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🇺🇸 美股盘后复盘US Close WrapCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10标签:us_close_wrap
北京时间·🕒 发布 06:12:30时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06:26:21·⚡ 决策 08-20 06:34:23 +8m02s·68.5 天前

Estée Lauder四季度超预期且中国大陆增长最强,提供高端美妆复苏证据但亚洲单股映射边际不足

EL财报和媒体报道确认Q4有机销售增长5%、亚太增长由中国大陆带动,事件方向为正。

📄 原文US Close Wrap美股盘后复盘
# 美股盘后催化 6/12: Estée Lauder四季度超预期且中国大陆增长最强,美容消费复苏出现公司级证据 - 美股会话: 2026-08-19 - 方向: POSITIVE;类型: 财报/指引;规划重大性: 7/10 - 映射模式…
不做 珀莱雅(603605.SH)
EL中国增长对本土美妆是需求复苏与国际品牌竞争并存的混合信号,且A股报价为stale。
不做 上海家化(600315.SH)
仅为行业beta,缺少公司销售、毛利率或库存改善证据,单股edge不足。
不做 中国中免(601888.SH)
EL未拆分旅游零售贡献,且中国中免20日已涨8.90%,免税映射不足。
不做 莎莎国际(01880.HK)
未坐实EL中国大陆增长对香港美妆零售的直接贡献,也未取得可用报价。
不做 资生堂(4911.JP)
同业相关但竞品属性方向不纯,且20日涨9.03%、距52周高点仅5.27%。
不做 爱茉莉太平洋(090430.KS)
近期增长主线不在中国,EL中国强势外溢不足,20日已涨11.19%。

另有 3 腿,见展开详情。

展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

其余 3 腿

不做 LG生活健康(051900.KS)
中国复苏题材7月已报道,20日涨23.27%,本次EL财报新增edge不足。
不做 Cosmax(192820.KS)
虽有EL供应链关系和中国业务改善,但20日涨42.86%、5日涨17.14%,已充分price-in。
不做 Kolmar Korea(161890.KS)
有全球品牌ODM关系但无本次EL订单量级证据,20日涨25.66%且8月19日回落。

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-19 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-05-01前置信号Estée Lauder Q3 release / SEC exhibit一手源原文 ↗
    EL三季报已披露中国大陆高个位数增长并跑赢高端美妆市场,说明中国改善不是首次出现。
  2. 2026-07-28 15:33 KST前置信号ChosunBiz非一手原文 ↗
    韩国媒体已报道中国化妆品零售和韩国对华出口反弹,点名LG H&H、Cosmax、Kolmar Korea受益预期。
  3. 2026-08-19 20:26 UTC扩散AP非一手原文 ↗
    AP报道EL EPS 39美分高于FactSet预期32美分,收入全球增长且中国大陆最强。
    市场反应:EL上涨16.3%。
  4. 2026-08-19扩散Vogue Business非一手原文 ↗
    报道EL Q4有机净销售增长5%、亚太增长9%,中国大陆推动区域增长。

关键理由

  • EL财报和媒体报道确认Q4有机销售增长5%、亚太增长由中国大陆带动,事件方向为正。
  • 中国化妆品复苏在7月韩国媒体和EL三季报中已有前置信号,新增性不足以支撑追买。
  • 多数亚洲候选是行业beta或竞品替代,缺少本次EL中国增长可直接转化为订单或利润的证据。

主要风险

  • 中国增长可能含低基数、促销节点和渠道补库存,不等同于持续终端需求。
  • 国际高端品牌复苏对本土/日韩品牌可能是竞争压力而非纯利好。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-01 · 影响 weakens
    EL三季报已披露中国大陆高个位数增长,Q4不是首次中国改善信号。
    检索:Estée Lauder China growth low base inventory restocking travel retail 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
    中国化妆品复苏和韩国相关受益标的已在7月被报道,新增性不足。
    检索:Korea cosmetics China demand recovery Amorepacific LG H&H Cosmax Kolmar Korea 2026 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-07-10 · 影响 weakens
    Cosmax与EL有供应链关系,但资料只证明伙伴关系,未证明本次中国增长转化为新增订单。
    检索:Cosmax Estee Lauder supplier customer 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2024-06-19 · 影响 weakens
    Kolmar为全球品牌生产的关系存在,但无EL本次中国增长订单量级证据。
    检索:Kolmar Korea Estee Lauder supplier customer 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例缺失降低置信度,支持逐腿AVOID。

方向:无合格先例工具结果,不能把方向性行业读数升级为交易信号。

涨幅量级:无法估计亚洲个股映射幅度。

形态:无可核验模式。

原文全文

展开原文 · 33,638 字
# 美股盘后催化 6/12: Estée Lauder四季度超预期且中国大陆增长最强,美容消费复苏出现公司级证据

- 美股会话: 2026-08-19
- 方向: POSITIVE;类型: 财报/指引;规划重大性: 7/10
- 映射模式: customer_demand
- 美股驱动(规划器初判,需独立核验): 事实:AP称Estée Lauder EPS和收入好于预期,全球收入增长且中国大陆最强;Bloomberg TV称有机销售增长加速至5%,结束年度收入连续三年下降,股价涨约16%。推断:这对中国高端美妆、免税和渠道库存周期有可核实的正面读数。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker;必须联网核实具体 mover。

## 亚太映射假设(仅候选,必须查证)

- 珀莱雅 (待归一) [CN/竞争替代/mixed]: 中国美妆需求改善利好行业总量,但国际高端品牌复苏也可能加剧本土品牌竞争。;核验问题: Estée Lauder中国增长来自补库存、折扣收窄、旅游零售还是终端需求恢复。
- 上海家化 (待归一) [CN/同源本地股/positive]: 若中国美妆消费回暖具有行业性,本土日化美妆公司可能受益于需求和渠道库存改善。;核验问题: 公司近期线上线下销售、毛利率和促销强度是否同步改善。
- ZOZO (待归一) [JP/其它/neutral]: 亚洲美妆/消费复苏情绪可能扩散至日本线上消费平台,但与Estée Lauder中国数据关联弱。;核验问题: 是否有更直接的日本化妆品品牌或百货渠道数据支持。

## 必答问题

- 中国增长是否可持续,还是低基数和渠道补库存?
- 旅游零售与大陆本土销售分别贡献多少?
- 亚洲上市公司中谁与Estée Lauder渠道或竞品份额最直接相关?

## 原始证据全文(3 条)

### [E0001] Bloomberg TV+ · The Close | 2026-08-19 20:14 UTC | 收盘后
Bloomberg TV+ The Close transcript · 2026-08-19
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us
[15:55:05 ET] Because as the 10 year goes up, it's going to cause multiple compression you've already seen some, you're about to see a lot more so let'.
[15:55:13 ET] A little and broaden this out, too, because when we talk about an earnings season that we're almost through, it's been a phenomenal earnings season, but a lot of people are wondering whether we've kind.
[15:55:21 ET] The peak my question for you is more on the value side and the broadening of this earnings growth, which has gone from just, you know the big hyperscale.
[15:55:29 ET] AndviAs and chip makers to now a lot of other people sort of participating in that growth story is that sustainable.
[15:55:37 ET] I there, you know, it's all about leEIs, leading economic indicators, and as long as LeEIs are accelerating and moving upward here, you're going to get a broadening.
[15:55:45 ET] the market so we expect leIs not to peak until roughly this time next year it might be a tad earlier, but through the end of this year if that's your.
[15:55:53 ET] LEIs are going to head up the broadening should occur and value we would expect would expand its lead relative to growth.
[15:56:01 ET] So when we okay, and we've seen that show up in some of the factors that we track on the bloomloomberg terminal, any concerns about seasonality?
[15:56:09 ET] Given that there are a lot of folks that have said, look, not only our repeat earnings, but we might be at some peak valuations, not necessarily long term, but certainly in the short term.
[15:56:17 ET] Some folks have sort of made pretty healthy profits through the first you know six to eight months of the year, how much activity can we really expect in the last you know say three.
[15:56:25 ET] Yeah, I mean, it's a really good question, you know August and September are typically rough times for the market, especially September you look back.
[15:56:33 ET] September is never a great time for the market, we can't worry about that short term we think that over the next six to nine months not only.
[15:56:41 ET] Market going higher and again, we're not calling the market, but we think value is going higher I want to go back to the F I mean washsh is considering cutting the number.
[15:56:49 ET] Meetings from 8 to six, does that make the Fed more thoughtful or less responsive and how do you respond to that as a portfolio manager?
[15:56:57 ET] obviously we're always curious what the Fed has to say, but we're looking at the economic data.
[15:57:05 ET] Reality is when we look at out, we're thinking horizontally about, again, the amount of stimulus that's out there, what Wsh does in a meeting or not.
[15:57:13 ET] Meeting, you know, that's one thing, but it's more important about the economy in the end is what drives everything and the higher economy, the higher.
[15:57:21 ET] Inflation due to the lack of excess capacity that's out there right now, we're very concerned and again, you know with that concern comes value.
[15:57:29 ET] Grow concerned about back to your question about long duration stocks, we think long duration stocks are going to take it on the chin year long duration are the growth stock.
[15:57:37 ET] Hey Elili, great to catch up with you, Elili Salzman may, senior portfolio manager over at Newbergger counting us down to the closing bells with the S.
[15:57:45 ET] 500 isabel just holding on di fractional gains on the day, getting a big bump from Apple and to amazon, but the nasdaq 100 now pours for.
[15:57:53 ET] For straightight day of loss is largely because of that big decline in Nvi. It's really those chip makers dropping once again. We're seeing more gainers and S andP but I mean.
[15:58:01 ET] The mega cap tech talks are the ones dragging them down Ab Pracom and video AMD all in the red to the upside. we've talked a lot about modernder.
[15:58:09 ET] Ete Laer and merck also getting a boost from coininbase and carvana, a full breakdown of all of today's market action starts right now.
[15:58:17 ET] The closing bell, Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage of the U market closed.
[15:58:25 ET] now and right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading daymaine bos here withab Leee.
[15:58:33 ET] Due to that closing bell, it's a global Signcast Carol Masser joins us from the radio booth em Grphao in today for Timtennik, welcome to our audiences.
[15:58:41 ET] Across all of our Bloomberg platforms, television radio, our partnership with YouTube, the S&P 500, trying to recoup some of the losses from the previous.
[15:58:49 ET] Re but only up right now about 15 points or two tenths of 1% yeah i feel like it didn't get much from those fed minutes right that's how we kicked off our two o'clock hour.
[15:58:57 ET] Here on Blueberg business Week daily and those minutes, though did show that many officials said rate hikes may be needed.
[15:59:05 ET] That sounds like Emily, there's a little bit of debate going on there Yeah, there's a debate and at least for the two year yield, it's not really making moves.
[15:59:13 ET] Right now, but a lot of focus today on that flattening, relative flattening in the yield curve and the longer end yields moving lower.
[15:59:21 ET] I was just telling Romaine that Sam Stville said that the bond market is supposed to be quiet and when it's not that's a big deal and it's definitely not, it's certainly been making noise long.
[15:59:29 ET] meals are climbing across the US and other developed markets, France, Germany, and what else there's one country I'm forgetting, but definitely a global movement.
[15:59:37 ET] Yeah, and it kind of sets up kind of this idea and we've been talking about it a lot on the clothes and on the simulcast, just the outsidesized importance that some,
[15:59:45 ET] macro and economic issues are going to start to have on the market relative to what we saw in the first few months of this year where it really it was just about, hey.
[15:59:53 ET] Just look at the AI capex fan and follow that and ride that wave. That might be changing. Yeah, absolutely, I do feel like that narrative around AI.
[16:00:01 ET] Toal continues to and you see it also play out in the trade so big drop in long term yield.
[16:00:09 ET] On this wednesday afternoon that's putting pressure on the dollar, which is down about almost a percent on the day as measured by the bloomberg dollar spot in.
[16:00:17 ET] Well for everything else provide a nice little bit of a boost, most of the equities in the S&P5 are in the green and so the S&P5.
[16:00:25 ET] Fes in the green right around 7708 and change up 17 points or two tons of 1% the dow up of more than 100 points or.
[16:00:33 ET] The Nasdaq composite is up to tenths of 1%, though the nasdaq 100 is down by 2 tenths of 1% in the.
[16:00:41 ET] Geting in on the action. That's actually your relative outperformer up by half a percentage Yeah, kind of interesting to see that I'm going to go back though to the.
[16:00:49 ET] if I may, the S&P 500, you mentioned it remain if I look inside the index, almost an even split is about 200.
[16:00:57 ET] 85 names gaining ground on this wedday 216 to the downside to unchanged it may look like an even split but tech is.
[16:01:05 ET] B loser, you see a big red there tech down by nearly 2% or even more than 2%, and you're seeing also communication services.
[16:01:13 ET] And financials in the red, some of the bright spots, consumer staples, energy materials all higher by something like two1s to three10s.
[16:01:21 ET] Of1% all right guys, let's get to some of the individual gainers, if I may, let's bring up Mona because this one is definitely an outperformer top gainer in fact.
[16:01:29 ET] That we saw in the S&P 500 today that came up 30%, it's up about 375%.
[16:01:37 ET] Year to date,13% of the float is short, I got to check that that that's the year to date, but I'll do that in a moment The stock's biggest interest.
[16:01:45 ET] And check this in advance I did I just, you know, I have to tell you notes's in my notes and then looking at it, I'm like, I just don't even believe it, it's actually up.
[16:01:53 ET] 491% year to date. So there you go. Def outperformance. you've got 13% of the float short. This is happening after the bio.
[16:02:01 ET] company said a personalized cancer vaccine combined with partner mers k Truda helped cut the recurrence of melanoma in a large.
[16:02:09 ET] Late stage trials, so this study provided the strongest evidence yet that messenger RNA technology will have a successful second.
[16:02:17 ET] And the companies will discuss filing for approval with regulators and present the data in an upcoming medical meeting so this provides certainly some tailwinds.
[16:02:25 ET] This company that certainly had its ups and downsestee lader speaking of ups and downs, let's get to that one, this was a top gain or two.
[16:02:33 ET] Among the S&P 500 number two gainer, the stock, actually we're going to bring up bestti la, I don't know if we've got it.
[16:02:41 ET] Maderner, so let me bring upest Lauder on my terminal and S Laer what do you guys do without me so S lauder shares of 16%?
[16:02:49 ET] B day since no of 2011, and I should point out I just had an interview with the CEO of S Laer how he keeps the momentum going.
[16:02:57 ET] To do the rest of the list Okay, thank you very much All right Well, shares jumping after the results beat estimates and ended a run of three straight.
[16:03:05 ET] An annual revenue company reported revenue of 3.6 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter and organic sales growth accelerated to 5% China.
[16:03:13 ET] But this is a company that owns many, many brands and has really struggled, keep in mind the stock is down or at least it was down.
[16:03:21 ET] 74% from a high back in early january of 2022, so still has some room to gain back want mention twist.
[16:03:29 ET] cience and also the life science and tools area T bioscience, you can see up 22% in today's session.
[16:03:37 ET] This company high, rose to its highest, excuse me in more than five years after Anthropic chose the drug developer as one of its.
[16:03:45 ET] ent evaluators to help produce AI design proteins at scale and test these designs for binding interesting.
[16:03:53 ET] do with DNA, so just kind of an interesting trade didn't mean to be sharp with you, Ramaine, I was just, you know, that's all right, you know, it's my first day back.
[16:04:01 ET] I know you obviously have had a rest, I should also mention hyper liquidquid, I think, was also a lot higher, yeah, forgive me.
[16:04:09 ET] My bad you did put that up first, it was up 30% in today's session, and this happened after President Trump said in that meeting with crypto execs.
[16:04:17 ET] That the CFTC chair is working to bring hyper liquidquid to the US and our own stay see Marie Ihmil said that that was a pretty interesting development.
[16:04:25 ET] So again, yeah and this one has been a outperformer this year oh yours all right, let's head to the Decrs, I'm starting with TJX of course this is the parent company.
[16:04:33 ET] Of Tj max home goods it fell today it was down about 4% the clothing retailer reported second quarter comp sales for.
[16:04:41 ET] It'sMarmax segment, which missed estimates, so the Marmax segment is the parent of TJ Max and Marshahal's the names.
[16:04:49 ET] We know well, actually the top line comp sales did beat and the home goods comp sales also beat estimates.
[16:04:57 ET] It's a lot of people going out, buying little figurines of mugs or frames, whatever you can.
[16:05:05 ET] homes, but nevertheless the stock what are you talking about have you ever been in home goods em it's more than just figurines.
[16:05:13 ET] You can get like, oh my God, how dare you pachio, should we tell you no, we have to take you to a teaching man.
[16:05:21 ET] There's so much that there's furniture, no, there's a lot there, but it's a lot of there is this like running joke on TikTok about places.
[16:05:29 ET] hyper specific things that you can only find at homeWhere else am I going to get my live laugh love exactly?
[16:05:37 ET] ton panel with Santa on the side holding it up family means everything those good.
[16:05:45 ET] Gro lower Viking holdings was another decliner the shares down about 8% management of the river.
[16:05:53 ET] Cruz company trying to soothe investor concerns today about the impact of low water levels in the daubbe and rhhine rivers.
[16:06:01 ET] This is an issue that's prompted the cruise line operator to issue vouchers to some travelers, so shareholders not too happy about.
[16:06:09 ET] That kind of update, the company though, did say that about 53% of its capacity for 2027 has been booked while increasing its offering.
[16:06:17 ET] Across river and ocean products by 15%. so this is a luxury consumer signaling at least some resilient demand.
[16:06:25 ET] The luxury side, whereas you think of a TJ Max group, I mean, I feel like that's kind of for everyone, but definitely known to be more on the.
[16:06:33 ET] Ine side, definitely not a luxury product, but both reads from the consumer here maybe not looking too hot at least at today's trade.
[16:06:41 ET] Then finally, white fiber, this is a smaller cap name, it's about just one billion in market cap, but it did fall about 21%.
[16:06:49 ET] They priced a private placement, $270 million of a senior note offering to bill.
[16:06:57 ET] Out AI infrastructure. So this just stood out to me because, again, we're seeing AI companies of all different shape.
[16:07:05 ET] And sizes tapping the debt markets, eventually, you have to see maybe some questions from the equity shareholders about.
[16:07:13 ET] What all of this is needed for well speaking of debt market, so we have to talk about the treasury marketss the big drop that we saw on the long end of the curve down 10 basis.
[16:07:21 ET] 11 basis points excuse me on your 20 year yield, 10 basis points on your 30 year yield, the biggest one day drop that we've seen in yields on the.
[16:07:29 ET] Bond since late june, obviously all of that tied to scott bessen lifting the treasury's buyback cap doubling.
[16:07:37 ET] I should say from 2 billion to 4 billion liquidity measures as he puts it, but obviously a lot of questions right now about just what type of mechanisms.
[16:07:45 ET] using to sort of keep a cap on yields and more importantly why yeah so let's get to some stories that are definitely on our radar.
[16:07:53 ET] Actually, our Alexis Christopherrus talked about it on surveillance this morning, we know the pushback on a lot of the AI data center.
[16:08:01 ET] Well liquidqui Death and Garage beer have launched a campaign called We Want Your P to help AI data centers.
[16:08:09 ET] without using large amounts of water, so it features a video spot with garage beer co owner Jason Kelsey, you know him well.
[16:08:17 ET] his urine in a bottle and singing a song about sending P to data centers before you get upset and you're like, oh my God, what has happened in this world.
[16:08:25 ET] Mine, it's a joke everybody, but they just obviously, I would hope so we live in an interesting time romaine.
[16:08:33 ET] Well, so we're giving them a lot of attention for our radio viewers they're walking through a meadow right now with a farmer and a skateboard for some reason all holding up.
[16:08:41 ET] Large bottles of their own liquids but fake straw, one of them had a tumbler with a straw.
[16:08:49 ET] Some on a mobility scooter you get that through a well I should put out this story by arick also just points out that about7 out of 10merican opposed data.
[16:08:57 ET] being built in their community, so it's kind of having some fun with this just reminding everybody of the impact Id never thought I'd talk about this as a markets report.
[16:09:05 ET] But there's the first time for everything we talk about everything hereburg no doubt about it, all right guys, that is a wrap welcome back romaine we did kind of.
[16:09:13 ET] Our cross platform, radio TV, YouTube, Bloomberg originals, we do call it the closing bell Iabella and remainmaine, they're on the close on Bloomberg television.
[16:09:21 ET] And em and I back here on Blueberg Business Week daily, we will see you again same time, same place tomorrow.
[16:09:29 ET] When we come back, our coverage continues here on the close, a closer look at that big decision by the Treasury with regards to its buybacks and exactly.
[16:09:37 ET] How the market is now starting to price this new Treasury department in we're going to catch up with Greg Peters over at PGM when we come back after the break right here.
[16:09:45 ET] this is Bloomberg.
[16:09:53 ET] The.
[16:10:01 ET] The.
[16:10:09 ET] The.
[16:10:17 ET] The.
[16:10:25 ET] Western countries, all of them.
[16:10:33 ET] Aing funding to Africa and some of these programs were supported by funding coming from Western countries.
[16:10:41 ET] Like for human resources, for testing, for transportation of samples.
[16:10:49 ET] ly, African countries has to think how to fund money and to cover this gap.
[16:10:57 ET] But it takes some time and I think the community all all of these factors are fueling this mistrust that we see.
[16:11:05 ET] Com levelWe value the support we got, and we are still getting from the US and.
[16:11:13 ET] We think that if we continue to work together and there is no reason for the US not to work with Africa CDC, Africa CDC is the leader.
[16:11:21 ET] In terms of public health in Africa.
[16:11:29 ET] 'm da i'm lisa and i'mris Raffiti for tracking breaking news today from wall street to washington.
[16:11:37 ET] the hope is this will open up new markets and provide some additional liquidity Of course now they're going to have We got a big week coming up in politics.
[16:11:45 ET] Season underway we're going to get some key reports everything you need to know before the markets open on monday this weekend.
[16:11:53 ET] Little bloomloberg into your weekend routine.
[16:12:01 ET] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end.
[16:12:09 ET] This is the back to the close.
[16:12:17 ET] And our remain boss markets just closed about 12 minutes ago the s&P trying to shake off the doldrums from the past three days.
[16:12:25 ET] Only finishing higher by about two tenths of a percent on the day, but that still cleans it back above that 7700 mark the philphia.
[16:12:33 ET] index down for a second straight day and we' got to talk about what we're seeing in the yield space and the dollar as well your 30 year yield dropping about 10.
[16:12:41 ET] Bas points on the day we're going to get back to that story in just a second isabel and then you see the dollar also taking a leg down the biggest drop that we saw for the blue.
[16:12:49 ET] Dollar spot index in about three weeks remember it had been on a pretty significant uptrend back in may and june and then by the time you got to mid to late.
[16:12:57 ET] It really started that downtrend and that accelerated today with that announcement by the treasury and to your point, remain earlier that the story of the.
[16:13:05 ET] Is really just the bond market, everything is about the bond market and this comes just two weeks after releasing the plan schedule for buybacks for this quarter and the treasury set.
[16:13:13 ET] Increasing by at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations, so definitely big news out there roine so maybe we did get.
[16:13:21 ET] movers under the hood we're looking at carvana we have shares closing the day in the green after the airport showed that mark ws day in the company was.
[16:13:29 ET] This means he wouldn't be able to immediately sell them as he contends with a federal approve of his investment empire, Mo also shares jump.
[16:13:37 ET] That's after the company said a personalized cancer vaccine combined with merck helped cut the recurrence of melanoma in the late.
[16:13:45 ET] and last target shares, or should I say Taj Romaine theyre in the green after the retailers comparable sales and adjusted EP.
[16:13:53 ET] Yes, for the second quarter beat expectations All right, let's turn back to what we're seeing today in the treasury market because that.
[16:14:01 ET] our top story and it is that fresh attempt to rein in long term borrowing calls from multiy highs scott besson and the U. treasury set the ramp.
[16:14:09 ET] back starting early next month of long data government debt, saying it's increasing by at least double the size liquidity measure.
[16:14:17 ET] As he said, and that's going to focus a lot on the 10 to 30 year sector, the move comes just two weeks after the department release its plan schedule for buybacks this quarter.
[16:14:25 ET] As long dated bond yields around the globe rose to significant levels this week, the U.. 30 year right now still camped out around its highest level.
[16:14:33 ET] Since 2007,greg peters joins us right now co CIO of public and private fixed income over at Pgm Greg, great to see you here.
[16:14:41 ET] Okay, what was your reaction this morning when you heard about this Well, I wasn't surprised that what I think the be right that threat was out there?
[16:14:49 ET] For a while, I think market participants knew that this administration would look to doing things that are unconventional.
[16:14:57 ET] was definitely on the table. But I think the real question is, what does it mean for kind of long term viability, So there's a difference.

### [E0002] AP Financial Markets | 2026-08-19 20:26 UTC | 收盘后
US stocks halt their slide after the Treasury Department moves to ease pressure from the bond market
URL: https://apnews.com/article/stocks-futures-bonds-oil-inflation-trump-ai-9e355be634e4a21059fc1d1f20a1239e
US stocks halt their slide after the Treasury Department moves to ease pressure from the bond market
US stocks halt their slide after the Treasury Department moves to ease pressure from the bond market
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury Department announced a move that could ease pressure coming from the bond market. Strong profit reports for the spring from Estee Lauder, Target and other U.S. companies also helped support Wall Street.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% for its first gain in four days after setting its all-time high last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 119 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite ticked 0.2% higher.
Financial markets have come under growing strain as Treasury yields charged higher through the summer on worries about inflation, big government debts and other factors. That makes borrowing money more expensive for everyone, which slows the economy and undercuts prices for stocks and other investments.
But Treasury yields fell in the morning after the U.S. Treasury Department said it will at least double the size of its planned purchases of longer-term Treasurys from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The department said it’s doing so “to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants.”
These longer-term 10- and 30-year Treasurys are less beholden to the Federal Reserve, which can raise or lower very short-term interest rates for overnight loans. President Donald Trump has lobbied for the Fed to lower interest rates to help the economy.
Longer-term yields are set instead by investors in the bond market, who decide how much interest they need to get paid by the U.S. government in exchange for lending it money. And recently, they have been demanding more in interest to make up for the growing risks of high inflation, continued government deficits and other factors.
U.S. stocks are higher in early trading.
After the Treasury department’s announcement, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.64% from 4.71% late Tuesday. It, though, remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran sent oil prices and worries about inflation much higher.
The 30-year Treasury yield, which recently touched its highest level since 2007, fell more sharply to 5.18% from 5.28% late Tuesday.
The relief could be short lived, some analysts warn. The amount of bonds the U.S. Treasury is proposing to repurchase is a fraction of the overall total.
“The boost to buybacks is also happening in a world of challenged Fed credibility,” according to strategists at BNP Paribas. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate soon to match the tough talk its chairman, Kevin Warsh, has been offering on getting inflation down toward its 2% target.
“We do not believe buybacks will be enough to offset a continued loss in Fed credibility,” the BNP Paribas strategists wrote in a report, calling them “necessary, but not sufficient.”
On Wall Street, Moderna and Merck helped lead the market after they announced encouraging initial results from a study of a cancer vaccine they co-developed. The new drug showed better recurrence-free survival in melanoma patients who had a combination of it and Keytruda, a prescription immunotherapy drug made by Merck, than with Keytruda alone.
Moderna soared 177%, while Merck jumped 12.6%.
The continuing parade of U.S. companies reporting bigger profits for the spring than analysts expected, meanwhile, continues to support stocks.
Estee Lauder rallied 16.3% after CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said a key measure of its revenue growth accelerated for a fourth straight quarter. It reported growth in revenue around the world, with the strongest in mainland China.
The skin care company reported earnings per share of 39 cents, after excluding some restructuring and other one-time expenses. That’s up from just 9 cents a year earlier and was better than the 32 cents that analysts expected, according to FactSet.
Such growth is imperative because stock prices tend to follow the path of corporate profits over the long term. And strong growth helps allay criticism that stock prices shot too high in their runs to records.
Target rose 4.3%, Lowe’s added 2% and homebuilder Toll Brothers climbed 4% after they all reported better profits for the latest quarter than expected.
They helped offset drops for some Big Tech stocks, which restrained the overall market.
Broadcom fell 4.6% and was the heaviest weight on the S&P 500. It and other winners of the artificial-intelligence boom have been swinging sharply through the summer on worries that their stocks may have shot too high and that the AI frenzy may not be sustainable if it doesn’t produce big-enough profits.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 16.22 points to 7,707.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 119.65 to 53,463.05, and the Nasdaq composite added 41.38 to 26,331.09.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mostly lower in Asia and mixed in Europe.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 sank 3.2%. South Korea’s Kospi, which has been home to some of the world’s sharpest swings because of its heavy reliance on AI stocks, slumped 5.8%.
___
AP Writers Michelle Chapman, Chan Ho-him, Mike Stobbe and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed to this report.

### [E0003] Bloomberg Markets Wrap | 2026-08-19 22:12 UTC | 收盘后
Asian Stocks to Gain as US Treasury Supports Bonds: Markets Wrap
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Asian stocks were set to rebound, tracking Wall Street’s broad gains after US officials said they plan to boost buybacks of longer dated Treasuries to help ease borrowing costs following a surge in yields to near multi-decade highs.

A rally in 30-year Treasuries drove yields down 10 basis points to 5.18% during the New York session, helping push the dollar to a three-month low. Gold climbed to its highest level since early June as yields fell. Oil held a four-day run of gain with US futures trading near $85 a barrel, while Bitcoin jumped as Trump pressed Congress to pass a key crypto bill as the White House hosted industry executives.

US equity-index futures edged higher in early Thursday trading after most S&P 500 shares advanced on Wednesday, even as chipmakers declined. Futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia indicated gains at the open, setting up a broader regional gauge to snap two days of losses.

Elevated yields have kept borrowing costs high, weighing on growth and posing a political risk for President Donald Trump and Republicans ahead of the November midterms. Bonds have sold off as investors sought greater compensation for inflation risks, leaving markets focused on whether the Treasury’s latest move can tame yields.

“There is no question that the Administration has become very concerned about the bond market once again and thus they are giving it another injection of steroids,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. This is something that could “buoy risk assets over the near-term,” he added, unless investors see it as a sign of weakness.

The announcement came after long-dated government yields surged globally this week, with the US 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. A 10-year Treasury auction last week drew the highest financing cost for that maturity since 2007, while a 30-year sale a day later cleared at the highest yield since 2001.

While the Treasury didn’t indicate how the operations would be paid for, it typically relies on issuance of bills for its fluctuating funding needs. If officials are in effect replacing longer-dated debt with short-term securities, the maneuver amounts to a version of the Federal Reserve’s “Operation Twist.”

“This administration needs a win, and maybe that comes in the form of artificially trying to keep long Treasury rates contained,” said Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “They have to try something. Sentiment around the long-end globally is about as bearish as I have seen in a very long time.”

US earnings season continued with several consumer-focused companies reporting results. TJX Cos. pulled back despite better-than-expected comparable sales as a new plan to ramp up store openings shook investors. Meanwhile, Target Corp. gained as the retailer lifted its full-year guidance following better-than-expected results.

In Asia, traders will be watching SK Hynix Inc. after the South Korean memory-chip maker unveiled plans to buy back 40 trillion won ($29 billion) of shares and return more profits to investors. The company is seeking to stabilize its stock after a decline of more than 50% in two months.

Investors are also digesting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which showed several officials favored raising interest rates last month and many thought further tightening may be needed if inflation failed to cool. However, uncertainty hung over the meeting as participants’ inflation outlooks were clouded by the Iran war.

“Most participants anticipated that inflation would step down over the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases wane, but many participants noted the possibility that inflation might be more persistently elevated,” the minutes said.

Corporate Highlights:

A personalized vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. and Merck & Co. reduced the recurrence of melanoma in a large, late-stage trial, raising expectations for treating the deadliest form of skin cancer and showing the promise of the embattled mRNA technology.Moderna shares spiked by a record 177%, though the stock remains well short of its Covid-era highs. Merck climbed 13%. Marvell Technology Inc. has agreed to give Alphabet Inc.’s Google rights to buy as much as $12.2 billion of its shares in exchange for purchasing chips. Estée Lauder Cos.’s results beat estimates and ended a run of three straight declines in annual revenue, a sign the beauty conglomerate’s turnaround efforts are gaining momentum.

For a list, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:08 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures rose 0.9% S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.3%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% The euro was little changed at $1.1679 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.07 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7309 per dollar The Australian dollar was unchanged at $0.7125

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $69,617.29 Ether rose 2.7% to $2,277.79

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,520.87 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化,不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序;用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选;逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in;候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。

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