PCE通胀略高于预期、美元与美债收益率上行，但Nvidia盘后AI展望抵消部分成长股压力

# 美股盘后催化 10/11: PCE通胀略高于预期且核心仍粘，美元和美债收益率上行压制高估值成长股

- 美股会话: 2026-08-26
- 方向: NEGATIVE；类型: 行业数据；规划重大性: 4/10
- 映射模式: macro_context
- 美股驱动（规划器初判，需独立核验）: 事实：PCE headline月率高于预期，年率升至3.7%，核心同比3.3%；美元上涨、美债收益率上行，市场仍定价加息概率。推断：这是估值折现率和风险偏好的负面背景，尤其影响高估值AI、软件和小盘成长，但缺乏单一公司级新订单传导。

## 本催化相关美股真实收盘行情

- 规划器没有给出可取价的美股 ticker；必须联网核实具体 mover。

## 亚太映射假设（仅候选，必须查证）

- 阿里巴巴 (待归一) [HK/同源本地股/mixed]: 美元和美债收益率上行通常压制港股互联网估值，但公司级影响需结合自身基本面。；核验问题: 核实ADR/港股隔夜价差、南向资金和利率敏感度。
- 软银集团 (待归一) [JP/同源本地股/mixed]: AI和成长股估值受折现率影响，同时日元汇率和投资组合beta会放大波动。；核验问题: 核实其主要持仓对美债收益率和AI链的净敞口。

## 必答问题

- Jackson Hole讲话是否改变9月或12月加息定价？
- 亚洲成长股明日是跟随AI利好还是利率压力？

## 原始证据全文（3 条）

### [E0001] CNBC Daily Stock Market Live | 2026-08-26 20:09 UTC | 收盘后
S&P 500 closes little changed as investors weigh sticky inflation and await Nvidia earnings
URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The S&P 500 was relatively unchanged on Wednesday after the latest personal consumption expenditures price index reading revealed that inflation remains elevated.
The broad market index traded around the flatline, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 112 points, or 0.2%.
Meta reached a settlement with state attorneys general over a lawsuit alleging that its social media apps harmed young users. Shares were 1% higher on the day.
The PCE price index — a monthly report detailing changes in prices of goods and services and a closely watched inflation metric by the Federal Reserve — rose more slightly more than expected in July. However, core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, came in as anticipated.
The report comes with the bond market in focus. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Wednesday after falling broadly Tuesday, when the 10-year yield lost almost 8 basis points. Yields hit multi-year highs last week, with the 30-year bond rate reaching levels not seen in nearly 20 years.
Nvidia, Jackson Hole ahead
Nvidia is set to report its earnings for the second quarter on Wednesday after the bell. Wall Street projects earnings per share of $2.09 on $92.28 billion in revenue, according to FactSet.
The report could be a bellwether for the broader market, given the chipmaker is the largest S&P 500 member, with a market cap of more than $5 trillion.
"NVIDIA's earnings, due later today, could create further volatility, with investors looking for a robust earnings beat and forward guidance that signals sustained demand for AI chips," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer of the Americas and global head of equities at UBS.
Investors are also eyeing Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Though, some have noted Warsh could remain tight-lipped ahead of the Fed's monetary policy decision in September.
"If Warsh really succeeds in not giving much direction on things, I think people are going to go, 'What the heck is going on?'" said Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs Investments. However, if Warsh actually offers some perspective there, Fulton thinks he will "probably bring some calm."
"It's not a high conviction market right now," he added. "We need to start seeing some clarity."

### [E0003] Reuters Trading Day | 2026-08-26 21:02 UTC | 收盘后
TRADING DAY Hot inflation cools sentiment
URL: https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-08-26/
The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher and Wall Street treaded water on Wednesday after U.S. inflation figures reminded investors that the Fed could raise interest rates soon. Trading ranges were narrow, however, as investors awaited Nvidia's results and looked ahead to a keynote speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later this week.

If ​you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets ‌today.

1. Nvidia forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates

2. US inflation remains sticky in July; second-quarter GDP growth unrevised at 1.5%

3. Anxious investors hope for clarity on Warsh's Fed plan at Jackson Hole

4. Bill Gates, alarmed by AI, has policy ideas he wants to discuss with China's Xi

5. Meta agrees to pay $18 billion to settle US lawsuits over children's social media addiction

Today's Key Market Moves

STOCKS: South Korea +1%, Japan and China +0.5%; Europe, UK ​and Wall Street all close to flat.

SECTORS/SHARES: Seven sectors on the S&P 500 fall, four rise. Healthcare -1%, industrials +1%. Moderna -5%, Eli Lilly -4%, Honeywell +2.3%.

FX: Dollar +0.3%, biggest rise in 2 ​weeks. Swedish crown -1%, biggest fall in 2 months. Colombian peso eyes worst week since April.

BONDS: U.S. yields rise 1-3 bps, 2s/30s ⁠curve flattest close since July Fed meeting. Reasonable 5-year auction - bid/cover ratio 2.37, highest this year.

COMMODITIES/METALS: U.S. copper futures hit record high $6.75/lb. Oil slips, Brent -1%. Gold -1%. U.S. natgas +3% to 1-month ​high.

Today's Talking Points:

Hotter in July

U.S. inflation as measured by the PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure, came in slightly hotter last month than expected. The 0.2% month-on-month ​increase in headline inflation was above the 0.1% forecast, and the annual rate edged up to 3.7%. The unrounded monthly increase in core was 0.246%, close to 0.3%.

Rate hike expectations barely budged, with traders still pricing in a 60-40 probability of a rise next month. The recent signals of intent from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to lower bond yields at the long end of the ​curve seem to be working, which may explain the bond market's muted reaction. But there's no doubting it — inflation is sticky. Over to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and ​his Jackson Hole address on Friday.

Corporate v. consumer

The second reading of U.S. national accounts released on Wednesday showed that corporate profits as a share of GDP rose to new record ‌highs in ⁠Q2. One measure — there are several ways to slice the data — showed after-tax income increased to 12.1% of GDP. But can consumer spending help maintain those inflated margins?

Spending in Q2 was strong, and it could point to a broader re-acceleration in growth for the second half of the year. But the personal savings rate rose in Q2 to 3.0% from a historically low 2.6%. This is still extremely low, and suggests consumers will have to rely more on credit than savings in the coming months. Inflation-adjusted ​spending was flat in July — will that ​be a brief pause for breath, ⁠or a more lasting lull?

Watching the chips roll in

Nvidia, the $5 trillion chipmaking AI behemoth, released its latest results after the bell on Wednesday. The world's most valuable company reported Q2 revenue and earnings that beat estimates, and its Q3 revenue outlook was ​also brighter than the analyst consensus. Interestingly, its Q3 revenue outlook does not include any data center chip sales from ​China.

But shares fell in ⁠post-market trading, by as much as 3%, because the gross margin is expected to dip to 74% in Q3 from 75% in Q2. Essentially, it is costing Nvidia more to generate these bumper revenues and profits. A one percentage point reduction in margins, especially from such an elevated starting point, seems trifling. But could it mark a top, of sorts?

⁠What could ​move markets tomorrow?

South Korea interest rate decision

U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes at auction

U.S. trade (July)

U.S. weekly ​jobless claims

U.S. earnings, including Marvell Technology, Workday, Dollar General

Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect ​the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

### [E0004] Bloomberg Markets Wrap | 2026-08-26 22:10 UTC | 收盘后
Nasdaq Futures Rise 1% on Nvidia’s Sales Outlook: Markets Wrap
URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-26/nasdaq-futures-rise-on-bullish-nvidia-sales-growth-markets-wrap
Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index gained after Nvidia Corp. gave a bullish sales outlook, easing concerns that the artificial intelligence spending boom is losing momentum.

Contracts for the US benchmark rose about 1% in early Thursday trading after Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress signaled strong sales growth in fiscal 2028, sending Nvidia shares higher after hours. Asian equity-index futures were mixed, pointing to gains in South Korea and declines in Japan and Australia. An $809 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 fluctuated after the close of regular trading.

Still, caution lingered in bond markets as traders boosted bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year after a key inflation gauge remained above the Fed’s target. Short-dated Treasuries underperformed in the US session and the dollar rose, with money markets fully pricing an increase by December.

Nvidia’s outlook offered fresh evidence that spending on AI infrastructure remains robust, potentially easing concerns that the investment boom is losing steam. The upbeat forecast comes as investors increasingly scrutinize whether heavy AI spending can sustain earnings growth after a volatile stretch for technology stocks.

“We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028,” Kress said during a post-earnings conference call. Analysts have projected an increase of about 45% for that year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nvidia shares had fallen at the start of extended trading after the chipmaker forecast current-period revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. While that topped the $105.2 billion average analyst estimate, some projections exceeded $110 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The shares then reversed course, climbing more than 5% after Nvidia delivered a bullish sales outlook for 2028.

Elsewhere, oil eased in a choppy session as traders weighed progress on diplomatic efforts to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz against fresh risks of a global supply squeeze.

Investors got a fresh read on inflation Wednesday. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% from the prior month and 3.3% from a year earlier. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat after gains in May and June.

The broader PCE price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Combined with other data pointing to a cooling economy in July, the figures bolstered the case for policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged for now.

Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which begins Friday. Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major speech as Fed chair, giving investors fresh clues on the policy outlook after facing criticism over a lack of clarity on his views about the economy.

“The number of dissenters at the next meeting may grow because the month-over-month readings are getting worse, but we believe enough of the FOMC will want to wait to see more data before making a decision to raise rates next month,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

Corporate Highlights:

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. forecast revenue figures for the full year that exceeded analysts’ estimates, evidence that the cybersecurity industry continues to see demand driven by threats from artificial intelligence. Salesforce Inc. gave an outlook for strong revenue expansion and deepened its partnership with Anthropic PBC, reassuring investors that it can compete successfully in the AI era. Anthropic PBC has agreed to spend $45 billion to rent AI cloud computing power from Nscale’s flagship data center development in West Virginia, the latest move in an effort to secure capacity for its expanding business in advance of going public.

For a list, click here.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 7:08 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures fell 0.2% S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.1654 The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.28 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7215 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $78,813.92 Ether rose 1.3% to $2,504.79

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.65% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.885% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 5.03%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $81.83 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,603.51 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

## 研究交付要求

这是一条已经从整场材料语义拆出的独立催化，不要重新把它压回大盘总评。核实美股异动原因和传播时序；用结构化供应链、内部 KB 与公司披露坐实每个亚洲候选；逐腿查真实行情和本地市场 price-in；候选不成立也要逐条给出有证据的 AVOID。