Deere上调全年利润指引下限并称早订和库存指标改善，但核心大农机仍下滑且EPS受关税退款一次性支撑

# 美股盘后催化 9/11: Deere上调全年利润展望下限并称早订项目改善，农机周期出现复苏线索

- 美股会话: 2026-08-20
- 方向: POSITIVE；类型: 财报/指引；规划重大性: 6/10
- 映射模式: competitive
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：Bloomberg TV+称Deere位列标普500涨幅前列，涨近7%，公司上调年度利润展望下限，称早期订单项目趋势、库存、二手设备和先进技术采用改善，三季度盈利也受关税退款帮助而超预期；Bloomberg Markets Wrap也提到Deere因机械订单改善而上涨。推断：这是农业机械需求触底或补库的单名线索，可向日本农机和部分机械同业做相对映射。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker；必须联网核实具体 mover。

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 久保田 (待归一) [JP/竞争替代/positive]: 美国农业机械订单改善可能改善全球农机需求预期，久保田作为农机同业或受情绪传导。；核验问题: 核实久保田北美农机敞口、库存和订单趋势。
- 小松制作所 (待归一) [JP/竞争替代/mixed]: 设备周期复苏可能支持工程机械情绪，但Deere农机与小松工程机械终端不同。；核验问题: 核实农业、建筑和矿山设备周期是否同步。
- 中联重科 (待归一) [CN/竞争替代/mixed]: 全球机械订单改善可作装备板块风险偏好参考，但中国内需和出口结构不同。；核验问题: 核实海外农机/工程机械收入和北美敞口。

## 必答问题

- Deere利润展望改善中，关税退款的一次性贡献有多大？
- 订单改善是否覆盖大型农机还是局部产品线？

## 原始证据全文（2 条）

### [E0001] Bloomberg TV+ · The Close | 2026-08-20 20:14 UTC | 收盘后
Bloomberg TV+ The Close transcript · 2026-08-20
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us
[15:55:03 ET] Their shares so again, it's not it's not Goldilocks, but we are in a bull market, we're early in the bull market if you look based on his.
[15:55:11 ET] And what we know from the 90s is that you could have higher interest rates coexist with robust stock price total return.
[15:55:19 ET] I think that is what we will see in the coming years now as earning season is starting to wind down and the attention is really returning back to the macro.
[15:55:27 ET] Data following the recent weaker then expected jobs reports. So where do you see the kind of most notable disconnect in.
[15:55:35 ET] Well, I do think that the jobs numbers, we put a lot of emphasis on these numbers, but in fact, they're.
[15:55:43 ET] revised and they've been pretty wrong for a very long period of time. So what we know is that people are still working.
[15:55:51 ET] And they're still spending, for the most part, unemployment rate declined due to a decline in the participation rate, but this is a pretty benign environment for jobs.
[15:55:59 ET] So I think what we have to continue to focus on is inflation and again, the numbers are fraught because some of them are.
[15:56:07 ET] ulated in the government data, so we focus on a number that's produced by true inflation, and then we look at the sticky.
[15:56:15 ET] non sticky CPI from the Atlanta Fed and other metrics, and I think that's what we're going to continue to watch because we are hearing from the.
[15:56:23 ET] That fuel prices are going to impact not all companies, but some of the retailers in particular will impact.
[15:56:31 ET] The margins in the second half of the year, so that's what we're watching and we'll continue to to stay on fuel.
[15:56:39 ET] Yeah, I think we're all on fuel watch whether we're investors or not, I am curious though about just your sort of overall take on.
[15:56:47 ET] Earning season, I mean, by any sort of reasonable metric, I mean, this was a phenomenal quarter, pretty much all around, at least in aggregate.
[15:56:55 ET] But there's a lot of concerns as to whether we might have sort of reached sort of a peak growth rate, certainly on the revenue side, maybe even on the profitability side.
[15:57:03 ET] That even if there is like a gl down to a reversion to the mean for lack of a better phrase, that that will be more orderly and investors will be able to.
[15:57:11 ET] Well, I think in the short term again, Remane, I mean, you nailed the right question, you will see volatility as earnings.
[15:57:19 ET] And they ultimately will I just go back to looking at a name like Microsoft when we started paying attention to the print on.
[15:57:27 ET] And it went from the 90s in terms of percent growth down to where it currently is around 30.
[15:57:35 ET] That it takes a transition, the growth guys, the hedge fund guys, a lot of times they exit when earnings decelerate, and so you need the value.
[15:57:43 ET] Investors to step in or at least a new constituent, so I think there will be disruption around potentially decelerating earnings.
[15:57:51 ET] I just don't think we're there yet, I think we have a few more quarters, maybe even a couple of years of continued at least at.
[15:57:59 ET] Maybe not acceleration of earnings growth, but at current levelsNancy always a pleasure, Nancyancy Tangler, CEOo and CIO of La1.
[15:58:07 ET] Investments counting us down to those closing bells, which are just about two minutes away and as we speak stocks now taking a leg down hitting session.
[15:58:15 ET] As we move closer to those closing bells, a full breakdown of all of today's action starts now.
[15:58:23 ET] Closing be Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage of the US market close starts right now.
[15:58:31 ET] AndRight now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day, Romayine Baick here with Sally bakewell taking you through to that closing bell' a.
[15:58:39 ET] ICarol Maer joins us from the radio booth Emily Grphao in today for ti snik, welcome to our audiences across all of our bloomloberg platform.
[15:58:47 ET] Television radio, our partnership with you here on a thursday afternoon where bond yields are up and stocks are down in fact car mass' stock.
[15:58:55 ET] As we speak hitting session lows Yeah, exactly, I was just looking at another leg to the downside, I just keep thinking about some of these retail earnings that.
[15:59:03 ET] Go Walmart, certainly a bit of a sales slowdown so you wonder what that says about the consumer, we talked to Putum Goyle of our Bloomberg intelligence team.
[15:59:11 ET] She said that underlying the information, actually some of it didn't look so bad yeah, I mean when you think about higher rates.
[15:59:19 ET] Something that can crimp consumers, we talked about mortgage rates also earlier in our show, and it's something that people watch and you can see those.
[15:59:27 ET] Economically sensitive parts of the stock market getting hit the most today, like you said remain the dow and the Russell 2000 as well and if you take a look at the.
[15:59:35 ET] I map function on the terminal. There's a whole lot of red for the S& P 500. It's been a day where the market has navigated.
[15:59:43 ET] ugA number of forces, including long term bond yields and a number of fiscal milestones and we talk about the consumer.
[15:59:51 ET] well, I mean, and obviously those results out of Walalmart, we were talking with Michaelcha Lass over at UBS, he was a little more optimistic saying this is probably a bit of a one off.
[15:59:59 ET] We are going to get another read on the consumer with raw stores after the bell tonight and maybe it provides a little bit more clarity, maybe it doesn't.
[16:00:07 ET] Overall investors well, just pulling back just a little bit, we should point out as typically this time of year in mid Augustust volume is.
[16:00:15 ET] light, but that jump that we saw in bond yields up about five basis points on that 30 year yield taking a little bit of a bite.
[16:00:23 ET] Out of the equity market, the dow Jones industrial average losing about 686 points or 1.3% the s& 500 down.
[16:00:31 ET] 66 points or nine tenths of a percent on the day the nasdaq composite down a full percentage point on the day while the nasq 100.
[16:00:39 ET] About7 tenths of a percent the rus 2000 that's going to close in the red down about 40 points or 1.3% right.
[16:00:47 ET] I go S&P 500, definitely more of a riskkoff trade, no surprise perhaps there, you did see Sally 342 names.
[16:00:55 ET] The S&P 500 lower on this Thursday, 157 to the upside for un change you've got the IAP, which is such a great visual always.
[16:01:03 ET] It is a great visual and again, it is looking pretty red with energy being the only sec where we're seeing a little bit of a green lifting it by about 0.4.
[16:01:11 ET] 5% information technology down about 0.45 and financials down about 0.88 and of course, consumer stay.
[16:01:19 ET] by about 1.8 as we had the very tough Walmart earnings where they posted disappointing sales.
[16:01:27 ET] Well, I just started to interrupt Carol, but I mean speaking of Walmart, we are getting those earnings out of raw stores, obviously a much smaller player, but still one that ist.
[16:01:35 ET] Significant read on the consumer, the second quarter numbers show the eps coming in at about $2.66 per.
[16:01:43 ET] Well above street estimates of a dollar excuse let me correct that that versus a year ago when it had a dollar.
[16:01:51 ET] share so an increase in eps on a year over year basis net sales in the most recent quarter that did.
[16:01:59 ET] slightly above estimates 6.26 billion the street on average was looking for about 6.16 we' round that up to about6.
[16:02:07 ET] 2So 13% growth on sales just slightly above estimates yeah very interesting this has definitely been an outperformer this year.
[16:02:15 ET] Shares of Ross stores are up about 27% year to date, we're seeing another pop to the upside we just talked with our market guests.
[16:02:23 ET] Skyler Win over at Rean Capital, this was the name that he actually likes, he thinks it's of a retailer that plays her.
[16:02:31 ET] Sector and actually has been doing fairly well and was kind of looking forward to earnings here it's been on fire, it's up 27% this year.
[16:02:39 ET] On fire and it looks like that optimism is going to continue the company now saying they're raising their outlook for both the third and the fourth quarters.
[16:02:47 ET] At least in the previous quarter, the growth was supported by an increase in new customers and higher engagement from existing customers.
[16:02:55 ET] In the prior quarter Rued pretty well with the 18 to 24 year old crowd, the sort of Gen Z who were under pressure from inflation.
[16:03:03 ET] going down into the off price retailer, Yeah tell me about it Sally right, is that because you're shopping there or you're shopping for someone there?
[16:03:11 ET] 'm not that all right, let's get to some of the gainers guys, you know, risk off to rate certainly in the equity.
[16:03:19 ET] We saw rates going up, you know it was interesting, some outperformance check out Bitcoin as high as 72.
[16:03:27 ET] $949 at its high right, so I know you should check on your Bitcoin see what it's worth now, buddy.
[16:03:35 ET] YeahYou know you and Matt Miller what's up you password Well, you know that's why you write them down or you do something.
[16:03:43 ET] Some crypto players certainly in the space riding high as a result, let's not forget, though, president's meeting.
[16:03:51 ET] Cs and lobbyists that has given this sector some momentum over the last two days, so let's go through it strategy up 7.
[16:03:59 ET] 8% top in the Nasdaq 100 in the past two days alone, we've seen it up about 20% still down about 7.
[16:04:07 ET] 6% from us all time high back in late 2024, but nonetheless, some out performance again with strategy, coin based global up.
[16:04:15 ET] .6%And then you also had a circle internet group, that one, a six and a half% gain, and then move it on over to Galaxy Digital.
[16:04:23 ET] That went up about 7.2% again, so that sector really has had a very strong bullish two day run here and.
[16:04:31 ET] Something different, something simpler, dear top8 in the S&P 500, you can see that one up almost 7% in today's session.
[16:04:39 ET] Manufacturtureive tractors raising the lower end of its annual profit outlook, citing improvement in early order program trends, inventories.
[16:04:47 ET] Used equipment and adoption of its advanced technologies it also em posted third quarter earnings at beat helped by a tariff refund right well we're going to stay on the.
[16:04:55 ET] ers for the beginning of my declineers because I'm starting with Walmart, that stock closing down 9% today, it's again, a mixed bag.
[16:05:03 ET] For all of these consumer facing companies, at least for this quarter for Walmart, the shareholders just weren't happy with the results they did report.
[16:05:11 ET] TheLowest u.. sales growth in six years sales at u.. stores opened at least a year, excluding fuel rose 2.6% in.
[16:05:19 ET] Second quarter that was shy of even the lowest analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg and the big box retailers said it was hindered primarily by pricing pressure.
[16:05:27 ET] In its pharmacy business. So again, that stock falling about 9% Moderna falling now it did have.
[16:05:35 ET] Record day yesterday, but everything that goes up, I guess has to come down that stock finishing the day down 24%.
[16:05:43 ET] The biggest full day drop on record, but of course this is coming after yesterday's 177% climb stemming from a cliff.
[16:05:51 ET] when shares of the drug maker had basically more than doubled after the company said that a cancer vaccine cut the recurrence of.
[16:05:59 ET] in a large late stage trial, but again, that stock, maybe some investors taking some profits here, finally, SpaceX.
[16:06:07 ET] Now about flat from its IPO, it did drop about 4% today today, a second tranche of the stock was released.
[16:06:15 ET] From a post initial public offering lockup period, so a couple people that we're in are now trying to get out.
[16:06:23 ET] Just a little bit of our earnings and a look at the market trade we'll see what tomorrow will bring that is our cross platform, radio TV, YouTube Bloomberg originals.
[16:06:31 ET] and remainma of course finishing up there on the close on TV and Emily and I back here on Blueloomberg Business Week D, we will see you again same time, same.
[16:06:39 ET] Toor and we move from the cash market to the post market and take a look at shares of raw stores.
[16:06:47 ET] Our higher in the after hours trade we're going to break down those earnings when we come back after the break with Dana Telsey right here on the close here.
[16:06:55 ET] The.
[16:07:03 ET] The.
[16:07:11 ET] The.
[16:07:19 ET] The.
[16:07:27 ET] The.
[16:07:35 ET] In case you missed it on Bomberg open Inter stellar quarter for exits.
[16:07:43 ET] The conversation for this industry, especially private equity had been, it's gummed up, there's a dam that needs to break has the dam.
[16:07:51 ET] Boke or is this just Carllile doing a good job of selling we have G it's in the quarter from Japan, from Europe technology, from U. real estate.
[16:07:59 ET] And our U. buyout team, they've distributed 23% of fair market value over the last 12 months that's twice the industry.
[16:08:07 ET] So for us it's more of the same capital markets are open. It's a good environment and we're finding great opportunities to exit and to invest.
[16:08:15 ET] betweeners and sellers does that mean when you exit, you're having to take down valuations we're finding buyers both in the M.
[16:08:23 ET] We've also had very successful IPOs in the past year, so we're really taking all opportunities to realize investments.
[16:08:31 ET] We think it's the right time, don't miss open interest live weekdays.
[16:08:39 ET] I'm da i'm li mat and i'mrisine Raffitti we're tracking breaking news today from wall street to washington.
[16:08:47 ET] The hope is this to open up new markets and provide some additional liquidity of course now they're going to have a week coming up in politics season.
[16:08:55 ET] We're going to get some key everything you need to know before the markets open on Mondayday this weekend little.
[16:09:03 ET] again to your weekend routine.
[16:09:11 ET] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day.
[16:09:19 ET] This is the clothesWel back to the close let's take a look at shares of Ross story.
[16:09:27 ET] in the after hour trade up about 4%, the company just now reporting its earnings and the retailer, well, it's impressing on a lot of levels.
[16:09:35 ET] Com sales in the most recent quarter up about 10% also guided for the third quarter saying the comp sales.
[16:09:43 ET] G at about 6 to 7% the average street estimates was for 3% dana telsi joins us right now the ceo and chief.
[16:09:51 ET] Offfficer at telsey advisory group there was a quarter that just was daa which was good, but for a company to basically say we.
[16:09:59 ET] L by double what the street was looking for for the current quarter, what's going on.
[16:10:07 ET] Has put in place a very effective strategy by increasing inventory, enhancing their assortment of good, better and best.
[16:10:15 ET] remodeleling stores, they've really been able to capture new customers and look what the comp was driven by, it was driven by traffic.
[16:10:23 ET] After a 17% comping Q1 a 10% comp in Q2 they're moving in the right direction when you say traffic.
[16:10:31 ET] New or just the existing customers going in more I think with comps like this, I think you're getting a bit of botht.
[16:10:39 ET] Double digit comps two quarters in a row with only existing it's got to be a mix of both and you're also seeing the goodness.
[16:10:47 ET] rgins too come through and by raising the guidance, the third quarter seems to be off to a strong start well give some sense here.
[16:10:55 ET] With regards to some of the changes that have been made there, because for a while, Ross was kind of struggling and it was kind of one of those retailers that you didn't really know where they.
[16:11:03 ET] FitI mean I know they're kind of discount, but why go there as opposed to say a Cols or a tj x or something like that here.
[16:11:11 ET] What is the identity of raw stores now, what is the customer that they're going for i think they've updated their identity when jim came in.
[16:11:19 ET] a growth CEOo, he invested in marketing, he invested in remodeling the store, he's getting younger customers he's getting.
[16:11:27 ET] Even some customers who are their existing customers who are coming back more frequently, he has basically updated the assortment.
[16:11:35 ET] In apparel where he has made strong headwinds into getting more more brand names it's not just better merchandise.
[16:11:43 ET] On the better brands, it's across the platform and the other thing that is going to come going forward with the uptick in the number of news.
[16:11:51 ET] Os northeast, i think he's going to accelerate his rate of store openings in the northeast and he has more new customers.
[16:11:59 ET] talk a little bit about that I mean the number of stories went up slightly and i just point i mean obviously i'm in my little bubble here in Manhattanttan.
[16:12:07 ET] You don't really see too many raw stores around, but where is, I mean, where are they sort of geographically looking, I mean in terms of like, is it suburban area?
[16:12:15 ET] urbanSo overall they have over 40% of their stores in Californiania, they're now coming to the northeast.
[16:12:23 ET] See them go to some of the suburban areas more so than the urban areas and so far we've heard about some of the stores they've opened in the northst.
[16:12:31 ET] In the suburbs, they've performed a little bit better than expected, so i don't think it's a surprise that they're taking up their rate of newto.
[16:12:39 ET] Dana, before we let you go, I do just have to get your thoughts about TjX because there was a lot of talk about why the quarter was relative.
[16:12:47 ET] We and the idea that there might have been some missteps with regards to their merchandise selection do you have any insights as of what happened?
[16:12:55 ET] The comp store sales at marmax, that tj max and marshall's division were below expectations at 1 percent self inted.
[16:13:03 ET] Exution issue is that has how they're terming it one of the interesting takeaways is the fact that when they looked at their sales performance in store.
[16:13:11 ET] N competitors and those not near competitors, they perform the same so to me what that says is it was an execution.
[16:13:19 ET] IssueThis happened years ago at tj they course corrected it and they're expecting comms to return at least to the.
[16:13:27 ET] 2 to3% level in the fourth quarter, I think they have top attention to this both from the CEO on down at Tj.
[16:13:35 ET] And there's a strong very strong company with great vendor relationships, I don't think you count tJ out I think they continue.
[16:13:43 ET] Work given look at the comps you saw of 6 to 7%, both at home goods and in their international businesses of international.
[16:13:51 ET] And can all right, dana, i'll let you go here I know there calls about to get started there, dana telsey CEOo and chief research office.
[16:13:59 ET] Over at telsey advisory group, those earnings out of Ross are out and the conference call is set to start in a matter of moments.
[16:14:07 ET] Before we continue here on the retail space, I do just want to bring a quick headline in the world of AI, and that involves broadcom, the chip maker.
[16:14:15 ET] Now we're learning based on bloomberg reporting that the company plans is in talks with a group of lenders to raise more than $60 billion.
[16:14:23 ET] And debt for an AI chip financing deal that will actually benefit anthropic and other companies that's according to people familiar with the situation that.
[16:14:31 ET] on condition of anonymity, we'll try to get you some more details on that not much movement there in the stock there is a lot of movement though on rust.
[16:14:39 ET] We're now up about 5% here on the day and maybe an interesting counterweight to what we saw earlier in the day out of Walmart, which of course, was to the downside.
[16:14:47 ET] Mary Ross gilbert, is a senior analyst over at bloomberg intelligence covering retailers mar let's start with Ross here heard daa.
[16:14:55 ET] This seems to be more about execution, management execution rather than just sort of you secular trends here, give me a sense here of now.

### [E0003] Bloomberg Markets Wrap | 2026-08-20 22:05 UTC | 收盘后
Asian Stocks Set to Fall as Bonds Resume Decline: Markets Wrap
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Stocks in Asia were set to drop after US equities fell as oil prices and benchmark bond yields climbed, with investors betting that the Treasury’s efforts to contain borrowing costs may offer only a temporary reprieve.

Thirty-yearUS bond yields rose even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagged scope for larger debt buybacks and an upcoming fiscal plan. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%, with Walmart Inc. sinking the most since 2022 after disappointing sales. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7% for a fifth straight loss. Equity-index futures pointed to declines at the open in Japan, South Korea and Australia, while US contracts were little changed in early trading.

Brent crude jumped as much as 3.4% to nearly $95 a barrel on Thursday, its highest in almost four weeks, after President Donald Trump threatened Iran with “economic warfare” and said Tehran had failed to accept a deal. The dollar strengthened, while Bitcoin topped $72,000.

The moves in bonds extended a volatile stretch on Wall Street as a series of Treasury decisions underscored growing concern over elevated long-term yields. The 10-year yield ended Thursday six basis-points higher at 4.70%, with US bonds paring the gains they posted Wednesday when the Treasury Department announced its plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated debt.

While traders initially cheered Wednesday’s action, the enthusiasm didn’t last long because it doesn’t address the overarching reasons for the rise in yields, said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Muriel Siebert & Co. “It was just a housekeeping move destined to be short-term, at best.”

Bessent played down Thursday’s market moves, saying “anything that happens within a 24-hour period is noise.” He also said the expanded buyback operations “could be more than the $4 billion” size planned to start next month.

“My view is that the ‘Bessent put’ is still going to fail to keep yields down from multi-decade highs over the longer term,” said Hardika Singh at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “Making yields go down over the longer period will require the painful work of bringing down the debt.”

Traders will now look toward Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium next week for clues on the path of interest rates.

In corporate news, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged more than 75% after the Chinese company ratcheted up quarterly capital spending to almost $10 billion, aiming to safeguard its position in a fiercely competitive global AI arena. Anthropic PBC expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.

Corporate Highlights:

Broadcom Inc. is in talks with a group of lenders to raise more than $60 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit Anthropic PBC and other companies, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Super Micro Computer Inc. completed an independent probe into the alleged smuggling of Nvidia Corp. chips into China, with the investigation team concluding the current senior management had no knowledge of the purported scheme. Deere & Co. jumped after the tractor maker said it’s seeing a boost in orders for its machinery, raising hopes that the agriculture sector is poised for recovery.

For a list, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:03 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures were little changed S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 0.3%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1681 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.04 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7242 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7113

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin was little changed at $72,625.49 Ether fell 0.2% to $2,314.4

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $86.31 a barrel Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。