英伟达Q3展望不含中国数据中心芯片销售——系2025年8月H20禁令以来既有状态延续，中国AI替代逻辑无增量催化

# 美股盘后催化 3/11: 英伟达Q3展望不含中国数据中心芯片销售，强化中国AI算力替代逻辑

- 美股会话: 2026-08-26
- 方向: MIXED；类型: 监管/政策；规划重大性: 8/10
- 映射模式: competitive
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：Reuters称英伟达Q3收入展望不包括来自中国的数据中心芯片销售。推断：这限制英伟达中国收入，但可能提升中国本土AI芯片、服务器和算力替代链的相对价值。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker；必须联网核实具体 mover。

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 寒武纪 (待归一) [CN/竞争替代/positive]: 若海外高端GPU对中国数据中心销售继续受限，国产AI加速器替代预期可能升温。；核验问题: 核实其实际出货、客户导入、软件生态和与英伟达受限产品的可替代程度。
- 浪潮信息 (待归一) [CN/供应商/mixed]: 国产算力服务器需求可能受益，但高端GPU供给限制也可能压制部分AI服务器交付。；核验问题: 核实其AI服务器中国产芯片与英伟达芯片占比及订单交付瓶颈。
- 中芯国际 (待归一) [HK/供应商/positive]: 本土AI芯片替代若加速，可能提升国内先进逻辑制造需求，但受制于制程能力。；核验问题: 核实相关AI芯片客户流片、良率和产能约束。

## 必答问题

- 英伟达是否在电话会中说明中国收入恢复条件？
- 中国云厂商是否转向国产芯片或通过合规替代产品采购？

## 原始证据全文（2 条）

### [E0003] Reuters Trading Day | 2026-08-26 21:02 UTC | 收盘后
TRADING DAY Hot inflation cools sentiment
URL: https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-08-26/
The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher and Wall Street treaded water on Wednesday after U.S. inflation figures reminded investors that the Fed could raise interest rates soon. Trading ranges were narrow, however, as investors awaited Nvidia's results and looked ahead to a keynote speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later this week.

If ​you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets ‌today.

1. Nvidia forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates

2. US inflation remains sticky in July; second-quarter GDP growth unrevised at 1.5%

3. Anxious investors hope for clarity on Warsh's Fed plan at Jackson Hole

4. Bill Gates, alarmed by AI, has policy ideas he wants to discuss with China's Xi

5. Meta agrees to pay $18 billion to settle US lawsuits over children's social media addiction

Today's Key Market Moves

STOCKS: South Korea +1%, Japan and China +0.5%; Europe, UK ​and Wall Street all close to flat.

SECTORS/SHARES: Seven sectors on the S&P 500 fall, four rise. Healthcare -1%, industrials +1%. Moderna -5%, Eli Lilly -4%, Honeywell +2.3%.

FX: Dollar +0.3%, biggest rise in 2 ​weeks. Swedish crown -1%, biggest fall in 2 months. Colombian peso eyes worst week since April.

BONDS: U.S. yields rise 1-3 bps, 2s/30s ⁠curve flattest close since July Fed meeting. Reasonable 5-year auction - bid/cover ratio 2.37, highest this year.

COMMODITIES/METALS: U.S. copper futures hit record high $6.75/lb. Oil slips, Brent -1%. Gold -1%. U.S. natgas +3% to 1-month ​high.

Today's Talking Points:

Hotter in July

U.S. inflation as measured by the PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure, came in slightly hotter last month than expected. The 0.2% month-on-month ​increase in headline inflation was above the 0.1% forecast, and the annual rate edged up to 3.7%. The unrounded monthly increase in core was 0.246%, close to 0.3%.

Rate hike expectations barely budged, with traders still pricing in a 60-40 probability of a rise next month. The recent signals of intent from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to lower bond yields at the long end of the ​curve seem to be working, which may explain the bond market's muted reaction. But there's no doubting it — inflation is sticky. Over to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and ​his Jackson Hole address on Friday.

Corporate v. consumer

The second reading of U.S. national accounts released on Wednesday showed that corporate profits as a share of GDP rose to new record ‌highs in ⁠Q2. One measure — there are several ways to slice the data — showed after-tax income increased to 12.1% of GDP. But can consumer spending help maintain those inflated margins?

Spending in Q2 was strong, and it could point to a broader re-acceleration in growth for the second half of the year. But the personal savings rate rose in Q2 to 3.0% from a historically low 2.6%. This is still extremely low, and suggests consumers will have to rely more on credit than savings in the coming months. Inflation-adjusted ​spending was flat in July — will that ​be a brief pause for breath, ⁠or a more lasting lull?

Watching the chips roll in

Nvidia, the $5 trillion chipmaking AI behemoth, released its latest results after the bell on Wednesday. The world's most valuable company reported Q2 revenue and earnings that beat estimates, and its Q3 revenue outlook was ​also brighter than the analyst consensus. Interestingly, its Q3 revenue outlook does not include any data center chip sales from ​China.

But shares fell in ⁠post-market trading, by as much as 3%, because the gross margin is expected to dip to 74% in Q3 from 75% in Q2. Essentially, it is costing Nvidia more to generate these bumper revenues and profits. A one percentage point reduction in margins, especially from such an elevated starting point, seems trifling. But could it mark a top, of sorts?

⁠What could ​move markets tomorrow?

South Korea interest rate decision

U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes at auction

U.S. trade (July)

U.S. weekly ​jobless claims

U.S. earnings, including Marvell Technology, Workday, Dollar General

Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect ​the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

### [E0004] Bloomberg Markets Wrap | 2026-08-26 22:10 UTC | 收盘后
Nasdaq Futures Rise 1% on Nvidia’s Sales Outlook: Markets Wrap
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-26/nasdaq-futures-rise-on-bullish-nvidia-sales-growth-markets-wrap
Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gained after Nvidia Corp. gave a bullish sales outlook, easing concerns that the artificial intelligence spending boom is losing momentum.

Contracts for the US benchmark rose about 1% in early Thursday trading after Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress signaled strong sales growth in fiscal 2028, sending Nvidia shares higher after hours. Asian equity-index futures were mixed, pointing to gains in South Korea and declines in Japan and Australia. An $809 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 fluctuated after the close of regular trading.

Still, caution lingered in bond markets as traders boosted bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year after a key inflation gauge remained above the Fed’s target. Short-dated Treasuries underperformed in the US session and the dollar rose, with money markets fully pricing an increase by December.

Nvidia’s outlook offered fresh evidence that spending on AI infrastructure remains robust, potentially easing concerns that the investment boom is losing steam. The upbeat forecast comes as investors increasingly scrutinize whether heavy AI spending can sustain earnings growth after a volatile stretch for technology stocks.

“We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028,” Kress said during a post-earnings conference call. Analysts have projected an increase of about 45% for that year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nvidia shares had fallen at the start of extended trading after the chipmaker forecast current-period revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. While that topped the $105.2 billion average analyst estimate, some projections exceeded $110 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The shares then reversed course, climbing more than 5% after Nvidia delivered a bullish sales outlook for 2028.

Elsewhere, oil eased in a choppy session as traders weighed progress on diplomatic efforts to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz against fresh risks of a global supply squeeze.

Investors got a fresh read on inflation Wednesday. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year earlier. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat after gains in May and June.

The broader PCE price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Combined with other data pointing to a cooling economy in July, the figures bolstered the case for policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged for now.

Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which begins Friday. Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major speech as Fed chair, giving investors fresh clues on the policy outlook after facing criticism over a lack of clarity on his views about the economy.

“The number of dissenters at the next meeting may grow because the month-over-month readings are getting worse, but we believe enough of the FOMC will want to wait to see more data before making a decision to raise rates next month,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

Corporate Highlights:

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. forecast revenue figures for the full year that exceeded analysts’ estimates, evidence that the cybersecurity industry continues to see demand driven by threats from artificial intelligence. Salesforce Inc. gave an outlook for strong revenue expansion and deepened its partnership with Anthropic PBC, reassuring investors that it can compete successfully in the AI era. Anthropic PBC has agreed to spend $45 billion to rent AI cloud computing power from Nscale’s flagship data center development in West Virginia, the latest move in an effort to secure capacity for its expanding business in advance of going public.

For a list, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 7:08 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures fell 0.2% S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.1654 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.28 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7215 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $78,813.92 Ether rose 1.3% to $2,504.79

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.65% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.885% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 5.03%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $81.83 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,603.51 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。