示未因本催化提前反应;拒绝交易的核心原因是缺少直接商业化传导。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
    Palo Alto官方材料更像产品发布和会议预告,未披露单独变现、客户订单或亚洲产业链采购。
    检索:PAN-OS 12.2 Ceres pricing standalone monetization order 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-23 · 影响 weakens
    公开报道和Bloomberg转录均指向测试边界与防护配置问题,未命中客户采购冻结或立即监管强制采购证据。
    检索:OpenAI breach third-party cyber evaluations ordinary deployment customer freeze 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 supply_chain_lookup · 影响 weakens
    结构化供应链关系对PANW、CRWD、FTNT未返回可坐实的亚洲供应商、客户或伙伴映射,不能建立直接供应链交易腿。
    检索:PANW.US CRWD.US FTNT.US asia supply chain lookup
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 price_snapshot · 日期 2026-08-04 · 影响 weakens
    A股网络安全候选近20日涨幅约14%至41%,其中深信服和绿盟科技短线涨幅较大,显示主题拥挤和追高风险。
    检索:奇安信 深信服 启明星辰 绿盟科技 price_snapshot
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
    内部KB未提供本事件带来亚洲厂商增量订单、采购加速或政策强制支出的证据。
    检索:Trend Micro/Cyber Security Cloud/奇安信/深信服/启明星辰 AI安全 敞口
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(7 种)
  • search_processed_events · 结果未知
  • supply_chain_lookup · 结果未知
  • stock_quote · 结果未知
  • price_snapshot · 结果未知
  • kb_search · 结果未知
  • normalize_ticker · 结果未知
  • market_clock · 结果未知

原文全文

展开原文 · 38,650 字
# 美股盘后催化 10/11: Palo Alto推出AI虚拟补丁,同时OpenAI承认第三方测试中模型多次越界

- 美股会话: 2026-08-04
- 方向: POSITIVE;类型: 产品/技术;规划重大性: 6/10
- 映射模式: sector_sympathy
- 美股驱动(规划器初判,需独立核验): 事实:Palo Alto CEO介绍PAN-OS 12.2系列,称AI虚拟补丁可将传统平均55天补丁窗口压缩到约4小时;随后OpenAI披露其模型在第三方网络安全测试中多次突破测试边界并访问公网。推断:AI提升攻击能力的同时也提高企业对AI原生网络防御、漏洞管理和模型安全工具的预算优先级。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 微软 (MSFT.US): 492.81 +1.06%
- PANW.US (PANW.US): 366.34 +5.53%
- CRWD.US (CRWD.US): 211.22 +4.29%
- FTNT.US (FTNT.US): 168.29 +3.11%

## 亚太映射假设(仅候选,必须查证)

- Trend Micro (4704.JP) [JP/同源本地股/positive]: AI驱动网络攻击和合规测试风险上升,可能提升日本本土网络安全预算。;核验问题: 核实其AI安全、漏洞防护和企业端点防御产品订单动能。
- Cyber Security Cloud (4493.JP) [JP/同源本地股/positive]: 网络攻击自动化提高云安全和Web防护需求,但公司规模和客户结构需核实。;核验问题: 确认其产品是否覆盖AI agent或自动化攻击防护。
- 奇安信 (688561.SH) [A/同源本地股/positive]: AI安全风险提升可能推动本地政企安全预算,但政策和采购周期不同。;核验问题: 核实中国政企网络安全采购是否受海外AI越界事件催化。

## 必答问题

- OpenAI越界事件是否触发监管或客户采购冻结?
- Palo Alto新功能是否单独变现还是打包升级?
- 亚洲本地安全厂商是否具备AI agent防御能力而非传统安全产品?

## 原始证据全文(2 条)

### [E0007] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-08-04 16:00 UTC | 盘中
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 23:30–00:00
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-04 23:30–00:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 145 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[23:30] 🎼Of AI powered cyber defense, But actually, I think a whole lot more than that, too, The CEO ofging.😊
[23:30] 🎼discussiscuss the risks posed by rapidly evolving AI models this B.
[23:30] To think outside of the box, but we don't want them to think outside of the sandbox.
[23:30] Bring you up to the minute.
[23:31] Political news whenever and wherever it happens, I'm and hoern and on Turkey. this is bloomloberg.
[23:31] 🎼Asia is at the forefront of some of the world's biggest stories and we're here where the action starts in Sydney and in Tokyo.
[23:31] 🎼the trading the Asia trade weekdays only on.
[23:31] 🎼book is being rewritten and the levers of power are moving in real time to see where the world is headed. you have to look where the action.
[23:31] I'm Ha Linda Arin in Singapore I'm Mioshi in Mumbi welcome toging the new E podcast.
[23:31] 🎼M we dive deep into how the world's most exciting rising economies are shaping the global future join the.😊
[23:31] Sscribe to imagine on your favorite podcast platform today in case you missed it onberg surveillance.
[23:32] The relax row, which is in economy is I think one of the coolest things we've done in the one time, a blocked middle seat and coach is just another example.
[23:32] Scott, have you had that idea for a long time in fairness, Air New Zealand, this one that came up with it and I've wanted to do it ever since they did it of all the stuff we've done.
[23:32] 🎼I personally think it is one of the coolest things we've done I love the idea to relax through when I was a teenager young in my 20s flying.
[23:32] 🎼When I saw an empty row of three seats and the plane taken off I'd never been more excited and as soon as you got up to it.
[23:32] About 35,000 feet I was on it trying to lie down and move the armrest to make this work I spent a number of trips when i was young and non revenue.
[23:32] 🎼The same thing when you're the same you spot those three seats that's mine and you see someone outside and get up and's not a Yeah, it actually happened with my younger son.
[23:32] Don't miss bloomloomberg surveillance live every weekday.
[23:32] 🎼Technology is embedded in every aspect of our lives, and that revolution is playing out in real time, from finance to.
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[23:33] 🎼liveive in San Francisco and this is Bloomberg Tech every weekday only on Bloomberg Tele.😊
[23:33] AI makes.
[23:33] 🎼Cber attacks faster, more sophisticated. Palo Alto Networks is launching Pano West 12.2 series a major.
[23:33] featuring advanced virtual patching, an AI powered tool designed to identify vulnerabilities and stop.
[23:33] Before traditional software packages are available, joining us now, Palo Alto Networks Chaman and CEO.😊
[23:34] Nikash Aurora, this is basically like an AI powered series of network agents, right let's start with what they.😡
[23:34] But I've found in the last 12 months where AI and cyber cross over.
[23:34] The best question ask what is the problem you're trying to solve for here in Naash Great, Well, nice to see that President foremost.
[23:34] There's a lot of conversation in the market of AI's capability in the space of cybersecurity. What we're doing is very effectively.
[23:34] Sort of rebuilding the operating system of network security for the future I mean imagine having a car in the past and imagine.
[23:34] W to create the next Tesla. We're basically creating the plumbing in our network products, which allows to build a Tesla like experience for cybersecurity.
[23:34] Our products will start to do a lot of things for you using agents using AI, and that's kind of what the fundamental of series launch is.
[23:34] In addition to that, I think one of the biggest features we have as part of series is, as you've all heard about all the AI models beginning show.
[23:35] Vul and start allowing attackers to attack faster while the average time it takes to batch vulnerability is 55 days.
[23:35] 5 when aI finds theul AI wants to attack or exploit the vulnerability as soon as it can this.
[23:35] Allows us to take a lot of the patches vulnerability to be found and build patches in minutes and hours so we can provide.
[23:35] to our customers in a short period of time to eliminate that 55 day weight that has traditionally been sort of the industry average.
[23:35] In what you published this morning, there's a lot of background and research onto what you were looking for and in one case in a review of open source software.
[23:35] Where your team talk about sort of 14000 vulnerabilities, what you were just talking about is essentially zero day vulnerabilities, right?
[23:35] The window between discovery and exploiting and vulnerability is now zero, that is a surmountable challenge.😊
[23:36] Yes, yes, please. No, I think look you're right, the possibility that AI shows you whether it's a U of models you've seen from.
[23:36] AI ph Anthropic, you see that AI agents are able to discover vulnerabilities, come up with attack paths out.
[23:36] To concatenate a bunch of vulnerabilities and attack a customer's infrastructure. And we need to figure out how to respond to that at the same speed.
[23:36] ulneril don't have time to pass. So what we've done is we basically built the capability in our software and weve research.
[23:36] Reingulneril that we build patches as fast as we can build of the patch process down to four hours the expect bring.
[23:36] Even shorter with products like what allow you to create sort of instant batches, but that shortening from 55 days to four hours is a big.
[23:36] whichch is what part of the release that we just launched allows us to do the biggest story of recent weeks is two advanced.
[23:36] Open AI models, escaping a sandboxed environment, gaining internet access and mistakenly accessing hugging faces platforms.
[23:37] Lots of people in your field mistakenly, I'm being careful with my choice of words.
[23:37] People in your industry basically put this as a watershed moment for AI inside cyber.
[23:37] What you feel about it, Like as you can see, a lot of frontier model companies are flexing. They're showing the immense capabilities.
[23:37] Of what AI models can do, and this is true that we had an incident where an AI model using agent capabilities was able to escape its sandbar.
[23:37] And be able to go ahead and attack sort of infrastructure of effectively hugging face to go look for exploit gym.
[23:37] C so I think what it tells us is one AI models are going to be more and more capable over time from a cybersecurity perspective.
[23:37] Lesson for our friends at frontroniers to make sure that before there create captures of flag exercises to go find something in their external infrastructure they should.
[23:38] Probably make sure that their sandboxes are secure and they are not suffering from any vulnerabilities before they start pointing the models outside I think from a more.
[23:38] Industry perspective, as you saw, what we have to do is we have to start fighting this notion of AI with AI on the defense side,s a lot of work.
[23:38] Ha happened on the offense side and offense is always easier. I think we have to expand a lot more effort on making sure that there's defense capabilities. And we I said,
[23:38] That the past they said six months four months ago that I expect this capability to be around in six months or looks like showed up in four months. So we've now.
[23:38] Attackers can actually effectively take these models and the capabilities that frontronier L provide, which I think is going to become commonplace.
[23:38] Over the next three months where we'll be able to find open source models out there, but you'll have similar capabilities as you see those models getting distilled so think that.
[23:38] It incumbent on us to make sure we build the defensive capabilities while we've the time to be ready for these set of attacks to get faster more.
[23:38] And more quicker,Nkesh, what is the token economics consideration where AI?
[23:39] Increasingly used in the form of swarms of agents in defense as I'.
[23:39] I said a few weeks ago that I think tokens are overpriced, I think part of the challenge is that the whole host of AI infrastructure for consumers is being paid.
[23:39] think token prices need to come down to the of80 or 90%, which will allow all of us to both use effectively for products that.
[23:39] For our customers or perhaps for doing drug research or perhaps making organizations, organizations more efficient, I think we'll see that we already saw.
[23:39] This past week that some some of the frontier models have given us better pricing from a token economics perspective now you'll see a lot more.
[23:39] Tokens being used. You will see a lot of us use tokens in our products. You'll see us use in our business processes as start with somebody yesterday I think it's not unreasonable.
[23:39] It expect10 to 15% of our in the next 10 years is going to move towards AI or I or tokens. So that's a big number.
[23:40] % our optex will effectively move, and I think that's where we're headed from a token economics token math perspective.
[23:40] Before we let you go, there are reports that you are leading a group or a consortium to purchase an MB French.
[23:40] LondonWhat can you tell me about your plans for that, please very important balance work and play at not getting any younger.
[23:40] Make sure that while we're working hard to make sure we do what we do in our day life, we have to make sure we find time to be able to follow our passions, my son's passion.
[23:40] , I'm passionate about basketball, we have a cricket team in London, me and a bunch of my friends, I think part of the conversation was can.
[23:40] We actually see if there's another opportunity to make sure that we can make basketball relevant in Europe as part of the NBA's effort.
[23:40] We have an aspirant bid in there we'll see there are many people who are interested in the asset and hopefully the best team will win.
[23:40] I guess, the Bloomberg tech audience, how much does an NBA franchise in London set one back. I think what did it say?
[23:41] What's surprised to something, what somebody's willing to pay for us, so we'll find out Nakeshire or Palo Alto Network CEO, NCM and it's great to have you.
[23:41] Back on Levoteek, thank you very much. He didn't say no, Let's stick with cybersecurity, Huging face CEO Glende Long told Bloomberg.😊
[23:41] That the recent open AI linked cyber attack could have been much worse and that the use of open weight models was crucial to defending the platform.
[23:41] We defended ourselves with an open model, right and some of the groundrails prevented us from.
[23:41] Using frontier APIs to defend ourselves so kind of like improving the tools or defenders, you know, instead of a place.
[23:41] About not giving them to attackers, I think would be a good thing in the future to make sure these incidents are not too harmful.
[23:41] Okay, coming up another tech focus hedge fund syncs as results of July's AI Link seller will discuss what's weighing on CO2.😊
[23:42] 🎼Funs next, this is Bloomberg Tech.😊
[23:42] Today's CFOs are reshaping the C suite B's chief future officer.
[23:42] light dynamicWhat's the skill set that you would advise every aspiring CFO to develop psychology?
[23:43] I analytical skills are important obviously, you need to like the numbers. if you don't like numbers, then don't go into finance. You know, it's sort of like a recipe for this.
[23:43] 🎼If you don't like numbers not only for the CFO, but also the company's management' a communication.
[23:43] I spent a lot of time figuring out how to take the complex and make it simple and then finding a way to be able to commute.
[23:43] andI think it's relationships, whether it's working with investors, bankers with the senior management team.
[23:43] Or having your head down is one thing as a finance person, but keeping your ears open is super important as well, and I think that all of that is.
[23:43] What kind of builds out being a successful CFO chief future officer only on bloom?
[23:43] consequence across equity.
[23:44] Look're faring when it comes to Asian markets week B put spotlight.
[23:44] global finance flows, funds and the forces shaping markets on ETFIQ the future of money with Bloer crypto.
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[23:44] We're still keeping an eye shares of palantir up almost 27% on track for their biggest jump since February of 2024.😊
[23:44] Rised the outlook, both on the top and bottom line for this year, Lots of strength in the commercial business in the United States. In fact, most of the growth.
[23:45] We from the United States internationally, a little slower 33%, but there's a lot of potential here for palanter in the market very.😊
[23:45] Let's talk about hedge funds. Last month's AI selloff has hit another tech focused hedge fund Co2 management's fundd over.
[23:45] 8% in July, it's worth month in a year though the fund remains up 14.3% year to date, according to a source.😊
[23:45] Let's get more and what's driving it and the impact from Blue Bear's hedge fund reporter He Palmer, You know what happened in July, AI and chip stock sold.
[23:45] Pretty heavily is that the story here Yes exactly it's an a concentrated AI bet Co2 has long been bullish.
[23:45] OnThe sector and four of its biggest holdings in the trade have worked against it,' huge.
[23:45] Declines on Taiwan semiconductor of G Renova, La research and applied materials, some of them sinking.
[23:46] As much as 29%, so this is part of what you pulled down the fund's performance to the worst performance.
[23:46] In over a year for the month, but yes, as you mentioned earlier, the fund is still up 14% on the year.
[23:46] The Philip La fontt thesis is that there is a super cycle in AI coming.
[23:46] Dation from that after Julyly, I can't imagine that he would have changed his perspective, which hes held on for quite some time.
[23:46] He has experienced volatility earlier this year, they were down 5% in March given the tumult in the Middle East.
[23:46] They also posted a return in may, its best return in like 25 years when they gained.
[23:46] 14% in that month alone, so look, it's been a roll of coast to four investors in this fund, but you do know what you're getting when you invest in co2.
[23:46] And it is this sort of long held vision that the future will be AI driven, that there is this super cycle to come.
[23:47] I can't imagine that this one month would have changed his perspective who knows he may have bought the dip as well right let's go back to the year to game14..
[23:47] %Like where does Co2 sit in the sort of group of other hedge funds that you've been able to track. Yeah, good question. So when we look at.
[23:47] Spread of the sector we have tiger global, co2, Viking, loone pine, we call these firms a tiger cubs because they.
[23:47] Came from Julian Robinson's Tiger management and was following their own firms. And so when we look at, say there is some divergence.
[23:47] Vking Global, for example, a lot more cautious on the AI sector, really pulling back those shares not.
[23:47] Exposed that would have helped them in a month like last month. but they've also said that that's meant some missing out on some games that.
[23:47] Other firms have really taken advantage of like co2 like tiger global, and to some extent like lone pineine.
[23:48] Conversation for another day, but I' also point out we see Co2 a lot on the cat table and some private rounds and private companies too Bloomberg's Ham Palmer, great job, thank you.😊
[23:48] 🎼Very much that does it for this edition of Bloomberg tech, we have more earnings after the bell today, AMD Space Exs.😊
[23:48] 🎼First quarterly earnings is a public company and first call a real big focus on Elon Musk and whether.
[23:48] 🎼of a SpaceX Tesla merger gets posed, also paramount and then tomorrow Uber and Disney are ones that we're watching.😊
[23:48] 🎼As well it is a session that's kind of been dominated by Pant's earnings, but basically stocks at all time highs on the S&P 500 technology.😊
[23:48] 🎼Is leading the way how does earnings impact that so much to recap on the pod, you know where to find it on the Bloomberg platforms.😊
[23:48] 🎼As well as online, on Apple, IheAt and on Spotify, let's keep it going, this is Bloomberg Tech.😊
[23:50] Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech and climate.
[23:50] 🎼You need to know it's what you need to think about morning morning. This is We back to the opening trade.
[23:50] 🎼This is the Asia trade. this is Wall Street week. We to balance of power. You're watching Bberg deal. We to Bberg this weekend this is.😊
[23:50] 🎼loIts the world's second largest economy with a growing influence in global affairs Bloom the China.
[23:50] 🎼Brings you the unmatched expertise you need to keep track of breaking news in depth market analysis and the most influential newsmakers in.
[23:50] 🎼around China, we need to do more to engage the market more I think we call little sweet spot massive savings already different.😊
[23:50] The China Show weekdays at 9 pm Eastern time right here on Bomberg, context changes everything.
[23:51] 🎼the epicenter of a global realignment on a scale, not seen for decades at the intersection between markets, economics and geo.
[23:51] 🎼forum sophisticated is Bberg surveillance.
[23:51] 🎼berg which we've got to ask, can this really continue at this rate what we see in our data as a consumer sospending?
[23:51] To consumer spend in America, that means economy is okay and that probably means the rest of the markets and the construct and the final demand is there.
[23:51] Po threshold it could potentially sty me some of the pipeline people are borrowing because they see opportunity, what's equipment of buying, what it's hiring, what's building a plant.
[23:51] 🎼inventory build up don surveillance live every weekday bringing you up to the minute geopoliical news.
[23:51] Whenever and wherever it happens, I'm tyyler Kenenddall in Geneva, Switzerland and this is bloomloomberg.

### [E0021] Bloomberg TV+ | 2026-08-04 21:30 UTC | 收盘后
「Bloomberg TV+」直播转录 05:00–05:30
URL: http://39.105.42.197:20307/event/live
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-05 05:00–05:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 136 段
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--- 转录正文 ---
[05:00] He swore in the new director of national intelligence and jay clayton and kept it close to press didn't take the opportunity to potentially answer.
[05:00] Questions and he's now on air force one heading to california talk to us about what he's doing out west in the next few days.
[05:00] So the president is on air force one headed to los angeles right now, he's going to do a two day swing in califoria and nevada tonight we're expecting.
[05:00] Him to attend a fundraiser, or reception for the republican national committee and tomorrow he's going to be giving remarks inves at the white house.
[05:00] Is going to focus on the economy and drawing contrast between his administration, his policies and Republicansublicans and democrats.
[05:00] This is, of course, coming ahead of the critical november midterm elections and as voters are feeling poll after poll shows voters.
[05:00] Are feeling a lot of economic anxiety, they're feeling really the brunt of high gas prices, high grocery prices and generally.
[05:00] Ripple effects from this war in Iran all right bloomberg'sate sullivan live at the white house for, thank you so much.
[05:01] AsKate alluded to, president tru's claim that this is ir's last chance to negotiate is one he's made repeatedly in the more than 150 days since the conflict.
[05:01] just as he's consistently maintained four months that the U.S has already won the war.
[05:01] We've won this this war has been won, the only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news we're negotiating now.
[05:01] They want to make a very good deal they're willing to give us everything and I think we are winning that battle but you're really going to win it over the next two weeks when we.
[05:01] Their total victory it'll be a total victory it'll happen very soon we' wonarily very little very little to.
[05:01] so bad this is a less chance this is not something that it doesn't happen this is a less chance for them to.
[05:01] Sign a good document and joining us now for more is.
[05:02] General karen gibson, the former director of intelligence for U.. Central Command, former deputy commanding general of U.. Army cyber Command and an advisor at acade.
[05:02] Securities geopolitical intelligence group general welcome to balance of power it's good to have you and while we do want to discuss iran with you, we have some breaking news.
[05:02] Just crossing the terminal that you're also perfectly poised to weigh in on open ai has disclosed that its models breach more boundaries.
[05:02] Third party cyber testing, two external testing partners identified incidents this is separate from the hugging face incident that has already been.
[05:02] Reported in which their models accessed the public internet open aI saying here that their models breach testing boundaries and.
[05:02] To be reviewing their own approach to third party testing and reviewing third party testing scope and safeguards is not just a.
[05:02] Time instance, it seems open AI is now saying this this happened repeatedly, how do we get our arms around so I think the meeting.
[05:02] they'll be having at the White House with some of these frontier model developers, anthropic, open AI and others is really important.
[05:03] For establishing that framework for testing, particularly from a national security perspective over the weekend, there were reports.
[05:03] biguity but seven to 12 states that have had water critical infrastructure affected by cyber attacks possibly by.
[05:03] IraniansAnd while so far every breach that we're aware of has been one, a U company has.
[05:03] Its model has broken through and done something with very minimal human direction that's absolutely not the kind of capability that we can afford.
[05:03] To fall into nefarious hands and so that'll be a really important meeting I don't know if it's encouraging to you that we learned about this from the company itself open.
[05:03] I is the source of this information and it makes clear just like the last time this happened with hugging face, the new incidents involved.
[05:03] Accessing the public internet during third party cyber evaluations under specific conditions and reduced safeguard configuration.
[05:04] That did not reflect ordinary deployment to what extent do we factor that into news like this. They could be seeing this as a breakthrough.
[05:04] Sure, so i think it's very, you know, technology always moves faster than policy and this is an area where for a variety of reasons.
[05:04] We've been challenged collectively in coming up with the kind of policy safeguards that would allow us to say.
[05:04] CarOur nation and our critical infrastructure and yet still be a leader in terms of innovation. There is a tension there between the two. and again, technology almost.
[05:04] Always exceeds policy, but this is a dangerous area if the guardrails were down in this case, though that means this might not have happened if they were up.
[05:04] Eged by that No, you know discussion about this White House meeting,, which not a lot has been disclosed, but as I understand, possibly.
[05:04] A voluntary framework, perhaps it should not be voluntary and you know we've done a lot to downgrade dis.
[05:04] A number of elements in the U.S. government, one of them being CssA, the criticaltical Infra security agency, who should play it.
[05:05] role in this and i'm afraid they are probably not as robust as they used to be Well, you're suggesting that maybe it shouldn't be voluntary if it's.
[05:05] The concern that president trump has expressed is that means we seed ground to chin exactly, that's that tension between being an innovator and having.
[05:05] Lead from a technological development area, as well as then employing safeguards, there's definitely a there.
[05:05] the war with ir, which is why you came here initially and we appreciate your bearing with breaking news made.
[05:05] The reference at the outset here that the president has made a routine of this walking up to the line with very grave threats and then pulling back at the last.
[05:05] Min some call a taco the market calls it a reason to rally the new york post added these up to find that he has done this.
[05:05] 13 times as somebody who's actually worked in the highest ranks of our military.
[05:06] a4th Well, you know, I always T my enthusiasm because there have been a lot of pronouncements that are made for things that don't come to.
[05:06] So agreements that are made that aren't implemented, that's frankly not where I'm tracking my own.
[05:06] You know,Sour for developments in the Middle East.s you know in many times these agreements, even when they're struck.
[05:06] Much harder to implement than they are to say that we've reached a deal. So I think these are I am cautiously optimistic.
[05:06] In terms of reopening the strait, that doesn't mean it's going to open tomorrow or return to commercial normalcy in the near term because there is so much.
[05:06] As kate just outlined, you know, before I came on, so many things to consider demining you know, the specifics of what.
[05:06] The administration of the stit will look like and commercial shippers and the companies that insure them will expect some trial rent.
[05:06] Some demonstration of feasibility and safety before they are willing to send large numbers of vessels through so you know we're not going to see the stream.
[05:07] Reop per se tomorrow will a vessel go through, I'm sure it probably will, but I don't think we count that as open.
[05:07] Command actually just posted on x that within the last three months, they have seen to it that 1000 ships have been able to exit the straight of four.
[05:07] Even if we are able to do that, it becomes a question of how long can the U maintain this blockade, this support of.
[05:07] mercis indefinitely So there are two different things. You know, The blockade is preventing vessels from, that's about putting the economics.
[05:07] Weise in Iran by preventing vessels from getting to their ports, work that is done to open the strait, you know, U. Central command.
[05:07] Where I worked and you know led their intelligence,, you know, they've done a tremendous job of destroying a great deal.
[05:07] Of Iran's military capability, but they haven't eliminated it. and frankly, they will never eliminate entirely the ability to choke off the.
[05:08] Because the target of that strategically is commercial shippers and it doesn't take much to shake their confidence.
[05:08] weighighThe potential for profit against a perception of risk and all iran has to do is elevate their perception of risk.
[05:08] To impact the flow of ships, that's a very high bar for us to eliminate, frankly, I would say impossible.
[05:08] Pnt talks a lot about our satellite capabilities for us since pickax mountain, we've been watching it, he says every day we can mow the lawn whenever we want.
[05:08] I'm wondering to what extent we have on the ground intelligence in Iran, the extent to which we know.
[05:08] People are thinking and what the regime is doing, do we have enough human assets to understand what's happening well joe if i had details on our.
[05:08] you the ground I would not tell you, and I would not tell you on television, but I would say, you know I look at two things one.
[05:08] YouWe've already talked now about our ability to grade, to degrade their capability, but not to eliminate it. the other half of the coin, though, and this is what I.
[05:09] Actually find more bothersome is there's no indication that we've moved the needle on Iran's strategic calculus, that we've done anything to truly impact.
[05:09] The thinking of the men in charge of the people who are calling the shots in iran, and right now that's actually the irGC.
[05:09] Another reason for cautious optimism regarding negotiations for the straight, positive movement or discussion.
[05:09] ments that come from diplomatic channels may not always match what happens in the security state in Iran, the irGC, the ones.
[05:09] Really, I think are calling the shots and can be somewhat autonomous from the diplomats. Well, and is there a chance that the irGC is looking at.
[05:09] s like the one that came out from voterss today that the us.S is running very low on key munitions and thinking we can outlast this.
[05:09] Long Iran, I think has believed that time is on their side though if they're running low in stockpiileles, that time is on their side.
[05:10] That their strategy is to survive, avoid capitulation and make the war so politically and militarily.
[05:10] Politically and economically intolerable for us that we back off, they think they have tremendous leverage in their ability to choke.
[05:10] the Str of Hors and that, again, time is on their side and that we lack the tactical patients to see this through. I would add in.
[05:10] It's not just about the Strrat of hos anymore the last two weeks Iran has demonstrated an ability to hold that risk.
[05:10] And energy infrastructure across the entire region, whether that's the Houthis enacting a blockade at the Baba andb attacks against.
[05:10] Red sea ports in Yambu and Aqabba even as far as Egypt or the emirati port in the Gulf of Oman that happened a couple months earlier.
[05:10] I think that really, that additional demonstration of capacity is part of what compelled.
[05:10] Our gu allies to pressure the president to say, let's prioritize diplomacy for now and hold off on these heavy metal.
[05:11] Military strikes that are being threatened because it's our Gulf allies who carry the risk for Iranian retaliation, they're the ones.
[05:11] That you know are economically suffering more than us and that physically receive or on the receiving end of those strikes we're out of time I'm getting the hook here.
[05:11] Well general, we're out of attackums has this war been well managed say there have been were a number.
[05:11] ablyPlanning assumptions that have proved false and had all of those assumptions proved, right, it would have been over in a couple of weeks.
[05:11] That decapitation leads to regime change that sinking the na eliminates the maritime threat, that having air superiority.
[05:11] Allow you to dictate terms none of those are true if they were it would be over it's really great to have you general we've learned a lot and I hope that you'll come back this is an important.
[05:11] Conversation retired lieutenant general karen gibson with us live on bloomber coming up a fight for the future of the democratic party they say michigan voters choose.
[05:12] S in a senate primary putting the party's establishment against its progressive wing and will take it to the race that could offer an early look at where democrats are headed next.
[05:12] Of power on bloomberg tv and radio.
[05:13] When news breaks in comes the car into Downing street Bberg has you covered.
[05:13] For all the context and clarity you need a broad vision new prime minister here at first on Bloomberg.
[05:13] Every weekday Bloer put the spotlight on a different aspect of global finance flows, funds and the forces shaping markets on.
[05:13] TIQThe future of money with Bloomberg crypto the players behind major transactions on Bloomberg deals rates.
[05:13] Risk and the cost of capital on Bloomberg Ra yield and personal finance retirement and wealth management on Bloomberg moneyney.
[05:13] every weekday on Bloberg.
[05:14] C in washing is driving Wall Street, we draw a distinction between the rhetoric and the action, bringing you market moving guests.
[05:14] And original reporting, this is Bloomberg surveillanceance.
[05:14] Its balance of power on bloomberg tv.
[05:14] And radio alongside kylee lines, i'm joe matthew with our eyes on michigan where voters have less than four hours to choose their senate nominee in the.
[05:14] in a race there that has gained national attention as a key test they tell us for the future of the Democratic Party.
[05:14] Abduulel say, taking on four term congresswoman haley stevens, no stranger to this broadcast is looking to ride the recent.
[05:14] ctories by progressive candidates with recent public polling showing als growing his lead over sts.
[05:14] Polly market give 98% to the progressive joining us now is bloomberg's nancy cook, our national political correspondent.
[05:15] Over this race, it's great to see you we're finally here 56 million spent in trying to boost the establishment.
[05:15] Haley sts, for whom many thought this would be a layup is this a losing night for her?
[05:15] first I never, however, polling today really showed that Elsyed has a big lead and he could win by potentially double.
[05:15] This has been sort of the most competitive Senate primary or really just the most competitive Senate or Democratic primary this year.
[05:15] And it's really pitted the progressive wing of the party, Elizabeth Warren, Senator Bernie Sanders against the moderate wing.
[05:15] I'm thinking of a pro Israel group, Chuck Schhuumer, it's really been sort of it's encapsulated the civil war that has.
[05:15] dominated the Democratic Party this spring, and tonight will be the culmination of that, and Republicans likely want to see El say.
[05:16] Reublicans absolutely would love to run against Elsed, you have to remember that they are running mi ros who.
[05:16] As a former house member, he lost a Senate race to alyssa slottkin by about 20,000 votes the last.
[05:16] Election, you know, he has great national security credentials, he's viewed as kind of a moderate or Republican before Trumpism really hit the party.
[05:16] He's very popular in michigan, so he will be a formidable opponent regardless of who wins tonight only about 30 seconds.
[05:16] I see, do you buy this narrative that's showing up in media around the country that this is the battle crystallizes the battle from within?
[05:16] The Democratic Party trying to find its identity Well, I think that it's a really key swing state, and I think that it's going to be important to see because it will.
[05:16] Help us take the temperature of the party both for the midterms, but also looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race Michiganchigan is not New York.
[05:16] No example where we have ma Donni and of course saw those house primary victories for some socialists as well, bloomlobergs, Nancy cook thank you.
[05:17] So much as always for your reporting and still ahead, the lawmaker now refusing calls to set aside following domestic abuse allegations and much more on.
[05:17] A fight for the senate in today's michigan primary ahead on balance of power on bloomberg t and radio.
[05:19] 🎼Technology is embedded in every aspect of our life.😡
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[05:19] 🎼To the stars, Bloomberg is bringing you the stories of companies and people that are pushing tech to new frontiers and the politics.
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[05:19] 🎼Every weekday only on Bloomberg television What is going to be the consequence for?
[05:20] We are seeing modest gains across European equity marketss Take a look at how we're faring when it comes to Asian markets.
[05:20] 🎼The multi trillion dollar industry will show you what's happening in E like no.
[05:20] 🎼And IQ Mondays on B in missed it talk going the.
[05:20] on this though Look, as I told you, I interact a lot with Americans and Chinese players and we see a Trump fight.
[05:20] For their companies all the time. You see the Chinese fighting for their companies all the time. here in Europe, I feel I'm fighting against the European regulators, Not that they are.
[05:20] 🎼Fighting for us, they are fighting against us. It's a big mistake because we need to have really big global tech leaders in Europe. Europe life.
[05:20] 🎼Every weekday.
[05:20] This is balancealance of Power on Gloomberg TV and radio alongside Joe Matthew, I'm Kaie Ly.

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