🇺🇸 美股盘后复盘US Close WrapCodex · 实盘不做把握 3/10标签:us_close_wrap
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:14:59时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:41:54·⚡ 决策 08-18 06:45:51 +3m57s·70.5 天前
油价升至90美元上方且美债长端收益率上行,航空股成本和估值承压但缺少亚洲公司级强空催化
AP核实Brent升至90美元上方、10年期美债收益率升至4.72%,宏观方向对航空股偏负面。
📄 原文US Close Wrap美股盘后复盘
# 美股盘后催化 10/10: 油价上涨和长端美债收益率上行压制高估值资产,航空等油价敏感股受冲击 - 美股会话: 2026-08-17 - 方向: NEGATIVE;类型: 其它;规划重大性: 4/10 - 映射模式: macro_co…
不做 中国国航(00753.HK)
航油成本敞口明确,但本次只是公开宏观油价/利率冲击,非公司级强空;0753.HK当日仅涨0.12%,无可交易边界。
不做 中国南方航空(01055.HK)
油价上涨方向偏空,但1055.HK当日已跌1.81%,且缺少公司级新增重大负面,不满足开空红线。
不做 日本航空(9201.JP)
受油价影响但缺少真实报价、燃油对冲和日元油价核验;宏观催化不足以下空单。
不做 大韩航空(003490.KS)
未取得真实行情和内部KB敞口证据;仅行业beta负面,不能交易。
不做 长荣航(2618.TW)
燃油成本压力方向成立,但2618.TW当日反涨4.76%,本催化无明确price-in错位或强空证据。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- AP报道Brent上涨至90美元上方,油价推升通胀压力并带动美债收益率上行。市场反应:S&P 500下跌0.5%,Nasdaq下跌0.3%。
- 节目提到WTI和Brent上涨、30年期收益率处于2007年以来高位附近,JetBlue因Seaport下调评级和高负债风险下跌。市场反应:JetBlue盘中跌幅扩大。
- WSJ摘要称JetBlue面临油价和中东风险带来的财务压力,Seaport将评级从buy降至neutral。市场反应:支持美股航空负面读出,但仍是JetBlue个股事件。
关键理由
- AP核实Brent升至90美元上方、10年期美债收益率升至4.72%,宏观方向对航空股偏负面。
- JetBlue下跌主要叠加Seaport下调评级、霍尔木兹海峡假设和自身高负债,并非亚洲航空公司的直接新增事实。
- 中国国航、中国南方航空、长荣航等有燃油成本敞口,但本催化属于公开宏观变量,不满足开空红线。
主要风险
- 若霍尔木兹海峡风险继续升级并造成油价二次跳升,航空股盈利压力会放大。
- 生产环境stock_tools未暴露给本代理,无法实际完成stock_quote、kb_search、supply_chain_lookup、search_case_library和event_study,按fail-closed不交易。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-17 · 影响 weakens
已核实的是油价和利率宏观冲击,以及JetBlue个股评级下调;未发现中国国航、南方航空、日本航空、长荣航、大韩航空的公司级新增重大负面。
检索:亚洲航空股是否存在公司级强空催化 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
需逐公司核验;仅凭宏观油价上涨不能直接升级为可交易开空。
检索:燃油附加费和票价传导是否可能缓冲航空油价冲击 - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-17 · 影响 weakens
JetBlue下跌含Seaport评级调整和自身高债务风险,亚洲航空公司并无同等公司级触发。
检索:JetBlue负面是否可直接映射亚洲航空公司 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足,降低置信并全部AVOID。
方向:宏观方向偏空航空。
涨幅量级:无法量化亚洲本地股可交易幅度。
形态:油价冲击容易被燃油附加费、票价传导、汇率和需求变化抵消。
原文全文
展开原文 · 29,417 字
# 美股盘后催化 10/10: 油价上涨和长端美债收益率上行压制高估值资产,航空等油价敏感股受冲击
- 美股会话: 2026-08-17
- 方向: NEGATIVE;类型: 其它;规划重大性: 4/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动(规划器初判,需独立核验): 事实:AP称Brent上涨2.4%至90.62美元,10年期美债收益率升至4.72%,油价增加通胀压力;Bloomberg The Close称WTI和Brent上涨、30年期收益率处于2007年以来高位附近,并提到JetBlue因Seaport下调评级和霍尔木兹海峡假设变化而大跌。推断:油价和利率上行对亚洲高杠杆航空、出行和消费链可能构成风险,但需要公司级燃油对冲和债务结构核验。
## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情
- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker;必须联网核实具体 mover。
## 亚太映射假设(仅候选,必须查证)
- 中国国航 (待归一) [HK/同源本地股/negative]: 油价上行可能抬升航油成本并压缩利润率。;核验问题: 最新航油对冲、燃油附加费政策和国际航线恢复情况。
- 长荣航 (待归一) [TW/同源本地股/negative]: 油价上涨和长端利率上行可能压制航空盈利和估值。;核验问题: 燃油成本敏感度、负债期限和客货运需求。
- 日本航空 (待归一) [JP/同源本地股/negative]: 若油价维持高位,航空燃油成本压力上升;日元汇率也会影响实际成本。;核验问题: 日元油价、燃油对冲和票价传导能力。
## 必答问题
- 霍尔木兹海峡相关风险是否继续推升油价。
- 亚洲航空公司燃油附加费和对冲是否足以缓冲。
- 长端利率上行对高杠杆亚洲公司估值影响多大。
## 原始证据全文(2 条)
### [E0001] AP Financial Markets | 2026-08-17 20:04 UTC | 收盘后
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
URL: https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-futures-rates-oil-japan-bf398d5a01f611921c0b48a8bfc884d9
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
NEWYORK (AP) — U.S. stocks slipped further from their record heights after rising oil prices cranked up the pressure on inflation and financial markets. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% Monday but remains near its all-time high set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.3%. Wall Street is near records in large part because profits are booming for big U.S. companies, and investors are waiting for the latest updates from the nation’s biggest retailers coming later this week. In the meantime, rising oil prices sent yields upward in the bond market. Stocks slipped in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
NEWYORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are edging further from their record heights on Monday, ahead of a week where profit reports from the nation’s biggest retailers could give a hint about how shoppers are dealing with high inflation and a slowing job market.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% but remains near its all-time high set Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 284 points, or 0.5%, as of 2 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower.
Wall Street has run to records in large part because profits are booming for U.S. companies. Those in the S&P 500 index are on track to deliver growth of roughly 50% for earnings per share in the spring from a year earlier, according to FactSet. That’s much better than analysts expected and would be the best since five years ago, when the economy was erupting out of the chasm created by the COVID pandemic.
Nearly all the companies in the S&P 500 have turned in their profit reports for the spring. Still to come are big retailers, including reports this week from Home Depot, Target and Walmart.
They’re facing pressure. Their customers’ incomes may be turning iffier after U.S. employers surprisingly cut more jobs last month than they added. At the same time, their customers are continuing to see bills rise quickly as inflation remains much higher than anyone would like.
A report last week said that shoppers surprisingly spent less at U.S. retailers last month than in June, and CEOs for retailers could give color this week on what they’re seeing.
In the meantime, the wait continues for what the war with Iran will do with oil prices. The price for a barrel of Brent crude rose 2.4% to $90.62 Monday, and the losses for stocks solidified in the afternoon as the gains for oil prices accelerated.
U.S. stocks are hanging near their record heights in early trading.
Brent zigzagged between $72 and $102 last month as hopes rose and fell that the United States and Iran could reach a deal that would allow oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf again.
In the bond market, Treasury yields ticked higher following their own big recent moves. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.72% from 4.68% late Friday following a report showing stronger-than-expected growth in manufacturing in New York state.
The 10-year yield has shot up from 3.97% before the war with Iran, largely because higher oil prices raised the pressure on inflation and upped the probability that the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates.
Higher rates could keep a lid on inflation, but they do so by intentionally slowing the economy and making it more expensive for everyone to borrow money. The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has already jumped near its highest level in a year because of the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield.
Reports last week, though, showed that inflation last month was not as bad as earlier in the summer. That raised hopes that the Fed could wait until later in the year before having to decide whether to raise its main interest rate.
Usually around this time of year, anticipation is building on Wall Street to hear from the head of the Federal Reserve about where interest rates may be heading. But the Fed’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, may give little insight at this year’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of this month, according to Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie Group
Warsh has been adamant about giving Wall Street less guidance about the Fed’s plans for interest rates.
On Wall Street, trading was relatively quiet.
L3Harris Technologies fell 3.9% after the defense company said Christopher Kubasik stepped down as its CEO and chairman following “certain conduct by Kubasik that was not consistent with the values of the Company.” It gave few details but said the conduct was not related to its financial reporting, controls, customer relationships or operational performance.
Alphabet dipped 0.9% even though Berkshire Hathaway said it increased its investment in Google’s parent company, along with several homebuilders. Berkshire built a reputation for buying stocks at affordable prices under its former CEO, famed investor Warren Buffett.
Constellation Brands fell 5.7% after Berkshire said it sold all its holdings in the seller of Modelo beer and Robert Mondavi wine.
In stock markets abroad, indexes dipped in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% after a report said Japan’s economy grew at a slower pace in the April-June quarter than economists expected. Indexes jumped 1.3% in Hong Kong and 1.4% in Shanghai for some of the world’s biggest moves.
___
AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Michelle Champan contributed to this report.
___
Earlier versions of this story incorrectly reported that Japan’s economy grew slightly faster than expected in the April-June quarter.
### [E0002] Bloomberg TV+ · The Close | 2026-08-17 20:14 UTC | 收盘后
Bloomberg TV+ The Close transcript · 2026-08-17
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us
[15:55:07 ET] So we think things like the broadening out is an interesting one, but we think you have to be very careful about how you trade it tactically. So right now, I think it something like semis.
[15:55:15 ET] could be better to we're definitely in the dog days of August right now it's middle of August labor day is going to be really late this year.
[15:55:23 ET] And what's interesting is that some of the heaviest trading days this year took place in june does the market actually adhere to seasonal patterns the way?
[15:55:31 ET] It used to, given the increased participation of retail investors, maybe and maybe not, there are things in seasonality that work and there are things that don't work.
[15:55:39 ET] We certainly saw a week or so ago an absolute explosion in call option activity, so we had one of the busiest days ever and call optionss and what should be.
[15:55:47 ET] The quieter period of the market. So when we observe seasonality, we definitely do see the seasonality in terms of volumes. We see seasonality.
[15:55:55 ET] in terms of dispersion around things like earnings, and we do see some patternss of seasonality around returns, so all this tends to be a better period of returns.
[15:56:03 ET] The S&P then September or October, but I think you have to be very careful of that because some of that kind of persistence can be quite weak.
[15:56:11 ET] Give contrarian trade. Whats maybe one part of the market that investors are getting wrong. I think it a contrarian trade at the moment, I think small.
[15:56:19 ET] ps, even though it's performed very well this year is something that has been going under the radar a little bit in the last couple of months. People have been worried about the backdrop of rise.
[15:56:27 ET] atesAnd as I said earlier, it's interesting because the Russell is very negatively correlated to higher rates. So on the face of our higher rates should be bad for Russell.
[15:56:35 ET] But I think the idea that higher rates are being driven by a strong economy, that's something that can leave a fatter right tail for Russell than many are anticipating.
[15:56:43 ET] why rates are rising that I look at the vis, it's just about 15 above 15 half of where it was in late march.
[15:56:51 ET] Also a decline from the 20 recorded at the end of july, what does a broad measure like the vix fail to show us, what does it mask for instance so i think it's interesting.
[15:56:59 ET] Because if you look at the viX, it just kind of showed you roughly what has happened, the volatility has compressed a lot, and we're at low levels of volatility.
[15:57:07 ET] Because it's quite how fierce that volatility compression has been under the surface. What we saw going into summer. there was this massive spread.
[15:57:15 ET] Between single name options, so options on single name corporates were extremely elevated relative to the indices, S&P and VIX.
[15:57:23 ET] What happens is volatility has come down over the last month, but the order of magnitude for single names and indeed, for things like semis has been absolutely massive.
[15:57:31 ET] V what's a more normal healthy correction in the V you so much for joining us today, really appreciate it you for coming in.
[15:57:39 ET] Head of equity and derivative strategy at BnP parriba so we've got a couple of big events coming up we do Nvidia earnings obviously going to be.
[15:57:47 ET] centerI remember when people used to hold watch parties because of these earnings reports even here, like I wouldn't go home and I'd wait for the n earningss.
[15:57:55 ET] It's interesting because we have JP Morgangan saying markets continue to climb the wall of worryry and to your pointers Nvidia we get a slew of retailers this week there's fed minutes on a Wednesday.
[15:58:03 ET] I mean that's kind of backward looking, but then I feel like any chance that investors can get to parts through Kevin washsh's view they will take and of course, Kevin washsh and others will be speaking.
[15:58:11 ET] Jackson hole the following thursday as well after video results and we'll be all over that let's count you down to the closing valve full market coverage.
[15:58:19 ET] Coming up right now the closing bell bloomberg's comprehensive coverage.
[15:58:27 ET] U market close starts right now we're about two minutes from the end of the trading day on this monday scarlafu.
[15:58:35 ET] Bely here with you and here to help us take you through the closing bell is a global simulcast we're joined out by car masser and jo Doe bringing together the.
[15:58:43 ET] Of our Bloomberg television, radio and YouTube audiences worldwide to parse through the most crucial moments of the trading day and it feels a little bit like a quiet.
[15:58:51 ET] Summer day, Carol, as we await some kind of catalyst, maybe it'll be retailer earnings, maybe it won't be until Nvidia's results next week.
[15:58:59 ET] Our FOMC minutes on Wednesday, having said that not so boring when you look at the Treasury trade, we've definitely seen U. yields ticking high.
[15:59:07 ET] We've got maybe the concerns again about the U war in Iran, this as it's pushed once again WTI and Brent higher, we've got WTI.
[15:59:15 ET] Right now up to about 2.3%, so that again speaks to some concerns inflationary wise.
[15:59:23 ET] The other day in markets with some unpredictable tweets from the president over the weekend that keep us on our toes you guys are always talking about that, aren't you?
[15:59:31 ET] Always, I mean, we're seeing earnings, we're wrapping up earnings and it's been really relatively strong we have Goldman saying that Eps growth is tracking.
[15:59:39 ET] At 31% year over year, but the impact of air adoption on corporate earnings remains relatively narrow. so again, the winners are still relatively.
[15:59:47 ET] I would say a small group, but then it's interesting to see the outsized impact that it has Yeah, it continues to have an outsized impact and you reminded us.
[15:59:55 ET] Well is well the headline that we got on anthropic and the 60 billion plus run rate that it's now hitting annual run rate and the anticipated.
[16:00:03 ET] And ahead of that eventual IPO all right, we're getting closer to the closing right now we are looking at declines for a second day for the.
[16:00:11 ET] S&P 500 down half of 1% right now as we hear the protein bells bringing the down industrials also down about half of one.
[16:00:19 ET] Sa the nasdaq, the better performer among the three major indexes down about a third of1 percent and the Russell 2000 of small cap index.
[16:00:27 ET] Mama cap stocks, which had been holding it better than some of the big cap names in the month of July, down about a third of 1% as well Carolroll.
[16:00:35 ET] All right, just going back to the big caps, the S&P 500, definitely more of a risk off trade, no doubt bad at scarlet36.
[16:00:43 ET] The name isabel to the downside as I look at the index 134 to the upside to unchanged and taking a look at the im up.
[16:00:51 ET] Seeing kind of a mixed picture there, actually, oh no, mine was taking a while to load, it's mostly red you're seeing just one bright spot there and that is.
[16:00:59 ET] whichch is trading higher the Carol and Joe are trading lower right guys, let's go to some of the individual gainers if I may.
[16:01:07 ET] Joe has a decliner so I start with Sandisk, this is your number one gainer in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq one.
[16:01:15 ET] Really what we saw you guys mentioned, Isabel and Scarlet, the Anthropic investment we continue or the anthropic.
[16:01:23 ET] Information in terms of its financials and just getting an idea of how big a business it's got and how much growth we are seeing.
[16:01:31 ET] AI link stocks rising after Anthropic told prospective investors that its preliminary second quarter revenue was 11.5 billion.
[16:01:39 ET] number on them so Sandisk, that stock was up almost 9% in today's session, pick your name though.
[16:01:47 ET] Marvel was also a high flyer up about five and a half percent yet had Western digital, that was good for gain of about 5.3%.
[16:01:55 ET] And coherent was up almost 7.8%, so again, keep in mind, yes, it's a theanthropic name, but once again invest.
[16:02:03 ET] Just pushing what has been a common narrative, this broader rally when it comes to memory and storage stock.
[16:02:11 ET] After Sandisk outlined an upbeat multiyear financial outlook, we got that last week, Sandisk continuing to be really.
[16:02:19 ET] High flyer this year, it is a top performing name by a wide margin in the S&P 500, so there's that group, and then I just got to mention space.
[16:02:27 ET] Because we've seen this name top in it Nasdaq 100 today, up about 4 and a5 percent at the close investment firm.
[16:02:35 ET] For ultra wealthy individuals have built up billions of dollars of exposure to SpaceX, somewhere more than a dozen family offices holding a total of at least three.
[16:02:43 ET] 0.8 billion in SpaceX through the first half of 2026 is, according to those U filings, 13 F filings, Harvard2.
[16:02:51 ET] stake some 2.2 billion or nearly 13 million shares. So, you know, even though Spacex has struggled a bit in terms of the.
[16:02:59 ET] Coming off of the IPO, Ultra wealthyy, Harvard, and some others, they definitely want to have a piece of SpaceX.
[16:03:07 ET] it's interesting to see who's holding the stock now versus when it first went public It's a really good point, right.
[16:03:15 ET] moved along a little bit All right, you've got thers I've got thers, I've got a bit of a mixed bag mine doesn't have a theme to it, but we're.
[16:03:23 ET] At eye point shares, they had a record drop today, the drug developer said it's experimental treatment for an eye disease failed to meet.
[16:03:31 ET] A primary goal in its late stage trial, this is called wet age related macular degeneration.
[16:03:39 ET] The thing here was Cantor cut their rating on the company to neutral from overweight, saying that the trialist was quote, a scenario so unlikely.
[16:03:47 ET] In our view that we hadn't even contemplated it in our bull bear base case scenario analysis in our recent initiation.
[16:03:55 ET] It was interesting, they have another trial coming up that doesn't necessarily mean this is the end, so that's one thing to keep an eye on the next is bellies.
[16:04:03 ET] Of course, the casino entertainment company, their shares tumbled the most intraday since February of last year after the company warned investors.
[16:04:11 ET] Of quote substantial doubt that we'll be able to continue as a going concern. Listen, the company reported financial results in the second quarter late.
[16:04:19 ET] Citizens analyst Jordan Bennder noted that the situation doesn't appear dire, but we do not believe the company has the ability to finish all of its projects.
[16:04:27 ET] Without selling or bringing in a development partner at its current leverage levels, so leverage is a massive thing there listen.
[16:04:35 ET] Bendner also noted that they just closed a purchase of Sam'stown for an estimated 30 million, they have a $4 billion downstate New York.
[16:04:43 ET] Casino project in progress, which some folks around here might know about and of course that has a Las Vegas development and finally I'm looking at.
[16:04:51 ET] Blue Airways, the shares dropped as much as 6.7% after seaport global securities cut the recommendation on the airline to neutral from.
[16:04:59 ET] As you know, Carol had been talking a lot about her moves in Iran today, analyst da mKenzie says the balance sheet risk moves to the front burn.
[16:05:07 ET] Without the Strait of Hms open, which is a critical assumption around their upgrade back in April, they know, to be sure.
[16:05:15 ET] Volaatility is a challenge for all, but it's a disproportionate risk to JBluU given the elevated debt levels so that's just one more thing.
[16:05:23 ET] By ratings guys no by ratings 10 holds7 cells as speaking of debt levels, let's talk about the bond market here you lot.
[16:05:31 ET] On the screen a sell off in treasuries, particularly at the long end of the yield curve goes straight to the bottom there for the 30 year yield not the highest.
[16:05:39 ET] 2007 june of 2007 that is before the financial crisis, the ten0 year yield also elevated insofar as it's at the highest level.
[16:05:47 ET] So far this month, it has not retraraced to the highest level that we've seen in ju, but still, that's quite a move.
[16:05:55 ET] And of course the balance of risk seems increasingly tilted towards inflation, persistent inflation all right guys, we've got a great story that's on our radar.
[16:06:03 ET] And it's about thieves stealing from trains, you know, you think of like Westerns, all time Western.
[16:06:11 ET] You think of Jesse James or Bush Cassidy and all that good stuff, turns out, guys, criminals napping more than 200.
[16:06:19 ET] of goods from 75,000 thefts on U. freight rail networks in 2025, according to an industry group that represents some of the big trade.
[16:06:27 ET] Names including csx I mean, they're stealing things, Joee like Nikkes and other stuff Class one railroads back in the news, maybe not for what they want to.
[16:06:35 ET] but having spent a lifetime covering commodities, the number of heists you hear that are similar to this, people putting copper on flatbed trucks and getting.
[16:06:43 ET] In the middle of the night this is a good one that I think anybody would love to read I mean there's some incredible detail in that story where they are also trying to steal cars.
[16:06:51 ET] It's kind of difficult to actually move a car somewhere else and sell it on the black market, so they've kind of resorted to things like computer parts or things are easier.
[16:06:59 ET] Just sell in the gray market. And I think to stave off all of these selling, they're going to try to incorporate or what is the word I'm thinking ofre going.
[16:07:07 ET] Put high techre to more thank you, Carcarla for the GRE lesson, but they're going to integrate more high tech.
[16:07:15 ET] to really maybe catch the thef cameras everywhere and they've like got these massive offenses and everything to prevent people from stealing it, but there's a lot of.
[16:07:23 ET] Cartels ands involved in all this they might try to steal beef go so's thank you car.
[16:07:31 ET] Finally becoming a little too expensive for a American households, we know beef prices have been going up, up, up, up up, and the Trumpmp administration has been doing a lot of work.
[16:07:39 ET] Trying to bring that down, perhaps like opening the door to more imports from Argentina. But it's now come to the point where the growth in.
[16:07:47 ET] Beef has started to fall off a little bit, started to turn over. I mean, we're still eating a lot of beef, but maybe not growing at the same pace as we were before.
[16:07:55 ET] become a treat. I mean, it's pretty shocking sometimes you look at some of the prices and you're just like, my husband does a lot of the shopping. And I think at some point I'm like wait.
[16:08:03 ET] How much is that steak and I'm like, oh my god, you could buy, I don't know, not quite a house, but it feels almost a part of it.
[16:08:11 ET] They're eating chicken now I mean I don't know I guess it depends on who you ask, but some people say chicken is healthier anyway, I mean without all the GMO you.
[16:08:19 ET] I don't know, I saw people at Costco who were holding up some short ribs and saying this one's for the dog, wow.
[16:08:27 ET] Those are the people who are giving their dogs peptides and light treatments and come on the humanization of pets.
[16:08:35 ET] L I stole from this story I thought it was really good my dogs are getting joy kibble, what about you, Joe I currently just have a tolerance to take care of.
[16:08:43 ET] Also also expensive, also expensive, all right guys, that is a wrap our cross platform, radio, TV, YouTube, Bloomberger Ris, we do call it.
[16:08:51 ET] The closing bell Scarlet and Iabel back there on the close on Bloomberg television, Joe and I back here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily folks, we will see you again.
[16:08:59 ET] Same time, same place tomorrow coming up on the close, we've got an assessment of the opportunities across alternatives.
[16:09:07 ET] Movahi he is global alternative strategist at JP Morgan As Management that is coming up next in the second hour of the close right here on bloomberg.
[16:09:15 ET] The.
[16:09:23 ET] The.
[16:09:31 ET] The.
[16:09:39 ET] The.
[16:09:47 ET] The.
[16:09:55 ET] In case you missed it on Bloomberg deals, we're invested in another restaurant, so we're in Shake Shack.
[16:10:03 ET] We're economically one of the larger shareholders, maybe the largest active shareholder. It's several hundred million.
[16:10:11 ET] YouWe're really excited and when you look at the quality of this business, how great a business it is, how much it's growing, how many new stores can open.
[16:10:19 ET] It's just too cheap at Shake Shack are there operational changes that you think that they should be making and that you would push to make don?
[16:10:27 ET] There are massive operational changes, so if you can have among the best returns on a new restaurant build, it makes it easier to justify.
[16:10:35 ET] Building more and more restaurants, what you do it yourself or you have a franchisee do it. So the opportunity here isn't so much operating.
[16:10:43 ET] We think they do a great job there the opportunity is to continue their mid teens growth and accelerate it even further.
[16:10:51 ET] Bberg live every week.
[16:10:59 ET] Are you ready now to go into a growth phase or is this still a business in transition I've been with BPp for four months now Im very pleased with many.
[16:11:07 ET] Things I seen the balance sheet is first and foremost an area of challenge We've got work to do on the portfolio. We're in too many assets we need to sharpen our capital.
[16:11:15 ET] Plan and make sure every dollar that we're spending is making an impact on the bottom line these are the things that will help deliver a step change in performance for BP.
[16:11:23 ET] Don't miss the opening trade live every weekday.
[16:11:31 ET] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this.
[16:11:39 ET] Is theWelcome back to the close'mlet F.
[16:11:47 ET] Where markets close on the it is another down day for us equities the s& 500 last week closed out a record high today lower by half of 1%.
[16:11:55 ET] But trip makers did not participate in the sell off they were hired for a fourth day in five, 1.6% advance for the philadelphia semiconductor.
[16:12:03 ET] index oil prices are higher and bond yields are higher as well the 30 year yield is now the highest since 2007 before the fight.
[16:12:11 ET] That was really the big headline grabber last week. I feel like everyone was just talking about that because it just really raises questions on what.
[16:12:19 ET] It will mean for the fiscal deficit of the nation and obviously it will be a headache for those in Washington absolutely you've got some movers, individual movers that you're watching.
[16:12:27 ET] I have individual movers. thank you for reminding me so centeen this is a health insurer shares her down after the company reported its CEO drew AshherO.
[16:12:35 ET] Rather plans to retire at the end of 2027 you stock there down by4 and a half percent jetlu Airways we talked about scarlet always.
[16:12:43 ET] Takeakn this when she goes to the West Coast shares are also down actually close even lower by 7 and half%. That's after seaport global security.
[16:12:51 ET] cut its recommendation on the airline to neutral. The analyst over there, D Mckenenzie says the balance sheet risk moves to the front burner.
[16:12:59 ET] The Str of Hms opening and finally Shopify another red, I basically choose all the red losers shares are down by three. a5 percent.
[16:13:07 ET] After ph Securities downgraded the e-com platform to accumulate from buy so price targetet is now $170 from.
[16:13:15 ET] 60All right let's also remind everyone that big headline that we got in the last hour, which is from anthropic on track to generate.
[16:13:23 ET] revenue of more than $65 billion dollars based on its current performance according to people familiar with the matter aI certainly remains a central market.
[16:13:31 ET] With those impressive figures and helping to lift stocks tied to the aI build out our next guest says that the massive funding flowing through.
[16:13:39 ET] Sp is transforming public and private markets joining us live is aon mova hill he is global alternative strategist at jpmgan As management.
[16:13:47 ET] And Aaronin, it goes to the point of all these hyperscalers and hyperscale adjacent companies have a lot of things that they're spending on and they need to.
[16:13:55 ET] Find money to borrow from wherever they can get it, whether it's the public markets or the private markets, and the problem that that creates is for investors.
[16:14:03 ET] They need to work really hard to make sure they're not overly concentrated in tech, whether it's in equities, in public credit or in private credit.
[16:14:11 ET] And it's increasingly a challenge for any kind of investor, if you're investing across the public markets, the private markets, one of the charts in our new guide.
[16:14:19 ET] It is looking across all asset classes and seeing where technology is making up a greater share, and today you look at the public market.
[16:14:27 ET] think we're well aware of the S&P 500, 40 something percent, 47% and our latest analysis is tech, if anything that's an understatement.
[16:14:35 ET] Because it doesn't include some companies that we classify as consumer goods companies that are buying a lot of AI chips, and then in the private markets, we have a lot of announced.
[16:14:43 ET] Since the last couple of weeks of asset managers, private equity, private credit, again, contributing massive amounts of commitments to build out.
[16:14:51 ET] AI data centers, so that's something that technology, not just technology investors, but all investors need to be aware of the technology concentration in markets today.
[16:14:59 ET] And we've already seen some of the damage to private credit funds with a lot of investors trying to redeem their stakes in those.
## 研究交付要求
这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化,不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序;用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选;逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in;候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。
- 美股会话: 2026-08-17
- 方向: NEGATIVE;类型: 其它;规划重大性: 4/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动(规划器初判,需独立核验): 事实:AP称Brent上涨2.4%至90.62美元,10年期美债收益率升至4.72%,油价增加通胀压力;Bloomberg The Close称WTI和Brent上涨、30年期收益率处于2007年以来高位附近,并提到JetBlue因Seaport下调评级和霍尔木兹海峡假设变化而大跌。推断:油价和利率上行对亚洲高杠杆航空、出行和消费链可能构成风险,但需要公司级燃油对冲和债务结构核验。
## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情
- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker;必须联网核实具体 mover。
## 亚太映射假设(仅候选,必须查证)
- 中国国航 (待归一) [HK/同源本地股/negative]: 油价上行可能抬升航油成本并压缩利润率。;核验问题: 最新航油对冲、燃油附加费政策和国际航线恢复情况。
- 长荣航 (待归一) [TW/同源本地股/negative]: 油价上涨和长端利率上行可能压制航空盈利和估值。;核验问题: 燃油成本敏感度、负债期限和客货运需求。
- 日本航空 (待归一) [JP/同源本地股/negative]: 若油价维持高位,航空燃油成本压力上升;日元汇率也会影响实际成本。;核验问题: 日元油价、燃油对冲和票价传导能力。
## 必答问题
- 霍尔木兹海峡相关风险是否继续推升油价。
- 亚洲航空公司燃油附加费和对冲是否足以缓冲。
- 长端利率上行对高杠杆亚洲公司估值影响多大。
## 原始证据全文(2 条)
### [E0001] AP Financial Markets | 2026-08-17 20:04 UTC | 收盘后
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
URL: https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-futures-rates-oil-japan-bf398d5a01f611921c0b48a8bfc884d9
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
US stocks edge further from their record after oil prices rise
NEWYORK (AP) — U.S. stocks slipped further from their record heights after rising oil prices cranked up the pressure on inflation and financial markets. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% Monday but remains near its all-time high set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.3%. Wall Street is near records in large part because profits are booming for big U.S. companies, and investors are waiting for the latest updates from the nation’s biggest retailers coming later this week. In the meantime, rising oil prices sent yields upward in the bond market. Stocks slipped in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.
NEWYORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are edging further from their record heights on Monday, ahead of a week where profit reports from the nation’s biggest retailers could give a hint about how shoppers are dealing with high inflation and a slowing job market.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% but remains near its all-time high set Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 284 points, or 0.5%, as of 2 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower.
Wall Street has run to records in large part because profits are booming for U.S. companies. Those in the S&P 500 index are on track to deliver growth of roughly 50% for earnings per share in the spring from a year earlier, according to FactSet. That’s much better than analysts expected and would be the best since five years ago, when the economy was erupting out of the chasm created by the COVID pandemic.
Nearly all the companies in the S&P 500 have turned in their profit reports for the spring. Still to come are big retailers, including reports this week from Home Depot, Target and Walmart.
They’re facing pressure. Their customers’ incomes may be turning iffier after U.S. employers surprisingly cut more jobs last month than they added. At the same time, their customers are continuing to see bills rise quickly as inflation remains much higher than anyone would like.
A report last week said that shoppers surprisingly spent less at U.S. retailers last month than in June, and CEOs for retailers could give color this week on what they’re seeing.
In the meantime, the wait continues for what the war with Iran will do with oil prices. The price for a barrel of Brent crude rose 2.4% to $90.62 Monday, and the losses for stocks solidified in the afternoon as the gains for oil prices accelerated.
U.S. stocks are hanging near their record heights in early trading.
Brent zigzagged between $72 and $102 last month as hopes rose and fell that the United States and Iran could reach a deal that would allow oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf again.
In the bond market, Treasury yields ticked higher following their own big recent moves. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.72% from 4.68% late Friday following a report showing stronger-than-expected growth in manufacturing in New York state.
The 10-year yield has shot up from 3.97% before the war with Iran, largely because higher oil prices raised the pressure on inflation and upped the probability that the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates.
Higher rates could keep a lid on inflation, but they do so by intentionally slowing the economy and making it more expensive for everyone to borrow money. The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate has already jumped near its highest level in a year because of the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield.
Reports last week, though, showed that inflation last month was not as bad as earlier in the summer. That raised hopes that the Fed could wait until later in the year before having to decide whether to raise its main interest rate.
Usually around this time of year, anticipation is building on Wall Street to hear from the head of the Federal Reserve about where interest rates may be heading. But the Fed’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, may give little insight at this year’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of this month, according to Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie Group
Warsh has been adamant about giving Wall Street less guidance about the Fed’s plans for interest rates.
On Wall Street, trading was relatively quiet.
L3Harris Technologies fell 3.9% after the defense company said Christopher Kubasik stepped down as its CEO and chairman following “certain conduct by Kubasik that was not consistent with the values of the Company.” It gave few details but said the conduct was not related to its financial reporting, controls, customer relationships or operational performance.
Alphabet dipped 0.9% even though Berkshire Hathaway said it increased its investment in Google’s parent company, along with several homebuilders. Berkshire built a reputation for buying stocks at affordable prices under its former CEO, famed investor Warren Buffett.
Constellation Brands fell 5.7% after Berkshire said it sold all its holdings in the seller of Modelo beer and Robert Mondavi wine.
In stock markets abroad, indexes dipped in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% after a report said Japan’s economy grew at a slower pace in the April-June quarter than economists expected. Indexes jumped 1.3% in Hong Kong and 1.4% in Shanghai for some of the world’s biggest moves.
___
AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Michelle Champan contributed to this report.
___
Earlier versions of this story incorrectly reported that Japan’s economy grew slightly faster than expected in the April-June quarter.
### [E0002] Bloomberg TV+ · The Close | 2026-08-17 20:14 UTC | 收盘后
Bloomberg TV+ The Close transcript · 2026-08-17
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us
[15:55:07 ET] So we think things like the broadening out is an interesting one, but we think you have to be very careful about how you trade it tactically. So right now, I think it something like semis.
[15:55:15 ET] could be better to we're definitely in the dog days of August right now it's middle of August labor day is going to be really late this year.
[15:55:23 ET] And what's interesting is that some of the heaviest trading days this year took place in june does the market actually adhere to seasonal patterns the way?
[15:55:31 ET] It used to, given the increased participation of retail investors, maybe and maybe not, there are things in seasonality that work and there are things that don't work.
[15:55:39 ET] We certainly saw a week or so ago an absolute explosion in call option activity, so we had one of the busiest days ever and call optionss and what should be.
[15:55:47 ET] The quieter period of the market. So when we observe seasonality, we definitely do see the seasonality in terms of volumes. We see seasonality.
[15:55:55 ET] in terms of dispersion around things like earnings, and we do see some patternss of seasonality around returns, so all this tends to be a better period of returns.
[15:56:03 ET] The S&P then September or October, but I think you have to be very careful of that because some of that kind of persistence can be quite weak.
[15:56:11 ET] Give contrarian trade. Whats maybe one part of the market that investors are getting wrong. I think it a contrarian trade at the moment, I think small.
[15:56:19 ET] ps, even though it's performed very well this year is something that has been going under the radar a little bit in the last couple of months. People have been worried about the backdrop of rise.
[15:56:27 ET] atesAnd as I said earlier, it's interesting because the Russell is very negatively correlated to higher rates. So on the face of our higher rates should be bad for Russell.
[15:56:35 ET] But I think the idea that higher rates are being driven by a strong economy, that's something that can leave a fatter right tail for Russell than many are anticipating.
[15:56:43 ET] why rates are rising that I look at the vis, it's just about 15 above 15 half of where it was in late march.
[15:56:51 ET] Also a decline from the 20 recorded at the end of july, what does a broad measure like the vix fail to show us, what does it mask for instance so i think it's interesting.
[15:56:59 ET] Because if you look at the viX, it just kind of showed you roughly what has happened, the volatility has compressed a lot, and we're at low levels of volatility.
[15:57:07 ET] Because it's quite how fierce that volatility compression has been under the surface. What we saw going into summer. there was this massive spread.
[15:57:15 ET] Between single name options, so options on single name corporates were extremely elevated relative to the indices, S&P and VIX.
[15:57:23 ET] What happens is volatility has come down over the last month, but the order of magnitude for single names and indeed, for things like semis has been absolutely massive.
[15:57:31 ET] V what's a more normal healthy correction in the V you so much for joining us today, really appreciate it you for coming in.
[15:57:39 ET] Head of equity and derivative strategy at BnP parriba so we've got a couple of big events coming up we do Nvidia earnings obviously going to be.
[15:57:47 ET] centerI remember when people used to hold watch parties because of these earnings reports even here, like I wouldn't go home and I'd wait for the n earningss.
[15:57:55 ET] It's interesting because we have JP Morgangan saying markets continue to climb the wall of worryry and to your pointers Nvidia we get a slew of retailers this week there's fed minutes on a Wednesday.
[15:58:03 ET] I mean that's kind of backward looking, but then I feel like any chance that investors can get to parts through Kevin washsh's view they will take and of course, Kevin washsh and others will be speaking.
[15:58:11 ET] Jackson hole the following thursday as well after video results and we'll be all over that let's count you down to the closing valve full market coverage.
[15:58:19 ET] Coming up right now the closing bell bloomberg's comprehensive coverage.
[15:58:27 ET] U market close starts right now we're about two minutes from the end of the trading day on this monday scarlafu.
[15:58:35 ET] Bely here with you and here to help us take you through the closing bell is a global simulcast we're joined out by car masser and jo Doe bringing together the.
[15:58:43 ET] Of our Bloomberg television, radio and YouTube audiences worldwide to parse through the most crucial moments of the trading day and it feels a little bit like a quiet.
[15:58:51 ET] Summer day, Carol, as we await some kind of catalyst, maybe it'll be retailer earnings, maybe it won't be until Nvidia's results next week.
[15:58:59 ET] Our FOMC minutes on Wednesday, having said that not so boring when you look at the Treasury trade, we've definitely seen U. yields ticking high.
[15:59:07 ET] We've got maybe the concerns again about the U war in Iran, this as it's pushed once again WTI and Brent higher, we've got WTI.
[15:59:15 ET] Right now up to about 2.3%, so that again speaks to some concerns inflationary wise.
[15:59:23 ET] The other day in markets with some unpredictable tweets from the president over the weekend that keep us on our toes you guys are always talking about that, aren't you?
[15:59:31 ET] Always, I mean, we're seeing earnings, we're wrapping up earnings and it's been really relatively strong we have Goldman saying that Eps growth is tracking.
[15:59:39 ET] At 31% year over year, but the impact of air adoption on corporate earnings remains relatively narrow. so again, the winners are still relatively.
[15:59:47 ET] I would say a small group, but then it's interesting to see the outsized impact that it has Yeah, it continues to have an outsized impact and you reminded us.
[15:59:55 ET] Well is well the headline that we got on anthropic and the 60 billion plus run rate that it's now hitting annual run rate and the anticipated.
[16:00:03 ET] And ahead of that eventual IPO all right, we're getting closer to the closing right now we are looking at declines for a second day for the.
[16:00:11 ET] S&P 500 down half of 1% right now as we hear the protein bells bringing the down industrials also down about half of one.
[16:00:19 ET] Sa the nasdaq, the better performer among the three major indexes down about a third of1 percent and the Russell 2000 of small cap index.
[16:00:27 ET] Mama cap stocks, which had been holding it better than some of the big cap names in the month of July, down about a third of 1% as well Carolroll.
[16:00:35 ET] All right, just going back to the big caps, the S&P 500, definitely more of a risk off trade, no doubt bad at scarlet36.
[16:00:43 ET] The name isabel to the downside as I look at the index 134 to the upside to unchanged and taking a look at the im up.
[16:00:51 ET] Seeing kind of a mixed picture there, actually, oh no, mine was taking a while to load, it's mostly red you're seeing just one bright spot there and that is.
[16:00:59 ET] whichch is trading higher the Carol and Joe are trading lower right guys, let's go to some of the individual gainers if I may.
[16:01:07 ET] Joe has a decliner so I start with Sandisk, this is your number one gainer in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq one.
[16:01:15 ET] Really what we saw you guys mentioned, Isabel and Scarlet, the Anthropic investment we continue or the anthropic.
[16:01:23 ET] Information in terms of its financials and just getting an idea of how big a business it's got and how much growth we are seeing.
[16:01:31 ET] AI link stocks rising after Anthropic told prospective investors that its preliminary second quarter revenue was 11.5 billion.
[16:01:39 ET] number on them so Sandisk, that stock was up almost 9% in today's session, pick your name though.
[16:01:47 ET] Marvel was also a high flyer up about five and a half percent yet had Western digital, that was good for gain of about 5.3%.
[16:01:55 ET] And coherent was up almost 7.8%, so again, keep in mind, yes, it's a theanthropic name, but once again invest.
[16:02:03 ET] Just pushing what has been a common narrative, this broader rally when it comes to memory and storage stock.
[16:02:11 ET] After Sandisk outlined an upbeat multiyear financial outlook, we got that last week, Sandisk continuing to be really.
[16:02:19 ET] High flyer this year, it is a top performing name by a wide margin in the S&P 500, so there's that group, and then I just got to mention space.
[16:02:27 ET] Because we've seen this name top in it Nasdaq 100 today, up about 4 and a5 percent at the close investment firm.
[16:02:35 ET] For ultra wealthy individuals have built up billions of dollars of exposure to SpaceX, somewhere more than a dozen family offices holding a total of at least three.
[16:02:43 ET] 0.8 billion in SpaceX through the first half of 2026 is, according to those U filings, 13 F filings, Harvard2.
[16:02:51 ET] stake some 2.2 billion or nearly 13 million shares. So, you know, even though Spacex has struggled a bit in terms of the.
[16:02:59 ET] Coming off of the IPO, Ultra wealthyy, Harvard, and some others, they definitely want to have a piece of SpaceX.
[16:03:07 ET] it's interesting to see who's holding the stock now versus when it first went public It's a really good point, right.
[16:03:15 ET] moved along a little bit All right, you've got thers I've got thers, I've got a bit of a mixed bag mine doesn't have a theme to it, but we're.
[16:03:23 ET] At eye point shares, they had a record drop today, the drug developer said it's experimental treatment for an eye disease failed to meet.
[16:03:31 ET] A primary goal in its late stage trial, this is called wet age related macular degeneration.
[16:03:39 ET] The thing here was Cantor cut their rating on the company to neutral from overweight, saying that the trialist was quote, a scenario so unlikely.
[16:03:47 ET] In our view that we hadn't even contemplated it in our bull bear base case scenario analysis in our recent initiation.
[16:03:55 ET] It was interesting, they have another trial coming up that doesn't necessarily mean this is the end, so that's one thing to keep an eye on the next is bellies.
[16:04:03 ET] Of course, the casino entertainment company, their shares tumbled the most intraday since February of last year after the company warned investors.
[16:04:11 ET] Of quote substantial doubt that we'll be able to continue as a going concern. Listen, the company reported financial results in the second quarter late.
[16:04:19 ET] Citizens analyst Jordan Bennder noted that the situation doesn't appear dire, but we do not believe the company has the ability to finish all of its projects.
[16:04:27 ET] Without selling or bringing in a development partner at its current leverage levels, so leverage is a massive thing there listen.
[16:04:35 ET] Bendner also noted that they just closed a purchase of Sam'stown for an estimated 30 million, they have a $4 billion downstate New York.
[16:04:43 ET] Casino project in progress, which some folks around here might know about and of course that has a Las Vegas development and finally I'm looking at.
[16:04:51 ET] Blue Airways, the shares dropped as much as 6.7% after seaport global securities cut the recommendation on the airline to neutral from.
[16:04:59 ET] As you know, Carol had been talking a lot about her moves in Iran today, analyst da mKenzie says the balance sheet risk moves to the front burn.
[16:05:07 ET] Without the Strait of Hms open, which is a critical assumption around their upgrade back in April, they know, to be sure.
[16:05:15 ET] Volaatility is a challenge for all, but it's a disproportionate risk to JBluU given the elevated debt levels so that's just one more thing.
[16:05:23 ET] By ratings guys no by ratings 10 holds7 cells as speaking of debt levels, let's talk about the bond market here you lot.
[16:05:31 ET] On the screen a sell off in treasuries, particularly at the long end of the yield curve goes straight to the bottom there for the 30 year yield not the highest.
[16:05:39 ET] 2007 june of 2007 that is before the financial crisis, the ten0 year yield also elevated insofar as it's at the highest level.
[16:05:47 ET] So far this month, it has not retraraced to the highest level that we've seen in ju, but still, that's quite a move.
[16:05:55 ET] And of course the balance of risk seems increasingly tilted towards inflation, persistent inflation all right guys, we've got a great story that's on our radar.
[16:06:03 ET] And it's about thieves stealing from trains, you know, you think of like Westerns, all time Western.
[16:06:11 ET] You think of Jesse James or Bush Cassidy and all that good stuff, turns out, guys, criminals napping more than 200.
[16:06:19 ET] of goods from 75,000 thefts on U. freight rail networks in 2025, according to an industry group that represents some of the big trade.
[16:06:27 ET] Names including csx I mean, they're stealing things, Joee like Nikkes and other stuff Class one railroads back in the news, maybe not for what they want to.
[16:06:35 ET] but having spent a lifetime covering commodities, the number of heists you hear that are similar to this, people putting copper on flatbed trucks and getting.
[16:06:43 ET] In the middle of the night this is a good one that I think anybody would love to read I mean there's some incredible detail in that story where they are also trying to steal cars.
[16:06:51 ET] It's kind of difficult to actually move a car somewhere else and sell it on the black market, so they've kind of resorted to things like computer parts or things are easier.
[16:06:59 ET] Just sell in the gray market. And I think to stave off all of these selling, they're going to try to incorporate or what is the word I'm thinking ofre going.
[16:07:07 ET] Put high techre to more thank you, Carcarla for the GRE lesson, but they're going to integrate more high tech.
[16:07:15 ET] to really maybe catch the thef cameras everywhere and they've like got these massive offenses and everything to prevent people from stealing it, but there's a lot of.
[16:07:23 ET] Cartels ands involved in all this they might try to steal beef go so's thank you car.
[16:07:31 ET] Finally becoming a little too expensive for a American households, we know beef prices have been going up, up, up, up up, and the Trumpmp administration has been doing a lot of work.
[16:07:39 ET] Trying to bring that down, perhaps like opening the door to more imports from Argentina. But it's now come to the point where the growth in.
[16:07:47 ET] Beef has started to fall off a little bit, started to turn over. I mean, we're still eating a lot of beef, but maybe not growing at the same pace as we were before.
[16:07:55 ET] become a treat. I mean, it's pretty shocking sometimes you look at some of the prices and you're just like, my husband does a lot of the shopping. And I think at some point I'm like wait.
[16:08:03 ET] How much is that steak and I'm like, oh my god, you could buy, I don't know, not quite a house, but it feels almost a part of it.
[16:08:11 ET] They're eating chicken now I mean I don't know I guess it depends on who you ask, but some people say chicken is healthier anyway, I mean without all the GMO you.
[16:08:19 ET] I don't know, I saw people at Costco who were holding up some short ribs and saying this one's for the dog, wow.
[16:08:27 ET] Those are the people who are giving their dogs peptides and light treatments and come on the humanization of pets.
[16:08:35 ET] L I stole from this story I thought it was really good my dogs are getting joy kibble, what about you, Joe I currently just have a tolerance to take care of.
[16:08:43 ET] Also also expensive, also expensive, all right guys, that is a wrap our cross platform, radio, TV, YouTube, Bloomberger Ris, we do call it.
[16:08:51 ET] The closing bell Scarlet and Iabel back there on the close on Bloomberg television, Joe and I back here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily folks, we will see you again.
[16:08:59 ET] Same time, same place tomorrow coming up on the close, we've got an assessment of the opportunities across alternatives.
[16:09:07 ET] Movahi he is global alternative strategist at JP Morgan As Management that is coming up next in the second hour of the close right here on bloomberg.
[16:09:15 ET] The.
[16:09:23 ET] The.
[16:09:31 ET] The.
[16:09:39 ET] The.
[16:09:47 ET] The.
[16:09:55 ET] In case you missed it on Bloomberg deals, we're invested in another restaurant, so we're in Shake Shack.
[16:10:03 ET] We're economically one of the larger shareholders, maybe the largest active shareholder. It's several hundred million.
[16:10:11 ET] YouWe're really excited and when you look at the quality of this business, how great a business it is, how much it's growing, how many new stores can open.
[16:10:19 ET] It's just too cheap at Shake Shack are there operational changes that you think that they should be making and that you would push to make don?
[16:10:27 ET] There are massive operational changes, so if you can have among the best returns on a new restaurant build, it makes it easier to justify.
[16:10:35 ET] Building more and more restaurants, what you do it yourself or you have a franchisee do it. So the opportunity here isn't so much operating.
[16:10:43 ET] We think they do a great job there the opportunity is to continue their mid teens growth and accelerate it even further.
[16:10:51 ET] Bberg live every week.
[16:10:59 ET] Are you ready now to go into a growth phase or is this still a business in transition I've been with BPp for four months now Im very pleased with many.
[16:11:07 ET] Things I seen the balance sheet is first and foremost an area of challenge We've got work to do on the portfolio. We're in too many assets we need to sharpen our capital.
[16:11:15 ET] Plan and make sure every dollar that we're spending is making an impact on the bottom line these are the things that will help deliver a step change in performance for BP.
[16:11:23 ET] Don't miss the opening trade live every weekday.
[16:11:31 ET] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day this.
[16:11:39 ET] Is theWelcome back to the close'mlet F.
[16:11:47 ET] Where markets close on the it is another down day for us equities the s& 500 last week closed out a record high today lower by half of 1%.
[16:11:55 ET] But trip makers did not participate in the sell off they were hired for a fourth day in five, 1.6% advance for the philadelphia semiconductor.
[16:12:03 ET] index oil prices are higher and bond yields are higher as well the 30 year yield is now the highest since 2007 before the fight.
[16:12:11 ET] That was really the big headline grabber last week. I feel like everyone was just talking about that because it just really raises questions on what.
[16:12:19 ET] It will mean for the fiscal deficit of the nation and obviously it will be a headache for those in Washington absolutely you've got some movers, individual movers that you're watching.
[16:12:27 ET] I have individual movers. thank you for reminding me so centeen this is a health insurer shares her down after the company reported its CEO drew AshherO.
[16:12:35 ET] Rather plans to retire at the end of 2027 you stock there down by4 and a half percent jetlu Airways we talked about scarlet always.
[16:12:43 ET] Takeakn this when she goes to the West Coast shares are also down actually close even lower by 7 and half%. That's after seaport global security.
[16:12:51 ET] cut its recommendation on the airline to neutral. The analyst over there, D Mckenenzie says the balance sheet risk moves to the front burner.
[16:12:59 ET] The Str of Hms opening and finally Shopify another red, I basically choose all the red losers shares are down by three. a5 percent.
[16:13:07 ET] After ph Securities downgraded the e-com platform to accumulate from buy so price targetet is now $170 from.
[16:13:15 ET] 60All right let's also remind everyone that big headline that we got in the last hour, which is from anthropic on track to generate.
[16:13:23 ET] revenue of more than $65 billion dollars based on its current performance according to people familiar with the matter aI certainly remains a central market.
[16:13:31 ET] With those impressive figures and helping to lift stocks tied to the aI build out our next guest says that the massive funding flowing through.
[16:13:39 ET] Sp is transforming public and private markets joining us live is aon mova hill he is global alternative strategist at jpmgan As management.
[16:13:47 ET] And Aaronin, it goes to the point of all these hyperscalers and hyperscale adjacent companies have a lot of things that they're spending on and they need to.
[16:13:55 ET] Find money to borrow from wherever they can get it, whether it's the public markets or the private markets, and the problem that that creates is for investors.
[16:14:03 ET] They need to work really hard to make sure they're not overly concentrated in tech, whether it's in equities, in public credit or in private credit.
[16:14:11 ET] And it's increasingly a challenge for any kind of investor, if you're investing across the public markets, the private markets, one of the charts in our new guide.
[16:14:19 ET] It is looking across all asset classes and seeing where technology is making up a greater share, and today you look at the public market.
[16:14:27 ET] think we're well aware of the S&P 500, 40 something percent, 47% and our latest analysis is tech, if anything that's an understatement.
[16:14:35 ET] Because it doesn't include some companies that we classify as consumer goods companies that are buying a lot of AI chips, and then in the private markets, we have a lot of announced.
[16:14:43 ET] Since the last couple of weeks of asset managers, private equity, private credit, again, contributing massive amounts of commitments to build out.
[16:14:51 ET] AI data centers, so that's something that technology, not just technology investors, but all investors need to be aware of the technology concentration in markets today.
[16:14:59 ET] And we've already seen some of the damage to private credit funds with a lot of investors trying to redeem their stakes in those.
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