英伟达财报前高预期与六连跌使亚洲AI供应链进入事件风险窗口，但尚无财报结果或新增订单确认

# 美股盘后催化 1/11: 英伟达下周财报成为AI链关键风险事件，市场预期收入和利润近乎同比翻倍但股价六连跌

- 美股会话: 2026-08-21
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 财报/指引；规划重大性: 8/10
- 映射模式: supply_chain
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：Bloomberg称英伟达将在下周三公布财报，市场预计收入和利润几乎同比翻倍，并可能延续连续多个季度的高增长；同时英伟达已六连跌，为2022年以来最长日度连跌。推断：高预期叠加近期AI半导体回撤，使亚洲先进制程、先进封装、AI服务器和光互连链条对财报与指引高度敏感。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker；必须联网核实具体 mover。

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 台积电 (待归一) [TW/供应商/mixed]: 若英伟达财报确认AI加速器需求和先进制程产能拉动，台积电先进节点和先进封装需求预期受益；若指引不及高预期，则估值和订单预期承压。；核验问题: 核实英伟达最新平台在台积电先进节点、CoWoS及相关先进封装产能中的实际占比。
- 日月光投控 (待归一) [TW/供应商/mixed]: AI芯片放量可能传导至封装测试需求，但具体弹性取决于其在HPC先进封装测试中的客户和工艺分工。；核验问题: 核实其AI/HPC先进封装测试订单、客户结构和产能利用率。
- 广达 (待归一) [TW/供应商/mixed]: 英伟达指引若强化AI服务器出货，将支撑ODM服务器链；若资本开支预期被下修，则订单节奏可能承压。；核验问题: 核实其英伟达AI服务器平台出货比例、北美云客户订单和毛利率变化。

## 必答问题

- 英伟达财报是否给出Blackwell或后续平台供需、毛利率、中国收入限制和客户资本开支可见度？
- 亚洲供应链股价是否已经提前反映高预期？

## 原始证据全文（1 条）

### [E0002] Bloomberg TV+ · The Close | 2026-08-21 20:14 UTC | 收盘后
Bloomberg TV+ The Close transcript · 2026-08-21
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/live/us
[15:55:01 ET] Yeah, again, it's something that we need to be aware of when I think about the rise in yields and rates.
[15:55:09 ET] It's driven by stronger than expected economic growth, which is I think what is driving it and what we've seen, and again we're seeing substantial earn.
[15:55:17 ET] In my 28 years, I've never seen the S&P 500 up 30 plus percent like we're going to see this year.
[15:55:25 ET] Given that the increase in rates and yields is really driven by economic growth and earnings growth, I'm okay with it, but we need to make sure.
[15:55:33 ET] That that continues to be the case when we get into a situation where it's driven by inflation and not.
[15:55:41 ET] You know good real growth that could be a challenge jeremiah buckley portfolio manager over at jaice henderson helping us count you down.
[15:55:49 ET] Two those closing bells just about two minutes away with green across the screen on the day red on the week are in global scast.
[15:55:57 ET] closing be bloomloberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage of the US.
[15:56:05 ET] And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
[15:56:13 ET] Sally taking you through to that closing bell it's a global cast car masser joins us from the radio booth look at that.
[15:56:21 ET] today again for ti welcome to our audience across all of our bloomberg platforms Carol master.
[15:56:29 ET] As we parse most crucial moments of the day. That's the end of it. you want to talk about I don't know. Stocks are going to end lower for the week overall' got.
[15:56:37 ET] I'mBy certainly a little bit more of a risk on trade, but it really kind of hides what we've seen in terms of some wicked volatility, especially on the T treasury.
[15:56:45 ET] Out of things this week, a lot of movement around Yeah, and a lot of buying kind of outside of the bond market, perhaps.
[15:56:53 ET] Perhaps to find safety but we are seeing gold higher and bitcoin higher as well today that's right we're just looking for signs of the deba.
[15:57:01 ET] Trade everywhere with capital looking pretty aggressively, rotating out of bonds and into hard assets and structural growth equities as well.
[15:57:09 ET] It was kind of a quiet week when it came to earnings, but of course that's going to change in a few days we get Nvidia on wednesday and then of course the other big.
[15:57:17 ET] carol next week will be that jackson hole symmposium a lot of high expectations there yeah absolutely everybody's going to be listening to we.
[15:57:25 ET] Chair Kevin warsh has to say, do we get more specificity, does he give us some metrics things to watch out in terms of what the F might be doing next' a.
[15:57:33 ET] Yeah, a big question indeed and you know speaking of a big question, i'll just point out for our viewers right now redhead crossing the wire.
[15:57:41 ET] Anthropic the company that we all assume is going to go public soon at a very large valuation that company continues to make moves on the staff.
[15:57:49 ET] Inside the redhead saying that anthropic hires google chip veteran as it pushes into hardware.
[15:57:57 ET] For all of the major indices here in the unit states, so we should point out as carol was pointing out all of the major indices are going to finish the week in the.
[15:58:05 ET] For the day though, the dow adds 500 points or a percent, S&P 500 adds 33 points or four tenths of.
[15:58:13 ET] The nasdaq composite up about the same4 tenths of a percent, the nasdaq 100 of 3 tenths of a percent and the Russell 2000 closing out.
[15:58:21 ET] higher by about9 tenth of 1% all right so ramaine, let's go back over to the s&P 500 you do have a majority of names.
[15:58:29 ET] Higher in today's session, Sally you've got 332 names higher in the S&P 500, 170 lower and one unchanged.
[15:58:37 ET] That is right, we are seeing that healthcare is one of the big drivers today, helped a lot by Moderna and then.
[15:58:45 ET] doing pretty well as well as financials, but information technology and utilities and of course, energy are driving things down.
[15:58:53 ET] Gy, let's get to some individual gainers, if I may, let's go to the number two gainer in the S&P 500. It is the top gainer in.
[15:59:01 ET] S&P for the week overall, I should point out as well up 129% for the week overall, we're talking about Moderna, I mean man, this one has been on.
[15:59:09 ET] Adding another almost 9% in today's session, we saw the stock soar on wenesday, a record move.
[15:59:17 ET] Adding that day alone, about $44 billion in value gave some back yesterday, but again, another move to the upside, a top performer.
[15:59:25 ET] I mentioned in the S&P shares were up, as I said for the week overall, the stock now up more than 400% here to date.
[15:59:33 ET] About 13% of the float is short, lot of numbers, it's just whoa, super prolatives for Moderna excitement, as you know earlier in the week.
[15:59:41 ET] Over a personalized vaccine developed by Moderna and Merrck that reduced the recurrence of melanoma in a large late staged trial, so that helped raise.
[15:59:49 ET] Expectations for treating the deadliest form of skin cancer also taking a look at a body of science when it comes to using the body's only.
[15:59:57 ET] Community to fight different things and different diseases, so that kind of gave it that thinking and that strategy a boost as well.
[16:00:05 ET] Mck also hitting an all time high in today's session as well, that stack up though at the close about 2.4%.
[16:00:13 ET] Let's take a look at retail, a lot of retail earnings coming in your way, Ru stores top in the Nasdaq10 in the NasSdaq, I should say.
[16:00:21 ET] Stock up about 4.4% at the close, the off price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year said.
[16:00:29 ET] Allll strain throughout the second quarter with comp store sales growth supported by both an increase in new customers and higher engagement from existing.
[16:00:37 ET] So those are two pretty strong tailwinds there for the company, and then I'm just going to go over staying in the retail sector, guys, BJs wholesale club.
[16:00:45 ET] Hings sorry Bjs wholesale what's a matter what's the matter now nothing you're going to miss me i'm going to be away for two weeks.
[16:00:53 ET] So get it all in right now are you just away for two weeks now your contract.
[16:01:01 ET] Yeah,,, all right, so BJs is up about 5.6% here rising after the retailer's cup sales and adjusted E for the second quarter.
[16:01:09 ET] top street expectations management also raised its annual earnings guidance, and so that also lifted Cosco, which we saw moving a little bit.
[16:01:17 ET] Higher in the session as well, that name was up about one and a half percent keep in mind that one reports results on septem 24.
[16:01:25 ET] All right, Emily oh yours all right, let's get to the Decrs the memory trade really getting crushed not only today, but kind of for the last.
[16:01:33 ET] Two months micron is the poster child here finishing the day down about7 tenths of 1%, but this stock has been.
[16:01:41 ET] Ripping at least for the first half of the year, it still remains one of the top performers in the S&P 500 year to date but the year.
[16:01:49 ET] Way off their highs, getting crushed today, aleec Young, CIO or chief investment strategist at money flows, which is.
[16:01:57 ET] Quant research firm telling bloomberg the smart money is moving on from that memory trade, the fact that they've given up a lot of their recent balance in just a couple.
[16:02:05 ET] Days shows that there are a lot of weakhand, and we're kind of seeing that with a lot of these chip names as well and V was lower today, so not a lot of fundamental news.
[16:02:13 ET] Right now, but really just kind of the momentum just getting kind of taking the air out of that Boston beer.
[16:02:21 ET] This is a beer company, their brands include truly T tea or T Sam Adams beer you.
[16:02:29 ET] No,You're goingYeah, yeah, you know, all these brands, angry Orchard or insider and dogfish head craft.
[16:02:37 ET] This stock fall closing down about 3% they announced that their chief financial officer will be leaving the company on september 14th to accept.
[16:02:45 ET] A new opportunity the shareholders didn't like that and the analyst didn't as well city said that Diego Renoso's.
[16:02:53 ET] It is a meaningful loss to bo beer given his key role in the company's margin recovery program, so i guess good for.
[16:03:01 ET] but maybe not so good for the shareholders and the company here and then finally ubiquity this stock down yeah.
[16:03:09 ET] let's keep going, keep going, you got this and he's like trying to throw it up by get you know man, I'm going to be with you next sweet, I'm going to get in a moment.
[16:03:17 ET] Because we got to go early and I want to get release the doxins. No, no, no.
[16:03:25 ET] Yes this is important let's get it because when we talk about what's moving up to the top of the leader board, forget modernderna, meck all that doxins.
[16:03:33 ET] up the top of the leader board for the last several years, the number one breed of dog out there has been fren bulldog, but rising up the charts.
[16:03:41 ET] The sleeper, if you will, the Sandisk, the micron of the dog breed world is a doin, it was number five last year.
[16:03:49 ET] After being number 10, just a couple years ago, it could overtake it this year and look at those little legsy, just talk to Veronica and make.
[16:03:57 ET] Man, she's got two, she used to have another one, man, she loves these dogs and they are just adorable, I see them all over on this.
[16:04:05 ET] Stet two as well they've taken the world by storm, they say they're like the perfect city dog, you know, they're small,re relatively quiet.
[16:04:13 ET] Because I love and adore you before I go and I'm heading out on vacation, I just want to make sure the next time you take a vacation if you're thinking about.
[16:04:21 ET] Some skills perhaps remain they now are doing luxury travel trends where you can learn skills that sounds awful.
[16:04:29 ET] I'm just saying if you want to add to your repertoire, rock climbing, I don't know how you do it.
[16:04:37 ET] hey, look, you could learn anchoring and broadcast journalism right I love you you need a do.
[16:04:45 ET] Mis me a lot to get and dogs that is wrap hey, you got work to do on that side hear.
[16:04:53 ET] Ser thetations all right, guys, that is a wrap across the platform from radio, TV, you Emily radio TV.
[16:05:01 ET] Youe bloomberger originals, we do call it the closing bell we have fun as you can see sally and remain continuing there on tv, Emily and i back here.
[16:05:09 ET] Our business week de see on Monday, some of us a relatively quiet day on Wall Street but activity.
[16:05:17 ET] On to pick up in a big way next week with chip makers set to report earnings, including in video, we're going to talk to a legend in the chip space when we come back after.
[16:05:25 ET] Right here on Bloomberg.
[16:05:33 ET] The.
[16:05:41 ET] The.
[16:05:49 ET] The.
[16:05:57 ET] The.
[16:06:05 ET] When you use.
[16:06:13 ET] opens 4.7 and the engineers start using it. They go through a learning process, even how to use it. But as you keep using.
[16:06:21 ET] and you use it long enough. You get very good at it. and then the tools become much more productive and.
[16:06:29 ET] As you get much more productive, just think about it, you can get one very senior engineer to produce.
[16:06:37 ET] An application design in one week, what it would other way take 10 engineers.
[16:06:45 ET] It take them three months to produce the same thing. The return on investment is still pretty compelling. So to say we're trorottling.
[16:06:53 ET] ablyIt's a question of return on investment and what application you're using, but it is it's also been able to be trained.
[16:07:01 ET] to use it West.
[16:07:09 ET] Each week on Wall Street week for stories of capitalism this week, Sam Paul Maano on how a CEO pencils out all that money being invested.
[16:07:17 ET] I special contributor Krista Freeland gives us a Canadian perspective on the Us Canada trade issues, and the Colorado River supports.
[16:07:25 ET] 6 million jobs and is running dry the U.S government has a plan for that situation on the river, it's the worst it's ever been.
[16:07:33 ET] Watch Wall Street Week more than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about.
[16:07:41 ET] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge.
[16:07:49 ET] day this is theWe back to the close the closing.
[16:07:57 ET] Just passed the s&P closing out the day just under 77004 tenths of a percent gain on the day, but still down on the week.
[16:08:05 ET] Similar story for the Philadelphia semiconductor index down on the day and on the week, but the big story all week long was that big bump up that we saw.
[16:08:13 ET] In treasury yields hitting out at 5.3% to start the week and of course some big moves by scott bessant to tamp that down.
[16:08:21 ET] The debasement trade taking over gold rallying up to its highest level that we've seen in some time, about 4,600 in bitcoin now.
[16:08:29 ET] For a third straight week wokeen from its slumber on an individual basis, you take a look at some of the moves here, Robin hood up about4.
[16:08:37 ET] percent here on the day that's the best day that that stock has had going back to february. meanwhile tesla having its best week since may.
[16:08:45 ET] Earlier today, we learned of the new approvals for some of the automated taxis and it wasn't just for Teesla, but also its competitors as well, but still a big.
[16:08:53 ET] Move forward in that front and then keep an eye on some of the chip makers Marveville technology is down on the day, though we should point out it's still on a three week run.
[16:09:01 ET] the weekly gains they report earnings on thurday, but of course, everybody's going to be focused on nvidia they report on weday the shares have actually been.
[16:09:09 ET] On a six day slide, that's the longest losing streak that we've seen for NviIDdia on a daily basis going back to 2022.
[16:09:17 ET] And that does bring us to our top story for the hour, the countdown to the market's next big test, NviDdia earnings, both revenue.
[16:09:25 ET] And profits for the maker of AI chips is projected to almost double from a year ago itll be a 13th straight quarter.
[16:09:33 ET] Of either three digit or high double digit percentage growth for the company. But as AI becomes established as an industry and as in video.
[16:09:41 ET] And for that matter, micron and SK Hyyix become the fattest of fat cash cows, basic microeconomics suggests that extraordinary.
[16:09:49 ET] Growth will attract new en other chip makers like intel and amd are trying to step their games up every hyperscaler out there.
[16:09:57 ET] Google, Microsoft, you name them, they're said to be working on their own proprietary chips and Chinese companies such as Huawei and CxmT.
[16:10:05 ET] They're making advancements in chip development that already has everyone talking our next guest is a pioneer in the semiconductor spacely.
[16:10:13 ET] the board of Intel and previously the dean of UC Berkeley's College of Engineering, she's got a mobile phone in your pocket, you probably got a chip it was that she had a hand.
[16:10:21 ET] Designing Dr. Su J King Lu is now the president of the National Academy of Engineering, and she joins us now doctor. great to have you here on the program.
[16:10:29 ET] I do want to start specifically with NviDA, obviously we know for a while it's been the only game in town for these advanced AI chips, but we should point out AI.
[16:10:37 ET] Chhis are probably only as good as what TSMC can manufacture, and I am curious about what you're seeing right now in that manufacturing space.
[16:10:45 ET] And to whether Nvidia's sort of dominance is indeed set potentially to erode.
[16:10:53 ET] Thank you so much romaine for having me on show again today, it's my pleasure to join you here so indeed, well as context.
[16:11:01 ET] semiconductormiccon industry is seeing historic growth, steady growth due to the generative AI supercycle.
[16:11:09 ET] There's no indication that society, companies and governments are going to back.
[16:11:17 ET] On increasing the usage of AI. And so companies are responding by investing in growing AI computing capacity.
[16:11:25 ET] For both for modeling and inference. so with regard to NviDdia, yes its.
[16:11:33 ET] It's a leader right now in AI accelerating computing chips and it does rely on.
[16:11:41 ET] Edge technology to achieve that market leadership, but I think this.
[16:11:49 ET] And but it's so lucrative, this is why you see other companies really competing for a bigger share in this market and the US isn't.
[16:11:57 ET] ingTo ensure that manufacturing, chip manufacturing, leading edge chip manufacturing is in the United States going forward because it's become.
[16:12:05 ET] Not only critical for economic prosperity, but also for our national security in the long run. I am curious so too, I mean, this whole AI bill.
[16:12:13 ET] And let's just focus on the data centers. it's kind of colliding with this idea of a power grid that's not necessarily ready for at all that seems to be the contrain.
[16:12:21 ET] That everyone talks about, is that something that a we can engineer a way out of with maybe more efficient chips and it's so how close are?
[16:12:29 ET] absolutely well, the solution to this challenge is multifaceted, so one aspect is for researchers.
[16:12:37 ET] The industry to work together and more closely to advance innovations that will dramatically increase the energy efficiency of the computing chips.
[16:12:45 ET] microron announced just this week that they're investing $10 billion in the future for a new research lab.
[16:12:53 ET] to inspired by Bell Labs decades ago to really advance research to ensure that AI can continue.
[16:13:01 ET] grow and we will not run out of electricity. On the other hand, we see people in the industry investing in a greater diversity of energy.
[16:13:09 ET] To be able to supply the electricity needed for all of the to meet all the AI demand. Well I am curious too.
[16:13:17 ET] you knowquipped about how you know if you have a smartphone in your pocket, you probably have a chip that you had your fingerprints on I mean you co inventedvented the Fin set and,
[16:13:25 ET] ranistor and forget my layman' explanation of it, but I do wonder about where the industry is moving on the power side.
[16:13:33 ET] to do this sort of gateit all around and backside power delivery and just this idea of mo's law and whether.
[16:13:41 ET] 's done with, I mean, we've just sort of exhausted that or are we just kind of as it just morphed into something different?
[16:13:49 ET] Well, first of all, I'm impressed that you know these technical terms, you know, the transistors are the miniature switches on these computings.
[16:13:57 ET] And today, the most advanced computing chips manufactured by TSMC for Nvidia do have over 300 billion of these tiny.
[16:14:05 ET] transransistors finishin shape transistors on them. And in the future, the industries has already started to evolve into yet another more advanced transistor design that can.
[16:14:13 ET] That can pack more computational power on a ship. However, the challenge is in the cost to economics. So it will take a while for the.
[16:14:21 ET] The leading edge manufacturing technology to become as cost efficient as the FinFette.
[16:14:29 ET] Tecology, but because of demand, I have no doubt that that will happen and at the same time the pressure on the cost.
[16:14:37 ET] So building a new semiconductor leading edge semiconductor foundry now exceeds over $20 billion, and so that has caused more.
[16:14:45 ET] Innovation to find ways to dramatically lower the cost of chip manufacturing. So I'm very optimistic as an engineer who's.
[16:14:53 ET] De we naturally look for solutions to solve these problems, I'm optimistic that engineering innovations will provide ways.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。